Josh Simpson — OGILVIE

Josh Simpson P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.35

FIP4.42

K%22.6%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SI (22%)

CU (24%)

FB-1.4 (34%)

CH-2.6 (11%)

SL-3.6 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	46	200	62	19	6	26%	2.4	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.91	4.57	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	5	46	200	62	19	6	26%	2.4	31.0%	9.5%	21.5%	3.0%	5.91	3.34	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	68	275	112	34	5	0%	1.4	33.6%	13.5%	20.1%	2.1%	3.97	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	68	275	112	34	5	0%	1.4	40.7%	12.4%	28.4%	1.8%	3.97	2.26	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	39	176	66	27	4	0%	1.4	31.2%	13.2%	18.0%	2.7%	4.42	3.63	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	39	176	66	27	4	0%	1.4	31.2%	13.2%	18.0%	2.7%	4.42	3.63	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	39	176	66	27	4	0%	1.4	37.5%	15.3%	22.2%	2.3%	4.42	3.13	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	7.1%	6.19	5.82	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	7.1%	6.19	5.82	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	13.0%	16.9%	5.2%	6.19	5.35	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.3%	5.26	3.97	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.3%	5.26	3.97	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.1%	5.26	3.82	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	0	38	189	46	24	9	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.7%	11.6%	4.8%	7.82	5.65	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	42	189	53	19	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	1.5%	4.25	3.04	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	42	189	53	19	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	1.5%	4.25	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	SEA	32	0	35	151	43	15	2	0%	1.1	28.5%	9.9%	18.5%	1.3%	3.09	2.68	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	SEA	8	0	7	38	10	4	4	0%	0.9	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	9.82	7.99	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	SEA	8	0	7	38	10	4	4	0%	0.9	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	9.82	7.99	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SEA	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.42	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	SEA	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	48	212	58	22	7	—	—	27.5%	10.4%	17.1%	3.1%	4.26	3.19	+0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	13	54	58	22	7	—	—	108.2%	40.8%	67.4%	12.4%	15.99	5.94	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	58	0	61	258	58	33	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	3.6%	5.09	5.18	-0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	57	242	53	31	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.8%	3.7%	5.20	5.32	-0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	55	0	58	245	55	31	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	3.6%	5.09	5.18	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	50	30	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.9%	8.8%	3.7%	5.20	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	0	156	687	156	88	27	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.9%	5.77	4.96	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	881	200	113	35	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.9%	5.77	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		212	7	277	1207	319	137	33	3%	1.3	26.4%	11.4%	15.1%	2.7%	4.81	3.79	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	5	200	873	231	99	24	3%	1.3	26.4%	11.4%	15.1%	2.7%	4.81	3.79	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Simpson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.4%	13.3%	2.9%	—	5.25	22.0%	9.2%	118	+0.38	—	—	—
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	85
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	85
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	75
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	75
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	74
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	72
Sammy Solís L 2017 · 5.93 FIP	28	SU	5.93	20.9%	11.5%	5.7%	.250	4.27	25.4%	16.0%	62	-1.66	2.51	190	72
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	72
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	72
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	72
Daniel Zamora L 2021 · 5.17 FIP	28	SU	5.17	23.6%	12.5%	4.5%	.357	3.76	21.3%	9.8%	92	-1.41	2.15	310	72
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	71
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	71
Easton Lucas L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	21.1%	7.7%	4.9%	.311	4.14	20.9%	11.2%	169	-0.84	3.43	311	70
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	70
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	70
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.2%	13.0%	1.32	5.03
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64