Andre Lipcius
3B Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/A+DET | 444 | .273/.369/.423 | 12 | 1 | 86 | — | .244/.317/.363 | |
| 2023 | 25 | MLBDET | 38 | .286/.342/.400 | 1 | 0 | 116 | -0.0 | ||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 682 | .267/.348/.444 | 25 | 10 | 82 | — | .232/.291/.379 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAACWS | 421 | .240/.322/.447 | 18 | 3 | 56 | — | .188/.255/.317 | |
| 2026 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 16 | .228/.290/.372 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBCWS | 74 | .226/.288/.366 | 2 | 1 | 83 | -0.0 | ||
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 283 | 253 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 57 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 273 | 345 | 360 | 705 | 87 | 344 | 20 | 10 | 320 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 385 | 341 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 82 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 315 | 378 | 693 | 144 | 280 | 21 | 10 | 310 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 98 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 368 | 482 | 850 | 205 | 299 | 16 | 12 | 364 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 188 | 159 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 302 | 397 | 453 | 850 | 151 | 354 | 18 | 13 | 373 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 372 | 303 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 264 | 396 | 426 | 821 | 162 | 295 | 15 | 16 | 370 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 38 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 342 | 400 | 742 | 114 | 346 | 21 | 8 | 334 | 116 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 419 | 360 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 74 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 367 | 419 | 787 | 147 | 311 | 18 | 12 | 350 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 25 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 400 | 476 | 876 | 190 | 333 | 20 | 16 | 391 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 636 | 561 | 152 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 145 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 271 | 353 | 458 | 811 | 187 | 322 | 23 | 11 | 358 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 46 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 283 | 262 | 545 | 48 | 250 | 13 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 371 | 89 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 77 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 322 | 447 | 770 | 208 | 253 | 18 | 9 | 337 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 38 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 342 | 400 | 742 | 114 | 346 | 21 | 8 | 334 | 112 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 283 | 260 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 285 | 304 | 589 | 77 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 385 | 351 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 97 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 270 | 328 | 598 | 120 | 260 | 25 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 98 | 86 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 305 | 419 | 724 | 186 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 188 | 166 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 283 | 353 | 404 | 757 | 120 | 339 | 21 | 10 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 372 | 320 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 69 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 231 | 333 | 366 | 699 | 134 | 266 | 19 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 38 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 342 | 400 | 742 | 114 | 346 | 21 | 8 | 340 | 116 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 419 | 375 | 91 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 314 | 357 | 671 | 115 | 283 | 21 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 25 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 455 | 815 | 182 | 294 | 24 | 12 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 636 | 583 | 135 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 46 | 176 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 232 | 291 | 379 | 670 | 148 | 292 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 382 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 93 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 317 | 572 | 128 | 215 | 22 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 283 | 260 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 285 | 304 | 589 | 77 | 306 | 26 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 283 | 253 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 57 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 273 | 345 | 360 | 705 | 87 | 344 | 20 | 10 | 320 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 437 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 120 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 213 | 277 | 341 | 618 | 128 | 264 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 424 | 103 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 98 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 326 | 399 | 724 | 156 | 283 | 20 | 11 | 321 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 560 | 486 | 121 | 29 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 108 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 249 | 340 | 379 | 719 | 130 | 296 | 19 | 11 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 560 | 462 | 128 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 86 | 89 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 277 | 396 | 435 | 831 | 158 | 315 | 16 | 15 | 371 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 432 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 104 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 317 | 363 | 680 | 118 | 295 | 22 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 482 | 416 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 59 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 367 | 421 | 788 | 147 | 315 | 18 | 12 | 351 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 682 | 625 | 145 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 188 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 292 | 378 | 670 | 146 | 295 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 682 | 603 | 161 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 71 | 151 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 267 | 348 | 444 | 793 | 177 | 316 | 22 | 10 | 351 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 382 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 93 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 317 | 572 | 128 | 218 | 22 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 371 | 89 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 77 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 322 | 447 | 770 | 208 | 253 | 18 | 9 | 337 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 283 | 260 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 285 | 304 | 589 | 77 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 441 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 120 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 277 | 338 | 615 | 127 | 259 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 560 | 488 | 121 | 29 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 108 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 248 | 340 | 377 | 717 | 129 | 291 | 19 | 11 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 434 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 104 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 317 | 362 | 678 | 118 | 289 | 22 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 682 | 624 | 145 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 188 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 292 | 378 | 670 | 146 | 292 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 384 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 93 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 315 | 570 | 128 | 215 | 22 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 682 | 624 | 145 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 188 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 292 | 378 | 670 | 146 | 292 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 421 | 384 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 93 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 315 | 570 | 128 | 215 | 22 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 380 | 346 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 91 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 289 | 369 | 658 | 142 | 276 | 24 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 290 | 372 | 662 | 144 | 277 | 25 | 6 | 295 | 85 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 272 | 249 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 287 | 363 | 651 | 138 | 275 | 24 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 74 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 140 | 276 | 24 | 7 | 292 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 112 | 103 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 304 | 369 | 673 | 126 | 297 | 23 | 7 | 306 | 80 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 144 | 23 | 0 | 17 | 46 | 151 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 241 | 302 | 365 | 666 | 124 | 295 | 23 | 7 | 306 | 80 | -6 | +1 | -26 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3338 | 3013 | 685 | 136 | 12 | 75 | 266 | 789 | 26 | 41 | 17 | 227 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 128 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +0 | -7 | +3 | +10 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 133 | 26 | 2 | 15 | 52 | 154 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 295 | 354 | 649 | 128 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -11 | +0 | -10 | +5 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 421 PAwOBA .332 → .251 (−81)K% 18.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.29% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.003 | 14.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.003 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.003 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .332 → .251; ISO .208 → .129; BABIP .253 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 636 PAwOBA .350 → .292 (−58)K% 22.8% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.80% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.80% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.126 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.01% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .350 → .292; ISO .187 → .151; BABIP .322 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 419 PAwOBA .346 → .294 (−52)K% 17.7% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.66% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.13% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 23.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .346 → .294; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .311 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 25 PAwOBA .381 → .315 (−66)K% 20.0% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 11.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.55% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .381 → .315; ISO .190 → .164; BABIP .333 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 372 PAwOBA .364 → .311 (−53)K% 15.1% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.40% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.24% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.10% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .364 → .311; ISO .162 → .142; BABIP .295 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 188 PAwOBA .369 → .336 (−34)K% 17.6% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.55% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.60% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×1.037 | ×1.048 | 24.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.32% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.048 | 9.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.037 | ×1.048 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .369 → .336; ISO .151 → .129; BABIP .354 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 385 PAwOBA .305 → .262 (−42)K% 21.3% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.30% | ÷1.026 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.13% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.69% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.95% | ÷0.935 | ×0.870 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.47% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.64% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .305 → .262; ISO .144 → .119; BABIP .280 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 98 PAwOBA .366 → .308 (−57)K% 16.3% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 22.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 18.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .366 → .308; ISO .205 → .186; BABIP .299 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .