Lucas Knowles
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%21.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.29 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.60 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 36 | 160 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 18% | 2.1 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 7.6% | 1.4% | 4.25 | 3.79 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 36 | 160 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 18% | 2.1 | 26.2% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 13 | 93 | 369 | 88 | 24 | 9 | 46% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 3.19 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 13 | 93 | 369 | 88 | 24 | 9 | 46% | 3.3 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 3.24 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 2 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 29 | 10 | 5% | 1.8 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.48 | 4.77 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 2 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 29 | 10 | 5% | 1.8 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 11 | 4 | 25 | 111 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 36% | 2.2 | 14.6% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 3.28 | 3.37 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 11 | 4 | 25 | 111 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 36% | 2.2 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 3.28 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 6.08 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 6.08 | 4.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 21 | 6 | 67 | 276 | 68 | 13 | 11 | 29% | 3.2 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 3.49 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 87 | 359 | 86 | 21 | 13 | — | — | 24.0% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 3.7% | 3.70 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.15 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 98 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 28 | 306 | 1284 | 243 | 113 | 38 | 22% | 2.4 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 3.76 | 4.25 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 18 | 200 | 838 | 158 | 74 | 25 | 22% | 2.4 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 3.76 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Knowles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.53 | 21.9% | 12.1% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 77 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 75 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 74 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 73 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 73 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 70 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 69 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 69 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 69 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 69 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 69 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 69 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 68 |
| David Huff L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 68 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 68 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 68 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 68 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 68 |
| Reid Love L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 280 | 68 |