Julio Robaina
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.2%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Astros | 11 | 4 | 25 | 118 | 27 | 17 | 1 | 15.6% | 18.0% | 1.2% | 6.84 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 18 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 12 | 1 | 35 | 147 | 47 | 20 | 0 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 2.72 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 17 | 9 | 77 | 330 | 88 | 25 | 4 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 1.2% | 3.74 | 3.17 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 23 | 17 | 81 | 391 | 84 | 60 | 11 | 17.4% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 6.81 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 16 | 116 | 492 | 114 | 48 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 3.18 | 3.52 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 16 | 12 | 69 | 303 | 64 | 23 | 10 | 17.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.11 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 67 | 29 | 10 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 69 | 28 | 10 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 69 | 28 | 10 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 68 | 28 | 10 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 66 | 28 | 10 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 26 | 9 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 54 | 25 | 9 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 47 | 24 | 9 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 43 | 23 | 8 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 59 | 402 | 1781 | 331 | 210 | 38 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 29 | 200 | 886 | 165 | 104 | 19 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Robaina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.48 | 21.7% | 12.7% | 224 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 89 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 87 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 87 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 87 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 87 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 86 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 85 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 84 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 83 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 83 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 83 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.45 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.08 | 3.37 | 353 | 83 |
| Brian Clark L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 248 | 82 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 82 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 82 |
| Dylan Lee L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 81 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$5M | ||