Bo Naylor
C Nashville Sounds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | MLBCLE | 389 | .201/.265/.350 | 13 | 6 | 71 | 1.8 | |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBCLE | 414 | .195/.286/.379 | 14 | 1 | 84 | 1.6 | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAAMIL | 257 | .241/.348/.468 | 11 | 4 | 72 | — | .191/.273/.357 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBMIL | 98 | .154/.214/.275 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 27 | MLBMIL | 102 | .202/.280/.371 | 4 | 1 | 83 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 28 | MLBMIL | 171 | .200/.278/.366 | 6 | 1 | 81 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ59% MLB | 29 | MLBMIL | 177 | .197/.275/.360 | 6 | 1 | 78 | 0.2 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | — | 139 | 117 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 274 | 384 | 402 | 786 | 128 | 341 | 20 | 15 | 354 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 399 | 97 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 104 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 243 | 318 | 421 | 739 | 178 | 296 | 23 | 9 | 321 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 356 | 313 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 188 | 280 | 332 | 612 | 144 | 255 | 31 | 10 | 278 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 290 | 245 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 75 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 257 | 368 | 514 | 882 | 257 | 306 | 26 | 13 | 385 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 220 | 170 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 271 | 431 | 471 | 902 | 200 | 333 | 21 | 20 | 401 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 230 | 198 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 53 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 237 | 341 | 470 | 810 | 232 | 267 | 23 | 13 | 357 | 125 | +7 | +1 | +5 | +9 | +5 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 270 | 217 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 396 | 498 | 893 | 244 | 273 | 19 | 18 | 393 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 354 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 265 | 350 | 615 | 150 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +16 | +7 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 359 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 184 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | +8 | +7 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 98 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 214 | 275 | 489 | 121 | 172 | 24 | 7 | 223 | 36 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 257 | 220 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 241 | 348 | 468 | 816 | 227 | 284 | 24 | 14 | 360 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1131 | 1002 | 202 | 47 | 3 | 41 | 111 | 298 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 202 | 284 | 377 | 661 | 176 | 240 | 26 | 10 | 293 | 84 | -21 | +0 | +29 | +30 | +25 | 6.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 2 | — | 139 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 275 | 296 | 571 | 96 | 275 | 29 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 413 | 82 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 139 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 199 | 253 | 346 | 599 | 148 | 258 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 356 | 324 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 148 | 220 | 265 | 486 | 117 | 219 | 39 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 290 | 253 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 87 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 319 | 415 | 734 | 190 | 290 | 30 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 220 | 182 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 58 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 231 | 358 | 396 | 753 | 165 | 304 | 26 | 15 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 230 | 199 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 236 | 336 | 467 | 804 | 231 | 267 | 23 | 13 | 353 | 125 | +7 | +1 | +5 | +9 | +5 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 270 | 232 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 328 | 409 | 738 | 185 | 256 | 23 | 13 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 355 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 200 | 262 | 349 | 612 | 149 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +16 | +7 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 359 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 184 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | +8 | +7 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 98 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 214 | 275 | 489 | 121 | 172 | 24 | 7 | 222 | 36 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 257 | 230 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 74 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 273 | 357 | 630 | 165 | 241 | 29 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 2 | — | 139 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 275 | 296 | 571 | 96 | 274 | 29 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians 2 | — | 139 | 117 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 274 | 384 | 402 | 786 | 128 | 341 | 20 | 15 | 354 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 413 | 82 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 139 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 199 | 253 | 346 | 599 | 148 | 268 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 399 | 97 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 104 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 243 | 318 | 421 | 739 | 178 | 296 | 23 | 9 | 321 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 356 | 324 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 148 | 220 | 265 | 486 | 117 | 222 | 39 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 356 | 313 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 188 | 280 | 332 | 612 | 144 | 255 | 31 | 10 | 278 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 435 | 100 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 145 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 230 | 338 | 411 | 749 | 182 | 302 | 28 | 12 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 510 | 415 | 109 | 26 | 4 | 21 | 82 | 121 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 263 | 395 | 496 | 892 | 234 | 318 | 24 | 16 | 392 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 431 | 98 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 63 | 115 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 330 | 432 | 762 | 204 | 258 | 23 | 13 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 500 | 415 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 24 | 79 | 105 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 246 | 370 | 484 | 855 | 239 | 270 | 21 | 16 | 376 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 355 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 200 | 262 | 349 | 612 | 149 | 261 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +16 | +7 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 354 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 265 | 350 | 615 | 150 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +16 | +7 | +8 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 359 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 184 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | +8 | +7 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 359 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 184 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | +8 | +7 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 321 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 98 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 181 | 257 | 333 | 590 | 153 | 221 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 355 | 311 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 86 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 215 | 311 | 412 | 722 | 196 | 250 | 24 | 12 | 322 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 2 | — | 139 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 275 | 296 | 571 | 96 | 275 | 29 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 420 | 82 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 139 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 195 | 253 | 340 | 593 | 145 | 258 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 356 | 323 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 149 | 220 | 266 | 487 | 118 | 219 | 39 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 434 | 100 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 145 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 230 | 338 | 412 | 750 | 182 | 296 | 28 | 12 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 430 | 98 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 63 | 115 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 330 | 433 | 763 | 205 | 261 | 23 | 13 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 356 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 262 | 348 | 611 | 149 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 365 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 192 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 181 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 319 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 98 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 257 | 335 | 592 | 154 | 222 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 389 | 356 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 262 | 348 | 611 | 149 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 414 | 365 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 192 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 181 | 222 | 24 | 11 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 319 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 98 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 257 | 335 | 592 | 154 | 222 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 45% | 403 | 361 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 104 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 282 | 370 | 652 | 167 | 243 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 83 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +9 | 0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 45% | 102 | 92 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 280 | 371 | 651 | 169 | 239 | 25 | 9 | 290 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 56% | 306 | 274 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 80 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 280 | 366 | 645 | 164 | 242 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 59% | 298 | 268 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 277 | 359 | 636 | 160 | 241 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 61% | 294 | 264 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 273 | 351 | 624 | 155 | 238 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 56% | 171 | 152 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 278 | 366 | 644 | 166 | 237 | 26 | 9 | 287 | 81 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 59% | 177 | 158 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 275 | 360 | 635 | 162 | 236 | 26 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 61% | 181 | 161 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 271 | 351 | 623 | 157 | 234 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1660 | 1473 | 297 | 68 | 6 | 59 | 160 | 436 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 202 | 283 | 376 | 659 | 174 | 240 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 78 | -35 | +1 | +28 | +39 | +36 | 7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 116 | 27 | 2 | 23 | 63 | 171 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 201 | 283 | 374 | 658 | 173 | 240 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 78 | -14 | +0 | +11 | +15 | +14 | 2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4240 | 3771 | 752 | 164 | 26 | 130 | 402 | 1192 | 24 | 65 | 20 | 199 | 281 | 360 | 641 | 161 | 251 | 28 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -49 | +0 | +27 | +50 | +49 | 7.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 115 | 25 | 4 | 20 | 62 | 183 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 199 | 281 | 360 | 641 | 161 | 250 | 28 | 10 | 284 | 78 | -14 | +0 | +8 | +14 | +14 | 2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANashville Sounds · 257 PAwOBA .352 → .274 (−78)K% 24.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .352 → .274; ISO .227 → .169; BABIP .284 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 270 PAwOBA .383 → .323 (−60)K% 19.3% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.26% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.41% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 12.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.58% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.88% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .383 → .323; ISO .244 → .192; BABIP .273 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 290 PAwOBA .377 → .321 (−56)K% 25.9% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.76% | ÷0.930 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.82% | ÷0.941 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 19.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .377 → .321; ISO .257 → .199; BABIP .306 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 220 PAwOBA .395 → .335 (−61)K% 20.9% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.91% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.45% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 14.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷1.052 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.926 | ×0.860 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 8.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.980 | ×0.950 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 110, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .395 → .335; ISO .200 → .176; BABIP .333 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 356 PAwOBA .270 → .215 (−55)K% 31.5% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.46% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.11% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.41% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 15.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.129 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 4.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.116 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.893 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 4.56% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 123, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .215; ISO .144 → .116; BABIP .255 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALake County Captains · 453 PAwOBA .317 → .257 (−60)K% 23.0% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.96% | ÷1.016 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.27% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.66% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.046 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 3.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.15% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .257; ISO .178 → .150; BABIP .296 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Indians 2 · 139 PAwOBA .348 → .253 (−95)K% 20.1% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 22.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 2.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .348 → .253; ISO .128 → .093; BABIP .341 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).