Josh Simpson

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	14	0	16	6.19	5.35	29.9%	13.0%	—	K 25.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 5.75
2025	27	MIX2 levels	60	2	65	5.26	3.82	22.6%	11.5%	0.6	K 21.2% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.95
2026	28	MIX2 levels	41	0	43	4.40	3.75	28.1%	10.2%	0.4	K 24.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.95
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	38	0	40	4.60	4.58	23.0%	12.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ81% MLB	30	MLBSEA	25	0	26	4.68	4.76	22.3%	12.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ85% MLB	31	MLBSEA	16	0	17	4.83	4.96	21.7%	12.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%59

FB Velo47

xwOBA vs32

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEdward Paredes (age 29) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Clay Rapada (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.60

FIP4.58

K%23.0%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	46	200	62	19	6	26%	2.4	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.91	4.57	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	5	46	200	62	19	6	26%	2.4	31.0%	9.5%	21.5%	3.0%	5.91	3.34	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	68	275	112	34	5	0%	1.4	33.6%	13.5%	20.1%	2.1%	3.97	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	68	275	112	34	5	0%	1.4	40.7%	12.4%	28.4%	1.8%	3.97	2.26	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	39	176	66	27	4	0%	1.4	32.3%	13.2%	19.1%	2.7%	4.42	3.53	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	39	176	66	27	4	0%	1.4	37.5%	15.3%	22.2%	2.3%	4.42	3.13	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	7.1%	6.19	5.75	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	7.1%	6.19	5.75	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	16	77	23	10	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	13.0%	16.9%	5.2%	6.19	5.35	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.3%	5.26	3.95	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.3%	5.26	3.95	+0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	2	65	287	65	33	6	3%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.1%	5.26	3.82	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	43	196	55	20	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	1.4%	4.40	2.95	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	43	196	55	20	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	1.4%	4.40	2.95	+0.8
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	43	196	55	20	6	0%	1.0	28.1%	10.2%	17.9%	3.1%	4.40	3.75	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	0	38	189	46	24	9	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.7%	11.6%	4.8%	7.82	5.65	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	38	0	40	169	39	21	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.3%	10.7%	2.7%	4.60	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	30	0	32	133	30	16	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	19	0	20	85	18	11	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.96	-0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	13	0	13	56	12	7	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	3.4%	5.03	5.18	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	25	14	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	16	9	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.96	-0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	3.4%	5.03	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	0	92	419	96	53	16	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.4%	3.8%	6.04	4.86	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	0	200	906	208	115	35	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.4%	3.8%	6.04	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		213	7	277	1214	326	138	33	3%	1.3	26.9%	11.4%	15.5%	2.7%	4.84	3.75	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	5	200	875	235	100	23	3%	1.3	26.9%	11.4%	15.5%	2.7%	4.84	3.75	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 36 IPFIP 2.67 → 2.95 (+0.28)K% 28.5% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.860	24.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×0.900	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 34 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.13 (+0.22)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.32%	—	×0.860	18.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.56%	—	×0.900	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.90%

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 10 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.75 (+0.87)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	6.00%	÷0.925	×1.100	7.13%

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 34 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.53 (+0.35)K% 37.6% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.58%	—	×0.860	32.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.65%	—	×0.900	13.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 56 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.59 (+0.98)K% 39.9% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.91%	—	×0.810	32.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.00%	—	×1.100	14.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷1.048	×1.200	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 12 IPFIP 0.58 → 1.09 (+0.51)K% 44.2% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.23%	—	×0.880	38.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.050	10.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.032	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 0.58 → 1.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 43 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.57 (+1.05)K% 30.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.53%	—	×0.770	23.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.082	×1.250	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Simpson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.0%	12.3%	2.7%	—	4.91	21.9%	9.4%	65	+0.33	—	—	—
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	75
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	74
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	74
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	74
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	73
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	73
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	72
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	72
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	71
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	71
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	71
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	70
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	70
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	70
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	69
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	69
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	69
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	69
Tim Byrdak L 2005 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	23.7%	15.3%	0.8%	.329	4.31	22.0%	10.7%	100	+0.86	2.85	320	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	31	22.9%	12.7%	1.32	5.46
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*