Julio Robaina — OGILVIE

Julio Robaina P Columbus Clingstones

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%18.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	11	4	25	118	27	17	1	36%	2.3	15.6%	18.0%	-2.4%	1.2%	6.84	4.72	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	11	4	25	118	27	17	1	36%	2.3	22.9%	14.4%	8.5%	0.8%	6.84	3.50	—
2019	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	35	147	47	20	0	8%	2.9	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	0.0%	2.08	2.72	—
2019	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	35	147	47	20	0	8%	2.9	32.0%	13.6%	18.4%	0.0%	2.08	2.12	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	77	330	88	25	4	53%	4.5	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	9	77	330	88	25	4	53%	4.5	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	1.2%	3.74	2.46	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	17	81	391	84	60	11	74%	3.5	17.4%	16.9%	0.5%	3.2%	6.81	5.55	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	17	81	391	84	60	11	74%	3.5	21.5%	15.3%	6.1%	2.8%	6.81	5.02	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	16	116	492	114	48	6	62%	4.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.0%	1.1%	3.18	3.48	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	16	116	492	114	48	6	62%	4.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.0%	1.1%	3.18	3.48	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	16	116	492	114	48	6	62%	4.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	1.2%	3.18	3.05	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.09	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.3%	5.11	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	16	13	61	255	58	20	5	81%	3.8	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.4%	3.23	3.93	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	16	13	61	255	58	20	5	81%	3.8	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.4%	3.23	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	ATL	16	13	61	255	58	20	5	81%	3.8	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	2.0%	3.23	3.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	62	261	52	23	8	100%	6.2	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.59	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	61	257	52	23	8	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	27	114	23	10	3	100%	6.8	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.59	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	39	165	33	15	5	100%	6.5	20.1%	8.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	66	277	55	24	9	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.22	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	73	27	100%	6.1	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		121	72	463	2036	378	232	44	60%	3.8	18.5%	11.4%	7.2%	2.2%	4.31	4.16	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	879	163	100	19	60%	3.8	18.5%	11.4%	7.2%	2.2%	4.31	4.16	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Robaina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	18.9%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.59	19.9%	11.2%	123	-0.08	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	78
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	77
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	75
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	75
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	75
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	75
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	75
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	74
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	74
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	74
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	74
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	73
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	73
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	73
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	73
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	19.6%	8.8%	1.19	4.62
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43