Jacob Heatherly
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%9.0%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 12 | 9 | 40 | 181 | 31 | 20 | 3 | 11.6% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 4.99 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 11 | 39 | 184 | 49 | 40 | 3 | 18.1% | 27.2% | 2.3% | 5.82 | 6.27 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 4 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.31 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 36 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 91 | 53 | 1 | 28.5% | 27.2% | 0.6% | 2.72 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 37 | 0 | 41 | 206 | 57 | 52 | 1 | 22.4% | 27.8% | 0.5% | 8.06 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 40 | 176 | 44 | 32 | 4 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 23.2% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 23.1% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 27 | 194 | 915 | 195 | 216 | 11 | 21.4% | 23.6% | 1.2% | 5.29 | 4.94 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 28 | 200 | 943 | 201 | 223 | 11 | 21.4% | 23.6% | 1.2% | 5.29 | 4.94 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Heatherly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.83 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 103 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 81 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 80 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 79 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 78 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 78 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 78 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 77 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 77 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 77 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 77 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 76 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 75 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 75 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.