Oliver Carrillo — OGILVIE

Oliver CarrilloLF Asheville Tourists

Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 146 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .259 / .283

PA12

HR0

K%38

BB%9

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	20	ROK	DSL Padres	—	155	125	41	8	2	9	26	35	3	4	0	328	455	640	1.095	312	390	23	17	468	203	+19	+1	—	—	+3	2.4
2023	21	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	145	44	8	0	11	66	45	12	4	1	303	547	586	1.133	283	363	20	29	492	219	+32	+0	—	—	+5	3.8
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	236	215	48	12	0	10	20	82	0	0	0	223	289	419	708	195	306	35	8	312	97	-1	+0	—	—	+5	0.4
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	173	138	32	6	1	6	29	57	5	0	2	232	384	420	804	188	342	33	17	364	132	+7	-1	—	—	+4	1.0
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	103	83	14	2	0	1	15	30	3	1	0	169	317	229	546	60	241	29	15	265	65	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	23	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	92	74	18	4	0	3	12	23	5	2	0	243	385	419	804	176	306	25	13	363	132	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	135	31	6	1	7	16	51	3	4	0	230	325	444	769	215	290	33	10	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	171	39	7	0	9	40	64	12	4	1	228	408	427	835	199	277	28	18	363	132	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	236	222	32	7	0	6	13	111	0	0	0	144	191	257	448	113	250	47	6	205	25	-21	+0	—	—	+5	-1.6
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	173	149	24	4	1	4	18	79	5	0	2	161	273	282	555	121	289	46	10	251	56	-9	-1	—	—	+4	-0.6
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	103	88	11	1	0	1	10	41	3	1	0	125	238	170	408	45	205	40	10	191	15	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	92	79	16	3	0	3	7	33	5	2	0	203	308	354	662	152	273	36	8	277	74	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	135	31	6	1	7	16	51	3	4	0	230	325	444	769	215	308	33	10	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	—	155	125	41	8	2	9	26	35	3	4	0	328	455	640	1.095	312	390	23	17	468	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	171	39	7	0	9	40	64	12	4	1	228	408	427	835	199	300	28	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	145	44	8	0	11	66	45	12	4	1	303	547	586	1.133	283	363	20	29	492	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	371	57	11	1	11	31	190	5	0	2	154	229	278	506	124	267	46	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	409	353	80	18	1	16	49	139	5	0	2	227	329	419	749	193	320	34	12	334	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	167	26	4	0	3	17	74	8	3	0	156	266	234	499	78	247	38	9	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	195	157	32	6	0	4	27	53	8	3	0	204	349	318	667	115	272	27	14	311	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	135	31	6	1	7	16	51	3	4	0	230	325	444	769	215	290	33	10	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	171	39	7	0	9	40	64	12	4	1	228	408	427	835	199	277	28	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	370	57	11	1	11	31	190	5	0	2	154	229	278	507	124	266	46	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	168	26	4	0	3	17	74	8	3	0	155	266	232	498	77	237	38	9	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	171	39	7	0	9	40	64	12	4	1	228	408	427	835	199	277	28	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	370	57	11	1	11	31	190	5	0	2	154	229	278	507	124	266	46	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	168	26	4	0	3	17	74	8	3	0	155	266	232	498	77	237	38	9	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	24	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	12	11	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	91	167	91	258		261	42	8	252	57	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	212	187	34	6	1	5	19	76	4	2	1	182	271	305	576	123	265	36	9	261	63	-9	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	64	57	11	2	0	2	6	23	1	1	0	193	281	333	615	140	267	36	9	247	63	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	64	57	11	2	0	2	6	23	1	1	0	193	281	333	615	140	281	36	9	247	69	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	111	20	0	20	61	234	10	10	0	192	280	330	610	138	280	36	9	247	69	-29	+2	+0	-7	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1208	1042	188	34	3	35	124	460	32	13	4	180	287	320	607	139	275	38	10	271	69	-10	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	101	18	2	19	67	248	17	7	2	180	287	321	608	141	274	38	10	271	69	-29	+0	+0	-7	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oliver Carrillo (OGILVIE)	24	20	43	44	49	170/259/283	113	261	3	1	38%	9%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2023 · A	24	36→38	46→45	43→45	37	187/254/312	125	281	14	3	37%	6%	60	-1.6	199/273/309	110	266	11	6	28%	7%	67	-1.1	192/273/294	102	248	10	6	25%	7%	61	-1.0
✕Michael Ratterree 2015 · AA	24	36→30	48→45	44→40	40	185/258/331	146	284	15	5	38%	8%	66	-1.1	173/250/275	102	295	9	5	41%	8%	51	-2.3	105/198/161	56	199	4	0	44%	8%	6	-2.6
✕Pat McInerney 2019 · A	24	33	45	47→45	43	166/256/283	118	278	13	7	42%	10%	55	-2.0	184/258/299	115	308	12	6	41%	8%	58	-1.7	156/230/271	115	256	14	3	42%	7%	39	-1.6
✕Jhalan Jackson 2017 · A	24	38→34	46→50	42→45	38	195/249/326	131	282	13	6	35%	6%	60	-1.6	190/255/326	136	305	15	6	40%	7%	63	-1.3	171/246/307	136	281	17	6	43%	7%	53	-1.3
✕Spencer Henson 2023 · A	25	37	47→50	46→40	40	188/263/321	132	290	16	6	39%	8%	65	-1.2	198/256/329	131	288	15	5	35%	6%	65	-1.2	187/243/330	143	258	19	1	35%	4%	59	-0.9
✕Tate Blackman 2019 · A	24	38→35	45	43→40	40	190/262/305	114	289	13	5	37%	8%	61	-1.5	180/251/269	89	321	9	5	43%	7%	49	-2.4	129/208/180	51	259	5	1	48%	8%	12	-2.8
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2023 · AA	24	38→35	49→50	49→45	36	194/258/335	141	295	17	8	39%	6%	67	-1.1	202/267/325	123	314	14	6	38%	7%	68	-1.0	183/255/292	109	285	14	1	38%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Brandon Parker 2023 · A	24	41	46→45	45→50	43	198/284/327	129	301	13	6	36%	8%	75	-0.5	194/263/315	121	316	13	12	40%	7%	63	-1.3	168/233/281	113	282	13	15	43%	6%	42	-1.2
✕Conor Bierfeldt 2015 · A	24	33→31	45→50	49→30	38	178/231/302	124	247	12	4	33%	6%	49	-2.4	188/245/333	145	253	16	3	32%	6%	61	-1.5	177/237/330	153	230	18	1	31%	6%	55	-1.3
✕Will Wilson 2022 · AA	24	37→38	47→50	51→45	39	189/255/319	130	283	15	8	37%	7%	61	-1.5	198/259/322	124	274	15	6	32%	7%	63	-1.3	191/251/297	106	252	13	4	29%	7%	52	-1.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/275	101	255	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	186/255/286	100	272	9	8	33%	8%	53	-2.1	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Gabriel Garcia 2021 · A	23	35	43→45	43→45	42	176/263/286	110	274	11	6	37%	9%	58	-1.7	193/254/305	112	337	11	7	43%	7%	57	-1.8	151/210/251	100	277	11	3	47%	6%	29	-1.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Franklin Labour 2022 · A	24	39	46→45	48→50	47	188/285/320	133	303	13	11	39%	11%	74	-0.6	186/262/308	122	338	12	10	44%	8%	62	-1.4	132/200/248	116	260	13	8	52%	7%	23	-1.7
✕Wil Dalton 2022 · AA	24	34	46→45	44→50	39	181/241/306	124	262	14	6	36%	7%	53	-2.1	187/250/305	118	303	12	10	40%	6%	57	-1.8	142/212/255	113	246	12	12	45%	6%	30	-1.4
✕Ignacio Valdez 2018 · A	23	33	47→45	43→50	36	171/242/303	131	292	16	3	45%	8%	53	-2.1	188/241/282	94	340	8	5	44%	6%	47	-2.5	130/158/192	62	251	4	0	48%	3%	-8	-1.2
✕Tyler Reichenborn 2022 · A	24	36→43	42→45	42→50	40	181/251/288	108	274	9	8	35%	7%	53	-2.1	202/278/297	95	279	9	12	29%	8%	65	-1.2	198/280/282	84	265	10	14	27%	8%	60	-0.9
✕Ruben Ibarra 2023 · A	24	41→36	48→50	47→30	41	207/282/341	134	291	16	6	33%	7%	78	-0.3	200/275/341	141	273	18	3	33%	7%	75	-0.5	189/265/336	146	247	20	1	31%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→28	50	41→40	39	172/256/318	146	278	19	4	43%	8%	63	-1.4	191/275/364	173	303	23	5	42%	9%	80	-0.1	162/257/361	199	239	29	2	44%	10%	70	-0.6