Joey Ortiz

SS Milwaukee Brewers
Age 29 R/R 5'10" / 192 lbs MLB HR +10%K +6% Svc 3.174 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202426MLBMIL511.239/.333/.39811111072.8
202527MLBMIL506.230/.276/.317714681.1
202628MLBMIL415.270/.333/.402991051.8
2027PROJ29MLBMIL363.246/.309/.361717911.3
2028PROJ92% MLB30MLBMIL322.243/.306/.353613880.7
2029PROJ92% MLB31MLBMIL304.239/.300/.34359840.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 5.6  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.174First FA2030
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed90
Bat Spd48
xwOBA37
Avg EV25
Barrel%16
Form.248/.301/.371 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .248/.309/.363
CompsPokey Reese (age 29) · Tim Locastro (age 29) · Damian Jackson (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9691vR 75
AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .309 / .361
PA363
HR7
SB17
K%18
BB%8
BABIP287
ISO118
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +3.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+3RUNFLD: +2.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +3.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +7.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +1.10+1.1WAR
0.00.81.61.10.70.427282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
360.240
POWER40
Barrel%
163.9
Avg EV
2587.2
Bat Spd
4871.2
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
9029.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%21%▼▼24% over 75 PA (60d) · proj 18%
BB%7%▼5% over 75 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.123·.141 over 71 AB (60d) · proj .115
HR/BB2.9%·3.8% over 53 BBE (60d) · proj 2.5%
BABIP.300▲.451 over 51 BIP (60d) · proj .291
SLASH.248/.301/.371·proj .248/.309/.363
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1083 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
321
762
—
wRC+
111
70
◀◀L
wOBA
333
272
◀◀L
ISO
162
097
◀◀L
BABIP
301
257
◀L
K%
19.3%
17.1%
▶R
BB%
8.7%
8.0%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.174 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.1$9M+$7M
2028Arb-2$3M+0.7$3M+$0.1M
2029Arb-3$3M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $5M $13M +$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AABowie Baysox — 6760 14204 6141 10 233313467780 233238 219 344 56 — — — — — —
202123 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 8976 22720 10182 30 289386434821 145373 2011 364 76 — — — — — —
202224 AAANorfolk Tides — 115104 36724 9171 61 346404567971 221381 158 421 140 — — — — — —
202224 AABowie Baysox — 485435 11728415 41815 21 269339455794 186298 178 349 81 — — — — — —
202325 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 3433 7100 090 00 212212242455 30280 260 197 17 -3 +0 +1 +2 +1 -0.0
202325 AAANorfolk Tides — 389349 1123049 32693 114 321383507890 186373 188 387 110 — — — — — —
202426 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 511440 10525611 561036 116 239333398730 159283 2011 323 107 +4 -0 +10 +2 +11 2.8
202527 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 506470 1081817 27743 143 230276317593 87260 155 266 68 -19 +2 +12 +5 +11 1.1
202628 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 415371 1001449 35820 95 270333402734 132319 208 322 105 +3 -0 +1 +4 +9 1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14661314 320581127 1182689 3414 244310366676 123284 188 300 89 -19 +1 +24 +13 +32 5.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 6762 11202 4171 10 177239306545 129212 256 251 56 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 8979 18610 7242 30 228307329636 101312 278 281 76 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 115107 35623 6201 61 327368505873 178373 175 375 140 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 485447 10623410 29995 21 237291374665 136277 206 288 81 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 3433 7100 090 00 212212242455 30280 260 194 17 -3 +0 +1 +2 +1 -0.0
202325 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 389357 1002546 24843 114 280331423754 143342 226 331 110 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 511440 10627610 561036 116 241335398732 157283 2011 326 107 +4 -0 +10 +2 +11 2.8
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 506470 1091917 27743 143 232278321599 89260 155 268 68 -19 +2 +12 +5 +11 1.1
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 415371 1011549 35820 95 272335407742 135319 208 324 105 +3 -0 +1 +4 +9 1.8
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 156141 28712 11423 40 199271305576 106265 277 268 68 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW2 teams — 156136 36924 16323 40 265355449803 184317 2110 356 68 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 600554 14029613 351196 82 253304397701 144298 206 305 92 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAW2 teams — 600539 15335619 50986 82 284351477828 193315 168 363 92 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 423390 1072646 24933 114 274321408729 133340 226 320 103 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 423382 1193149 32783 114 312369484854 173365 188 372 103 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 511440 10627610 561036 116 241335398732 157288 2011 326 107 +4 -0 +10 +2 +11 2.8
202426 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 511440 10525611 561036 116 239333398730 159283 2011 323 107 +4 -0 +10 +2 +11 2.8
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 506470 1091917 27743 143 232278321599 89262 155 268 68 -19 +2 +12 +5 +11 1.1
202527 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 506470 1081817 27743 143 230276317593 87260 155 266 68 -19 +2 +12 +5 +11 1.1
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 415371 1011549 35820 95 272335407742 135323 208 324 105 +3 -0 +1 +4 +9 1.8
202628 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 415371 1001449 35820 95 270333402734 132319 208 322 105 +3 -0 +1 +4 +9 1.8
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 156141 28712 11423 40 199271305576 106269 277 268 68 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 600554 14029613 351196 82 253304397701 144295 206 305 92 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 423393 1072646 24933 114 272321405726 132337 226 320 103 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 511444 10627610 561036 116 239335394729 155283 2011 326 107 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 506471 1091917 27743 143 231278321599 89260 155 268 68 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 415377 1011549 35820 95 268335401736 133319 208 324 105 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 511444 10627610 561036 116 239335394729 155283 2011 326 107 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 506471 1091917 27743 143 231278321599 89260 155 268 68 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 415377 1011549 35820 95 268335401736 133319 208 324 105 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEMIL 100% 453412 1021638 36832 214 249311363675 115291 188 302 91 -5 +3 +3 +5 +10 1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXMIL 100% 363330 821237 29671 173 246309361670 115287 188 300 91 -4 +2 +2 +4 +8 1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEMIL 92% 350319 791236 27651 143 246308356664 110290 198 298 88 -5 +2 +0 +4 +8 0.8
202931 MLB MLEMIL 92% 330300 721125 26631 92 242303346649 104287 198 292 84 -6 +1 -1 +4 +7 0.5
203032 MLB MLEMIL 92% 306279 661024 23601 62 236296333630 97283 208 284 78 -8 +0 -1 +3 +7 0.1
202830 MLB CTXMIL 92% 322293 711026 25601 133 243306353659 110285 198 296 88 -5 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.7
202931 MLB CTXMIL 92% 304276 661025 24581 92 239300343644 104283 198 290 84 -6 +1 -1 +3 +7 0.4
203032 MLB CTXMIL 92% 282257 61924 22551 51 233294330625 97279 208 282 78 -7 +1 -1 +3 +6 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 23742140 518871742 18944112 6120 242307357665 115284 198 296 90 -37 +4 +23 +23 +51 6.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 14224511 521213 175 242307357664 114285 198 296 90 -10 +1 +6 +6 +14 1.8
Career— MLE — 39603594 8911693269 29376825 10330 248309370679 122295 197 302 90 -42 +6 +25 +28 +61 7.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 14628511 481264 175 247308368676 120295 197 302 90 -10 +1 +6 +6 +14 1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 389 PAwOBA .382 → .331 (−51)K% 17.7% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.74%÷0.980×1.200——21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.23%÷0.948×0.690—×1.0336.19%
HBP% /PA0.77%—×0.940—×1.0330.75%
Singles /BIP24.64%÷1.019×0.930×1.005×1.03323.37%
Doubles /BIP10.71%÷1.015×0.830×1.005×1.0339.10%
Triples /BIP1.43%÷0.900×0.970×1.005×1.0331.60%
Home runs /BIP3.21%÷0.995×0.700—×1.0332.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .382 → .331; ISO .186 → .153; BABIP .373 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 485 PAwOBA .341 → .288 (−53)K% 16.7% → 20.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.70%÷0.992×1.220——20.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.25%÷0.998×0.700—×1.0125.85%
HBP% /PA1.03%—×0.850—×1.0120.89%
Singles /BIP19.77%÷0.995×0.970×0.995×1.01219.42%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷1.055×0.860×0.995×1.0126.50%
Triples /BIP1.13%÷0.900×0.950×0.995×1.0121.20%
Home runs /BIP4.24%÷1.170×0.780—×1.0122.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .341 → .288; ISO .186 → .142; BABIP .298 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 115 PAwOBA .413 → .375 (−38)K% 14.8% → 17.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.78%÷1.017×1.200——17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.83%÷1.048×0.690—×1.0485.40%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.940—×1.0480.86%
Singles /BIP26.44%÷0.952×0.930×1.008×1.04827.26%
Doubles /BIP8.05%÷1.000×0.830×1.008×1.0487.05%
Triples /BIP2.30%÷1.130×0.970×1.008×1.0482.08%
Home runs /BIP4.60%÷0.970×0.700—×1.0483.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .413 → .375; ISO .221 → .183; BABIP .381 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 89 PAwOBA .360 → .281 (−78)K% 20.2% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.22%÷1.002×1.350——27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.24%÷0.974×0.710—×0.9988.17%
HBP% /PA2.25%—×0.810—×0.9981.82%
Singles /BIP22.41%÷1.026×0.910×0.981×0.99819.46%
Doubles /BIP12.07%÷0.989×0.830×0.981×0.9989.91%
Triples /BIP3.45%÷1.150×0.820×0.981×0.9982.41%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.041×0.830—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .360 → .281; ISO .145 → .108; BABIP .373 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 67 PAwOBA .334 → .251 (−83)K% 20.9% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.90%÷0.983×1.220——25.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.96%÷1.065×0.690—×1.0275.96%
HBP% /PA1.49%—×0.850—×1.0271.30%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷0.978×0.940×0.950×1.02716.32%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷0.995×0.870×0.950×1.0273.71%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.920×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP8.70%÷1.258×0.780—×1.0275.54%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .334 → .251; ISO .233 → .152; BABIP .238 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).