Chase Meidroth
2B Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAABOS | 558 | .293/.441/.400 | 7 | 13 | 115 | — | .277/.387/.371 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAACWS | 40 | .267/.450/.600 | 3 | 2 | 118 | — | .219/.375/.438 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBCWS | 505 | .253/.329/.320 | 5 | 14 | 87 | 1.5 | |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBCWS | 643 | .276/.352/.415 | 16 | 4 | 115 | 2.9 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBCWS | 606 | .249/.330/.363 | 12 | 8 | 98 | 1.4 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 585 | .248/.329/.361 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 1.3 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 571 | .247/.327/.356 | 11 | 5 | 95 | 1.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 68 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 309 | 434 | 559 | 993 | 250 | 298 | 11 | 14 | 426 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 396 | 325 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 59 | 78 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 255 | 387 | 375 | 763 | 120 | 315 | 20 | 15 | 352 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 97 | 74 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 338 | 495 | 459 | 954 | 122 | 442 | 21 | 22 | 435 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 437 | 128 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 105 | 71 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 293 | 441 | 400 | 842 | 108 | 332 | 13 | 19 | 386 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 505 | 450 | 114 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 72 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 253 | 329 | 320 | 649 | 67 | 291 | 14 | 9 | 298 | 87 | -8 | +1 | +4 | +6 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 40 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 450 | 600 | 1.050 | 333 | 227 | 12 | 20 | 455 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 566 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 276 | 352 | 415 | 767 | 140 | 339 | 22 | 9 | 340 | 115 | +12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1148 | 1016 | 270 | 46 | 0 | 21 | 106 | 213 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 266 | 342 | 373 | 715 | 107 | 316 | 19 | 9 | 322 | 104 | +5 | +1 | +4 | +8 | +25 | 4.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 71 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 282 | 386 | 521 | 907 | 239 | 266 | 15 | 11 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 396 | 342 | 84 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 95 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 246 | 347 | 333 | 680 | 88 | 324 | 24 | 11 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 97 | 83 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 361 | 349 | 710 | 96 | 365 | 28 | 12 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 469 | 130 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 73 | 85 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 277 | 387 | 371 | 758 | 94 | 317 | 15 | 13 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 505 | 450 | 114 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 72 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 253 | 329 | 320 | 649 | 67 | 291 | 14 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +1 | +4 | +6 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 40 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 375 | 438 | 812 | 219 | 205 | 15 | 15 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 567 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 275 | 352 | 414 | 766 | 139 | 339 | 22 | 9 | 339 | 115 | +12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 71 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 282 | 386 | 521 | 907 | 239 | 286 | 15 | 11 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 68 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 309 | 434 | 559 | 993 | 250 | 298 | 11 | 14 | 426 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 425 | 106 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 54 | 122 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 249 | 352 | 341 | 693 | 92 | 333 | 25 | 11 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 399 | 108 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 80 | 98 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 271 | 409 | 391 | 800 | 120 | 338 | 20 | 16 | 368 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 469 | 130 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 73 | 85 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 277 | 387 | 371 | 758 | 94 | 324 | 15 | 13 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 437 | 128 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 105 | 71 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 293 | 441 | 400 | 842 | 108 | 332 | 13 | 19 | 386 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 482 | 121 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 78 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 251 | 333 | 328 | 661 | 77 | 286 | 14 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -7 | +2 | +4 | +6 | +12 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 545 | 480 | 122 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 53 | 77 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 254 | 338 | 338 | 676 | 83 | 288 | 14 | 10 | 310 | 90 | -7 | +2 | +4 | +6 | +12 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 567 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 275 | 352 | 414 | 766 | 139 | 338 | 22 | 9 | 339 | 115 | +12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 566 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 276 | 352 | 415 | 767 | 140 | 339 | 22 | 9 | 340 | 115 | +12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 73 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 274 | 386 | 507 | 892 | 233 | 266 | 15 | 11 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 423 | 106 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 54 | 122 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 251 | 352 | 343 | 694 | 92 | 332 | 25 | 11 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 469 | 130 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 73 | 85 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 277 | 387 | 371 | 758 | 94 | 317 | 15 | 13 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 481 | 121 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 78 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 252 | 333 | 328 | 661 | 77 | 285 | 14 | 9 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 571 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 273 | 352 | 412 | 763 | 138 | 339 | 22 | 9 | 339 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 558 | 469 | 130 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 73 | 85 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 277 | 387 | 371 | 758 | 94 | 317 | 15 | 13 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 481 | 121 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 78 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 252 | 333 | 328 | 661 | 77 | 285 | 14 | 9 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 643 | 571 | 156 | 31 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 141 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 273 | 352 | 412 | 763 | 138 | 339 | 22 | 9 | 339 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 594 | 526 | 130 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 118 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 249 | 329 | 361 | 690 | 113 | 297 | 20 | 10 | 312 | 98 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 2.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 606 | 537 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 120 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 249 | 330 | 363 | 694 | 114 | 298 | 20 | 10 | 314 | 98 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 1.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 597 | 528 | 131 | 24 | 1 | 11 | 58 | 119 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 247 | 328 | 358 | 687 | 111 | 297 | 20 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 583 | 516 | 127 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 118 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 246 | 327 | 354 | 680 | 108 | 296 | 20 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 564 | 499 | 122 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 54 | 115 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 324 | 348 | 672 | 104 | 295 | 20 | 10 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 548 | 486 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 52 | 114 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 320 | 340 | 660 | 100 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 300 | 89 | -7 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 530 | 470 | 111 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 315 | 330 | 645 | 94 | 290 | 21 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -9 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 506 | 450 | 104 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 47 | 109 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 309 | 317 | 625 | 86 | 286 | 22 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB MLE | CWS | 98% | 470 | 420 | 93 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 104 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 301 | 301 | 601 | 78 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -15 | +0 | -5 | +2 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 585 | 518 | 128 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 56 | 117 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 248 | 329 | 361 | 690 | 113 | 297 | 20 | 10 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 571 | 505 | 125 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 115 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 247 | 327 | 356 | 684 | 110 | 297 | 20 | 10 | 310 | 95 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 553 | 490 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 113 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 325 | 350 | 675 | 106 | 295 | 20 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 537 | 476 | 115 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 321 | 342 | 663 | 101 | 294 | 21 | 9 | 302 | 89 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 519 | 460 | 110 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 110 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 316 | 332 | 648 | 95 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 295 | 85 | -9 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 496 | 443 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 107 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 309 | 318 | 628 | 88 | 286 | 22 | 9 | 287 | 80 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB CTX | CWS | 98% | 461 | 412 | 92 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 301 | 302 | 603 | 79 | 281 | 22 | 9 | 277 | 73 | -15 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +10 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4870 | 4320 | 1062 | 188 | 1 | 83 | 458 | 989 | 47 | 37 | 13 | 246 | 325 | 347 | 672 | 102 | 299 | 20 | 9 | 305 | 95 | -48 | +2 | -13 | +21 | +106 | 6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 132 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 244 | 323 | 345 | 668 | 101 | 297 | 20 | 9 | 305 | 95 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6728 | 5920 | 1472 | 255 | 6 | 114 | 666 | 1350 | 83 | 77 | 24 | 249 | 333 | 352 | 685 | 103 | 302 | 20 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -51 | +3 | -14 | +24 | +120 | 8.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 143 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 130 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 333 | 355 | 688 | 105 | 304 | 20 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 40 PAwOBA .444 → .343 (−101)K% 12.5% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 14.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 4.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 15.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 3.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.67% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .444 → .343; ISO .333 → .205; BABIP .227 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 558 PAwOBA .380 → .338 (−43)K% 12.7% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.72% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.82% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 12.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.78% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 25.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.46% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.91% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .380 → .338; ISO .108 → .097; BABIP .332 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 396 PAwOBA .345 → .310 (−35)K% 19.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.90% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 10.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×1.042 | 26.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×1.048 | ×1.042 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | ×1.042 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .345 → .310; ISO .120 → .099; BABIP .315 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 97 PAwOBA .426 → .330 (−95)K% 20.6% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.62% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.65% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 12.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.04% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 30.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.54% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .426 → .330; ISO .122 → .113; BABIP .442 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 85 PAwOBA .425 → .372 (−53)K% 10.6% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.59% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.12% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 18.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .425 → .372; ISO .250 → .236; BABIP .298 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).