Andy Yerzy
C Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAMIL | 75 | .194/.270/.299 | 2 | 1 | 23 | — | .159/.216/.217 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAASTL | 204 | .203/.289/.330 | 6 | 1 | 33 | — | .160/.225/.245 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAASTL | 134 | .144/.241/.220 | 2 | 0 | -1 | — | .114/.180/.154 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBSTL | 10 | .171/.238/.261 | 0 | 0 | 42 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBSTL | 41 | .172/.239/.260 | 1 | 0 | 42 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 172 | 162 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 216 | 244 | 265 | 509 | 49 | 270 | 22 | 2 | 227 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 225 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 365 | 524 | 890 | 227 | 323 | 18 | 10 | 390 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 136 | 125 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 176 | 144 | 320 | 40 | 151 | 29 | 7 | 157 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 86 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 326 | 417 | 742 | 222 | 243 | 35 | 15 | 334 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 246 | 205 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 68 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 229 | 352 | 478 | 831 | 249 | 264 | 28 | 13 | 366 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 55 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 418 | 439 | 857 | 220 | 241 | 18 | 16 | 393 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 346 | 291 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 50 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 340 | 402 | 742 | 182 | 265 | 25 | 14 | 334 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 388 | 436 | 824 | 205 | 241 | 16 | 18 | 373 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 270 | 299 | 569 | 104 | 216 | 20 | 9 | 258 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 182 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 289 | 330 | 619 | 126 | 284 | 33 | 10 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 118 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 241 | 220 | 461 | 76 | 192 | 29 | 11 | 219 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 172 | 163 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 190 | 202 | 393 | 37 | 229 | 32 | 2 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 235 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 265 | 374 | 640 | 153 | 268 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 136 | 128 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 132 | 109 | 242 | 31 | 130 | 40 | 4 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 86 | 76 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 244 | 276 | 521 | 132 | 216 | 45 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 246 | 214 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 95 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 164 | 266 | 341 | 608 | 178 | 209 | 39 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 55 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 327 | 356 | 683 | 178 | 203 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 346 | 309 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 265 | 317 | 582 | 136 | 234 | 30 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 327 | 405 | 731 | 190 | 220 | 20 | 12 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 216 | 217 | 434 | 58 | 193 | 24 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 188 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 225 | 245 | 470 | 85 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 123 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 180 | 154 | 335 | 41 | 170 | 35 | 7 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 172 | 163 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 190 | 202 | 393 | 37 | 236 | 32 | 2 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 172 | 162 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 216 | 244 | 265 | 509 | 49 | 270 | 22 | 2 | 227 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 235 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 265 | 374 | 640 | 153 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 225 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 365 | 524 | 890 | 227 | 323 | 18 | 10 | 390 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 136 | 128 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 132 | 109 | 242 | 31 | 135 | 40 | 4 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 136 | 125 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 176 | 144 | 320 | 40 | 151 | 29 | 7 | 157 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 335 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 147 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 155 | 265 | 313 | 578 | 158 | 211 | 38 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 387 | 318 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 21 | 53 | 108 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 220 | 356 | 459 | 815 | 239 | 257 | 28 | 14 | 362 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 346 | 309 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 265 | 317 | 582 | 136 | 236 | 30 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 346 | 291 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 50 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 340 | 402 | 742 | 182 | 265 | 25 | 14 | 334 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 327 | 405 | 731 | 190 | 233 | 20 | 12 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 388 | 436 | 824 | 205 | 241 | 16 | 18 | 373 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 216 | 217 | 434 | 58 | 196 | 24 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 270 | 299 | 569 | 104 | 216 | 20 | 9 | 258 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 188 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 225 | 245 | 470 | 85 | 260 | 41 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 182 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 289 | 330 | 619 | 126 | 284 | 33 | 10 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 123 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 180 | 154 | 335 | 41 | 171 | 35 | 7 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 118 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 241 | 220 | 461 | 76 | 192 | 29 | 11 | 219 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 172 | 165 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 164 | 190 | 200 | 390 | 36 | 229 | 32 | 2 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 233 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 265 | 378 | 643 | 155 | 268 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 136 | 127 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 132 | 110 | 243 | 31 | 130 | 40 | 4 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 334 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 147 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 156 | 265 | 314 | 579 | 159 | 210 | 38 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 346 | 308 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 318 | 583 | 136 | 234 | 30 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 327 | 405 | 731 | 190 | 220 | 20 | 12 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 157 | 216 | 214 | 431 | 57 | 193 | 24 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 186 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 161 | 225 | 247 | 473 | 86 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 123 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 180 | 154 | 335 | 41 | 170 | 35 | 7 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 75 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 157 | 216 | 214 | 431 | 57 | 193 | 24 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 204 | 186 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 161 | 225 | 247 | 473 | 86 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 134 | 123 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 180 | 154 | 335 | 41 | 170 | 35 | 7 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 10% | 200 | 182 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 238 | 263 | 501 | 92 | 236 | 32 | 8 | 230 | 42 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 238 | 261 | 499 | 90 | 238 | 30 | 10 | 229 | 42 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 27% | 151 | 138 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 238 | 263 | 501 | 91 | 237 | 31 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 27% | 41 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 239 | 260 | 499 | 89 | 239 | 32 | 7 | 229 | 42 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 220 | 263 | 483 | 105 | 208 | 32 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 95 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 220 | 264 | 484 | 106 | 208 | 32 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -45 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -2.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2008 | 1825 | 300 | 53 | 1 | 47 | 145 | 663 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 164 | 236 | 272 | 508 | 107 | 225 | 33 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -18 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 96 | 17 | 0 | 15 | 47 | 215 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 162 | 234 | 267 | 501 | 105 | 222 | 33 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -45 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 134 PAwOBA .215 → .166 (−49)K% 29.1% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 13.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .215 → .166; ISO .076 → .055; BABIP .192 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 204 PAwOBA .276 → .217 (−60)K% 32.8% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.84% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 21.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .276 → .217; ISO .126 → .092; BABIP .284 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 75 PAwOBA .255 → .202 (−53)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 1.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.198 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .255 → .202; ISO .104 → .072; BABIP .216 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 49 PAwOBA .364 → .295 (−69)K% 16.3% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.37% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 11.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 15.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.06% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .295; ISO .205 → .174; BABIP .241 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 346 PAwOBA .325 → .260 (−65)K% 24.6% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.87% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.48% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 15.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.31% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .325 → .260; ISO .182 → .144; BABIP .265 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 246 PAwOBA .359 → .263 (−96)K% 27.6% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.64% | ÷0.970 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.60% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.52% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×0.998 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷1.304 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×0.998 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.22% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 8.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 107, 2B 161, 3B 122, K 94, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .359 → .263; ISO .249 → .182; BABIP .264 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 86 PAwOBA .326 → .226 (−100)K% 34.9% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.88% | ÷0.946 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.12% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 10.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.025 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 17.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.90% | ÷1.271 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.50% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .226; ISO .222 → .127; BABIP .243 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 55 PAwOBA .372 → .304 (−68)K% 18.2% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 7.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 11.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.923 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 5.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 111, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .304; ISO .220 → .192; BABIP .241 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).