Deniel Ortiz

3B Springfield Cardinals
Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs AA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP40OGV rank#182ETA2028MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419INTLGigantes de C…61.133/.339/.1560159—
202520A+/A/INTL2 orgs598.286/.403/.417134592—.233/.330/.359
202621AA/ASTL286.264/.400/.4491012106—.238/.347/.393
2027PROJMLE22MLBSTL4.228/.326/.366001000.0
2028PROJ44% MLB23MLBSTL157.233/.330/.382451050.5
2029PROJ58% MLB24MLBSTL228.237/.333/.392771080.8
Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$4M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Chase%96
Whiff%88
BB%87
wOBA84
K%82
Z-Con%80
Career WAR0.5 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 21, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 62%
CompsAgustín Ramírez (age 22) · Chris Young (age 22) · Sean Rodríguez (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†100
AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .326 / .366
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%11
BABIP286
ISO144
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.00.50.81.01.01.00.80.70.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.0$6M+$6M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$6M+$5M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2033Arb-1$3M+0.8$2M+$0.3M
2034Arb-2$4M+0.7$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-3$5M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $6M $23M +$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202419 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 6145 6100 14160 10 133339156495 22194 2623 255 59 — — — — — —
202520 A+Peoria Chiefs — 130110 37903 18292 86 336438500938 164436 2214 419 103 — — — — — —
202520 APalm Beach Cardinals — 320260 7410110 49887 313 285411446858 162386 2815 383 88 — — — — — —
202520 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 148126 31500 17284 61 246354286639 40313 1911 302 91 — — — — — —
202621 AASpringfield Cardinals — 266215 6012010 40494 94 279400474874 195309 1815 381 112 — — — — — —
202621 APalm Beach Cardinals — 2012 0000 553 30 400400 2525 285 24 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202520 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 130115 30603 13392 86 261346391737 130368 3010 321 103 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 320275 61818 341207 313 222323345668 124341 3811 298 88 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 266227 581109 29604 94 256350423773 167284 2311 334 112 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 2014 0000 373 30 300300 3515 203 24 — — — — — —
202419 INTL MLEGigantes de Carolina — 6145 6100 14160 10 133339156495 22194 2623 — — — — — — — —
202419 INTL RAWGigantes de Carolina — 6145 6100 14160 10 133339156495 22194 2623 255 59 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE3 teams — 598518 12119114 6221113 4510 234331355686 122359 3510 305 92 — — — — — —
202520 A RAW3 teams — 598496 14224113 8414513 4510 286403417820 131376 2414 371 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE2 teams — 286240 581109 33677 124 242350400750 158288 2312 325 106 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAW2 teams — 286227 6012010 45547 124 264400449849 185296 1916 375 106 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE3 teams — 598518 12119114 6221113 4510 234331355686 122349 3510 305 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE2 teams — 286244 581109 33677 124 238350393743 156264 2312 325 106 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202520 A MLE3 teams — 598518 12119114 6221113 4510 234331355686 122349 3510 305 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE2 teams — 286244 581109 33677 124 238350393743 156264 2312 325 106 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLESTL 2% 396343 7915111 43987 134 229327372698 143285 2511 316 100 -0 +1 -1 +1 +9 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXSTL 2% 44 1000 010 00 228326366693 138286 250 314 100 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLESTL 44% 358310 7213111 39876 124 234331388719 154286 2411 323 105 +2 +1 -1 +1 +8 1.1
202924 MLB MLESTL 58% 392340 8115113 42947 134 237333399732 162287 2411 328 108 +4 +1 -1 +1 +8 1.4
203025 MLB MLESTL 65% 409355 8515114 44987 134 239334404739 165288 2411 331 110 +5 +1 -1 +1 +9 1.5
203126 MLB MLESTL 68% 416362 8716114 44997 134 240334406740 167288 2411 331 110 +5 +1 -1 +1 +9 1.6
203227 MLB MLESTL 68% 416362 8716114 44997 134 239332404736 165287 2411 329 109 +4 +1 -1 +1 +9 1.5
203328 MLB MLESTL 68% 411358 8515114 44996 114 237330399729 162286 2411 326 107 +3 +1 -2 +1 +9 1.3
203429 MLB MLESTL 66% 403352 8215113 42986 94 234327392719 158284 2410 322 104 +2 +0 -3 +1 +9 1.0
203530 MLB MLESTL 66% 394344 7914112 41976 73 231323383706 153282 2510 317 101 +0 +0 -3 +1 +9 0.7
203631 MLB MLESTL 65% 385336 7614012 40966 42 226318372690 146278 2510 311 97 -1 +0 -4 +1 +8 0.4
203732 MLB MLESTL 65% 374328 7213011 38955 12 220312359671 139274 2510 303 91 -4 -1 -5 +1 +8 0.0
203833 MLB MLESTL 65% 303265 571008 31794 11 213304343647 129268 2610 294 85 -5 -0 -5 +1 +7 -0.3
202823 MLB CTXSTL 44% 157136 31604 17383 52 233330382712 149288 2411 321 105 +1 +0 -0 +1 +3 0.5
202924 MLB CTXSTL 58% 228197 47917 25554 72 237333392725 156289 2411 326 108 +2 +1 -1 +1 +5 0.8
203025 MLB CTXSTL 65% 266231 561118 29634 83 238334397731 159289 2411 328 110 +3 +0 -1 +1 +6 1.0
203126 MLB CTXSTL 68% 283246 591119 30675 93 239333399733 161289 2411 328 110 +3 +1 -1 +1 +6 1.0
203227 MLB CTXSTL 68% 283247 591119 30674 93 238332397728 159289 2411 326 109 +3 +1 -1 +1 +6 1.0
203328 MLB CTXSTL 68% 279243 581119 30674 73 236329392721 156288 2411 324 107 +2 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.8
203429 MLB CTXSTL 66% 268234 551018 28654 62 233326385712 152286 2410 320 104 +1 +0 -2 +1 +6 0.7
203530 MLB CTXSTL 66% 258225 511007 27644 42 230323377699 147284 2510 315 101 +0 +0 -2 +1 +6 0.5
203631 MLB CTXSTL 65% 250218 49907 26634 22 225318366684 141280 2510 309 97 -1 -0 -3 +1 +5 0.2
203732 MLB CTXSTL 65% 242212 46906 25623 11 220311353664 134275 2610 301 91 -2 -0 -3 +1 +5 0.0
203833 MLB CTXSTL 65% 196171 37705 20513 01 213303338641 125270 2610 292 85 -4 -0 -3 +1 +4 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 27102360 548104679 28766242 5824 232326382708 150288 2411 318 99 +10 +2 -18 +10 +59 6.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650566 13125119 6915910 146 231326380705 148286 2411 318 99 +2 +0 -4 +2 +14 1.5
Career— MLE — 54164696 10901959165 581138791 16252 232328383711 151291 2611 315 99 +15 +6 -28 +16 +97 10.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650564 13123120 7016611 196 232329383712 151291 2611 315 99 +2 +1 -4 +2 +14 1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 266 PAwOBA .380 → .334 (−46)K% 18.4% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.42%÷1.000×1.220——22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.04%÷1.000×0.700—×1.04210.97%
HBP% /PA1.50%—×0.870—×1.0421.36%
Singles /BIP22.89%÷1.000×0.920×0.990×1.04221.72%
Doubles /BIP7.23%÷1.000×0.840×0.990×1.0426.26%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.990×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP6.02%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0425.02%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .380 → .334; ISO .195 → .172; BABIP .309 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 20 PAwOBA .281 → .203 (−77)K% 25.0% → 34.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.360——34.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷1.000×0.690——17.25%
HBP% /PA15.00%—×0.780——11.70%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.920——0.00%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830——0.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .281 → .203; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 320 PAwOBA .377 → .298 (−80)K% 27.5% → 37.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.50%÷1.000×1.360——37.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷0.988×0.690—×1.01510.63%
HBP% /PA2.19%—×0.780—×1.0151.73%
Singles /BIP30.81%÷0.995×0.920×0.950×1.01527.49%
Doubles /BIP5.81%÷0.896×0.830×0.950×1.0155.20%
Triples /BIP0.58%÷0.900×0.910×0.950×1.0150.57%
Home runs /BIP5.81%÷0.973×0.800—×1.0154.85%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .377 → .298; ISO .162 → .129; BABIP .386 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 130 PAwOBA .408 → .321 (−87)K% 22.3% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.31%÷0.951×1.270——29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.85%÷1.027×0.710—×1.0279.83%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.790—×1.0271.25%
Singles /BIP30.86%÷1.010×0.920×0.950×1.02727.42%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.083×0.810×0.950×1.0278.11%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.926×0.850×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷0.857×0.800—×1.0273.55%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .408 → .321; ISO .164 → .131; BABIP .436 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .