Jacob Bresnahan — OGILVIE

Jacob Bresnahan P Eugene Emeralds

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%24.4%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$56M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6055

CTRL5550

CMD—50

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$12M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+2.0	$10M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$15M	+1.8	$8M	+$1M
Totals		$36M		$62M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.95	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.95	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	29.0%	11.7%	17.3%	2.3%	5.04	3.42	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	0.5%	2.61	3.03	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	0.5%	2.61	3.03	—
2025	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	32.5%	11.3%	21.3%	0.5%	2.61	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	23	23	115	467	135	45	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.7%	3.22	4.65	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	23	23	115	467	135	45	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.7%	3.22	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	SF	20	20	99	397	118	38	13	100%	4.9	29.7%	9.6%	20.2%	3.3%	2.92	3.60	—
2026	21	AA RAW	SF	3	3	16	70	17	7	1	100%	5.3	24.3%	10.0%	14.3%	1.4%	5.06	3.10	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	SF	2	2	8	32	8	4	1	100%	3.8	24.4%	13.1%	11.2%	2.6%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	122	499	143	49	15	—	—	28.6%	9.9%	18.8%	3.0%	3.30	4.64	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	154	650	163	74	17	100%	5.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.6%	4.34	4.24	+1.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	33	33	175	739	189	77	19	100%	5.3	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.6%	4.17	4.05	+1.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	32	32	179	757	197	74	19	100%	5.6	26.0%	9.7%	16.2%	2.6%	4.03	3.93	+2.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	31	31	180	760	200	71	20	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.3%	16.9%	2.6%	3.93	3.85	+2.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	180	760	201	71	20	100%	6.0	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	2.6%	3.87	3.83	+2.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	177	749	198	70	20	100%	5.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	2.6%	3.87	3.87	+2.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	172	726	191	69	20	100%	5.9	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.95	+1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	164	694	181	67	20	100%	6.1	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.08	+1.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	SF	26	26	154	652	168	65	20	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.1%	4.16	4.26	+1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	608	154	63	20	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	15.0%	3.3%	4.34	4.46	+0.7
2037	32	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	133	562	140	61	20	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	3.5%	4.55	4.69	+0.3
2038	33	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	122	516	126	58	20	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.8%	4.78	4.94	-0.1
2039	34	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	111	470	112	55	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.7%	12.1%	4.1%	5.04	5.21	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	76	321	80	37	8	100%	5.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.4%	4.23	4.13	+0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	128	540	138	56	13	100%	5.3	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.4%	4.06	3.94	+1.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	149	629	163	61	15	100%	5.5	26.0%	9.7%	16.2%	2.4%	3.92	3.82	+1.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	159	671	176	63	16	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.3%	16.9%	2.4%	3.82	3.74	+2.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	164	692	183	64	16	100%	6.1	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	2.4%	3.76	3.72	+2.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	164	692	183	65	17	100%	6.1	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	2.4%	3.76	3.76	+2.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	161	680	179	65	17	100%	6.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.5%	3.81	3.84	+1.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	156	659	172	64	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.96	+1.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	147	621	160	62	18	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.03	4.13	+1.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	137	578	147	60	18	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	15.0%	3.0%	4.20	4.32	+0.7
2037	32	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	127	536	133	58	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	3.3%	4.40	4.54	+0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	116	490	119	55	17	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.78	-0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	101	426	102	50	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.7%	12.1%	3.8%	4.87	5.04	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		305	305	1784	7533	1935	759	206	100%	5.8	25.7%	10.1%	15.6%	2.7%	4.06	3.70	+25.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	85	23	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.1%	15.6%	2.7%	4.06	3.70	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		67	67	281	1167	260	147	29	100%	4.2	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	2.5%	3.52	4.17	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	830	185	104	21	100%	4.2	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	2.5%	3.52	4.17	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Bresnahan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	24.4%	13.1%	2.6%	—	4.07	25.6%	15.1%	508	-0.45	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	90
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	86
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	85
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	85
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	84
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	81
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	81
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	80
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	80
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	80
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	79
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	79
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	79
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	79
Mitchell Parker L 2021 · 4.08 FIP	21	SP	4.08	24.0%	9.8%	3.2%	.354	3.95	21.3%	9.9%	375	-0.13	3.73	694	79
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.7	153	25.6%	10.2%	1.13	4.20
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17