Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 2.2 | 40.0% | 11.4% | 28.6% | 2.9% | 1.00 | 2.74 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 2.2 | 40.0% | 11.4% | 28.6% | 2.9% | 1.00 | 2.77 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 8 | 66 | 269 | 92 | 28 | 3 | 44% | 3.7 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 2.44 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 8 | 66 | 269 | 92 | 28 | 3 | 44% | 3.7 | 34.2% | 10.4% | 23.8% | 1.1% | 2.44 | 2.18 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 97 | 420 | 130 | 46 | 7 | 26% | 2.8 | 24.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 3.99 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 97 | 420 | 130 | 46 | 7 | 26% | 2.8 | 31.0% | 11.0% | 20.0% | 1.7% | 3.99 | 2.78 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 51 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 66 | 39 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 1.40 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 51 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 66 | 39 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.40 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 29 | 0 | 34 | 168 | 29 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.0% | 22.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 6.29 | 4.82 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 29 | 0 | 34 | 168 | 29 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.3% | 20.8% | -3.6% | 0.0% | 6.29 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TB | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 25 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 14.2% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 4.35 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 110 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 18 | 271 | 1170 | 261 | 170 | 13 | 13% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.19 | 3.67 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 13 | 200 | 863 | 193 | 126 | 10 | 13% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.19 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keyshawn Askew (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.3% | 14.2% | 2.1% | — | 4.73 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 29 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 87 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 85 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 83 |
| Russell Smith L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 175 | 82 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 81 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.23 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.02 | 3.14 | 167 | 80 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.0% | .279 | 4.19 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 161 | -0.01 | 3.58 | 307 | 80 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 79 |
| Adam McCreery L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.23 | 20.7% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 207 | 79 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 79 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 78 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 78 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.3% | .289 | 3.65 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 78 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.44 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | 4.82 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.38 | 3.26 | 634 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 0.85 | 4.73 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |