Jordan Procyshen
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | AATEX | 161 | .197/.329/.341 | 5 | 1 | 46 | — | .171/.266/.286 |
| 2022 | 29 | AATEX | 129 | .222/.339/.380 | 4 | 3 | 54 | — | .177/.268/.292 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAATEX | 90 | .247/.375/.356 | 1 | 0 | 61 | — | .208/.307/.299 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 33 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 433 | 797 | 133 | 381 | 24 | 9 | 357 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 151 | 129 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 209 | 311 | 248 | 559 | 39 | 250 | 15 | 12 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 204 | 179 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 285 | 358 | 363 | 721 | 78 | 333 | 16 | 8 | 325 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 244 | 221 | 55 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 305 | 376 | 681 | 127 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 300 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 248 | 215 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 200 | 295 | 298 | 593 | 98 | 271 | 27 | 11 | 272 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 133 | 115 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 226 | 321 | 278 | 599 | 52 | 292 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 85 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 224 | 266 | 489 | 101 | 177 | 18 | 7 | 224 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 65 | 61 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 286 | 672 | 958 | 410 | 208 | 14 | 3 | 393 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 161 | 132 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 329 | 341 | 670 | 144 | 241 | 26 | 12 | 306 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 129 | 108 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 222 | 339 | 380 | 718 | 157 | 286 | 27 | 12 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 90 | 73 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 375 | 356 | 731 | 110 | 327 | 24 | 14 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 33 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 303 | 387 | 690 | 129 | 346 | 33 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 151 | 136 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 184 | 250 | 213 | 463 | 29 | 238 | 21 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 204 | 185 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 259 | 318 | 324 | 643 | 65 | 313 | 21 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 244 | 227 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 243 | 308 | 551 | 106 | 286 | 34 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 248 | 224 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 174 | 242 | 246 | 487 | 71 | 253 | 34 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 133 | 120 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 237 | 208 | 445 | 42 | 232 | 31 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 85 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 176 | 222 | 399 | 86 | 149 | 22 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 65 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 222 | 548 | 771 | 339 | 172 | 18 | 2 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 161 | 140 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 266 | 286 | 552 | 114 | 208 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 129 | 113 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 177 | 268 | 292 | 560 | 115 | 231 | 33 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 90 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 307 | 299 | 606 | 91 | 270 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 33 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 303 | 387 | 690 | 129 | 368 | 33 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 33 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 433 | 797 | 133 | 381 | 24 | 9 | 357 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 321 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 231 | 292 | 283 | 576 | 53 | 290 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 355 | 308 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 54 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 253 | 338 | 315 | 653 | 62 | 298 | 15 | 10 | 299 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 244 | 227 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 243 | 308 | 551 | 106 | 296 | 34 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 244 | 221 | 55 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 305 | 376 | 681 | 127 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 300 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 248 | 224 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 174 | 242 | 246 | 487 | 71 | 263 | 34 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 248 | 215 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 200 | 295 | 298 | 593 | 98 | 271 | 27 | 11 | 272 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 133 | 120 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 237 | 208 | 445 | 42 | 247 | 31 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 133 | 115 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 226 | 321 | 278 | 599 | 52 | 292 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 143 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 203 | 378 | 580 | 203 | 168 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 150 | 140 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 250 | 443 | 693 | 236 | 191 | 16 | 5 | 297 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 161 | 140 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 266 | 286 | 552 | 114 | 225 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 161 | 132 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 329 | 341 | 670 | 144 | 241 | 26 | 12 | 306 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 129 | 113 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 177 | 268 | 292 | 560 | 115 | 246 | 33 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 129 | 108 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 222 | 339 | 380 | 718 | 157 | 286 | 27 | 12 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 90 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 307 | 299 | 606 | 91 | 294 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 90 | 73 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 375 | 356 | 731 | 110 | 327 | 24 | 14 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 33 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 303 | 387 | 690 | 129 | 346 | 33 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 324 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 228 | 292 | 281 | 573 | 52 | 281 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 244 | 230 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 243 | 304 | 547 | 104 | 286 | 34 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 248 | 226 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 173 | 242 | 243 | 485 | 71 | 253 | 34 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 133 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 165 | 237 | 207 | 443 | 41 | 232 | 31 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 144 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 203 | 375 | 578 | 201 | 159 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 161 | 142 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 113 | 208 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 129 | 114 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 175 | 268 | 289 | 557 | 114 | 231 | 33 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 90 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 307 | 291 | 598 | 89 | 270 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1543 | 1396 | 272 | 52 | 2 | 25 | 96 | 443 | 25 | 11 | 11 | 195 | 259 | 289 | 548 | 94 | 262 | 29 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -97 | -2 | +0 | +28 | +33 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 115 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 187 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 196 | 260 | 293 | 552 | 97 | 263 | 29 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -41 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 90 PAwOBA .332 → .259 (−73)K% 24.4% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.44% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×0.972 | 20.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.80% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.972 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .332 → .259; ISO .110 → .079; BABIP .327 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 129 PAwOBA .318 → .248 (−70)K% 27.1% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.13% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.40% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.55% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×0.958 | 17.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.954 | ×0.958 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.954 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 4.59% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .318 → .248; ISO .157 → .129; BABIP .286 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 161 PAwOBA .302 → .236 (−67)K% 26.1% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 7.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.73% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 3.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.89% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×0.972 | ×0.968 | 16.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.957 | ×0.870 | ×0.972 | ×0.968 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.114 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.77% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .302 → .236; ISO .144 → .108; BABIP .241 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 85 PAwOBA .218 → .171 (−48)K% 17.6% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.06% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 12.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .218 → .171; ISO .101 → .082; BABIP .177 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 65 PAwOBA .392 → .336 (−56)K% 13.8% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.85% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.08% | ÷0.948 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 6.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷0.935 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.968 | 8.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.049 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.968 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.54% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 10.60% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .392 → .336; ISO .410 → .359; BABIP .208 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 133 PAwOBA .276 → .198 (−78)K% 21.1% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.939 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.60% | ÷1.102 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .198; ISO .052 → .034; BABIP .292 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 248 PAwOBA .265 → .217 (−48)K% 27.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.02% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.27% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .265 → .217; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .271 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Salem Red Sox · 244 PAwOBA .294 → .241 (−53)K% 23.0% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.95% | ÷0.951 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.70% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 7.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.787 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 100, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .294 → .241; ISO .127 → .110; BABIP .311 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).