Samy Natera Jr.
P
Salt Lake Bees
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.9%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%12.7%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
OFP—40
STUF5060
CMD3040
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 22 | 22 | 91 | 397 | 118 | 47 | 14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 31.3% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.94 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 49 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 85 | 42 | 5 | 27.3% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 2.84 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 6 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 26.4% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 45 | 196 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 4.23 | 3.43 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 26.2% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 25.9% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 25.4% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 25.1% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 24 | 173 | 751 | 189 | 109 | 24 | 25.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 4.55 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 28 | 200 | 870 | 219 | 126 | 28 | 25.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samy Natera Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 26.4% | 13.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.44 | 25.9% | 13.4% | 103 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 90 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 85 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 85 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 83 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .339 | 3.72 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | -0.00 | 3.13 | 101 | 83 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 82 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 82 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 80 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 80 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Edward Paredes L 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 79 |
| Ty Damron L 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 25.7% | 12.7% | 1.3% | .191 | 5.37 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 206 | +2.09 | 3.28 | 346 | 78 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 78 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 78 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .301 | 4.74 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +1.08 | 3.66 | 330 | 78 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 78 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 77 |
| Eric Torres L 2024 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 29.5% | 13.8% | 1.6% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 134 | 77 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 1.3% | .278 | 2.90 | 27.5% | 15.4% | 25 | -0.86 | 2.50 | 155 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.