Matt Osterberg — OGILVIE

Matt Osterberg P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%16.8%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	21	81	24	9	1	38%	2.6	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	1.7%	1.74	3.88	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	21	81	24	9	1	38%	2.6	29.6%	11.1%	18.5%	1.2%	1.74	2.71	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	279	52	15	4	52%	2.8	14.0%	6.5%	7.6%	1.9%	3.18	3.77	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	65	279	52	15	4	52%	2.8	18.6%	5.4%	13.3%	1.4%	3.18	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	491	106	25	13	100%	5.1	16.9%	5.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.52	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	491	106	25	13	100%	5.1	16.9%	5.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.52	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	491	106	25	13	100%	5.1	21.6%	5.1%	16.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.36	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	14.8%	6.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.18	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	14.8%	6.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.18	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	18.4%	6.0%	12.4%	1.7%	5.18	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	PHI	1	1	5	21	4	1	1	100%	5.0	16.8%	6.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	66	277	48	20	8	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	63	264	46	20	8	100%	6.3	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	25	106	18	8	3	100%	6.2	17.3%	7.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.66	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	35	148	26	11	5	100%	5.8	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	59	251	44	19	8	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	64	27	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		75	59	300	1269	200	84	32	79%	4.0	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.01	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	845	133	56	22	79%	4.0	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.01	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Osterberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	16.8%	6.8%	2.8%	—	4.59	17.4%	10.1%	128	+0.12	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	77
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	77
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	77
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	75
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	74
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	74
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	73
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	73
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	72
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	72
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	71
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	71
Nick Greenwood L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	27	SP-	4.27	9.3%	4.4%	2.5%	.321	3.71	11.2%	8.3%	112	-0.56	3.71	241	70
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	17.2%	7.2%	1.14	4.52
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97