Adam Seminaris — OGILVIE

Adam Seminaris P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 191 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION138 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%15.8%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	83	368	112	26	9	90%	4.2	22.7%	8.3%	14.4%	3.1%	4.86	3.94	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	83	368	112	26	9	90%	4.2	30.4%	7.1%	23.4%	2.4%	4.86	2.75	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	102	439	97	38	7	88%	4.2	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	2.0%	3.54	3.87	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	21	102	439	97	38	7	88%	4.2	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	1.6%	3.54	3.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	62	277	64	25	6	100%	3.9	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	2.4%	5.95	4.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	62	277	64	25	6	100%	3.9	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	2.4%	5.95	4.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	62	277	64	25	6	100%	3.9	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	2.2%	5.95	3.50	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	25	10	75	335	73	23	5	40%	3.0	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	1.5%	6.15	3.39	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	25	10	75	335	73	23	5	40%	3.0	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	1.5%	6.15	3.39	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	25	10	75	335	73	23	5	40%	3.0	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	1.5%	6.15	2.94	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	24	22	125	519	105	36	2	92%	5.2	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	0.6%	3.02	3.00	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	24	22	125	519	105	36	2	92%	5.2	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	0.6%	3.02	3.00	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	24	22	125	519	105	36	2	92%	5.2	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	0.4%	3.02	2.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	138	577	162	30	20	100%	5.3	22.7%	5.7%	17.0%	4.2%	4.03	4.19	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	138	577	162	30	20	100%	5.3	22.7%	5.7%	17.0%	4.2%	4.03	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	PHI	26	26	138	577	162	30	20	100%	5.3	28.1%	5.2%	22.9%	3.5%	4.03	3.29	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PHI	1	1	6	26	4	2	1	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.0%	7.9%	2.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	144	603	166	32	21	—	—	27.6%	5.3%	22.2%	3.4%	4.04	4.19	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	70	295	49	24	6	100%	5.8	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	2.2%	4.30	4.33	+0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	67	282	47	24	7	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.6%	8.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.46	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	63	265	44	24	7	100%	6.3	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.6%	4.54	4.63	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	26	110	18	9	3	100%	6.5	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	2.3%	4.39	4.42	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	37	156	26	13	4	100%	6.2	16.8%	8.6%	8.2%	2.6%	4.50	4.56	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	43	182	30	16	5	100%	6.1	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.8%	4.64	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	106	449	75	39	12	100%	5.9	16.7%	8.6%	8.1%	2.6%	4.53	4.22	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	141	73	23	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.6%	8.1%	2.6%	4.53	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		135	113	585	2515	492	197	59	84%	4.3	19.6%	7.8%	11.7%	2.3%	4.32	3.72	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	859	168	67	20	84%	4.3	19.6%	7.8%	11.7%	2.3%	4.32	3.72	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Seminaris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	15.8%	8.0%	2.0%	—	4.47	16.6%	8.1%	200	+0.23	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	82
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	81
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	80
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	79
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	79
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	79
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	79
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	78
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	78
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	78
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	78
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	78
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	77
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	77
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	77
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	76
Kelvin Marte L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	11.7%	7.8%	1.3%	.273	4.14	16.3%	7.0%	160	+0.32	3.44	360	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	16.4%	8.4%	0.88	4.36
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97