Jacob Heatherly — OGILVIE

Jacob Heatherly P Birmingham Barons

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%23.3%

BB%22.9%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	12	9	40	181	31	20	3	75%	3.3	11.6%	13.8%	-2.2%	2.3%	4.99	5.14	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	12	9	40	181	31	20	3	75%	3.3	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	1.7%	4.99	4.03	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	11	39	184	49	40	3	100%	3.5	18.1%	27.2%	-9.1%	2.3%	5.82	6.27	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	11	39	184	49	40	3	100%	3.5	26.6%	21.7%	4.9%	1.6%	5.82	4.68	—
2019	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	4	4	9	47	10	6	0	100%	2.2	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	0.0%	8.31	2.92	—
2019	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	4	4	9	47	10	6	0	100%	2.2	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	0.0%	8.31	2.87	—
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	3	9	37	9	3	0	60%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	0.0%	5.19	2.07	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	5	3	9	37	9	3	0	60%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	0.0%	5.19	2.06	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	53	238	91	53	1	0%	1.5	28.5%	27.2%	1.3%	0.6%	2.72	4.47	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	53	238	91	53	1	0%	1.5	28.5%	27.2%	1.3%	0.6%	2.72	4.47	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	0	53	238	91	53	1	0%	1.5	38.2%	22.3%	16.0%	0.4%	2.72	2.91	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	27.8%	-5.4%	0.5%	8.06	5.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	27.8%	-5.4%	0.5%	8.06	5.02	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	27.7%	25.2%	2.4%	0.5%	8.06	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	26.5%	28.4%	-1.9%	1.0%	6.26	5.03	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	26.5%	28.4%	-1.9%	1.0%	6.26	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CWS	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	32.8%	25.9%	6.9%	0.9%	6.26	4.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CWS	23	0	24	103	24	22	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	21.8%	1.3%	2.9%	5.81	5.86	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	8	7	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	21.8%	1.3%	2.9%	5.81	5.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	7	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	21.8%	1.3%	2.9%	5.81	5.48	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	183	26	0%	1.1	23.1%	21.8%	1.3%	2.9%	5.81	5.48	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		126	27	213	1009	218	239	12	21%	1.7	21.6%	23.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	5.45	4.93	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	25	200	947	205	224	11	21%	1.7	21.6%	23.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	5.45	4.93	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Heatherly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	23.3%	22.9%	2.7%	—	5.86	23.1%	1.3%	24	-0.02	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	76
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	73
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	72
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	72
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	71
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	70
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	70
Joey Marciano L 2023 · 4.96 FIP	28	SU	4.96	19.3%	17.3%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	330	69
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.52	24.3%	14.8%	157	-2.02	2.96	309	68
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	66
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	66
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	66
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	66
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	66
R.C. Orlan L 2019 · 6.15 FIP	28	SU	6.15	13.8%	19.5%	3.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	1.71	206	65
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	64
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	63
Max Green L 2023 · 4.97 FIP	27	SW	4.97	16.1%	18.8%	1.6%	.405	4.33	15.2%	9.3%	35	-0.64	4.19	169	62
Daniel Zamora L 2021 · 5.17 FIP	28	SU	5.17	23.6%	12.5%	4.5%	.357	3.76	21.3%	9.8%	92	-1.41	2.15	310	61
Ben Braymer L 2022 · 4.98 FIP	28	SU	4.98	17.4%	21.9%	1.1%	.339	6.55	11.5%	1.7%	60	+1.57	3.39	489	60