Lucas Knowles — OGILVIE

Lucas Knowles P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	2	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	2.0	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	2	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	2.0	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	36	160	42	15	3	18%	2.1	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	1.6%	4.25	3.90	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	36	160	42	15	3	18%	2.1	26.2%	9.4%	16.9%	1.9%	4.25	3.10	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	13	93	369	88	24	9	46%	3.3	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	2.7%	3.19	4.00	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	13	93	369	88	24	9	46%	3.3	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	2.4%	3.19	3.24	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	2	68	296	71	29	10	5%	1.8	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	4.48	4.92	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	2	68	296	71	29	10	5%	1.8	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	4.48	4.92	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	2	68	296	71	29	10	5%	1.8	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.4%	4.48	4.20	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.28	3.37	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.28	3.37	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	11	4	25	111	20	12	0	36%	2.2	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	0.0%	3.28	2.94	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.85	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.85	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	13	58	10	6	2	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	6.08	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	31	12	100	416	88	28	12	39%	3.2	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	3.5%	3.70	4.60	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	31	12	100	416	88	28	12	39%	3.2	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	3.5%	3.70	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A+ RAW	LAA	17	6	55	225	54	11	7	35%	3.2	24.0%	4.9%	19.1%	3.1%	3.13	3.40	—
2026	28	AA RAW	LAA	14	6	45	191	34	17	5	43%	3.2	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.6%	4.40	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	0	20	84	16	9	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.85	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	99	33	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		139	34	339	1424	259	130	41	24%	2.4	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.80	4.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	20	200	840	153	76	24	24%	2.4	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.80	4.31	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Knowles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.2%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.85	19.4%	8.8%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	72
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	72
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	71
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	70
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	70
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	70
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	69
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	69
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	68
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	68
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	67
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	67
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	67
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	66
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	66
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	66
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	66
Hayden Deal L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	28	SW	4.01	15.7%	11.4%	1.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	420	65