Santiago Espinal

3B Reno Aces

Age 32 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 6.325 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBCIN	391	.246/.298/.356	9	11	77	-0.1
2025	30	MLBCIN	328	.243/.294/.282	0	2	63	-0.5
2026	31	AAAARI	144	.266/.359/.387	2	7	72	—	.231/.296/.315
2026	31	MLBLAD	60	.268/.281/.375	1	0	76	0.1
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBARI	19	.253/.305/.346	0	0	79	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBARI	169	.244/.296/.328	2	2	72	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.325First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd29

Speed27

xwOBA23

Avg EV12

Barrel%10

CompsDixon Machado (age 31) · Gil Velazquez (age 32) · John McDonald (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8579vR 63

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .305 / .346

PA19

HR0

K%16

BB%5

BABIP291

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

460.248

POWER35

Barrel%

101.4

Avg EV

1286.2

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2726.4

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 719 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

257

462

—

wRC+

108

◀◀L

wOBA

327

247

◀◀L

ISO

141

044

◀◀L

BABIP

285

261

◀L

9.7%

14.5%

◀◀L

BB%

7.4%

5.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.325 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	99	86	21	2	0	0	10	11	1	1	0	244	330	267	597	23	280	11	10	278	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Greenville Drive	—	544	492	138	18	4	4	39	66	3	20	6	280	337	358	695	77	314	12	7	310	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	164	147	42	9	2	1	14	22	2	2	1	286	356	395	750	109	328	13	9	337	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	354	321	97	18	4	9	24	45	5	9	4	302	360	467	827	165	326	13	7	363	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	64	56	14	3	1	0	7	7	0	2	3	250	333	339	673	89	280	11	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	112	104	33	6	0	2	7	23	0	2	2	317	360	433	793	115	392	21	6	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	409	367	102	21	1	5	35	50	2	10	11	278	344	381	726	104	310	12	9	325	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	66	60	16	4	0	0	4	16	0	1	0	267	312	333	646	67	356	24	6	285	78	-2	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	246	222	69	13	1	2	22	30	1	6	1	311	376	405	781	95	353	12	9	352	123	+7	+1	+4	+1	+5	1.9
2022	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	491	449	120	25	0	7	36	68	2	6	6	267	324	370	694	102	300	14	7	311	96	-3	-1	+8	+2	+11	1.7
2023	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	254	230	57	14	0	2	18	36	3	2	1	248	311	335	646	87	285	14	7	291	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2023	28	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	15	13	4	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	308	400	385	785	77	364	13	13	360	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	357	88	12	0	9	24	54	2	11	1	246	298	356	653	109	265	14	6	289	77	-11	+2	-2	+1	+8	-0.1
2025	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	301	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	243	294	282	577	40	275	12	6	262	63	-15	+0	+1	+1	+7	-0.5
2026	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	56	15	3	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	268	281	375	656	107	292	13	2	276	76	-2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.1
2026	31	AAA	Reno Aces	—	144	124	33	7	1	2	17	24	1	7	2	266	359	387	746	121	313	17	12	335	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1836	1675	438	83	1	21	126	250	9	28	10	261	317	350	666	88	294	14	7	298	88	-26	+2	+12	+8	+40	3.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	99	90	17	1	0	0	6	16	1	1	0	189	247	200	447	11	226	16	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	544	506	123	15	3	2	25	89	3	20	6	243	283	296	579	53	282	16	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	164	151	40	8	2	1	10	26	2	2	1	265	319	364	683	99	304	16	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	354	328	80	16	3	7	17	65	5	9	4	244	291	375	666	131	278	18	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	112	106	29	5	0	2	5	28	0	2	2	274	306	377	684	104	349	25	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	409	377	90	16	1	5	25	61	2	10	11	239	290	326	616	88	270	15	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	66	60	16	4	0	0	4	16	0	1	0	267	312	333	646	67	356	24	6	284	78	-2	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	246	222	69	13	1	2	22	30	1	6	1	311	376	405	781	95	353	12	9	351	123	+7	+1	+4	+1	+5	1.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	491	450	120	25	0	7	35	68	2	6	6	267	322	369	691	102	300	14	7	309	96	-3	-1	+8	+2	+11	1.7
2023	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	254	231	57	14	0	2	17	36	3	2	1	247	307	333	640	87	285	14	7	288	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2023	28	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	286	333	357	690	71	307	20	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	358	87	12	0	8	23	54	2	11	1	243	292	344	636	101	265	14	6	282	77	-11	+2	-2	+1	+8	-0.1
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	301	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	243	294	282	577	40	275	12	6	261	63	-15	+0	+1	+1	+7	-0.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	56	15	3	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	268	281	375	656	107	292	13	2	281	76	-2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.1
2026	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	144	130	30	6	1	1	11	29	1	7	2	231	296	315	611	85	278	20	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	99	90	17	1	0	0	6	16	1	1	0	189	247	200	447	11	230	16	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	99	86	21	2	0	0	10	11	1	1	0	244	330	267	597	23	280	11	10	278	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	544	506	123	15	3	2	25	89	3	20	6	243	283	296	579	53	288	16	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	544	492	138	18	4	4	39	66	3	20	6	280	337	358	695	77	314	12	7	310	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	582	538	133	27	5	8	31	102	7	13	8	247	297	361	657	113	289	18	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	582	524	153	30	7	10	45	74	7	13	8	292	356	433	789	141	321	13	8	349	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	521	483	118	21	1	6	30	89	2	12	13	244	291	329	620	85	288	17	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	521	471	135	27	1	7	42	73	2	12	13	287	348	393	740	106	327	14	8	330	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	66	60	16	4	0	0	4	16	0	1	0	267	312	333	646	67	356	24	6	284	78	-2	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	66	60	16	4	0	0	4	16	0	1	0	267	312	333	646	67	356	24	6	285	78	-2	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	246	222	69	13	1	2	22	30	1	6	1	311	376	405	781	95	353	12	9	351	123	+7	+1	+4	+1	+5	1.9
2021	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	246	222	69	13	1	2	22	30	1	6	1	311	376	405	781	95	353	12	9	352	123	+7	+1	+4	+1	+5	1.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	491	450	120	25	0	7	35	68	2	6	6	267	322	369	691	102	299	14	7	309	96	-3	-1	+8	+2	+11	1.7
2022	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	491	449	120	25	0	7	36	68	2	6	6	267	324	370	694	102	300	14	7	311	96	-3	-1	+8	+2	+11	1.7
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	269	245	60	15	0	2	18	39	3	3	1	245	305	331	635	86	283	14	7	287	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	269	243	61	15	0	2	20	38	3	3	1	251	316	337	653	86	289	14	7	295	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	358	87	12	0	8	23	54	2	11	1	243	292	344	636	101	263	14	6	282	77	-11	+2	-2	+1	+8	-0.1
2024	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	357	88	12	0	9	24	54	2	11	1	246	298	356	653	109	265	14	6	289	77	-11	+2	-2	+1	+8	-0.1
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	301	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	243	294	282	577	40	275	12	6	261	63	-15	+0	+1	+1	+7	-0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	301	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	243	294	282	577	40	275	12	6	262	63	-15	+0	+1	+1	+7	-0.5
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	204	186	45	9	1	2	12	37	1	7	2	242	291	333	625	91	289	18	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	204	180	48	10	1	3	18	32	1	7	2	267	337	383	720	117	306	16	9	317	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	99	92	17	1	0	0	6	16	1	1	0	185	247	196	443	11	226	16	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	544	511	123	15	3	2	25	89	3	20	6	241	283	294	576	53	282	16	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	582	539	133	27	5	8	31	102	7	13	8	247	297	360	657	113	286	18	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	521	484	118	21	1	6	30	89	2	12	13	244	291	329	620	85	287	17	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	66	62	16	4	0	0	4	16	0	1	0	258	312	323	635	65	356	24	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	246	221	69	13	1	2	22	30	1	6	1	312	376	407	783	95	353	12	9	351	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	491	451	120	25	0	7	35	68	2	6	6	266	322	368	690	102	300	14	7	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	269	246	60	15	0	2	18	39	3	3	1	244	305	329	634	85	286	14	7	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	363	87	12	0	8	23	54	2	11	1	240	292	339	631	99	265	14	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	303	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	241	294	281	575	40	275	12	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	204	189	45	9	1	2	12	37	1	7	2	238	291	328	619	90	282	18	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	391	363	87	12	0	8	23	54	2	11	1	240	292	339	631	99	265	14	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	328	303	73	12	0	0	21	38	1	2	1	241	294	281	575	40	275	12	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	204	189	45	9	1	2	12	37	1	7	2	238	291	328	619	90	282	18	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	303	279	69	12	1	4	20	47	1	6	2	246	299	335	634	89	282	16	7	286	79	-7	+0	+1	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	253	305	346	651	94	291	16	5	293	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	169	155	37	6	0	2	11	27	1	2	1	238	290	318	607	79	276	16	7	275	72	-6	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	169	155	39	7	1	2	11	27	1	2	1	244	296	328	624	84	284	16	7	281	72	-6	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2005	1830	477	90	2	23	137	277	10	30	11	261	316	350	665	89	294	14	7	297	77	-32	+2	+8	+8	+43	3.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	154	29	1	7	44	90	3	10	4	260	314	347	661	88	294	14	7	297	77	-10	+1	+3	+3	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4104	3772	942	168	12	41	251	635	25	88	41	250	301	333	634	84	289	15	6	282	77	-36	+2	+9	+9	+48	3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	149	27	2	6	40	101	4	14	6	250	301	332	633	82	289	16	6	282	77	-11	+1	+3	+3	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 144 PAwOBA .329 → .274 (−55)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.81%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.75%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.62%
Singles /BIP	23.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.034	×0.952	21.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.034	×0.952	5.72%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.034	×0.952	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .329 → .274; ISO .121 → .097; BABIP .313 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 15 PAwOBA .351 → .275 (−76)K% 13.3% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷1.018	×1.360	—	—	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.062	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.988	×0.920	—	×0.940	23.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.034	×0.830	—	×0.940	6.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.279	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 122, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .351 → .275; ISO .077 → .059; BABIP .364 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 409 PAwOBA .316 → .270 (−46)K% 12.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.22%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	14.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.31%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.998	6.07%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.41%
Singles /BIP	23.66%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.62%	÷1.064	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	5.08%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	1.58%	÷0.860	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.43%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .316 → .270; ISO .104 → .088; BABIP .310 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 112 PAwOBA .342 → .289 (−54)K% 20.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.54%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	25.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.86%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	27.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	6.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.909	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.47%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.14%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .342 → .289; ISO .115 → .096; BABIP .392 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 354 PAwOBA .355 → .288 (−68)K% 12.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.71%	÷0.979	×1.420	—	—	18.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.50%	÷1.011	×0.750	—	×0.988	4.76%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	1.30%
Singles /BIP	23.91%	÷1.015	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷0.977	×0.960	×0.950	×0.988	6.01%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.005	×0.810	×0.950	×0.988	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	3.26%	÷1.147	×0.880	—	×0.988	2.47%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 101, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .288; ISO .165 → .130; BABIP .326 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 164 PAwOBA .330 → .293 (−37)K% 13.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.41%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.54%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.29%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.05%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.965	×1.012	22.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.965	×1.012	6.17%
Triples /BIP	1.60%	÷1.086	×0.950	×0.965	×1.012	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	0.80%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×1.012	0.67%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 117, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .330 → .293; ISO .109 → .093; BABIP .328 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AGreenville Drive · 544 PAwOBA .305 → .256 (−49)K% 12.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.13%	÷0.995	×1.340	—	—	16.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.17%	÷1.020	×0.660	—	×0.990	4.59%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.770	—	×0.990	0.42%
Singles /BIP	26.29%	÷0.999	×0.920	×1.001	×0.990	24.01%
Doubles /BIP	4.23%	÷0.972	×0.820	×1.001	×0.990	3.53%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.092	×0.940	×1.001	×0.990	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	0.94%	÷1.534	×0.820	—	×0.990	0.50%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 207, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 118, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .305 → .256; ISO .077 → .058; BABIP .314 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGCL Red Sox · 99 PAwOBA .271 → .206 (−65)K% 11.1% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.10%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	6.11%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.71%
Singles /BIP	25.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.022	×0.975	20.69%
Doubles /BIP	2.67%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.022	×0.975	1.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.022	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .271 → .206; ISO .023 → .017; BABIP .280 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ramon Santiagolast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,736 PA	4.1	2,736	30	30	244	314	332	+18	+31	7.4	7.8
/162	664	7	7	+4.4	+7.4	1.8	pk7: 8
#2Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	3.7	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
/162	664	7	12	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Kevin Newmanlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,343 PA	3.5	2,343	28	47	259	300	355	+20	+8	5.1	5.5
/162	664	8	13	+5.7	+2.2	1.5	pk7: 6
#4Casey Candaele'86-'97 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,132 PA	3.2	2,132	11	37	246*	305*	350*	+5	+26	4.2	4.6
/162	664	3	12	+1.5	+8.1	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Brent Gates'93-'99 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,625 PA	4.0	2,625	25	18	253*	313*	350*	+8	+11	4.2	4.2
/162	664	6	5	+2.0	+2.8	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Bobby Valentine'71-'79 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,909 PA	2.9	1,909	12	27	258*	316*	358*	+2	+1	3.1	3.8
/162	664	4	9	+0.6	+0.2	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.0	2,024	23	30	259	310	346	+7	+17	3.1	3.4
/162	664	8	10	+2.4	+5.5	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Santiago Espinal (OGILVIE)	32	50	35	50	55	244/297/332	88	282	2	4	16%	6%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dixon Machado 2023 · MLB	31	52→57	39→45	48→55	50	249/309/334	85	289	6	10	16%	7%	84	+0.1	219/297/306	87	264	8	7	19%	9%	74	-0.6	196/285/266	70	239	7	4	20%	10%	59	-0.8
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→57	39→45	50	46	238/285/328	91	282	6	14	18%	6%	74	-0.6	247/303/312	65	296	4	8	17%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/292	45	296	2	5	16%	8%	71	-0.6
✕John McDonald 2007 · MLB	32	49	40	53→50	49	232/282/322	91	260	7	14	14%	6%	72	-0.7	232/270/323	91	262	6	11	14%	4%	67	-1.1	235/265/358	123	252	13	4	13%	3%	74	-0.2
✕Erick Almonte 2010 · AAA	32	49→47	40	47→45	48	237/296/331	94	294	8	7	22%	8%	78	-0.3	238/288/326	88	304	7	7	23%	6%	74	-0.5	247/295/331	84	312	6	5	22%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Shane Robinson 2016 · MLB	31	50→56	38→45	52→55	52	236/297/320	84	272	5	13	15%	8%	76	-0.4	232/280/309	77	268	4	18	14%	6%	67	-1.1	233/280/306	73	261	5	18	13%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Daniel Robertson 2018 · MLB	32	53→58	38→40	49→55	48	250/294/332	82	281	5	15	14%	6%	78	-0.3	232/295/343	111	273	10	15	18%	7%	82	-0.0	216/288/326	110	254	10	16	18%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Wilson Valdez 2010 · MLB	32	52→62	36→40	48→55	49	245/294/306	61	277	3	11	13%	6%	72	-0.7	239/277/318	79	274	4	11	14%	5%	68	-1.0	238/272/311	73	273	3	10	14%	4%	64	-0.6
✕Andrew Romine 2018 · MLB	32	49→55	42→40	50→55	47	238/296/343	105	287	8	15	20%	7%	82	-0.0	228/278/327	99	281	9	16	21%	6%	71	-0.8	225/270/298	73	285	6	14	22%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Heber Gomez 2010 · AAA	32	53→61	38→40	49→50	50	252/304/327	76	277	5	13	12%	6%	80	-0.1	238/282/315	77	260	5	11	10%	5%	70	-0.9	245/283/319	73	272	3	8	11%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Luis Ordaz 2008 · AAA	32	52	39→40	47→50	42	250/277/336	86	288	6	11	16%	3%	72	-0.7	241/274/344	103	286	9	12	19%	4%	73	-0.6	257/282/368	111	289	10	4	15%	2%	81	-0.0
✕Fernando Rios 2011 · AAA	32	52	39→40	42→50	50	244/297/324	80	273	6	7	13%	7%	77	-0.3	228/279/312	84	266	7	9	17%	6%	68	-1.0	215/256/250	35	242	3	4	12%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Joe McEwing 2005 · MLB	32	48→52	38→45	49→50	45	229/277/306	77	280	6	10	20%	6%	65	-1.2	235/270/320	85	285	8	12	20%	4%	65	-1.2	233/264/313	80	285	7	11	21%	3%	60	-1.1
✕Brendan Ryan 2014 · MLB	32	43→53	39→40	48→55	49	208/275/294	86	254	6	11	20%	8%	63	-1.4	202/258/280	78	267	5	8	25%	6%	53	-2.1	185/233/235	50	261	1	6	28%	5%	31	-1.2
✕Darwin Barney 2017 · MLB	31	50→57	41→40	44→50	47	241/288/339	98	272	9	7	15%	6%	77	-0.3	235/284/346	111	273	11	11	18%	6%	78	-0.3	227/270/321	94	264	10	12	18%	5%	67	-0.7
✕Angel Chavez 2013 · AAA	32	49→54	42→45	48→50	50	242/297/339	97	276	11	8	17%	7%	81	-0.1	237/298/344	107	280	10	11	18%	8%	82	+0.0	231/291/304	74	273	4	8	16%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Darren Lewis 2001 · MLB	33	50	40→30	48→55	53	235/299/324	89	258	7	17	12%	8%	78	-0.3	246/307/342	96	279	7	14	14%	7%	86	+0.3	272/317/355	83	315	3	17	14%	4%	92	+0.2
✕Ali Castillo 2021 · AAA	32	51→61	41→40	44→55	45	247/284/352	105	280	8	8	15%	5%	78	-0.3	218/256/277	59	259	3	11	16%	5%	51	-2.3	210/246/239	29	250	0	11	15%	4%	36	-1.7
✕Sergio Palafox 2011 · AAA	31	49	37→40	46→45	50	229/284/304	75	262	5	10	14%	7%	68	-1.0	217/267/302	85	251	6	11	16%	6%	61	-1.5	223/255/266	44	261	1	8	15%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Jason Ellison 2009 · MLB	31	47→54	37→40	46→50	49	222/286/295	73	269	4	14	18%	7%	67	-1.1	221/279/299	78	273	6	14	20%	7%	65	-1.2	221/276/282	61	273	5	15	20%	6%	57	-1.5
✕Adrián Sanchez 2022 · MLB	31	52→48	42→45	48→50	43	250/289/353	103	296	9	13	19%	5%	81	-0.1	224/267/327	103	282	7	10	22%	5%	67	-1.1	207/244/298	91	266	3	6	22%	5%	47	-1.1

Santiago Espinal

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps