Matt Whatley
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAA/AATEX | 215 | .228/.291/.328 | 4 | 2 | 42 | — | .208/.254/.301 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAATEX | 268 | .203/.291/.322 | 6 | 5 | 30 | — | .161/.234/.240 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAATEX | 164 | .199/.298/.319 | 5 | 4 | 38 | — | .176/.242/.270 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 19 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 353 | 421 | 471 | 892 | 118 | 429 | 16 | 11 | 397 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 162 | 143 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 258 | 280 | 538 | 105 | 242 | 30 | 7 | 244 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 368 | 654 | 158 | 273 | 33 | 10 | 295 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 465 | 380 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 62 | 84 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 234 | 353 | 321 | 674 | 87 | 285 | 18 | 13 | 306 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 39 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 395 | 375 | 770 | 94 | 409 | 28 | 13 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 268 | 227 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 203 | 317 | 282 | 599 | 79 | 292 | 30 | 13 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 92 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 321 | 338 | 659 | 108 | 288 | 24 | 11 | 277 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 123 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 270 | 322 | 592 | 96 | 270 | 20 | 5 | 266 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 268 | 236 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 70 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 203 | 291 | 322 | 613 | 119 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 141 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 298 | 319 | 617 | 121 | 230 | 23 | 12 | 280 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 316 | 389 | 705 | 111 | 339 | 21 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 162 | 148 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 128 | 189 | 189 | 378 | 61 | 213 | 43 | 4 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 246 | 48 | 5 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 465 | 400 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 113 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 185 | 276 | 247 | 523 | 62 | 231 | 24 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 268 | 241 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 94 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 178 | 253 | 241 | 493 | 62 | 267 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 92 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 298 | 338 | 635 | 104 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 123 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 221 | 274 | 495 | 85 | 233 | 24 | 3 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 268 | 242 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 87 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 161 | 234 | 240 | 474 | 79 | 224 | 32 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 148 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 242 | 270 | 513 | 95 | 200 | 26 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 316 | 389 | 705 | 111 | 357 | 21 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 19 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 353 | 421 | 471 | 892 | 118 | 429 | 16 | 11 | 397 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 167 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 132 | 194 | 204 | 398 | 72 | 227 | 43 | 5 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 183 | 162 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 261 | 290 | 551 | 111 | 245 | 30 | 8 | 250 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 504 | 434 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 122 | 9 | 30 | 7 | 184 | 275 | 244 | 519 | 60 | 244 | 24 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 504 | 412 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 67 | 95 | 9 | 30 | 7 | 238 | 357 | 325 | 682 | 87 | 294 | 19 | 13 | 309 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 268 | 241 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 94 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 178 | 253 | 241 | 493 | 62 | 276 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 268 | 227 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 203 | 317 | 282 | 599 | 79 | 292 | 30 | 13 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 194 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 248 | 278 | 526 | 77 | 261 | 26 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 215 | 189 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 291 | 328 | 619 | 101 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 271 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 268 | 242 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 87 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 161 | 234 | 240 | 474 | 79 | 230 | 32 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 268 | 236 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 70 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 203 | 291 | 322 | 613 | 119 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 148 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 242 | 270 | 513 | 95 | 214 | 26 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 141 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 298 | 319 | 617 | 121 | 230 | 23 | 12 | 280 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 316 | 389 | 705 | 111 | 339 | 21 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 168 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 131 | 194 | 202 | 397 | 71 | 217 | 43 | 5 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 504 | 445 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 122 | 9 | 30 | 7 | 180 | 275 | 238 | 513 | 58 | 231 | 24 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 268 | 242 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 94 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 178 | 253 | 240 | 492 | 62 | 267 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 201 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 248 | 269 | 516 | 75 | 246 | 26 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 268 | 243 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 87 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 160 | 234 | 239 | 473 | 78 | 224 | 32 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 150 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 93 | 200 | 26 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 164 | 150 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 93 | 200 | 26 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1621 | 1444 | 254 | 38 | 4 | 19 | 115 | 485 | 25 | 49 | 23 | 176 | 249 | 247 | 496 | 71 | 246 | 30 | 7 | 221 | 36 | -124 | +1 | +0 | +29 | +35 | -6.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 102 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 176 | 248 | 250 | 499 | 74 | 245 | 30 | 7 | 221 | 36 | -50 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 164 PAwOBA .276 → .224 (−53)K% 23.2% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.17% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 18.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.94% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 1.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.85% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .224; ISO .121 → .095; BABIP .230 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 268 PAwOBA .273 → .213 (−60)K% 26.1% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.12% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.28% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.003 | 17.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.003 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .273 → .213; ISO .119 → .081; BABIP .261 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 123 PAwOBA .261 → .214 (−47)K% 20.3% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.33% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .261 → .214; ISO .096 → .077; BABIP .270 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARound Rock Express · 92 PAwOBA .276 → .252 (−24)K% 23.9% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.91% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 23.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .276 → .252; ISO .108 → .095; BABIP .288 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 268 PAwOBA .274 → .223 (−51)K% 29.9% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.85% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.69% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 22.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.957 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.114 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .274 → .223; ISO .079 → .062; BABIP .292 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AHickory Crawdads · 465 PAwOBA .302 → .234 (−68)K% 18.1% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.06% | ÷0.997 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.12% | ÷0.955 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.106 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.907 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.183 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 107, 2B 121, 3B 81, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .234; ISO .087 → .065; BABIP .285 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 162 PAwOBA .241 → .173 (−68)K% 29.6% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷0.991 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.042 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.84% | ÷0.991 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.905 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.393 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 81, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .241 → .173; ISO .105 → .069; BABIP .242 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AHickory Crawdads · 21 PAwOBA .287 → .192 (−95)K% 33.3% → 46.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.952 | ×1.340 | — | — | 46.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | — | — | 23.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.204 | ×0.820 | — | — | 5.67% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 98, 2B 76, 3B 80, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .287 → .192; ISO .158 → .088; BABIP .273 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .