Frank Mozzicato P Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.0 WAR
Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030
ERA5.57
FIP5.57
xFIP
SIERA
K%19.0%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%3.3%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2030
K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202219AColumbia Fireflies1919693068951621.5%19.7%2.3%4.305.04-0.0
202320A+Quad Cities River Bandits212193413130671223.6%18.9%3.5%4.655.41-0.2
202421A+Quad Cities River Bandits22221024279162916.4%16.7%2.8%3.455.34-0.1
202522AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals24209341985751216.1%20.0%3.2%5.036.05-0.9
▸ 2026 Season
202623AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals33114712714.22
ROS23MLBKC17179640477631319.0%15.7%3.1%5.575.57-0.3
2026 Total23MLBKC10645189701419.7%15.6%3.0%5.435.01+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202724MLBKC212111448197651520.2%13.5%3.1%5.285.17+0.2
202825MLBKC2323127538112651620.8%12.1%3.1%5.054.93+0.5
202926MLBKC2424134567120671721.1%11.8%3.0%4.934.88+0.6
203027MLBKC2525137580123681821.1%11.8%3.1%4.884.87+0.7
203128MLBKC2525137580122691821.1%11.8%3.1%4.894.90+0.6
203229MLBKC2424134567119671820.9%11.9%3.1%4.924.94+0.5
203330MLBKC2424130550114661820.8%12.0%3.2%4.975.00+0.4
203431MLBKC2323126530109641720.5%12.1%3.3%5.035.08+0.3
203532MLBKC2222121509103621720.2%12.3%3.3%5.115.16+0.2
203633MLBKC212111548697611719.9%12.4%3.4%5.205.26+0.1
203734MLBKC202010946290581619.6%12.7%3.5%5.305.37-0.1
203835MLBKC191910343584561619.2%12.9%3.6%5.425.49-0.2
203936MLBKC18189640776531518.8%13.1%3.8%5.545.63-0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career898536716123133004819.4%18.6%3.0%4.345.45-0.6
/ 200 IP48462008781701632619.4%18.6%3.0%4.345.45-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Frank Mozzicato (OGILVIE) 5.57 19.0%15.7%3.1% 4.98 20.7%8.3%376 -0.59
Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.11 FIP 23 SP- 5.11 14.7%14.8%2.5%.328 5.60 15.2%-2.7%66 +0.49 5.11 165 86
Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.43 FIP 23 SP- 5.43 21.9%16.9%3.7%.304 4.60 20.9%9.2%210 -0.83 4.25 414 86
Jagger Haynes L 2025 · 5.41 FIP 22 SP- 5.41 18.5%15.4%3.5%.265 4.27 239 84
Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP 23 SP- 5.14 18.5%12.7%3.6%.284 5.14 101 84
Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP 23 SP- 4.67 16.6%13.9%2.2%.316 3.45 23.8%11.5%66 -1.22 2.86 305 83
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP 21 SP- 5.08 17.2%12.3%3.4%.287 5.08 104 81
Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP 23 SP- 4.86 22.6%13.6%3.5%.299 4.17 19.9%10.8%158 -0.69 4.10 256 81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP 22 SP- 5.04 15.2%12.0%3.1%.268 5.04 105 80
Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.01 FIP 23 SP- 5.01 14.5%16.2%2.0%.335 4.33 19.3%4.5%162 -0.68 3.37 470 80
Herick Hernandez L 2024 · 6.07 FIP 21 SP- 6.07 22.1%17.7%4.7%.239 6.07 103 80
Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP 23 SP- 5.21 18.7%12.6%3.8%.299 5.17 20.3%1.7%53 -0.04 3.45 325 80
Brett Adcock L 2026 · 5.32 FIP 23 SP- 5.32 17.4%13.6%3.6%.295 4.02 301 80
Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP 23 SP- 5.14 22.9%13.3%4.2%.294 3.42 28.3%12.6%63 -1.72 1.94 146 78
Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.84 FIP 23 SP- 4.84 19.6%12.5%3.3%.412 4.48 18.3%4.3%208 -0.36 3.78 378 77
John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.13 FIP 23 SP- 5.13 18.2%11.9%3.8%.252 4.87 17.9%3.8%113 -0.26 3.19 332 77
Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.63 FIP 23 SP- 4.63 12.3%13.0%1.7%.304 4.31 18.0%6.8%159 -0.32 3.66 330 77
Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.06 FIP 23 SP- 5.06 13.5%10.7%3.2%.315 6.31 13.7%-3.8%140 +1.25 5.06 250 75
Jackson Humphries L 2024 · 6.38 FIP 21 SP- 6.38 17.4%23.2%3.3%.240 4.39 233 75
Matt Wilkinson L 2025 · 4.84 FIP 22 SP- 4.84 20.2%11.6%3.6%.312 3.21 223 74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP 24 SP- 5.02 16.0%10.1%3.6%.289 5.02 116 74

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Arb-1$0.8M+0.6$3M+$2M
2030Arb-2$0.9M+0.7$3M+$2M
2031Arb-3$0.9M+0.6$3M+$2M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.6M+0.5$2M+$2M
2033Ext / FA-deal$0.7M+0.4$2M+$1M
2034Ext / FA-deal$0.6M+0.3$2M+$0.9M
Totals $5M $14M +$10M