Frank Mozzicato
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2030
ERA5.57
FIP5.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.0%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%3.3%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 19 | 19 | 69 | 306 | 89 | 51 | 6 | 21.5% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 4.30 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 21 | 21 | 93 | 413 | 130 | 67 | 12 | 23.6% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 22 | 102 | 427 | 91 | 62 | 9 | 16.4% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 24 | 20 | 93 | 419 | 85 | 75 | 12 | 16.1% | 20.0% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 3 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 77 | 63 | 13 | 19.0% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 106 | 451 | 89 | 70 | 14 | 19.7% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 5.43 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 97 | 65 | 15 | 20.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 5.28 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 112 | 65 | 16 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 120 | 67 | 17 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 123 | 68 | 18 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 122 | 69 | 18 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 119 | 67 | 18 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 114 | 66 | 18 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 109 | 64 | 17 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 62 | 17 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 97 | 61 | 17 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 90 | 58 | 16 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 84 | 56 | 16 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 5.42 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 76 | 53 | 15 | 18.8% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 85 | 367 | 1612 | 313 | 300 | 48 | 19.4% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 5.45 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 46 | 200 | 878 | 170 | 163 | 26 | 19.4% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 5.45 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frank Mozzicato (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.57 | 19.0% | 15.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.98 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 376 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 86 |
| Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.43 | 21.9% | 16.9% | 3.7% | .304 | 4.60 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 210 | -0.83 | 4.25 | 414 | 86 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.5% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 239 | 84 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .316 | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.22 | 2.86 | 305 | 83 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 81 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 81 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 80 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.01 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .335 | 4.33 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 162 | -0.68 | 3.37 | 470 | 80 |
| Herick Hernandez L 2024 · 6.07 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.07 | 22.1% | 17.7% | 4.7% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 6.07 | 103 | 80 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.21 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .299 | 5.17 | 20.3% | 1.7% | 53 | -0.04 | 3.45 | 325 | 80 |
| Brett Adcock L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.32 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 301 | 80 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 78 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 3.3% | .412 | 4.48 | 18.3% | 4.3% | 208 | -0.36 | 3.78 | 378 | 77 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.87 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 332 | 77 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.32 | 3.66 | 330 | 77 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 75 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2024 · 6.38 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.38 | 17.4% | 23.2% | 3.3% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 233 | 75 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 223 | 74 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$10M | ||