Deniel Ortiz — OGILVIE

Deniel Ortiz3B Springfield Cardinals

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 224 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .315 / .351

PA224

HR5

SB7

K%28

BB%11

BABIP291

ISO134

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$15M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$14M	+$14M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$13M	+$10M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$11M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$28M		$77M	+$64M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	61	45	6	1	0	0	14	16	0	1	0	133	339	156	495	22	194	26	23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	61	45	6	1	0	0	14	16	0	1	0	133	339	156	495	22	194	26	23	255	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	3 teams	—	598	515	117	21	1	15	65	224	13	45	10	227	329	359	688	132	363	37	11	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	3 teams	—	598	496	142	24	1	13	84	145	13	45	10	286	403	417	820	131	376	24	14	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	STL	—	96	79	16	5	0	1	12	29	4	4	0	203	337	304	641	101	300	30	12	285	77	-3	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.1
YTD	21	AA	STL	—	96	74	16	5	0	1	17	22	4	4	0	216	389	324	714	108	288	23	18	337	116	+2	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.6
ROS	21	AA	STL	2%	224	194	42	9	1	5	24	63	4	7	1	216	315	351	666	134	287	28	11	303	90	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.5
ROS	21	MLB	STL	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						287	25	0	289	79	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	AA	STL	—	100	83	16	5	0	1	12	30	4	4	0	193	323	289	612	96	283	30	12	286	77	-3	+1	-0	+0	+3	0.1
TOT	21	AA	STL	—	320	273	58	14	1	6	36	92	8	11	1	212	322	337	659	125	294	29	11	298	86	-5	+2	-1	+1	+9	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	STL	44%	523	452	100	20	2	14	56	144	10	15	3	221	320	367	688	146	287	28	11	309	95	-3	+2	-2	+2	+15	1.4
2028	23	MLB	STL	61%	566	491	111	22	2	17	60	152	10	16	4	226	323	383	706	157	289	27	11	317	101	+1	+2	-2	+2	+16	1.9
2029	24	MLB	STL	66%	594	516	119	23	2	19	63	157	10	16	4	231	326	393	719	163	290	26	11	322	105	+3	+2	-2	+2	+17	2.2
2030	25	MLB	STL	69%	610	529	123	24	2	20	65	160	11	17	4	233	329	399	728	166	290	26	11	326	107	+5	+2	-2	+2	+17	2.5
2031	26	MLB	STL	70%	617	535	125	24	2	21	66	162	11	17	4	234	330	404	734	170	290	26	11	327	109	+6	+2	-2	+2	+17	2.6
2032	27	MLB	STL	69%	617	534	124	24	2	21	67	162	11	17	4	232	330	403	733	170	290	26	11	327	109	+6	+2	-2	+2	+17	2.6
2033	28	MLB	STL	68%	612	529	122	24	2	20	67	162	11	16	4	231	329	397	726	166	289	26	11	326	108	+5	+2	-3	+2	+17	2.4
2034	29	MLB	STL	67%	602	521	120	23	2	20	66	160	10	15	3	230	328	397	726	167	288	27	11	324	106	+4	+2	-3	+2	+17	2.2
2035	30	MLB	STL	66%	592	512	116	22	2	19	65	159	10	13	3	227	325	389	714	162	287	27	11	321	104	+3	+1	-4	+2	+17	1.9
2036	31	MLB	STL	65%	578	500	112	21	2	18	63	157	10	11	3	224	323	382	705	158	284	27	11	317	101	+1	+1	-5	+2	+16	1.6
2037	32	MLB	STL	65%	559	484	106	20	1	17	61	154	9	9	2	219	318	370	688	151	280	28	11	311	96	-2	+1	-5	+2	+16	1.2
2038	33	MLB	STL	65%	529	457	98	18	1	16	58	149	9	7	2	214	315	363	678	149	275	28	11	304	91	-5	+1	-6	+2	+15	0.6
2027	22	MLB	STL	44%	230	199	44	9	1	6	25	63	4	6	1	221	320	367	687	146	287	27	11	296	84	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2028	23	MLB	STL	61%	346	300	67	13	1	10	37	93	6	10	2	223	321	373	694	150	288	27	11	304	91	-4	+1	-1	+1	+10	0.8
2029	24	MLB	STL	66%	394	342	78	15	1	12	42	104	7	11	2	228	325	383	708	155	290	26	11	309	95	-2	+1	-1	+1	+11	1.1
2030	25	MLB	STL	69%	419	364	85	16	2	14	45	110	7	12	3	234	329	404	733	170	290	26	11	313	97	-1	+1	-1	+1	+12	1.2
2031	26	MLB	STL	70%	431	374	88	17	2	15	46	113	8	12	3	235	332	412	744	176	290	26	11	314	99	-1	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.3
2032	27	MLB	STL	69%	425	369	85	16	2	14	46	112	7	12	3	230	327	398	725	168	290	26	11	314	99	-1	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.3
2033	28	MLB	STL	68%	419	363	83	16	1	14	46	111	7	11	3	229	327	394	721	165	289	26	11	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+1	+12	1.2
2034	29	MLB	STL	67%	402	348	79	15	1	13	44	107	7	10	2	227	326	388	714	161	288	27	11	311	96	-2	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.0
2035	30	MLB	STL	66%	389	336	77	15	1	13	43	104	7	9	2	229	329	396	725	167	286	27	11	308	94	-3	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.8
2036	31	MLB	STL	65%	376	326	73	14	1	12	41	102	6	7	2	224	322	383	705	160	284	27	11	304	91	-4	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.6
2037	32	MLB	STL	65%	362	313	69	13	1	11	40	100	6	6	1	220	320	374	694	153	280	28	11	299	87	-5	+1	-3	+1	+10	0.4
2038	33	MLB	STL	65%	342	296	63	11	1	10	37	96	6	4	1	213	313	358	671	145	275	28	11	292	82	-7	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4539	3934	891	170	15	144	492	1216	78	110	25	226	324	387	712	161	288	27	11	307	93	-34	+12	-24	+16	+129	10.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	563	127	24	2	21	70	174	11	16	4	226	322	387	710	162	286	27	11	307	93	-5	+2	-3	+2	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	7882	6814	1541	296	24	242	860	2181	139	222	51	226	325	383	708	157	293	28	11	316	100	-1	+24	-37	+28	+223	24.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	127	24	2	20	71	180	11	18	4	226	325	383	707	157	292	28	11	316	100	-0	+2	-3	+2	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	61	45	6	1	0	0	14	16	0	1	0	133	339	156	495	22	194	26	23	255	54	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	130	110	37	9	0	3	18	29	2	8	6	336	438	500	938	164	436	22	14	419	179	+12	-1	—	—	+4	1.5
2025	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	320	260	74	10	1	10	49	88	7	31	3	285	411	446	858	162	386	28	15	383	151	+19	+5	—	—	+9	3.3
2025	20	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	148	126	31	5	0	0	17	28	4	6	1	246	354	286	639	40	313	19	11	302	90	-2	+1	—	—	+4	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#2Rickie Weeks Jr.last yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,098 PA	13	5,098	161	132	246	344	420	+12	-40	23.3	22.4
	/162	664	21	17	246	344	420	+1.5	-5.2	3.0	pk7: 22
#3Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#4Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#5Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#6Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,543	144	109	228	322	390	+16	-24	17.0	14.6
	/162	664	21	16	228	322	390	+2.4	-3.6	2.5	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Deniel Ortiz (OGILVIE)	21	42	55	47	64	212/322/337	125	294	6	11	29%	11%	86	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Sean Rodríguez 2006 · A	21	43→49	45→60	49→50	52	213/296/343	130	256	12	15	22%	10%	80	+0.4	230/299/397	167	296	19	11	28%	7%	96	+1.5	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	49→50	49→55	46	224/295/363	140	285	17	16	27%	8%	85	+0.7	236/289/367	131	301	14	19	25%	6%	82	+0.5	242/290/380	137	303	15	21	25%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→47	45→55	48→55	46	233/305/357	125	310	12	12	27%	8%	87	+0.8	242/305/384	142	306	15	16	25%	7%	94	+1.3	248/306/416	169	299	18	16	23%	6%	100	+1.2
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	78	+0.2	210/269/323	113	265	11	17	24%	7%	63	-0.8	202/247/302	100	249	8	18	22%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Wuilfredo Antunez 2023 · A	21	46→38	48→55	53→50	50	230/311/377	147	292	15	16	26%	10%	95	+1.4	217/268/357	140	291	13	13	29%	6%	71	-0.3	210/258/368	159	276	15	14	29%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→52	50→55	52→50	44	239/300/400	161	302	18	13	26%	7%	96	+1.5	239/305/397	158	301	17	7	25%	8%	98	+1.6	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
✕Harry Ford 2023 · A	20	44→47	49→45	52→55	50	216/319/365	149	309	16	14	33%	11%	96	+1.5	213/318/341	128	281	13	18	26%	11%	90	+1.0	211/319/330	119	271	12	19	25%	12%	84	+0.5
✕Juan Brito 2023 · A	21	48→49	47→50	48→45	53	234/319/377	143	286	13	11	22%	10%	98	+1.6	227/305/369	142	277	14	9	22%	9%	91	+1.1	218/298/359	141	264	15	9	22%	9%	83	+0.4
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	216/296/344	128	273	15	16	26%	8%	81	+0.4	220/281/361	141	294	15	13	29%	7%	78	+0.2	205/253/387	182	264	22	15	31%	6%	72	-0.1
✕George Valera 2022 · AA	21	41→39	50	50→45	51	211/311/366	155	289	19	12	32%	11%	93	+1.3	208/290/362	154	293	18	6	33%	10%	83	+0.6	198/278/349	151	277	19	4	34%	9%	72	-0.2
●Matt McLain 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→55	53→55	48	218/295/334	116	293	11	20	28%	9%	77	+0.1	236/317/422	186	323	21	22	31%	9%	109	+2.4	231/315/405	174	310	20	23	30%	9%	102	+1.7
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	47→60	49→55	41	242/301/379	137	306	14	12	25%	5%	92	+1.2	249/319/435	186	302	22	19	25%	6%	115	+2.7	247/321/459	212	303	27	25	27%	7%	117	+2.6
✕Brennen Davis 2021 · A	21	47→41	48→50	51→45	43	235/298/375	140	305	16	9	27%	7%	89	+1.0	201/278/338	137	293	16	8	35%	7%	72	-0.2	185/285/365	180	232	25	4	31%	8%	81	+0.2
●Paul DeJong 2016 · A	22	50	47→60	52→45	43	247/300/387	140	314	13	13	25%	6%	92	+1.2	242/291/419	177	315	22	4	29%	5%	98	+1.6	247/312/461	214	291	28	4	26%	7%	115	+2.8
✕Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	46→49	51→60	46→50	45	228/304/400	172	318	18	6	32%	9%	98	+1.6	207/286/350	143	335	16	6	40%	9%	78	+0.2	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→45	49→60	55→45	47	243/313/397	153	307	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.8	223/296/393	170	304	20	6	32%	8%	93	+1.3	221/303/414	193	290	23	4	31%	9%	99	+1.4
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→53	46→60	48→50	49	229/305/362	133	299	13	13	27%	9%	89	+0.9	214/286/331	117	295	10	13	29%	9%	72	-0.2	245/312/443	198	315	23	11	28%	8%	108	+1.4
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→44	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	96	+1.5	216/319/370	154	271	17	7	26%	8%	98	+1.6	214/320/367	152	267	17	7	25%	8%	95	+0.9
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	49→50	47→55	54→55	43	236/299/379	142	334	15	17	32%	8%	90	+1.0	235/298/420	185	327	24	20	34%	8%	101	+1.8	229/294/414	185	314	24	24	33%	8%	95	+1.2