Jacob Bresnahan — OGILVIE

Jacob Bresnahan P Eugene Emeralds

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%24.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6055

CTRL5550

CMD—50

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$15M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.3%	5.04	5.01	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	29.0%	11.7%	17.3%	2.3%	5.04	3.42	—
2025	20	A	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	0.4%	2.61	2.97	—
2025	20	A	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	32.5%	11.3%	21.3%	0.5%	2.61	2.10	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Eugene Emeralds	13	13	60	244	69	28	7	100%	4.6	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	3.6%	3.02	4.90	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	SF	13	13	65	274	67	35	7	100%	5.0	24.4%	12.7%	11.7%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
ROS	21	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.4%	12.7%	11.7%	2.5%	4.40	4.40	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	SF	—	—	124	518	136	63	14	—	—	26.2%	12.1%	14.1%	2.7%	3.77	4.67	+1.1
2026 FULL	21	MLB	SF	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	24.4%	12.7%	11.7%	2.5%	4.40	4.02	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SF	26	26	130	551	138	61	14	100%	5.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.6%	4.29	4.19	+1.8
2028	23	MLB	SF	32	32	169	715	183	72	18	100%	5.3	25.6%	10.1%	15.5%	2.6%	4.13	4.01	+2.8
2029	24	MLB	SF	31	31	175	739	192	70	19	100%	5.6	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	2.6%	4.00	3.90	+3.1
2030	25	MLB	SF	30	30	177	748	196	68	19	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.2%	17.1%	2.6%	3.90	3.83	+3.3
2031	26	MLB	SF	30	30	177	748	198	68	19	100%	5.9	26.5%	9.1%	17.3%	2.6%	3.84	3.81	+3.3
2032	27	MLB	SF	29	29	174	737	195	68	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	9.2%	17.3%	2.6%	3.84	3.84	+3.2
2033	28	MLB	SF	28	28	169	715	188	67	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	9.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.89	3.93	+2.9
2034	29	MLB	SF	27	27	162	683	178	65	20	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	2.9%	3.99	4.06	+2.5
2035	30	MLB	SF	25	25	152	642	165	63	20	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.9%	15.9%	3.1%	4.14	4.23	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	SF	24	24	142	598	152	61	20	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	3.3%	4.32	4.44	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	SF	22	22	131	554	138	59	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.53	4.66	+1.1
2038	33	MLB	SF	20	20	120	508	124	56	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	3.8%	4.76	4.91	+0.7
2039	34	MLB	SF	18	18	110	462	110	53	19	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.6%	12.3%	4.1%	5.02	5.19	+0.3
2027	22	MLB	SF	13	13	64	270	68	30	7	100%	4.9	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.5%	4.23	4.13	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	SF	23	23	124	524	134	53	13	100%	5.4	25.6%	10.1%	15.5%	2.5%	4.07	3.95	+2.1
2029	24	MLB	SF	26	26	145	612	159	58	15	100%	5.6	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	2.5%	3.94	3.84	+2.6
2030	25	MLB	SF	27	27	157	663	174	61	16	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.2%	17.1%	2.5%	3.84	3.77	+3.0
2031	26	MLB	SF	27	27	162	684	181	62	17	100%	6.0	26.5%	9.1%	17.3%	2.5%	3.78	3.75	+3.1
2032	27	MLB	SF	27	27	162	684	181	63	17	100%	6.0	26.5%	9.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.78	3.78	+3.1
2033	28	MLB	SF	26	26	158	667	176	62	17	100%	6.1	26.3%	9.3%	17.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.87	+2.8
2034	29	MLB	SF	26	26	154	650	170	62	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	2.7%	3.93	4.00	+2.5
2035	30	MLB	SF	24	24	144	608	156	60	18	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.9%	15.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.16	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	SF	22	22	135	570	144	58	18	100%	6.1	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	3.2%	4.25	4.37	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	SF	21	21	125	528	131	56	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.45	4.58	+1.2
2038	33	MLB	SF	19	19	114	481	117	53	18	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	3.7%	4.68	4.83	+0.8
2039	34	MLB	SF	16	16	99	418	100	48	16	100%	6.2	23.8%	11.6%	12.3%	3.9%	4.93	5.10	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			297	297	1743	7358	1891	727	208	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	2.8%	4.09	3.73	+34.0
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	217	83	24	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	2.8%	4.09	3.73	+3.9
Career	—			57	57	226	944	208	127	20	100%	4.0	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	2.1%	3.54	4.12	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			50	50	200	834	184	113	18	100%	4.0	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	2.1%	3.54	4.12	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Bresnahan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	24.4%	12.7%	2.6%	—	4.02	25.6%	15.4%	475	-0.44	—	—	—
Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	92
Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	88
Anthony Veneziano L 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	86
Dalton Rogers L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	84
Johnny King L 2025 · 4.22 FIP	20	SP	4.22	23.7%	15.4%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	129	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2028 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	84
Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	84
Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP	3.30	24.1%	9.8%	1.8%	.292	3.29	26.2%	17.0%	211	-0.01	2.52	315	84
Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	82
Jonathan Santucci L 2027 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	22.6%	9.6%	2.1%	.294	3.49	24.7%	11.4%	80	-0.07	3.49	198	82
Brandon Knarr L 2028 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	82
Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	81
John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	81
Kash Mayfield L 2026 · 4.36 FIP	21	SP	4.36	23.3%	11.4%	3.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	109	81
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	81
Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	18.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.289	4.64	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.60	4.01	258	81
Caden Grice L 2027 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	80
Mavis Graves L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP	4.31	21.3%	15.8%	1.8%	.321	5.77	26.2%	12.7%	54	+1.46	3.05	254	80
Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.53	21.0%	12.2%	199	-0.37	3.35	302	80
Andrew Abbott L 2028 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP	3.37	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.94	23.8%	15.7%	468	+0.57	3.37	691	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	149	25.6%	10.0%	1.12	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68