Jay Groome
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 262 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%21.6%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.4%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | -1.12 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | -0.90 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Greenville Drive | 11 | 11 | 44 | 199 | 58 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 6.70 | 4.20 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Greenville Drive | 11 | 11 | 44 | 199 | 58 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 6.70 | 3.93 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.07 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 97 | 415 | 134 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 4.6% | 4.81 | 4.77 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 97 | 415 | 134 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 32.3% | 8.7% | 23.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 3.06 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 144 | 615 | 140 | 64 | 17 | 93% | 5.0 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.44 | 4.54 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 144 | 615 | 140 | 64 | 17 | 93% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 4.02 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 30 | 30 | 135 | 669 | 137 | 112 | 25 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 8.55 | 5.85 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 30 | 30 | 135 | 669 | 137 | 112 | 25 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 8.55 | 5.97 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 1.7 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.60 | 6.55 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 1.7 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.60 | 6.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 82 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 82 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.94 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 77 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 80 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.60 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 101 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 96 | 431 | 1944 | 401 | 262 | 67 | 98% | 4.4 | 20.6% | 13.5% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 5.65 | 4.96 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 45 | 200 | 901 | 186 | 122 | 31 | 98% | 4.4 | 20.6% | 13.5% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 5.65 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Groome (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.98 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 176 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 78 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 76 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 75 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 451 | 75 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 74 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 74 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 73 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.90 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.13 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 70 | +0.23 | 4.25 | 227 | 72 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 72 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.51 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.82 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 101 | +0.31 | 3.22 | 469 | 71 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 71 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.31 | 19.3% | 13.3% | 3.9% | .312 | 4.63 | 17.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.68 | 3.71 | 484 | 71 |
| Kohl Drake L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 71 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | .270 | 3.75 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.88 | 2.86 | 455 | 71 |
| Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.07 | 26.2% | 15.5% | 4.0% | .207 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 316 | 71 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 70 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 70 |
| Blair Walters L 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.72 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 262 | 69 |
| Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.62 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 231 | 69 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .301 | 3.75 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.60 | 3.14 | 691 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 89 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 1.25 | 4.93 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |