Jordan Woods

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 183 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#918ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKKC	10	9	31	4.65	2.84	30.1%	8.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.51
2025	21	AKC	20	9	63	4.12	3.54	23.3%	12.6%	—	K 17.3% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.50
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	11	75	3.94	2.78	30.8%	8.5%	—	K 23.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.10	5.10	19.9%	13.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	4	4	27	4.82	4.76	20.8%	12.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	6	6	34	4.69	4.63	21.3%	11.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJoe Kemlage (age 23) · Bailey Horn (age 23) · Nate Peterson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%19.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	10	9	31	133	40	11	3	90%	3.1	30.1%	8.3%	21.8%	2.3%	4.65	2.84	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	1.8%	4.12	4.50	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	1.8%	4.12	4.50	—
2025	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	20	9	63	270	63	34	4	45%	3.2	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	1.5%	4.12	3.54	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	75	318	98	27	7	50%	3.4	23.2%	9.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.92	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	75	318	98	27	7	50%	3.4	23.2%	9.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.92	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	75	318	98	27	7	50%	3.4	30.8%	8.5%	22.3%	2.2%	3.94	2.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	13.4%	6.4%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	260	54	32	8	100%	6.2	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.94	4.88	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	51	217	46	25	6	100%	6.4	21.3%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.81	4.75	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	50	212	46	25	6	100%	6.3	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.71	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	49	206	45	24	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.73	4.74	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	46	195	42	23	6	100%	5.8	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	43	180	38	22	6	100%	6.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	27	114	24	14	3	100%	6.8	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	2.7%	4.82	4.76	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	34	144	31	17	4	100%	5.7	21.3%	11.8%	9.6%	2.7%	4.69	4.63	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	40	169	37	20	5	100%	5.7	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	2.7%	4.62	4.59	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	42	177	38	21	5	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.61	4.62	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	41	173	37	20	5	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.66	4.69	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	39	165	35	20	5	100%	6.5	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	3.0%	4.76	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	222	936	201	111	26	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.8%	4.69	4.30	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	100	23	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.8%	4.69	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		52	29	170	721	148	85	18	56%	3.3	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.24	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	34	200	850	174	100	21	56%	3.3	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.24	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 40 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.69 (+1.01)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.770	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×1.150	10.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 35 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.88 (+1.30)K% 39.7% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.71%	—	×0.740	29.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.180	9.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 63 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.50 (+0.96)K% 23.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.740	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.59%	—	×1.180	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 31 IPFIP 2.85 → 4.51 (+1.66)K% 30.1% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.680	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.250	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.949	×1.400	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Woods (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	19.9%	13.4%	2.9%	—	4.79	21.2%	9.3%	163	-0.31	—	—	—
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	87
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	86
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	86
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	86
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	84
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	84
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	84
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	82
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	81
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	81
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	80
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	80
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	79
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	79
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	79
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	78
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	77
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	52	21.1%	12.1%	1.15	4.87
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57