Jacob Bresnahan

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#80ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	70	5.04	3.42	29.0%	11.7%	—	K 20.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.95
2025	20	ASF	22	22	93	2.61	2.10	32.5%	11.3%	—	K 24.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.03
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	115	3.22	3.51	28.9%	9.6%	—	K 22.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	22	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.62	4.62	23.8%	11.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSF	11	11	58	4.35	4.28	24.4%	10.7%	0.7
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSF	16	16	90	4.22	4.14	24.8%	9.9%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 21, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 70%

CompsAnthony Veneziano (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%23.8%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$46M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	3	3	4	19	3	2	0	100%	1.3	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.95	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.95	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	70	300	87	35	7	100%	3.7	29.0%	11.7%	17.3%	2.3%	5.04	3.42	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	0.5%	2.61	3.03	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	0.5%	2.61	3.03	—
2025	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	22	22	93	381	124	43	2	100%	4.2	32.5%	11.3%	21.3%	0.5%	2.61	2.10	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	467	135	45	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.7%	3.22	4.65	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	467	135	45	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.7%	3.22	4.65	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	115	467	135	45	14	100%	5.0	28.9%	9.6%	19.3%	3.0%	3.22	3.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	117	494	120	53	15	100%	5.3	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+1.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	129	544	135	54	16	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.26	+1.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	129	544	136	52	16	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.24	4.18	+1.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	126	534	134	50	16	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+1.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	124	522	131	50	15	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+1.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	118	499	125	48	15	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+1.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	110	465	115	46	15	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+1.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	100	423	103	43	14	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.2%	14.2%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.9
2036	31	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	90	378	91	40	14	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	+0.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	334	79	37	13	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.9%	12.6%	3.9%	4.88	5.01	+0.4
2038	33	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	69	292	67	33	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	4.2%	5.11	5.26	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	58	245	60	26	7	100%	5.3	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.28	+0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	90	380	94	38	10	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.9%	14.8%	2.7%	4.22	4.14	+1.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	105	443	111	42	12	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.12	4.06	+1.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	111	469	118	44	13	100%	6.2	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.7%	4.07	4.04	+1.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	112	473	119	45	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.07	+1.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	109	460	115	44	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.15	+1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	103	435	108	43	13	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	3.0%	4.21	4.28	+1.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	94	397	97	40	13	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.35	4.45	+0.9
2036	31	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	86	38	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.52	4.64	+0.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	75	35	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	10.9%	12.6%	3.6%	4.72	4.85	+0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	66	279	64	32	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.9%	4.94	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	170	1006	4247	1044	427	127	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.29	3.94	+17.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	85	25	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.29	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		67	67	281	1167	260	147	29	100%	4.2	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	2.5%	3.52	4.17	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	830	185	104	21	100%	4.2	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	2.5%	3.52	4.17	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 99 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.81 (+1.21)K% 29.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.72%	—	×0.770	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.150	11.01%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 16 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.77 (+0.67)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.810	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 93 IPFIP 2.07 → 3.03 (+0.96)K% 32.5% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.55%	—	×0.740	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.180	13.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.358	×1.300	0.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Guardians · 46 IPFIP 1.91 → 3.36 (+1.44)K% 34.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.05%	—	×0.680	23.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.65%	—	×1.250	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷0.984	×1.400	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 24 IPFIP 5.82 → 7.50 (+1.69)K% 20.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.740	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.52%	—	×1.180	19.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.959	×1.300	5.90%

Result: FIP 5.82 → 7.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Bresnahan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.28	24.7%	14.7%	375	-0.34	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	91
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	88
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	87
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	87
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	85
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	85
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	82
Thomas White L 2024 · 3.66 FIP	19	SP	3.66	22.2%	10.8%	1.9%	.332	2.96	29.5%	16.5%	99	-0.70	2.64	195	82
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.12	20.9%	13.1%	278	+0.29	2.92	472	82
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	82
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	82
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.03	23.6%	14.1%	414	-0.05	3.80	626	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.17	24.8%	17.3%	458	-0.74	2.97	580	82
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.19	16.8%	8.7%	321	-0.31	4.12	428	81
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	107	24.5%	10.2%	1.23	4.43
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11