Brendan Donovan — OGILVIE

Brendan Donovan2B Seattle Mariners

Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 386 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 83125vR 141

AVG/OBP/SLG.287 / .366 / .437

PA386

HR10

K%13

BB%9

BABIP313

ISO150

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

905.2%

xwOBA

800.343

POWER45

Barrel%

396.8

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

2368.5

EYE60

Chase%

8425.0%

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1238 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

384

854

—

wRC+

141

▶▶R

wOBA

283

369

▶▶R

ISO

090

167

▶▶R

BABIP

278

322

▶R

14.6%

12.2%

▶▶R

BB%

6.3%

8.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.3	$10M	+$8M
2027	Arb-3	$18M	+4.2	$31M	+$15M
Totals		$20M		$41M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	480	428	88	17	3	5	37	116	11	4	2	206	286	294	580	89	267	24	8	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	480	402	107	26	3	8	63	91	11	4	2	266	380	405	786	139	322	19	13	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	4 teams	—	523	466	120	19	1	12	37	118	15	21	9	258	332	380	712	122	317	23	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	4 teams	—	523	443	135	26	1	14	60	85	15	21	9	305	405	463	868	158	347	16	11	386	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	533	451	125	24	1	6	65	80	14	2	3	277	385	375	760	98	324	15	12	341	119	+12	-1	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	533	448	127	24	1	6	68	78	14	2	3	283	394	382	776	98	331	15	13	356	130	+18	-1	-2	+2	+15	3.3
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	371	327	93	10	1	11	33	53	9	5	1	284	366	422	788	138	311	14	9	347	123	+10	+1	-4	+1	+11	1.9
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	371	327	93	10	1	11	33	53	9	5	1	284	366	422	788	138	311	14	9	354	129	+12	+1	-4	+1	+11	2.1
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	652	587	163	34	3	14	47	81	13	5	5	278	345	417	762	140	300	12	7	336	116	+11	-1	+1	-7	+18	2.4
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	652	587	163	34	3	14	47	81	13	5	5	278	345	417	762	140	300	12	7	339	118	+13	-1	+1	-7	+18	2.5
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	515	460	132	32	0	10	42	67	7	3	3	287	356	422	777	135	315	13	8	338	117	+10	-1	+0	+2	+15	2.6
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	515	460	132	32	0	10	42	67	7	3	3	287	356	422	777	135	315	13	8	345	122	+13	-1	+0	+2	+15	3.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	101	84	23	4	1	3	11	15	5	1	1	274	390	452	842	179	299	15	11	371	142	+5	-0	-3	+0	+3	0.5
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	101	84	23	4	1	3	11	15	5	1	1	274	390	452	842	179	299	15	11	375	145	+5	-0	-3	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	386	341	98	19	1	10	33	52	9	4	2	287	366	437	802	150	312	13	9	357	131	+14	+0	+1	+1	+11	2.7
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	386	341	97	18	1	10	33	52	9	4	2	284	363	431	794	147	309	13	9	336	115	+7	+0	+1	+1	+11	2.0
FULL	29	MLB	SEA	—	487	425	120	22	2	13	44	67	14	5	3	282	369	435	804	153	307	14	9	343	121	+11	-0	-2	+2	+14	2.5
TOT	29	MLB	SEA	—	487	425	121	23	2	13	44	67	14	5	3	285	371	440	811	155	310	14	9	360	133	+18	-0	-2	+2	+14	3.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	639	565	161	30	2	16	54	88	15	5	2	285	363	430	793	145	311	14	8	354	129	+21	+0	-1	+2	+18	4.2
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	626	553	155	29	1	15	53	88	15	4	2	280	359	418	777	137	309	14	8	349	126	+18	+0	-1	+2	+18	3.8
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	614	543	150	28	1	14	52	89	14	4	2	276	355	409	764	133	305	14	8	343	120	+14	+0	-2	+2	+17	3.2
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	529	467	126	22	1	12	45	79	12	2	1	270	349	398	748	128	299	15	9	334	114	+8	+0	-3	+2	+15	2.3
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	447	397	103	18	1	9	37	70	10	1	1	259	338	378	716	118	292	16	8	324	106	+3	-0	-4	+2	+13	1.3
2032	35	MLB	SEA	100%	378	335	83	13	1	7	31	62	9	1	0	248	328	355	683	107	284	16	8	312	97	-1	+0	-5	+1	+11	0.6
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	639	565	160	30	2	16	54	88	15	5	2	283	361	428	790	145	308	14	8	333	113	+9	+0	-1	+2	+18	3.0
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	626	553	154	29	1	15	53	88	15	4	2	278	357	416	773	137	306	14	8	329	110	+7	+0	-1	+2	+18	2.6
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	614	543	148	27	1	14	52	89	14	4	2	273	351	403	755	131	302	14	8	322	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+17	2.1
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	529	467	124	22	1	11	45	79	12	2	1	266	345	388	733	122	297	15	9	314	99	-1	+0	-3	+2	+15	1.3
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	447	397	102	17	1	9	37	70	10	1	1	257	336	373	708	116	290	16	8	304	91	-5	-0	-4	+2	+13	0.6
2032	35	MLB	SEA	100%	378	335	83	13	1	7	31	62	9	1	0	248	328	355	683	107	282	16	8	292	82	-8	+0	-5	+1	+11	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5625	4966	1366	253	13	122	487	799	127	36	22	275	355	405	760	130	305	14	9	330	111	+67	-2	-19	+11	+159	22.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	158	29	2	14	56	92	15	4	3	275	355	406	761	131	306	14	9	330	111	+8	-0	-2	+1	+18	2.5
Career	—			—	6693	5920	1597	295	17	141	566	1043	153	61	33	270	349	397	746	127	305	16	8	333	113	+96	-1	-19	+15	+190	28.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	156	29	2	14	55	101	15	6	3	271	350	402	752	130	306	16	8	333	113	+9	+0	-2	+1	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	480	402	107	26	3	8	63	91	11	4	2	266	380	405	786	139	322	19	13	355	130	+16	+0	—	—	+14	3.0
2021	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	131	111	32	5	0	6	15	23	4	4	2	288	392	495	888	207	313	18	11	392	158	+9	+0	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	219	185	59	10	1	4	25	39	6	8	5	319	417	449	865	130	379	18	11	386	153	+13	-0	—	—	+6	1.9
2021	24	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	109	95	28	6	0	2	10	15	4	7	1	295	385	421	806	126	333	14	9	366	138	+5	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2021	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	64	52	16	5	0	2	10	8	1	2	1	308	429	519	948	212	326	12	16	413	174	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	391	110	21	1	5	60	70	14	2	3	281	396	379	774	97	330	15	13	355	130	+16	-1	-2	+2	+13	2.8
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	65	57	17	3	0	1	8	8	0	0	0	298	385	404	788	105	333	12	12	358	132	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	371	327	93	10	1	11	33	53	9	5	1	284	366	422	788	138	311	14	9	354	129	+12	+1	-4	+1	+11	2.1
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	652	587	163	34	3	14	47	81	13	5	5	278	345	417	762	140	300	12	7	339	118	+13	-1	+1	-7	+18	2.5
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	515	460	132	32	0	10	42	67	7	3	3	287	356	422	777	135	315	13	8	345	122	+13	-1	+0	+2	+15	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2006	1765	498	97	5	40	182	271	43	15	12	282	363	411	774	129	312	14	9	347	124	+54	-2	-5	-2	+57	10.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Melvin Moralast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,119 PA	12	6,119	171	91	278	351	433	+0	+7	33.2	30.7
	/162	664	19	10	278	351	433	+0.0	+0.8	3.6	pk7: 28
#2Carlos Guillénlast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,214 PA	12	5,214	123	72	285	355	444	+20	-1	31.5	30.1
	/162	664	16	9	285	355	444	+2.5	-0.1	4.0	pk7: 29
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,827	128	38	278	353	411	+21	-21	29.7	26.0
	/162	664	15	4	278	353	411	+2.4	-2.4	3.4	pk7: 22
#3David Freeselast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,195 PA	10	4,195	112	8	277	351	423	+11	+7	23.1	21.0
	/162	664	18	1	277	351	423	+1.7	+1.1	3.7	pk7: 19
#4Ronnie Belliardlast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,105 PA	11	5,105	106	39	271	334	414	+5	+5	21.4	20.2
	/162	664	14	5	271	334	414	+0.6	+0.7	2.8	pk7: 19
#5Neil Walkerlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,071 PA	10	5,071	149	31	268	339	429	+1	-35	20.5	19.8
	/162	664	20	4	268	339	429	+0.2	-4.6	2.7	pk7: 19
#6Edgardo Alfonzolast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,390 PA	7	3,390	84	22	280	357	422	-4	-8	16.9	16.9
	/162	664	16	4	280	357	422	-0.9	-1.5	3.3	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brendan Donovan (OGILVIE)	29	60	45	45	60	285/371/440	155	310	13	5	14%	9%	133	+3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●John Jaso 2013 · MLB	29	52→57	48→50	50→45	64	257/358/414	156	278	14	7	14%	13%	124	+3.4	267/360/421	154	310	14	6	17%	12%	127	+3.6	271/354/431	160	317	13	2	18%	10%	123	+1.9
●David DeJesus 2010 · MLB	30	57→62	46→50	44→45	54	280/348/423	142	308	12	8	13%	8%	121	+3.2	275/348/416	141	312	11	6	15%	9%	120	+3.1	269/350/404	135	308	10	6	15%	9%	114	+2.2
✕John Baker 2010 · MLB	29	55→59	46→45	42→45	52	267/342/405	138	326	13	3	21%	9%	115	+2.7	247/327/359	112	311	8	5	21%	10%	97	+1.5	194/271/237	43	268	3	2	26%	9%	36	-1.0
●Ryan Doumit 2010 · MLB	29	54→63	52→55	45	48	275/325/448	173	298	19	6	16%	6%	119	+3.1	264/325/428	164	298	18	3	18%	7%	114	+2.7	267/329/434	168	303	19	0	18%	7%	112	+1.8
✕Omar Narváez 2021 · MLB	29	51→55	53→50	42→30	54	258/341/423	165	302	22	3	22%	10%	120	+3.1	242/322/373	131	288	14	2	20%	10%	98	+1.6	236/317/352	116	280	12	0	19%	10%	87	+0.4
✕Donovan Walton 2022 · MLB	28	54→59	52→55	40→45	49	273/335/444	171	296	20	6	16%	7%	122	+3.3	237/297/372	135	271	13	8	17%	7%	88	+0.9	254/316/372	119	283	14	5	16%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Junior Spivey 2004 · MLB	29	55→61	51→55	47→50	53	272/352/445	173	319	17	9	20%	9%	129	+3.7	242/327/394	152	297	16	13	23%	10%	106	+2.2	215/311/348	133	267	14	17	24%	10%	85	+0.4
●Derek Dietrich 2018 · MLB	29	53→59	50→55	42→40	48	259/347/428	169	314	16	2	22%	8%	124	+3.4	247/337/440	193	297	23	4	24%	7%	123	+3.3	212/315/384	172	273	22	2	29%	7%	97	+1.0
✕Josh Bard 2008 · MLB	30	58→60	45→50	43→30	59	284/360/422	138	316	11	3	14%	11%	126	+3.5	234/302/353	119	270	10	3	17%	9%	85	+0.7	236/280/353	117	286	11	0	21%	6%	72	-0.1
●Adam Eaton 2018 · MLB	29	57→65	46→45	52→55	54	279/356/423	144	324	12	13	17%	9%	125	+3.5	275/358/414	139	321	12	13	17%	10%	124	+3.4	272/357/409	136	317	12	13	17%	10%	120	+2.1
●Jed Lowrie 2014 · MLB	30	55→60	50→55	48→40	53	273/334/436	163	299	16	3	15%	8%	119	+3.1	255/323/383	128	290	11	2	15%	9%	101	+1.8	268/351/444	176	309	17	0	18%	11%	125	+3.5
●Todd Walker 2002 · MLB	29	57→61	51→55	39→45	55	285/346/451	166	304	17	5	13%	9%	128	+3.7	284/343/434	150	305	14	4	11%	8%	122	+3.3	282/344/431	149	300	13	3	11%	8%	115	+2.7
●Jake Cronenworth 2023 · MLB	29	51→59	52→55	48→50	55	256/339/433	177	285	18	4	17%	10%	121	+3.2	245/333/402	157	284	15	6	19%	10%	111	+2.5	242/337/391	150	283	14	5	19%	10%	107	+2.1
●Nick Markakis 2013 · MLB	29	57→63	46→55	47→50	57	280/348/418	139	298	13	6	12%	9%	121	+3.2	272/337/375	103	298	10	3	12%	9%	105	+2.1	283/359/410	127	318	10	1	14%	10%	115	+2.9
✕Mark Kotsay 2006 · MLB	30	58→63	47→50	42→50	54	286/340/426	140	300	13	7	10%	8%	119	+3.1	265/321/383	118	284	9	6	10%	8%	99	+1.7	260/319/367	106	282	7	5	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Scooter Gennett 2019 · MLB	29	57→60	54→55	46→50	46	289/339/472	183	335	23	5	21%	7%	131	+3.9	259/307/411	152	321	17	6	24%	6%	102	+1.9	220/244/319	99	302	8	0	29%	2%	49	-0.5
●Jorge Cantu 2011 · MLB	29	54→62	49→60	45→40	48	268/321/422	154	297	16	3	16%	6%	111	+2.5	240/289/410	170	264	22	3	19%	6%	95	+1.4	263/319/464	201	283	27	4	18%	6%	122	+2.1
✕Hyun Soo Kim 2017 · MLB	29	57	44→45	39→30	57	276/355/399	123	314	11	5	15%	10%	118	+3.0	246/322/351	105	295	9	5	19%	9%	92	+1.2	225/303/284	59	282	2	0	19%	9%	63	-0.3
●Gio Urshela 2021 · MLB	29	55→60	52→55	45→40	49	280/333/455	175	311	20	4	17%	7%	124	+3.4	274/321/419	145	325	16	4	20%	6%	109	+2.4	277/322/407	130	330	14	2	20%	6%	104	+1.3
●Neil Walker 2014 · MLB	28	53→57	49→55	42→45	53	264/338/418	155	297	16	5	17%	9%	117	+2.9	269/338/446	177	298	21	4	17%	8%	124	+3.4	273/340/454	181	300	23	3	17%	8%	122	+2.9