Brendan Donovan
3B Seattle Mariners| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | MLBSTL | 652 | .278/.345/.417 | 14 | 5 | 117 | 2.1 | |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBSTL | 515 | .287/.356/.422 | 10 | 3 | 118 | 2.4 | |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA/A+SEA | 40 | .132/.154/.211 | 1 | 0 | -30 | — | .130/.153/.205 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBSEA | 159 | .277/.373/.409 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBSEA | 284 | .277/.347/.420 | 7 | 2 | 120 | 1.1 | |
| 2028PROJ | 31 | MLBSEA | 266 | .272/.342/.409 | 6 | 0 | 115 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ | 32 | MLBSEA | 244 | .265/.334/.394 | 5 | 0 | 109 | 0.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 480 | 402 | 107 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 63 | 91 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 380 | 405 | 786 | 139 | 322 | 19 | 13 | 355 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 131 | 111 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 288 | 392 | 495 | 888 | 207 | 313 | 18 | 11 | 392 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 219 | 185 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 39 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 319 | 417 | 449 | 865 | 130 | 379 | 18 | 11 | 386 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 109 | 95 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 295 | 385 | 421 | 806 | 126 | 333 | 14 | 9 | 366 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 64 | 52 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 308 | 429 | 519 | 948 | 212 | 326 | 12 | 16 | 413 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 468 | 391 | 110 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 60 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 281 | 396 | 379 | 774 | 97 | 330 | 15 | 13 | 355 | 127 | +15 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 65 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 385 | 404 | 788 | 105 | 333 | 12 | 12 | 358 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 371 | 327 | 93 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 284 | 366 | 422 | 788 | 138 | 311 | 14 | 9 | 354 | 126 | +12 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 417 | 762 | 140 | 300 | 12 | 7 | 339 | 117 | +13 | -1 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 460 | 132 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 287 | 356 | 422 | 777 | 135 | 315 | 13 | 8 | 345 | 118 | +11 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 159 | 137 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 373 | 409 | 782 | 131 | 312 | 14 | 9 | 353 | 127 | +5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 176 | 353 | 529 | 176 | 154 | 18 | 0 | 229 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 136 | 95 | 232 | 118 | 22 | 0 | 111 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2165 | 1902 | 536 | 104 | 6 | 43 | 197 | 294 | 49 | 16 | 13 | 282 | 364 | 411 | 775 | 129 | 312 | 14 | 9 | 348 | 121 | +55 | -2 | -8 | -1 | +47 | 9.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 480 | 425 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 120 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 296 | 313 | 609 | 101 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 131 | 116 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 331 | 414 | 745 | 164 | 283 | 22 | 8 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 219 | 194 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 278 | 352 | 376 | 728 | 98 | 340 | 22 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 109 | 98 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 265 | 339 | 378 | 717 | 112 | 313 | 18 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 468 | 392 | 109 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 59 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 278 | 391 | 372 | 764 | 94 | 330 | 15 | 13 | 355 | 127 | +15 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 65 | 60 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 323 | 367 | 690 | 100 | 302 | 15 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 371 | 329 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 363 | 432 | 795 | 146 | 311 | 14 | 8 | 355 | 126 | +12 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 421 | 765 | 143 | 300 | 12 | 7 | 341 | 117 | +13 | -1 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 463 | 132 | 31 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 285 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 138 | 315 | 13 | 8 | 342 | 118 | +11 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 159 | 137 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 373 | 409 | 782 | 131 | 312 | 14 | 9 | 356 | 127 | +5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 176 | 353 | 529 | 176 | 137 | 24 | 0 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 136 | 95 | 232 | 100 | 30 | 0 | 91 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 480 | 425 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 120 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 296 | 313 | 609 | 101 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 480 | 402 | 107 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 63 | 91 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 380 | 405 | 786 | 139 | 322 | 19 | 13 | 355 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 523 | 465 | 123 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 112 | 15 | 21 | 9 | 265 | 340 | 383 | 723 | 118 | 323 | 21 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 523 | 443 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 85 | 15 | 21 | 9 | 305 | 405 | 463 | 868 | 158 | 347 | 16 | 11 | 386 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 452 | 125 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 64 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 277 | 383 | 372 | 755 | 95 | 323 | 15 | 12 | 348 | 121 | +14 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 533 | 448 | 127 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 68 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 283 | 394 | 382 | 776 | 98 | 331 | 15 | 13 | 356 | 121 | +14 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 371 | 329 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 363 | 432 | 795 | 146 | 309 | 14 | 8 | 355 | 126 | +12 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB RAW | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 371 | 327 | 93 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 284 | 366 | 422 | 788 | 138 | 311 | 14 | 9 | 354 | 126 | +12 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 421 | 765 | 143 | 298 | 12 | 7 | 341 | 117 | +13 | -1 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB RAW | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 417 | 762 | 140 | 300 | 12 | 7 | 339 | 117 | +13 | -1 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 463 | 132 | 31 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 285 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 138 | 311 | 13 | 8 | 342 | 118 | +11 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB RAW | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 460 | 132 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 287 | 356 | 422 | 777 | 135 | 315 | 13 | 8 | 345 | 118 | +11 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 175 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 330 | 366 | 696 | 120 | 279 | 17 | 8 | 309 | 96 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 199 | 175 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 330 | 366 | 696 | 120 | 275 | 16 | 8 | 315 | 96 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 480 | 426 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 120 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 296 | 312 | 608 | 101 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 523 | 465 | 123 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 112 | 15 | 21 | 9 | 265 | 340 | 383 | 723 | 118 | 317 | 21 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 450 | 125 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 64 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 278 | 383 | 373 | 756 | 96 | 327 | 15 | 12 | 348 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 371 | 328 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 287 | 363 | 433 | 796 | 146 | 311 | 14 | 8 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 421 | 765 | 143 | 300 | 12 | 7 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 464 | 132 | 31 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 284 | 350 | 422 | 772 | 138 | 315 | 13 | 8 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 175 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 330 | 366 | 696 | 120 | 273 | 17 | 8 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 652 | 587 | 163 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 345 | 421 | 765 | 143 | 300 | 12 | 7 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 515 | 464 | 132 | 31 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 67 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 284 | 350 | 422 | 772 | 138 | 315 | 13 | 8 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 175 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 330 | 366 | 696 | 120 | 273 | 17 | 8 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 100% | 390 | 349 | 97 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 280 | 350 | 426 | 776 | 146 | 307 | 14 | 8 | 345 | 120 | +9 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 100% | 284 | 254 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 277 | 347 | 420 | 768 | 143 | 304 | 14 | 8 | 342 | 120 | +7 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | SEA | 100% | 266 | 239 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 344 | 415 | 759 | 140 | 304 | 15 | 8 | 338 | 115 | +5 | +0 | -6 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB MLE | SEA | 100% | 244 | 219 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 337 | 400 | 736 | 132 | 299 | 15 | 7 | 329 | 109 | +3 | +0 | -6 | +1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | SEA | 100% | 266 | 239 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 342 | 409 | 751 | 137 | 301 | 15 | 8 | 335 | 115 | +5 | +0 | -6 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB CTX | SEA | 100% | 244 | 219 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 334 | 394 | 729 | 129 | 296 | 15 | 7 | 326 | 109 | +3 | +0 | -6 | +1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2675 | 2360 | 660 | 129 | 8 | 54 | 235 | 370 | 59 | 16 | 13 | 280 | 359 | 410 | 769 | 130 | 311 | 14 | 9 | 345 | 109 | +63 | -2 | -20 | +1 | +58 | 10.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 573 | 160 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 57 | 90 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 279 | 358 | 408 | 767 | 129 | 310 | 14 | 9 | 345 | 109 | +15 | -0 | -5 | +0 | +14 | 2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4067 | 3608 | 966 | 183 | 13 | 83 | 334 | 663 | 92 | 43 | 25 | 268 | 345 | 395 | 740 | 127 | 306 | 16 | 8 | 330 | 109 | +69 | -2 | -23 | +2 | +64 | 11.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 154 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 106 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 267 | 344 | 392 | 736 | 125 | 305 | 16 | 8 | 330 | 109 | +15 | -0 | -5 | +0 | +14 | 2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 23 PAwOBA .113 → .091 (−22)K% 21.7% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 29.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.940 | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 10.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .113 → .091; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .100. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 17 PAwOBA .221 → .168 (−53)K% 17.6% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 13.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .221 → .168; ISO .176 → .116; BABIP .154 → .137. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 65 PAwOBA .349 → .294 (−55)K% 12.3% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.31% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 24.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .349 → .294; ISO .105 → .082; BABIP .333 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 219 PAwOBA .380 → .323 (−57)K% 17.8% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.96% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.14% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 27.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.19% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .380 → .323; ISO .130 → .106; BABIP .379 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 131 PAwOBA .384 → .321 (−63)K% 17.6% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.56% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.45% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×1.048 | 22.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.048 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.27% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .384 → .321; ISO .207 → .163; BABIP .313 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Peoria Chiefs · 109 PAwOBA .357 → .307 (−50)K% 13.8% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 18.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.67% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 1.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .307; ISO .126 → .104; BABIP .333 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 APeoria Chiefs · 480 PAwOBA .348 → .267 (−81)K% 19.0% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.96% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.92% | ÷1.073 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.51% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 19.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.103 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.010 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.57% | ÷1.105 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 102, K 107, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .348 → .267; ISO .139 → .102; BABIP .322 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .