Josh Simpson
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 128
ERA4.83
FIP4.94
K%22.9%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p5923.8%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SI (22%)
CU (24%)
FB-1.4 (34%)
CH-2.6 (11%)
SL-3.6 (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 5 | 46 | 200 | 62 | 19 | 6 | 26% | 2.4 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 5.91 | 4.43 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 5 | 46 | 200 | 62 | 19 | 6 | 26% | 2.4 | 31.0% | 9.5% | 21.5% | 3.0% | 5.91 | 3.34 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 112 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.6% | 13.5% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 112 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 40.7% | 12.4% | 28.4% | 1.8% | 3.97 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 39 | 176 | 66 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.1% | 15.4% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 39 | 176 | 66 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 37.5% | 15.3% | 22.2% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 77 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 8.4% | 18.0% | 7.8% | 6.19 | 6.19 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 77 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 5.2% | 6.19 | 5.35 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 65 | 287 | 65 | 33 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 5.26 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 65 | 287 | 65 | 33 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 5.26 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 28 | 0 | 30 | 131 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 3.60 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 70 | 300 | 71 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 23.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 43 | 182 | 71 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 38.9% | 21.2% | 17.7% | 5.0% | 7.00 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 53 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 48 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 45 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 229 | 0 | 237 | 1025 | 227 | 140 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.37 | 4.82 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 192 | 118 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.37 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 7 | 264 | 1149 | 309 | 143 | 32 | 4% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 3.93 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 5 | 200 | 869 | 234 | 108 | 24 | 3% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Simpson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 22.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.19 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 172 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 88 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 84 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 75 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 74 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 73 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 73 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 72 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 72 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 71 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 70 |
| Chris Murphy L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 447 | 70 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 70 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 70 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 21.9% | 13.7% | 1.25 | 5.02 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |