Adam Seminaris
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 191 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%15.8%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 83 | 368 | 112 | 26 | 9 | 90% | 4.2 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 3.90 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 83 | 368 | 112 | 26 | 9 | 90% | 4.2 | 30.4% | 7.1% | 23.4% | 2.4% | 4.86 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 102 | 439 | 97 | 38 | 7 | 88% | 4.2 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 4.00 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 102 | 439 | 97 | 38 | 7 | 88% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 3.54 | 3.21 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 277 | 64 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 5.95 | 3.95 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 277 | 64 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 5.95 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 10 | 75 | 335 | 73 | 23 | 5 | 40% | 3.0 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 1.3% | 6.15 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 10 | 75 | 335 | 73 | 23 | 5 | 40% | 3.0 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 1.5% | 6.15 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 24 | 22 | 125 | 519 | 105 | 36 | 2 | 92% | 5.2 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 3.02 | 3.11 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 24 | 22 | 125 | 519 | 105 | 36 | 2 | 92% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 0.4% | 3.02 | 2.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 16 | 16 | 85 | 345 | 103 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 2.65 | 3.35 | +1.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 154 | 636 | 149 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 23.4% | 6.7% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 3.37 | 3.76 | +2.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.07 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 139 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 103 | 532 | 2283 | 444 | 185 | 45 | 82% | 4.3 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.13 | 3.57 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 39 | 200 | 858 | 167 | 70 | 17 | 82% | 4.3 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.13 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Seminaris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 2.0% | — | 4.42 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 137 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 82 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 80 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 79 |
| Kyle Hald L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 79 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 79 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 78 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 78 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 78 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 78 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 78 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 78 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 77 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 77 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 76 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.80 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 122 | 76 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 76 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 75 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 75 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.96 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 1.6% | .273 | 4.24 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 160 | +0.28 | 3.50 | 360 | 75 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 0.86 | 4.33 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |