Oliver Carrillo
LF Asheville Tourists| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROKDSL Padres Go… | 225 | .303/.547/.586 | 11 | 4 | 106 | — | .186/.390/.329 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+/AHOU | 409 | .227/.329/.419 | 16 | 0 | 41 | — | .155/.233/.279 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+/AHOU | 195 | .204/.349/.318 | 4 | 3 | 39 | — | .156/.265/.234 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBHOU | 245 | .214/.292/.351 | 6 | 3 | 82 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBHOU | 24 | .219/.296/.359 | 1 | 0 | 84 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 155 | 125 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 328 | 455 | 640 | 1.095 | 312 | 390 | 23 | 17 | 468 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | — | 225 | 145 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 303 | 547 | 586 | 1.133 | 283 | 363 | 20 | 29 | 492 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 236 | 215 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 289 | 419 | 708 | 195 | 306 | 35 | 8 | 312 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 173 | 138 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 57 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 232 | 384 | 420 | 804 | 188 | 342 | 33 | 17 | 364 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 103 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 317 | 229 | 546 | 60 | 241 | 29 | 15 | 265 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 92 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 385 | 419 | 804 | 176 | 306 | 25 | 13 | 363 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 155 | 134 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 179 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 142 | 230 | 28 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 225 | 167 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 54 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 390 | 329 | 719 | 144 | 217 | 24 | 20 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 236 | 222 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 196 | 275 | 471 | 126 | 241 | 46 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 173 | 147 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 163 | 285 | 286 | 571 | 122 | 284 | 44 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 103 | 89 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 124 | 228 | 169 | 396 | 45 | 194 | 39 | 9 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 92 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 308 | 308 | 615 | 115 | 264 | 34 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 155 | 134 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 179 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 142 | 227 | 28 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 155 | 125 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 328 | 455 | 640 | 1.095 | 312 | 390 | 23 | 17 | 468 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 225 | 167 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 54 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 390 | 329 | 719 | 144 | 229 | 24 | 20 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres Gold | — | 225 | 145 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 303 | 547 | 586 | 1.133 | 283 | 363 | 20 | 29 | 492 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 370 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 184 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 154 | 231 | 278 | 509 | 124 | 260 | 45 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 353 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 49 | 139 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 227 | 329 | 419 | 749 | 193 | 320 | 34 | 12 | 334 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 195 | 168 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 155 | 260 | 232 | 493 | 77 | 240 | 37 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 195 | 157 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 204 | 349 | 318 | 667 | 115 | 272 | 27 | 14 | 311 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 155 | 134 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 179 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 142 | 230 | 28 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 225 | 167 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 54 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 390 | 329 | 719 | 144 | 217 | 24 | 20 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 369 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 184 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 154 | 231 | 279 | 510 | 125 | 259 | 45 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 195 | 169 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 260 | 231 | 491 | 77 | 227 | 37 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 369 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 184 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 154 | 231 | 279 | 510 | 125 | 259 | 45 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 195 | 169 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 260 | 231 | 491 | 77 | 227 | 37 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 245 | 219 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 292 | 351 | 644 | 137 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 290 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 30% | 82 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 294 | 356 | 651 | 140 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 30% | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 296 | 359 | 655 | 140 | 290 | 29 | 8 | 294 | 84 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 409 | 701 | 182 | 286 | 29 | 8 | 294 | 63 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 135 | 27 | 0 | 27 | 54 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 291 | 408 | 698 | 181 | 285 | 29 | 8 | 294 | 63 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1124 | 965 | 163 | 31 | 2 | 27 | 121 | 394 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 169 | 281 | 289 | 570 | 120 | 246 | 35 | 11 | 262 | 63 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 558 | 95 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 70 | 228 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 170 | 282 | 292 | 574 | 122 | 248 | 35 | 11 | 262 | 63 | -13 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 103 PAwOBA .264 → .184 (−80)K% 29.1% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.13% | ÷0.977 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.56% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.75% | ÷0.984 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.297 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .264 → .184; ISO .060 → .040; BABIP .241 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 92 PAwOBA .358 → .273 (−85)K% 25.0% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .358 → .273; ISO .176 → .133; BABIP .306 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 236 PAwOBA .305 → .208 (−97)K% 34.7% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.75% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 45.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.55% | ÷0.988 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.52% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 100, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .305 → .208; ISO .195 → .134; BABIP .306 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 173 PAwOBA .357 → .255 (−102)K% 32.9% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.95% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.76% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | — | 20.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | — | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | — | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .357 → .255; ISO .188 → .127; BABIP .342 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 225 PAwOBA .482 → .325 (−157)K% 20.0% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 19.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 3.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 16.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.975 | 4.65% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 94, 2B 85, 3B 100, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 18.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .482 → .325; ISO .283 → .153; BABIP .363 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Padres · 155 PAwOBA .457 → .279 (−178)K% 22.6% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.13% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 11.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 15.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 4.75% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .457 → .279; ISO .312 → .160; BABIP .390 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).