Matt Osterberg

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX2 levels	23	12	65	3.18	2.99	18.6%	5.4%	—	K 14.0% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.77
2023	24	MIX2 levels	24	24	123	3.52	3.36	21.6%	5.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.42
2024	25	MIX2 levels	20	20	92	5.18	3.23	18.4%	6.0%	—	K 14.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.70
2025	26	No MLB games played
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	1	1	1	4.47	4.47	18.7%	7.7%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBPHI	3	3	17	4.53	4.59	18.9%	8.1%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBPHI	4	4	25	4.65	4.74	18.9%	8.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMatt Tracy (age 28) · T.J. Sikkema (age 26) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%18.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	21	81	24	9	1	38%	2.6	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	1.7%	1.74	3.88	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	21	81	24	9	1	38%	2.6	29.6%	11.1%	18.5%	1.2%	1.74	2.71	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	279	52	15	4	52%	2.8	14.0%	6.5%	7.6%	1.9%	3.18	3.77	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	65	279	52	15	4	52%	2.8	18.6%	5.4%	13.3%	1.4%	3.18	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	491	106	25	13	100%	5.1	16.9%	5.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.52	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	491	106	25	13	100%	5.1	21.6%	5.1%	16.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.36	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	14.8%	6.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.18	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	14.8%	6.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.18	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	92	418	77	25	7	100%	4.6	18.4%	6.0%	12.4%	1.7%	5.18	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	55	234	44	19	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.59	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	49	208	39	18	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.5%	10.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.74	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	17	72	14	6	2	100%	5.7	18.9%	8.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.59	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	25	106	20	9	3	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.5%	10.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	43	180	34	15	6	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.30	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	70	28	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		75	59	300	1269	200	84	32	79%	4.0	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.01	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	845	133	56	22	79%	4.0	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.01	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 88 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.70 (+0.42)K% 18.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.25%	—	×0.810	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.100	6.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.137	×1.200	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 92 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.67 (+1.17)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.54%	—	×0.770	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.14%	—	×1.150	5.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.858	×1.250	3.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 30 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.65 (+0.65)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.810	20.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.96%	—	×1.100	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.050	×1.200	2.83%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 64 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.77 (+0.78)K% 19.0% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.98%	—	×0.740	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.47%	—	×1.180	6.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AClearwater Threshers · 20 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.88 (+1.06)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×1.180	12.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷0.993	×1.300	1.70%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Osterberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.7%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.66	18.9%	10.7%	105	+0.19	—	—	—
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	78
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	77
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	74
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	73
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	73
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	72
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	71
Daniel Camarena L 2021 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	14.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.273	5.73	13.7%	5.9%	121	+1.26	3.76	674	70
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	70
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	70
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	70
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	70
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	69
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	69
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	69
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	69
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	18.8%	8.0%	1.19	4.54
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*