Lucas Knowles

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAWSH	11	4	25	3.28	2.94	18.0%	10.8%	—	K 14.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.37
2025	27	MIX2 levels	11	0	13	6.08	4.90	17.2%	10.3%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.85
2026	28	MIX2 levels	31	12	100	3.70	3.74	21.2%	6.7%	—	K 16.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.73	4.73	17.1%	7.9%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBLAA	13	0	14	4.80	4.87	17.4%	8.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBLAA	18	0	19	4.92	5.03	17.4%	8.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKyle Hunter (age 28) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Kelvin Marte (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%17.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	2	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	2.0	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	2	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	2.0	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	36	160	42	15	3	18%	2.1	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	1.6%	4.25	3.90	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	36	160	42	15	3	18%	2.1	26.2%	9.4%	16.9%	1.9%	4.25	3.10	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	13	93	369	88	24	9	46%	3.3	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	2.7%	3.19	4.00	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	13	93	369	88	24	9	46%	3.3	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	2.4%	3.19	3.24	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	2	68	296	71	29	10	5%	1.8	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	4.48	4.92	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	2	68	296	71	29	10	5%	1.8	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.4%	4.48	4.20	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.28	3.37	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.28	3.37	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	0.0%	3.28	2.94	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.85	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.85	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.90	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	12	100	416	88	28	12	39%	3.2	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	3.5%	3.70	4.60	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	12	100	416	88	28	12	39%	3.2	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	3.5%	3.70	4.60	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	12	100	416	88	28	12	39%	3.2	21.2%	6.7%	14.4%	2.9%	3.70	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	44	0	46	193	34	16	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	3.3%	4.80	4.87	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAA	36	0	38	159	28	14	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	3.5%	4.92	5.03	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	13	0	14	59	10	5	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	3.3%	4.80	4.87	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAA	18	0	19	80	14	7	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	3.5%	4.92	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	33	139	24	12	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.4%	4.87	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	73	30	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.4%	4.87	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		139	34	339	1424	259	130	41	24%	2.4	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.80	4.31	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	20	200	840	153	76	24	24%	2.4	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.80	4.31	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 55 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.39 (+0.99)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.89%	—	×1.150	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 45 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.85 (+0.69)K% 17.8% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.80%	—	×0.810	14.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.100	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 7 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.24 (+0.83)K% 17.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.810	13.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.963	×1.200	4.30%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 6 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.43 (+1.15)K% 17.2% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.770	13.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.150	15.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.967	×1.250	4.46%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 25 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.37 (+0.43)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.02%	—	×0.810	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.100	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 44 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.09 (+0.66)K% 23.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.76%	—	×0.810	19.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.18%	—	×1.100	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷1.115	×1.200	4.76%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 15 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.45 (+1.17)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.770	22.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.93%	—	×1.150	17.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.913	×1.250	2.04%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 9 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.50 (+0.08)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.058	×1.100	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Knowles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	17.1%	7.9%	3.1%	—	4.94	17.4%	8.9%	83	+0.21	—	—	—
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	81
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	80
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	79
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	78
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	77
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	76
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	76
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	76
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	74
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	74
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	73
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	72
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	71
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	71
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	69
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	69
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	69
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	68
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.3%	8.2%	1.26	4.80
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*