Jacob Bresnahan
P
San Jose Giants
+1.0
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 3.0 · 2031
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%12.1%
IP93
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 19 | 19 | 70 | 300 | 87 | 35 | 7 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 5.00 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 22 | 22 | 93 | 381 | 124 | 43 | 2 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 0.5% | 2.61 | 3.02 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 91 | 44 | 10 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 121 | 50 | 13 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.14 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 26 | 26 | 144 | 609 | 150 | 56 | 16 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.99 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 30 | 30 | 164 | 692 | 173 | 61 | 18 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.90 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 32 | 32 | 178 | 751 | 190 | 65 | 19 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.84 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 32 | 32 | 178 | 751 | 191 | 64 | 19 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +3.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 32 | 32 | 176 | 745 | 190 | 64 | 19 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +2.9 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 187 | 63 | 19 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.86 | +2.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SF | 31 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 182 | 63 | 19 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.90 | +2.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SF | 30 | 30 | 165 | 696 | 175 | 61 | 19 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.97 | +2.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SF | 29 | 29 | 159 | 672 | 167 | 60 | 19 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.04 | +2.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SF | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 159 | 59 | 19 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | SF | 27 | 27 | 146 | 616 | 150 | 57 | 18 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | SF | 25 | 25 | 138 | 585 | 140 | 55 | 18 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 167 | 700 | 155 | 95 | 12 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 3.73 | 3.87 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 53 | 200 | 840 | 186 | 114 | 14 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 3.73 | 3.87 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Bresnahan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.00 | 24.6% | 15.3% | 428 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Will Johnston L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 91 |
| Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.34 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .292 | 2.66 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 139 | -0.68 | 2.56 | 243 | 89 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 89 |
| A.J. Block L 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 89 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 88 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 88 |
| Nick Zwack L 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 86 |
| Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.06 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 2.8% | 193 | +0.55 | 4.02 | 301 | 86 |
| Josh Hader L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.49 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .287 | 3.40 | 31.9% | 20.5% | 307 | -0.09 | 1.34 | 794 | 86 |
| Will Dion L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.12 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 332 | +0.72 | 3.39 | 448 | 85 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .357 | 3.74 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.21 | 3.01 | 453 | 85 |
| Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 85 |
| Gage Jump L 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 85 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.15 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.30 | 3.00 | 373 | 85 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 84 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 84 |
| Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 84 |
| Pete Hansen L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 84 |
| Drew Parrish L 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 84 |
| Mitchell Parker L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .354 | 3.87 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 375 | -0.18 | 3.53 | 655 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.9 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +3.0 | $28M | +$27M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.9 | $28M | +$27M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.8 | $28M | +$22M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.7 | $27M | +$18M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +2.5 | $26M | +$13M |
| Totals | $31M | $163M | +$132M | ||