Jacob Heatherly
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%23.4%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 12 | 9 | 40 | 181 | 31 | 20 | 3 | 75% | 3.3 | 11.6% | 13.8% | -2.2% | 2.3% | 4.99 | 5.14 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 12 | 9 | 40 | 181 | 31 | 20 | 3 | 75% | 3.3 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 4.99 | 4.03 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 11 | 39 | 184 | 49 | 40 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.1% | 27.2% | -9.1% | 2.3% | 5.82 | 6.27 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 11 | 39 | 184 | 49 | 40 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 26.6% | 21.7% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 5.82 | 4.68 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 4 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 8.31 | 2.92 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 4 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 8.31 | 2.87 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 60% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 5.19 | 2.07 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 60% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 5.19 | 2.06 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 91 | 53 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.5% | 27.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.72 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 91 | 53 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 38.2% | 22.3% | 16.0% | 0.4% | 2.72 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 37 | 0 | 41 | 206 | 57 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 27.8% | -5.4% | 0.5% | 8.06 | 5.00 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 37 | 0 | 41 | 206 | 57 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 25.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 8.06 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 21 | 0 | 23 | 116 | 38 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 28.4% | -1.9% | 1.0% | 6.26 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 26 | 108 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 48 | 224 | 63 | 45 | 4 | — | — | 28.2% | 20.3% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 5.49 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.49 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 123 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 27 | 213 | 1009 | 218 | 239 | 12 | 21% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 23.7% | -2.1% | 1.2% | 5.45 | 4.93 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 25 | 200 | 947 | 205 | 224 | 11 | 21% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 23.7% | -2.1% | 1.2% | 5.45 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Heatherly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.87 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 24 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 77 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 77 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 74 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 74 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 74 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 74 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 74 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 74 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 73 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 73 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 73 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 72 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 72 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 72 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 72 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 72 |