Yereny Teus — OGILVIE

Yereny Teus P FCL Rays

+0.2 WAR

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 157 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.8%

IP35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2029

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	DSL Rays	12	10	44	177	50	17	1	19.2%	12.0%	0.9%	2.89	3.49	+0.7
2024	20	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	14	12	54	207	71	17	3	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	2.50	3.59	+0.8
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	11	6	34	151	42	22	1	18.9%	18.2%	1.4%	5.08	4.59	+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	TB	35	—	35	147	34	15	4	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	TB	36	—	36	152	36	14	4	23.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.3
2028	24	MLB	TB	37	—	37	156	38	14	4	24.2%	9.0%	2.8%	4.21	4.14	+0.3
2029	25	MLB	TB	37	—	37	158	39	14	4	24.6%	8.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.08	+0.4
2030	26	MLB	TB	37	—	37	158	39	14	4	24.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.09	4.06	+0.4
2031	27	MLB	TB	37	—	37	157	39	14	4	24.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.08	4.07	+0.4
2032	28	MLB	TB	36	—	36	154	38	14	4	24.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.10	+0.4
2033	29	MLB	TB	36	—	36	151	37	13	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.14	+0.3
2034	30	MLB	TB	35	—	35	146	36	13	4	24.4%	9.0%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+0.3
2035	31	MLB	TB	33	—	33	141	34	13	4	24.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.3
2036	32	MLB	TB	32	—	32	136	32	13	4	23.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.37	+0.2
2037	33	MLB	TB	31	—	31	130	31	12	4	23.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.46	+0.2
2038	34	MLB	TB	29	—	29	123	29	12	4	23.2%	9.7%	3.3%	4.51	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			37	28	131	535	111	70	8	20.7%	13.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.84	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			56	43	200	815	169	107	12	20.7%	13.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.84	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yereny Teus (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.15	24.2%	15.1%	110	-0.26	—	—	—
Ronnie Glenn L 2026 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.04	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.57	3.47	212	88
Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.03	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.12	3.91	101	86
Andrew Mitchell L 2027 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.70	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.05	2.51	119	86
Austin Warner L 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SU	4.02	18.6%	8.1%	2.7%	.291	4.40	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.38	3.83	491	86
Marlon Perez L 2026 · 3.31 FIP	22	SU	3.31	20.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.250	4.12	22.9%	12.2%	103	+0.81	3.31	145	85
Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.82 FIP	22	SU	3.82	20.5%	10.6%	2.0%	.235	3.70	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.12	3.15	442	85
Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	85
Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 4.42 FIP	22	SU	4.42	21.3%	8.8%	3.6%	.208	4.74	16.8%	7.4%	223	+0.32	3.67	331	85
Daniel Zamora L 2027 · 3.56 FIP	23	SU	3.56	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.81	2.15	310	84
Josh Hendrickson L 2025 · 3.81 FIP	21	SU	3.81	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.70	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.89	3.81	255	84
Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 3.83 FIP	22	SU	3.83	20.0%	9.4%	2.2%	.358	4.63	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.80	3.83	197	84
Matt Osterberg L 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SU	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.08	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.20	3.72	294	83
Garvin Alston L 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.72	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.43	4.08	232	83
Zach Morris L 2026 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.35	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.76	3.35	109	82
Tommy Sommer L 2026 · 4.58 FIP	22	SU	4.58	23.9%	9.3%	4.2%	.196	5.35	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.77	4.26	230	82
Jonathan Hennigan L 2026 · 4.03 FIP	22	SU	4.03	22.0%	13.6%	1.9%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.46	3.46	265	82
Josh Simpson L 2027 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.34	33.4%	19.3%	102	-1.21	3.13	220	82
Easton Lucas L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	23.6%	9.2%	3.6%	.316	4.09	21.8%	11.4%	184	-0.17	3.48	311	82
Bryan Magdaleno L 2026 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	23.9%	8.8%	2.1%	.375	4.20	23.1%	1.0%	66	+0.87	3.33	135	81
Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M