Lucas Knowles
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
+0.2
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.3%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 3 | 36 | 160 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 13 | 93 | 369 | 88 | 24 | 9 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 3.96 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 39 | 2 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 29 | 10 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 11 | 4 | 25 | 111 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 14.6% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 3.28 | 3.37 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 11 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.08 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAA | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 33 | 138 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 28 | — | 28 | 116 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 22 | 244 | 1027 | 200 | 98 | 26 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 4.08 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 18 | 200 | 841 | 164 | 80 | 21 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Knowles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.45 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 28 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 85 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 85 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 82 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 80 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 80 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 79 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 79 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 79 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 78 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 76 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 76 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 76 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 76 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.52 | 3.44 | 522 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.