Matt Osterberg P Reading Fightin Phils
Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99109vR 118
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%19.9%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
K: -0.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-1KBB: +0.3 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: -0.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +4.0 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+4STAMTotal WAR: +0.29 (67 IP)+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.2+$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†4550
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202122MIX2 levels832181249138%2.620.2%12.3%7.9%1.7%1.743.89—
202122MIX2 levels832181249138%2.629.6%11.1%18.5%1.2%1.742.71—
202223MIX2 levels2312652795215452%2.814.0%6.5%7.6%1.9%3.183.77—
202223MIX2 levels2312652795215452%2.818.6%5.4%13.3%1.4%3.182.99—
202324MIX2 levels24241234911062513100%5.116.9%5.8%11.1%4.2%3.524.73—
202324MIX2 levels24241234911062513100%5.121.6%5.1%16.5%2.6%3.523.36—
202425MIX2 levels20209241877257100%4.614.8%6.6%8.2%1.6%5.183.59—
202425MIX2 levels20209241877257100%4.618.4%6.0%12.4%1.7%5.183.23—
▸ 2026 Season
202627MLBPHI11116828557238100%6.119.9%7.9%11.9%2.8%4.344.34+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202728MLBPHI11116627756238100%6.020.1%8.2%11.9%2.9%4.394.43+0.2
202829MLBPHI10106326453228100%6.320.1%8.5%11.6%3.1%4.484.55+0.0
202728MLBPHI44251062193100%6.220.1%8.2%11.9%3.0%4.424.46+0.0
202829MLBPHI663514830135100%5.820.1%8.5%11.6%3.1%4.514.58-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—10105925150218100%5.920.1%8.4%11.7%3.1%4.474.15+0.3
/ 200 IP—33332008441687127100%6.020.1%8.4%11.7%3.1%4.474.15+2.9
Career—75593001269200843479%4.015.8%6.6%9.2%2.7%3.844.09+4.6
/ 200 IP—5039200845133562379%4.015.8%6.6%9.2%2.7%3.844.09+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Matt Osterberg (OGILVIE) —— 4.34 19.9%7.9%2.8%— 4.49 20.1%11.7%128 +0.15 ———
Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP 27 SP- 4.53 17.4%8.8%3.3%.311 4.31 17.2%9.9%300 -0.22 3.88 523 78
Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP 27 SP- 4.98 16.2%7.4%4.2%.246 6.63 13.0%0.2%68 +1.65 4.98 179 76
T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP 27 SP- 4.13 16.2%9.2%2.2%.276 — ——— — 3.39 300 76
Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP 27 SP- 4.56 15.4%10.5%2.6%.323 3.78 19.0%9.1%216 -0.78 3.75 324 76
Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP 27 SP- 4.39 17.1%9.1%2.9%.311 — ——— — 3.08 310 76
Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP 27 SP- 3.89 16.3%7.3%2.3%.373 4.65 13.4%4.8%78 +0.76 3.89 160 75
Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP 25 SP- 3.83 15.6%9.5%1.5%.321 — ——— — 3.83 109 75
Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP 27 SP- 5.27 21.7%9.8%5.0%.289 5.37 15.7%5.0%26 +0.10 5.27 128 75
Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP 27 SP- 3.78 14.0%7.9%1.6%.307 4.62 14.4%7.1%106 +0.84 3.06 217 73
Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP 27 SP 3.87 18.0%8.4%2.2%.304 4.45 23.7%14.7%42 +0.58 3.39 291 73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP 24 SP- 4.93 16.0%10.1%3.5%.289 — ——— — 4.93 116 72
Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP 27 SP- 4.84 17.8%10.9%3.4%.275 5.64 17.3%10.5%43 +0.80 2.96 379 71
John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP 27 SP- 4.02 14.3%8.7%1.9%.367 — ——— — 4.02 235 71
James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP 27 SP- 3.80 14.4%8.0%1.6%.300 — ——— — 3.80 129 71
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP 25 SP- 4.77 18.0%10.5%3.4%.274 — ——— — 4.77 154 71
Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP 25 SP- 4.16 14.6%7.5%2.5%.316 — ——— — 4.16 116 71
Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP 27 SP- 4.77 12.6%10.7%2.5%.278 5.20 15.7%5.6%45 +0.43 4.77 118 70
Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP 27 SP 4.90 18.5%11.3%3.5%.319 5.13 14.3%7.9%70 +0.23 4.25 227 70
Taylor Varnell L 2025 · 4.52 FIP 26 SP 4.52 20.1%10.3%3.3%.278 — ——— — 2.89 248 70
Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP 26 SP 4.14 16.8%8.2%2.6%.288 5.94 16.0%9.0%68 +1.80 2.86 282 70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION36520.0%8.2%1.134.40
Josh Winckowski ('24)37718.3%8.2%1.134.21
Jim Johnson ('18)46320.7%8.0%0.904.19
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86
Carlos Torres ('17)37120.1%9.0%0.973.77
Blaine Hardy ('19)55018.6%7.7%1.113.91
Matt Albers ('19)54920.3%8.3%1.374.21