Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 18 | 91 | 407 | 96 | 48 | 10 | 82% | 4.1 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 5.25 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 18 | 91 | 407 | 96 | 48 | 10 | 82% | 4.1 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 115 | 482 | 121 | 42 | 4 | 69% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 1.4% | 3.53 | 3.47 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 115 | 482 | 121 | 42 | 4 | 69% | 4.4 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 16.4% | 0.8% | 3.53 | 2.54 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 12 | 51 | 208 | 39 | 21 | 2 | 92% | 3.9 | 11.6% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.38 | 4.58 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 12 | 51 | 208 | 39 | 21 | 2 | 92% | 3.9 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 1.0% | 3.38 | 3.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 10 | 10 | 37 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 76 | 319 | 59 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 6 | 38 | 162 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 18 | 74 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.14 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 80 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 58 | 293 | 1254 | 211 | 144 | 29 | 82% | 4.1 | 16.9% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 855 | 144 | 98 | 20 | 82% | 4.1 | 16.9% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dominic Perachi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.52 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 38 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 76 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 75 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2027 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 75 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 141 | 75 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 74 |
| Matt Portland L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 74 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 74 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .295 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 66 | +0.79 | 3.28 | 297 | 73 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.97 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 245 | 73 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.87 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 162 | +0.01 | 3.39 | 261 | 72 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 72 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 72 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 72 |
| Mike Minor L 2029 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 72 |
| Emmett Olson L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 137 | 72 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 72 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 72 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.54 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 45 | -0.46 | 3.65 | 328 | 72 |
| Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 72 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .313 | 6.01 | 15.5% | 3.8% | 53 | +2.59 | 3.42 | 205 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 1.04 | 4.55 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |