Matt Osterberg
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+1.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%11.9%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 8 | 3 | 21 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 1.74 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 12 | 65 | 279 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 3.18 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 24 | 24 | 123 | 491 | 106 | 25 | 13 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.52 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 20 | 20 | 92 | 418 | 77 | 25 | 7 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 5.18 | 3.72 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 81 | 32 | 11 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 82 | 33 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 80 | 32 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 77 | 31 | 12 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 74 | 31 | 11 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 85 | 360 | 70 | 30 | 11 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 66 | 29 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 68 | 26 | 11 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.55 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 63 | 25 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 52 | 23 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 59 | 300 | 1269 | 200 | 84 | 33 | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 4.04 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 845 | 133 | 56 | 22 | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Osterberg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 284 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 88 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 86 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 86 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 85 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 84 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 84 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 80 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 80 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 79 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 79 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 79 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 79 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 78 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 78 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 78 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 77 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 77 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$8M | ||