Jordan Woods — OGILVIE

Jordan Woods P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 183 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%17.2%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	30.1%	8.3%	21.8%	2.3%	4.65	2.84	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	1.8%	4.12	4.50	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	1.8%	4.12	4.50	—
2025	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	1.5%	4.12	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	11	75	318	98	27	7	50%	3.4	23.2%	9.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.92	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	11	75	318	98	27	7	50%	3.4	23.2%	9.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	KC	9	4	35	136	54	11	2	44%	3.9	39.7%	8.1%	31.6%	1.5%	1.80	1.58	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	KC	13	7	40	182	44	16	5	54%	3.1	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.7%	5.80	3.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	77	323	60	45	9	100%	6.4	18.6%	14.0%	4.5%	2.8%	5.33	5.24	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	78	331	64	43	9	100%	6.5	19.5%	12.9%	6.5%	2.8%	5.11	5.01	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	336	67	41	9	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.87	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	336	68	41	9	100%	6.1	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.88	4.84	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	78	331	67	40	9	100%	6.5	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	76	321	65	40	9	100%	6.3	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.93	4.96	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	73	307	61	39	9	100%	6.6	19.9%	12.6%	7.4%	3.1%	5.03	5.09	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	288	56	37	9	100%	6.2	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	3.3%	5.17	5.27	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	38	160	30	23	4	100%	6.3	18.6%	14.0%	4.5%	2.6%	5.21	5.12	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	55	232	45	30	6	100%	6.1	19.5%	12.9%	6.5%	2.6%	4.99	4.89	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	65	274	55	34	7	100%	6.5	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.6%	4.83	4.75	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	69	291	59	35	8	100%	6.3	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.76	4.72	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	71	300	61	37	8	100%	6.5	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.6%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	70	296	60	37	8	100%	6.4	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.84	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	68	287	57	36	8	100%	6.2	19.9%	12.6%	7.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	64	270	53	35	8	100%	6.4	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	3.1%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	499	2106	419	265	57	100%	6.3	19.9%	12.6%	7.3%	2.7%	4.89	4.50	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	168	106	23	100%	6.3	19.9%	12.6%	7.3%	2.7%	4.89	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		52	29	170	721	148	85	18	56%	3.3	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.24	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	34	200	850	174	100	21	56%	3.3	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.24	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Woods (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	17.2%	15.8%	2.8%	—	5.04	19.4%	6.3%	235	-0.55	—	—	—
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	83
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	83
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	83
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	82
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	82
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	82
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	79
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	79
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	79
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	79
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	78
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	78
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	77
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	77
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	74	19.6%	12.9%	1.13	5.08
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77