Oliver CarrilloLF
Asheville Tourists
Age 24
R/R
5'11" / 210 lbs
A+
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
wRC+†58
AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .264 / .302
PA146
HR4
K%40
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
44→44
SPD
44→44
EYE
48→48
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.4peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-4M | $-30M | -$26M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$26M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$26M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres | 155 | 135 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .230 | .325 | .444 | .769 | .215 | .312 | 34 | 10 | .322 | 105 | +1 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 225 | 170 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 1 | .224 | .408 | .406 | .814 | .182 | .297 | 28 | 18 | .366 | 138 | +10 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | 2 teams | 409 | 372 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 188 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .153 | .226 | .277 | .503 | .124 | .263 | 46 | 7 | .225 | 31 | -32 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +12 | -2.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 195 | 169 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 0 | .154 | .255 | .231 | .486 | .077 | .240 | 37 | 8 | .227 | 32 | -15 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 146 | 129 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .178 | .269 | .302 | .571 | .124 | .281 | 40 | 9 | .261 | 58 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 10% | HOU | 212 | 187 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .187 | .276 | .326 | .602 | .139 | .284 | 38 | 9 | .270 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 25% | HOU | 296 | 261 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .192 | .282 | .326 | .608 | .134 | .285 | 37 | 9 | .276 | 69 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 43% | HOU | 340 | 300 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 124 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .197 | .285 | .340 | .625 | .143 | .286 | 36 | 9 | .279 | 71 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 52% | HOU | 368 | 324 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 133 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .194 | .285 | .330 | .615 | .136 | .286 | 36 | 9 | .279 | 71 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 69% | HOU | 378 | 333 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 138 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .192 | .283 | .324 | .607 | .132 | .285 | 37 | 9 | .276 | 70 | -13 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 78% | HOU | 383 | 338 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 141 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .189 | .279 | .320 | .598 | .130 | .283 | 37 | 9 | .273 | 67 | -14 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +11 | -0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 375 | 330 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 140 | 7 | 3 | 0 | .188 | .280 | .318 | .598 | .130 | .281 | 37 | 9 | .270 | 64 | -15 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +11 | -1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 361 | 319 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 136 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .185 | .274 | .310 | .584 | .125 | .279 | 38 | 9 | .265 | 61 | -16 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 334 | 294 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 129 | 6 | 2 | 0 | .180 | .272 | .303 | .575 | .122 | .277 | 39 | 9 | .260 | 57 | -16 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +9 | -1.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 291 | 258 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 114 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .178 | .266 | .298 | .565 | .120 | .275 | 39 | 9 | .253 | 52 | -16 | +0 | -5 | -3 | +8 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4468 | 3919 | 730 | 134 | 12 | 121 | 421 | 1681 | 92 | 45 | 9 | .186 | .280 | .319 | .600 | .133 | .284 | 38 | 9 | .271 | 65 | -175 | +5 | -20 | -48 | +127 | -11.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 570 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 61 | 245 | 13 | 7 | 1 | .186 | .279 | .321 | .600 | .135 | .283 | 38 | 9 | .271 | 65 | -25 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +18 | -1.6 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres | 155 | 125 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .328 | .455 | .640 | 1.095 | .312 | .390 | 23 | 17 | .468 | 216 | +20 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 2.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 225 | 145 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 1 | .303 | .547 | .586 | 1.133 | .283 | .363 | 20 | 29 | .492 | 234 | +34 | +0 | — | — | +6 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 236 | 215 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .223 | .289 | .419 | .708 | .195 | .306 | 35 | 8 | .312 | 97 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 173 | 138 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 57 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .232 | .384 | .420 | .804 | .188 | .342 | 33 | 17 | .364 | 136 | +7 | -1 | — | — | +5 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 103 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .169 | .317 | .229 | .546 | .060 | .241 | 29 | 15 | .265 | 61 | -5 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 92 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .243 | .385 | .419 | .804 | .176 | .306 | 25 | 13 | .363 | 136 | +4 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.7 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Oliver Carrillo (OGILVIE) | 24 | 20 | 44 | 44 | 48 | .176/.264/.302 | .126 | .281 | 4 | 1 | 40% | 9% | 58 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Joe DeCarlo 2018 · A |
24 | 37→38 | 48→50 | 44→30 | 44 | .191/.278/.326 | .135 | .272 | 16 | 3 | 34% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .197/.269/.322 | .125 | .285 | 14 | 3 | 34% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .170/.239/.264 | .094 | .250 | 11 | 0 | 35% | 7% | 33 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ruben Ibarra 2023 · A |
24 | 41→36 | 48→50 | 47→30 | 42 | .209/.285/.346 | .136 | .292 | 17 | 6 | 33% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .204/.277/.352 | .148 | .277 | 20 | 3 | 32% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 | .191/.269/.345 | .154 | .252 | 22 | 1 | 33% | 7% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Aaron Palensky 2023 · AA |
24 | 42→32 | 48→55 | 48→55 | 42 | .203/.283/.350 | .147 | .312 | 14 | 10 | 37% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .201/.287/.362 | .161 | .274 | 18 | 19 | 32% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .184/.279/.346 | .163 | .237 | 19 | 25 | 30% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Tyreque Reed 2021 · A |
24 | 40→35 | 49→55 | 42→40 | 39 | .207/.268/.354 | .147 | .287 | 17 | 4 | 33% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .213/.282/.371 | .158 | .322 | 20 | 5 | 38% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .197/.271/.358 | .161 | .298 | 22 | 3 | 40% | 8% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Michael Ratterree 2015 · AA |
24 | 37→30 | 48→45 | 44→40 | 41 | .190/.262/.337 | .147 | .283 | 15 | 5 | 37% | 8% | 65 | -0.7 | .172/.250/.277 | .105 | .288 | 9 | 4 | 40% | 8% | 44 | -2.1 | .105/.198/.161 | .056 | .199 | 4 | 0 | 44% | 8% | -6 | -2.6 |
|
✕Nellie Rodriguez 2018 · AAA |
24 | 34→40 | 50 | 47→30 | 38 | .179/.247/.324 | .145 | .291 | 18 | 2 | 43% | 8% | 55 | -1.4 | .184/.247/.326 | .142 | .322 | 18 | 3 | 45% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .174/.236/.318 | .144 | .297 | 19 | 0 | 46% | 7% | 47 | -1.2 |
|
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2023 · AA |
24 | 38→35 | 50 | 48→45 | 35 | .197/.261/.345 | .148 | .303 | 19 | 7 | 40% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .202/.267/.334 | .132 | .321 | 16 | 6 | 39% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .186/.258/.306 | .120 | .294 | 16 | 1 | 40% | 8% | 52 | -1.0 |
|
✕Franklin Labour 2022 · A |
24 | 39 | 46→45 | 48→50 | 45 | .189/.281/.320 | .131 | .308 | 13 | 11 | 40% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .183/.261/.310 | .127 | .343 | 13 | 10 | 46% | 9% | 57 | -1.2 | .129/.199/.246 | .117 | .267 | 14 | 8 | 54% | 7% | 11 | -1.7 |
|
✕Devin Harris 2012 · A |
24 | 37→39 | 49→55 | 50→40 | 36 | .192/.244/.336 | .143 | .285 | 17 | 7 | 38% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .195/.245/.352 | .157 | .273 | 18 | 4 | 34% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .203/.247/.378 | .174 | .266 | 21 | 3 | 32% | 5% | 65 | -0.5 |
|
✕Yusuf Carter 2009 · A |
24 | 36→34 | 48→50 | 50 | 34 | .193/.233/.333 | .140 | .277 | 17 | 12 | 37% | 5% | 50 | -1.7 | .220/.261/.362 | .142 | .311 | 17 | 9 | 34% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .231/.271/.374 | .143 | .318 | 19 | 5 | 33% | 5% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Jacob Butler 2007 · A |
24 | 39→41 | 47→50 | 42→30 | 41 | .198/.259/.332 | .133 | .280 | 15 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .211/.281/.363 | .152 | .279 | 18 | 2 | 30% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .208/.286/.371 | .162 | .263 | 20 | 0 | 28% | 9% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Brandon Parker 2023 · A |
24 | 40 | 46→45 | 46→50 | 42 | .196/.281/.327 | .130 | .298 | 14 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .192/.261/.317 | .125 | .314 | 14 | 11 | 40% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .164/.227/.283 | .119 | .279 | 14 | 15 | 44% | 6% | 33 | -1.2 |
|
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2023 · A |
24 | 37→39 | 46→45 | 43→45 | 37 | .192/.258/.321 | .130 | .283 | 14 | 3 | 36% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .202/.276/.318 | .116 | .274 | 12 | 6 | 30% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .195/.276/.303 | .107 | .255 | 12 | 6 | 27% | 7% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Pat McInerney 2019 · A |
24 | 34 | 45 | 48→45 | 43 | .171/.262/.293 | .121 | .281 | 13 | 7 | 41% | 10% | 54 | -1.4 | .181/.257/.298 | .117 | .302 | 12 | 6 | 41% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .156/.229/.270 | .115 | .256 | 14 | 3 | 42% | 7% | 31 | -1.6 |
|
✕Omar Meregildo 2022 · AA |
24 | 37→32 | 48→50 | 42→30 | 37 | .188/.258/.325 | .137 | .309 | 17 | 4 | 43% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .194/.258/.338 | .144 | .299 | 19 | 4 | 39% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .178/.242/.323 | .145 | .256 | 20 | 2 | 38% | 7% | 50 | -1.4 |
|
✕Landon Stephens 2022 · A |
24 | 39→29 | 48→55 | 44→40 | 36 | .184/.259/.322 | .138 | .339 | 17 | 7 | 47% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .179/.261/.355 | .176 | .282 | 24 | 4 | 43% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .159/.249/.353 | .194 | .225 | 29 | 2 | 43% | 9% | 62 | -0.7 |
|
✕Spencer Henson 2023 · A |
25 | 37 | 48→50 | 47→40 | 39 | .192/.262/.331 | .139 | .288 | 17 | 6 | 38% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .196/.252/.336 | .140 | .279 | 17 | 5 | 35% | 5% | 60 | -1.0 | .185/.237/.336 | .151 | .246 | 21 | 1 | 34% | 4% | 53 | -0.9 |
|
✕Johan Mieses 2019 · AA |
24 | 32 | 52→55 | 42→50 | 34 | .182/.230/.339 | .157 | .254 | 21 | 3 | 37% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .196/.255/.350 | .154 | .253 | 21 | 6 | 31% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .194/.269/.375 | .181 | .237 | 26 | 7 | 31% | 7% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA |
24 | 42→35 | 44→50 | 48→45 | 44 | .203/.282/.321 | .118 | .296 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.293/.355 | .159 | .317 | 19 | 5 | 41% | 10% | 83 | +0.6 | .180/.284/.345 | .165 | .293 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 11% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Logan Hill 2017 · A |
24 | 39→40 | 45→50 | 48→45 | 36 | .200/.252/.322 | .122 | .288 | 13 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .206/.268/.357 | .151 | .293 | 18 | 5 | 35% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .199/.266/.356 | .156 | .280 | 20 | 2 | 35% | 7% | 69 | -0.3 |