Samy Natera Jr.
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 113
ERA4.13
FIP4.13
K%29.1%
BB%15.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p9033.3%
K%
p9035.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.229
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 91 | 397 | 118 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 5.17 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 91 | 397 | 118 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 4.1 | 29.7% | 11.8% | 17.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 40% | 3.0 | 31.3% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.94 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 40% | 3.0 | 40.7% | 10.2% | 30.5% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 85 | 42 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 16.9% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 2.84 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 85 | 42 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.3% | 16.9% | 17.3% | 2.0% | 2.84 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 32 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 66 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.0% | 14.2% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 3.00 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 55 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 54 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 90 | 378 | 121 | 55 | 11 | — | — | 31.9% | 14.5% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.56 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 60 | 251 | 121 | 55 | 11 | — | — | 48.0% | 21.8% | 26.2% | 4.5% | 5.36 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 71 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 68 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 64 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 68 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 64 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 60 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 0 | 221 | 930 | 269 | 135 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.01 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 244 | 122 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 108 | 24 | 208 | 894 | 238 | 128 | 27 | 22% | 1.9 | 26.6% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.36 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 23 | 200 | 861 | 229 | 124 | 26 | 22% | 1.9 | 26.6% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samy Natera Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 28.1% | 15.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.48 | 28.3% | 13.8% | 170 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 85 |
| Riley Martin L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 28.8% | 16.6% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 27.0% | 12.9% | 64 | -0.55 | 3.35 | 266 | 79 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .288 | 4.80 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 56 | +0.84 | 3.96 | 265 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 77 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 77 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.06 | 28.9% | 17.5% | 2.1% | .253 | 3.78 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 34 | -0.28 | 2.83 | 271 | 77 |
| Erik Rivera L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 77 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 171 | 77 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .339 | 3.78 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.30 | 101 | 76 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.06 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.80 | 3.06 | 145 | 74 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 74 |
| Clayton Andrews L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .269 | 5.30 | 22.8% | 2.4% | 25 | +1.58 | 3.13 | 168 | 74 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 122 | 74 |
| Jace Fry L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.33 | 29.4% | 17.4% | 90 | -0.98 | 2.51 | 294 | 74 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.07 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .337 | 4.52 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 77 | +0.45 | 3.54 | 364 | 73 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .302 | 3.75 | 24.1% | 13.2% | 82 | -0.17 | 2.22 | 486 | 73 |
| Reymin Guduan L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 29.8% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .328 | 3.71 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 74 | +0.02 | 3.63 | 268 | 72 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 1.1% | .278 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 55 | -0.12 | 2.50 | 185 | 71 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 28.3% | 14.7% | 1.09 | 4.47 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |