Julio Robaina

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AAHOU	26	16	116	3.18	3.05	23.2%	9.8%	—	K 18.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.48
2024	23	MIX3 levels	16	12	69	5.11	4.13	21.1%	7.6%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.09
2026	25	AAATL	17	13	63	3.14	3.18	23.1%	7.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.86
2027PROJ	26	MLBATL	1	1	1	4.51	4.51	19.2%	8.4%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBATL	3	3	19	4.52	4.53	19.6%	8.6%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBATL	4	4	28	4.56	4.60	19.8%	8.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsTommy Shirley (age 26) · T.J. Sikkema (age 26) · Ben Holmes (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%19.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	11	4	25	118	27	17	1	36%	2.3	15.6%	18.0%	-2.4%	1.2%	6.84	4.72	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	11	4	25	118	27	17	1	36%	2.3	22.9%	14.4%	8.5%	0.8%	6.84	3.50	—
2019	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	35	147	47	20	0	8%	2.9	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	0.0%	2.08	2.72	—
2019	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	35	147	47	20	0	8%	2.9	32.0%	13.6%	18.4%	0.0%	2.08	2.12	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	77	330	88	25	4	53%	4.5	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	9	77	330	88	25	4	53%	4.5	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	1.2%	3.74	2.46	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	17	81	391	84	60	11	74%	3.5	17.4%	16.9%	0.5%	3.2%	6.81	5.55	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	17	81	391	84	60	11	74%	3.5	21.5%	15.3%	6.1%	2.8%	6.81	5.02	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	16	116	492	114	48	6	62%	4.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.0%	1.1%	3.18	3.48	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	16	116	492	114	48	6	62%	4.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	1.2%	3.18	3.05	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.09	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	12	69	303	64	23	10	75%	4.3	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.3%	5.11	4.13	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	17	13	63	260	60	20	5	76%	3.7	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.3%	3.14	3.86	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	17	13	63	260	60	20	5	76%	3.7	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.3%	3.14	3.86	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Columbus Clingstones	17	13	63	260	60	20	5	76%	3.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	1.9%	3.14	3.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ATL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	51	216	42	18	6	100%	6.4	19.6%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.53	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	48	202	40	18	6	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.60	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	3	3	19	80	16	7	2	100%	6.3	19.6%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.53	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	28	118	23	10	4	100%	7.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.60	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	48	201	40	17	6	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.19	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	168	71	25	100%	6.3	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.19	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		122	72	465	2041	379	232	44	59%	3.8	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	2.1%	4.30	4.15	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	878	163	100	19	59%	3.8	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	2.1%	4.30	4.15	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 63 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.86 (+0.68)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.31%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 62 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.09 (+0.90)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.03%	—	×0.810	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×1.100	7.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.69%	÷0.970	×1.200	4.56%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 5 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.46 (+0.16)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 116 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.48 (+0.43)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.17%	—	×0.810	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.100	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.322	×1.200	1.11%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 81 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.55 (+0.78)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.48%	—	×0.810	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.35%	—	×1.100	16.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.040	×1.200	3.25%

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 45 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.32 (+0.77)K% 24.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.96%	—	×0.740	17.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.180	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.176	×1.300	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 32 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.18 (+0.81)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.07%	—	×1.150	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.131	×1.250	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Astros · 29 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.72 (+1.23)K% 33.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.88%	—	×0.680	23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.250	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Robaina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	19.2%	8.4%	2.9%	—	4.56	19.7%	11.0%	99	+0.05	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	88
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	82
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	79
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	79
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	76
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	76
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	75
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	75
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	74
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	73
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	73
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	73
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	72
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	72
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	72
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.5%	8.6%	1.15	4.53
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*