Frank Mozzicato

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+KC	22	22	102	3.45	4.29	21.3%	14.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 5.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	20	93	5.03	5.37	20.3%	17.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 20.0% · FIP 6.06
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	37	11	72	8.04	5.95	27.5%	20.4%	—	K 22.3% · BB 22.4% · FIP 6.67
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	1	1	2	6.30	6.30	19.5%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	7	7	39	5.92	5.80	20.3%	17.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	9	9	53	5.72	5.66	20.8%	16.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsSeth Lonsway (age 24) · Larson Kindreich (age 24) · Doug Davis (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 153

ERA6.30

FIP6.30

K%19.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.5%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	19	19	69	306	89	51	6	100%	3.6	21.5%	19.7%	1.9%	2.2%	4.30	5.00	—
2022	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	19	19	69	306	89	51	6	100%	3.6	29.1%	16.7%	12.4%	2.0%	4.30	3.87	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	93	413	130	67	12	100%	4.4	23.6%	18.9%	4.7%	3.5%	4.65	5.42	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	93	413	130	67	12	100%	4.4	31.5%	16.2%	15.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.14	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	16.4%	16.7%	-0.3%	2.7%	3.45	5.34	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	16.4%	16.7%	-0.3%	2.7%	3.45	5.34	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	21.3%	14.5%	6.8%	2.1%	3.45	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	3.3%	5.03	6.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	3.3%	5.03	6.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	20.3%	17.9%	2.4%	2.9%	5.03	5.37	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	22.3%	22.4%	-0.2%	4.8%	8.04	6.67	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	22.3%	22.4%	-0.2%	4.8%	8.04	6.67	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	27.5%	20.4%	7.1%	4.0%	8.04	5.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	1	1	2	8	2	2	0	100%	2.0	19.5%	20.0%	-0.5%	3.5%	6.30	6.30	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	377	77	64	13	100%	6.0	20.3%	17.0%	3.4%	3.4%	5.92	5.80	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	336	70	54	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.72	5.66	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	75	316	66	50	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	15.9%	4.9%	3.4%	5.63	5.62	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	71	299	62	47	11	100%	5.9	20.7%	15.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.64	5.67	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	66	278	57	45	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.7%	5.74	5.81	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	60	255	51	42	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	16.4%	3.8%	3.9%	5.89	5.98	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	39	165	33	28	6	100%	5.6	20.3%	17.0%	3.4%	3.4%	5.92	5.80	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	53	224	46	36	8	100%	5.9	20.8%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.72	5.66	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	51	39	8	100%	5.8	20.8%	15.9%	4.9%	3.4%	5.63	5.62	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	60	253	52	40	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	15.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.64	5.67	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	50	39	9	100%	5.8	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.7%	5.74	5.81	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	54	228	46	37	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	16.4%	3.8%	3.9%	5.89	5.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	322	1360	279	220	49	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.2%	4.4%	3.6%	5.75	5.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	137	30	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.2%	4.4%	3.6%	5.75	5.37	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		123	93	428	1918	379	372	64	76%	3.5	19.8%	19.4%	0.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.71	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	43	200	896	177	174	30	76%	3.5	19.8%	19.4%	0.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.71	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 72 IPFIP 5.54 → 6.67 (+1.13)K% 27.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.48%	—	×0.810	22.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.40%	—	×1.100	22.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.54 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 57 IPFIP 6.08 → 6.84 (+0.76)K% 17.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.58%	—	×0.810	14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.41%	—	×1.100	21.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.077	×1.200	4.08%

Result: FIP 6.08 → 6.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 36 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.60 (+0.98)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.770	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.07%	—	×1.150	17.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.983	×1.250	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 102 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.34 (+1.04)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.31%	—	×0.770	16.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.52%	—	×1.150	16.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.75%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 56 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.40 (+1.35)K% 36.2% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.740	26.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.47%	—	×1.180	17.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.089	×1.300	2.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 37 IPFIP 5.47 → 6.77 (+1.30)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.28%	—	×0.770	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.54%	—	×1.150	21.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.93%	÷1.033	×1.250	4.76%

Result: FIP 5.47 → 6.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 69 IPFIP 3.83 → 5.00 (+1.17)K% 29.1% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.08%	—	×0.740	21.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.180	19.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.140	×1.300	2.24%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frank Mozzicato (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.70	20.6%	4.2%	244	-0.60	—	—	—
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	77
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	71
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	71
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	69
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	68
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	67
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	67
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	67
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	67
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	65
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	65
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	64
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	63
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	63
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	63
Tommy Sommer L 2023 · 6.99 FIP	24	SP	6.99	16.7%	16.4%	5.9%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	230	63
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	62
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	62
Matt Perisho L 2000 · 5.59 FIP	25	SW	5.59	14.4%	12.4%	3.9%	.325	4.96	9.3%	1.3%	50	-0.63	4.41	261	61
Mark Reyes L 2017 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.9%	17.0%	2.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	378	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	20.3%	17.1%	1.37	5.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*