Jay Groome
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 262 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Greenville Drive | 11 | 11 | 44 | 199 | 58 | 25 | 6 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 6.70 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 21 | 21 | 97 | 415 | 134 | 36 | 12 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 4.81 | 4.53 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 29 | 27 | 144 | 615 | 140 | 64 | 17 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 3.44 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 30 | 30 | 135 | 669 | 137 | 112 | 25 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 4.0% | 8.55 | 5.98 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 109 | 62 | 16 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 109 | 60 | 16 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 106 | 57 | 16 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 102 | 55 | 16 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 98 | 53 | 15 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 93 | 52 | 15 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 87 | 50 | 15 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 81 | 49 | 15 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 75 | 47 | 14 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 69 | 45 | 14 | 19.3% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 96 | 431 | 1944 | 401 | 262 | 69 | 20.6% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.65 | 5.02 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 45 | 200 | 901 | 186 | 121 | 32 | 20.6% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.65 | 5.02 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Groome (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.91 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 352 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 81 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 80 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 80 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 80 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 79 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 79 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 78 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 78 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 91 | -1.28 | 3.15 | 442 | 77 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 77 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 76 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 75 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 151 | 74 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.06 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.20 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.92 | 379 | 74 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 74 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.09 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.05 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 176 | -0.04 | 3.14 | 564 | 74 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 74 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 74 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 74 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.67 | 3.12 | 691 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $8M | -$3M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.