Tyler Payne
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29 | AAACHC | 163 | .298/.338/.397 | 1 | 0 | 75 | — | .273/.300/.364 |
| 2023 | 30 | AALAA | 157 | .312/.369/.472 | 4 | 0 | 84 | — | .257/.299/.385 |
| 2024 | 31 | AALAA | 290 | .233/.281/.319 | 4 | 3 | 33 | — | .196/.233/.262 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 63 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 333 | 212 | 545 | 19 | 227 | 13 | 17 | 271 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 206 | 184 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 315 | 380 | 696 | 136 | 277 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 53 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 321 | 360 | 681 | 80 | 350 | 19 | 6 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 80 | 73 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 295 | 356 | 651 | 110 | 283 | 18 | 6 | 286 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 276 | 254 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 310 | 417 | 728 | 161 | 285 | 17 | 5 | 322 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 234 | 212 | 49 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 294 | 363 | 658 | 132 | 310 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 163 | 151 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 338 | 397 | 735 | 99 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 323 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 157 | 144 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 369 | 472 | 842 | 160 | 380 | 20 | 7 | 374 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 270 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 319 | 600 | 85 | 276 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 63 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 254 | 179 | 433 | 18 | 185 | 19 | 11 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 206 | 190 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 246 | 300 | 546 | 105 | 237 | 25 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 53 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 245 | 275 | 520 | 59 | 306 | 26 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 80 | 75 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 244 | 320 | 564 | 107 | 246 | 22 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 276 | 260 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 245 | 335 | 579 | 131 | 243 | 25 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 234 | 218 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 234 | 289 | 523 | 101 | 271 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 163 | 154 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 300 | 364 | 664 | 91 | 359 | 27 | 3 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 157 | 148 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 299 | 385 | 684 | 128 | 321 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 275 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 233 | 262 | 494 | 65 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 63 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 254 | 179 | 433 | 18 | 205 | 19 | 11 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 63 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 333 | 212 | 545 | 19 | 227 | 13 | 17 | 271 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 206 | 190 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 246 | 300 | 546 | 105 | 237 | 25 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 206 | 184 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 315 | 380 | 696 | 136 | 277 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 53 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 245 | 275 | 520 | 59 | 297 | 26 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 53 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 321 | 360 | 681 | 80 | 350 | 19 | 6 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 335 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 247 | 334 | 581 | 125 | 252 | 24 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 356 | 327 | 83 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 307 | 404 | 710 | 150 | 285 | 17 | 6 | 314 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 234 | 218 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 234 | 289 | 523 | 101 | 277 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 234 | 212 | 49 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 294 | 363 | 658 | 132 | 310 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 163 | 154 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 300 | 364 | 664 | 91 | 373 | 27 | 3 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 163 | 151 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 338 | 397 | 735 | 99 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 323 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 157 | 148 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 299 | 385 | 684 | 128 | 327 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 157 | 144 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 369 | 472 | 842 | 160 | 380 | 20 | 7 | 374 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 275 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 233 | 262 | 494 | 65 | 246 | 23 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 270 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 319 | 600 | 85 | 276 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 63 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 254 | 179 | 433 | 18 | 185 | 19 | 11 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 206 | 191 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 246 | 298 | 545 | 105 | 237 | 25 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 53 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 245 | 275 | 520 | 59 | 306 | 26 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 336 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 247 | 333 | 580 | 125 | 244 | 24 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 234 | 219 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 234 | 288 | 521 | 100 | 271 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 163 | 156 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 300 | 359 | 659 | 90 | 359 | 27 | 3 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 157 | 147 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 299 | 388 | 687 | 129 | 321 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 275 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 233 | 262 | 494 | 65 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 31 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 290 | 275 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 233 | 262 | 494 | 65 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1522 | 1427 | 302 | 62 | 4 | 23 | 65 | 392 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 253 | 309 | 563 | 97 | 273 | 26 | 4 | 243 | 50 | -90 | +0 | +0 | +27 | +33 | -3.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 167 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 253 | 310 | 564 | 99 | 272 | 26 | 4 | 243 | 50 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 290 PAwOBA .265 → .217 (−48)K% 18.3% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.28% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.83% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.940 | 3.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.940 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.072 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 1.42% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .265 → .217; ISO .085 → .067; BABIP .276 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 157 PAwOBA .364 → .293 (−71)K% 20.4% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.940 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.940 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.79% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.940 | 22.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.82% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×0.940 | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.953 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .364 → .293; ISO .160 → .131; BABIP .380 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 163 PAwOBA .317 → .279 (−38)K% 22.1% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.91% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 3.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.70% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 27.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 7.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .317 → .279; ISO .099 → .082; BABIP .383 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 234 PAwOBA .288 → .225 (−63)K% 28.2% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.26% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.958 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.55% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.015 | ×0.870 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .288 → .225; ISO .132 → .097; BABIP .310 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 276 PAwOBA .315 → .248 (−67)K% 17.4% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷1.041 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 3.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.90% | ÷0.967 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 17.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.964 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 93, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .248; ISO .161 → .130; BABIP .285 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATennessee Smokies · 80 PAwOBA .285 → .235 (−50)K% 17.5% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.047 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 3.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 17.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.142 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .285 → .235; ISO .110 → .091; BABIP .283 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 53 PAwOBA .298 → .237 (−62)K% 18.9% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷1.005 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.66% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 24.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .298 → .237; ISO .080 → .060; BABIP .350 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ASouth Bend Cubs · 206 PAwOBA .304 → .245 (−59)K% 18.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.93% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.970 | 19.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.970 | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.869 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 3.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .304 → .245; ISO .136 → .115; BABIP .277 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).