Samy Natera Jr. — OGILVIE

Samy Natera Jr. P Los Angeles Angels

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%29.9%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL4545

CMD3040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9035.7%

p9036.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.246

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	91	397	118	47	14	100%	4.1	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	4.2%	4.76	5.14	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	91	397	118	47	14	100%	4.1	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	4.2%	4.76	5.14	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	91	397	118	47	14	100%	4.1	29.7%	11.8%	17.9%	3.5%	4.76	4.06	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	2	15	59	24	6	0	40%	3.0	31.3%	11.7%	19.6%	0.0%	0.60	1.94	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	2	15	59	24	6	0	40%	3.0	31.3%	11.7%	19.6%	0.0%	0.60	1.94	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	2	15	59	24	6	0	40%	3.0	40.7%	10.2%	30.5%	0.0%	0.60	1.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	248	85	42	5	0%	1.2	27.3%	16.9%	10.4%	1.7%	2.84	3.89	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	248	85	42	5	0%	1.2	27.3%	16.9%	10.4%	1.7%	2.84	3.89	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	248	85	42	5	0%	1.2	34.3%	16.9%	17.3%	2.0%	2.84	3.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	0	32	131	48	13	1	0%	1.1	36.6%	9.9%	26.7%	0.8%	3.13	1.71	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	50	0	64	266	93	32	6	0%	1.3	32.6%	11.3%	21.4%	2.5%	2.97	3.15	+1.1
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	50	0	64	266	93	32	6	0%	1.3	32.6%	11.3%	21.4%	2.5%	2.97	3.15	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	LAA	2	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	LAA	20	0	30	128	44	18	5	0%	1.5	34.4%	14.1%	20.3%	3.9%	3.00	4.12	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	LAA	28	0	32	131	48	13	1	0%	1.1	36.6%	9.9%	26.7%	0.8%	3.13	1.68	+1.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	LAA	28	0	32	131	48	13	1	0%	1.1	36.6%	9.9%	26.7%	0.8%	3.13	1.68	+1.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAA	5	0	5	23	7	3	1	0%	1.1	29.9%	14.7%	15.2%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	LAA	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	29.9%	14.7%	15.2%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	69	289	100	35	7	—	—	34.6%	12.2%	22.3%	2.3%	3.04	3.21	+1.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	37	156	100	35	7	—	—	63.8%	22.6%	41.2%	4.2%	5.67	2.90	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAA	59	0	62	260	78	36	6	0%	1.0	29.9%	13.9%	16.0%	2.4%	4.04	4.06	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	57	0	60	252	74	35	7	0%	1.0	29.3%	13.7%	15.6%	2.6%	4.12	4.16	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAA	55	0	58	245	73	34	6	0%	1.1	29.9%	13.9%	16.0%	2.4%	4.04	4.06	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	54	0	57	241	71	33	6	0%	1.1	29.3%	13.7%	15.6%	2.6%	4.12	4.16	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	0	152	640	199	83	14	0%	1.1	31.1%	13.0%	18.0%	2.2%	3.88	3.32	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	841	261	109	18	0%	1.1	31.1%	13.0%	18.0%	2.2%	3.88	3.32	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		126	24	226	970	264	132	28	19%	1.8	27.2%	13.6%	13.6%	2.8%	3.50	4.08	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	21	200	857	233	116	24	19%	1.8	27.2%	13.6%	13.6%	2.8%	3.50	4.08	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samy Natera Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	28.1%	16.0%	2.7%	—	4.11	29.6%	15.8%	121	-0.53	—	—	—
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	83
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	80
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	78
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	77
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	77
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	76
Thomas Burrows L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	26	SU	4.06	28.9%	17.5%	2.2%	.253	3.75	23.1%	15.0%	34	-0.31	2.67	271	75
Riley Martin L 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SU	4.14	28.9%	16.6%	2.5%	.366	3.55	26.3%	13.2%	124	-0.59	3.30	266	75
Ryan O'Rourke L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	27.4%	12.9%	2.6%	.284	3.05	23.4%	16.7%	53	-0.80	3.05	145	74
Justin King L 2023 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	29.7%	19.7%	0.9%	.361	3.83	24.7%	8.9%	100	+0.27	3.26	130	74
Reymin Guduan L 2018 · 3.62 FIP	26	SU	3.62	29.8%	13.7%	2.4%	.328	3.68	18.4%	7.5%	74	+0.06	3.60	268	73
Reagan Todd L 2022 · 3.82 FIP	26	SU	3.82	25.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	122	73
Williams Jerez L 2018 · 3.99 FIP	26	SU	3.99	25.0%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.51	21.7%	13.4%	77	+0.52	3.58	364	73
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SU	4.33	26.3%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.42	3.91	148	72
Austin Davis L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	25.1%	11.3%	2.5%	.302	3.77	24.1%	13.2%	82	-0.03	2.19	486	71
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	71
Jace Fry L 2019 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	27.1%	15.9%	2.7%	.272	3.41	29.4%	17.4%	90	-0.93	2.53	294	71
Jack Dreyer L 2023 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	26.8%	18.2%	0.6%	.279	2.77	26.2%	20.0%	192	-0.69	2.53	247	71
Clayton Andrews L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	25.8%	11.3%	2.0%	.269	5.10	21.5%	4.0%	25	+1.62	3.17	168	71
Bennett Sousa L 2021 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	29.9%	10.9%	3.6%	.294	3.98	22.5%	13.1%	67	+0.06	2.59	275	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	29.1%	14.5%	1.00	4.26
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10