Jake Lowery
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AA/A+2 orgs | 135 | .183/.293/.296 | 2 | 0 | 10 | — | .124/.202/.182 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 93 | .244/.359/.397 | 3 | 0 | 72 | — | .206/.293/.315 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAWSH | 33 | .222/.364/.333 | 0 | 0 | 55 | — | .200/.273/.300 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 233 | 203 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 316 | 320 | 636 | 99 | 328 | 30 | 12 | 291 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 165 | 137 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 360 | 504 | 864 | 255 | 293 | 24 | 15 | 369 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Akron Aeros | — | 270 | 236 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 364 | 449 | 813 | 174 | 358 | 24 | 12 | 361 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 50 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 340 | 366 | 706 | 171 | 250 | 24 | 18 | 323 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 29 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 321 | 320 | 641 | 80 | 273 | 14 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 258 | 219 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 311 | 329 | 640 | 128 | 265 | 28 | 13 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 199 | 177 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 164 | 245 | 277 | 522 | 113 | 206 | 25 | 10 | 237 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 65 | 52 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 359 | 346 | 706 | 135 | 263 | 22 | 17 | 324 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 66 | 56 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 333 | 286 | 619 | 71 | 300 | 24 | 15 | 293 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 69 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 254 | 305 | 559 | 153 | 250 | 45 | 12 | 249 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 45 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 295 | 216 | 512 | 54 | 250 | 29 | 16 | 246 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 48 | 41 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 317 | 417 | 561 | 978 | 244 | 345 | 19 | 15 | 428 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 33 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 111 | 353 | 30 | 18 | 326 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 233 | 215 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 221 | 237 | 458 | 74 | 288 | 45 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 165 | 145 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 273 | 379 | 653 | 186 | 250 | 32 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 270 | 246 | 58 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 301 | 378 | 679 | 142 | 327 | 30 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 50 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 341 | 621 | 159 | 223 | 34 | 12 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 258 | 229 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 252 | 275 | 527 | 105 | 246 | 35 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 199 | 182 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 204 | 242 | 446 | 99 | 181 | 30 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 65 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 266 | 281 | 546 | 105 | 231 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 66 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 258 | 220 | 478 | 51 | 271 | 29 | 11 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 69 | 62 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 149 | 145 | 294 | 65 | 193 | 67 | 7 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 45 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 250 | 205 | 455 | 51 | 221 | 33 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 48 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 333 | 419 | 752 | 163 | 309 | 23 | 10 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 300 | 573 | 100 | 313 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 360 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 172 | 240 | 283 | 523 | 111 | 281 | 39 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 398 | 340 | 79 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 52 | 110 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 334 | 394 | 728 | 162 | 314 | 28 | 13 | 324 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 349 | 316 | 71 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 294 | 370 | 664 | 146 | 315 | 31 | 9 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 349 | 302 | 79 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 357 | 427 | 785 | 166 | 335 | 23 | 13 | 349 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 258 | 229 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 252 | 275 | 527 | 105 | 252 | 35 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 258 | 219 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 311 | 329 | 640 | 128 | 265 | 28 | 13 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 199 | 182 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 204 | 242 | 446 | 99 | 190 | 30 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 199 | 177 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 164 | 245 | 277 | 522 | 113 | 206 | 25 | 10 | 237 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 65 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 266 | 281 | 546 | 105 | 243 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 65 | 52 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 359 | 346 | 706 | 135 | 263 | 22 | 17 | 324 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 135 | 121 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 203 | 182 | 385 | 58 | 246 | 48 | 9 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 135 | 115 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 293 | 296 | 589 | 113 | 279 | 35 | 13 | 271 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 293 | 317 | 611 | 110 | 278 | 28 | 11 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 93 | 78 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 359 | 397 | 756 | 154 | 302 | 24 | 15 | 340 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 300 | 573 | 100 | 333 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 33 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 111 | 353 | 30 | 18 | 326 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 363 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 240 | 281 | 521 | 110 | 272 | 39 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 349 | 315 | 71 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 294 | 371 | 665 | 146 | 311 | 31 | 9 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 258 | 231 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 252 | 273 | 525 | 104 | 246 | 35 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 199 | 183 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 142 | 204 | 240 | 445 | 98 | 181 | 30 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 65 | 58 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 266 | 276 | 541 | 103 | 231 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 135 | 122 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 203 | 180 | 383 | 57 | 231 | 48 | 9 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 83 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 293 | 313 | 607 | 108 | 266 | 28 | 11 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 300 | 573 | 100 | 313 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1530 | 1377 | 246 | 65 | 8 | 24 | 131 | 538 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 179 | 251 | 290 | 541 | 111 | 268 | 35 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -93 | -0 | +0 | +27 | +33 | -3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 104 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 56 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 251 | 287 | 538 | 109 | 267 | 35 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -40 | -0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 33 PAwOBA .307 → .249 (−58)K% 30.3% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.15% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 16.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 14.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .307 → .249; ISO .111 → .096; BABIP .353 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 48 PAwOBA .417 → .344 (−73)K% 18.8% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.58% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 7.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .417 → .344; ISO .244 → .201; BABIP .345 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 45 PAwOBA .241 → .200 (−41)K% 28.9% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.89% | ÷1.044 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 11.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 14.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.205 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .200; ISO .054 → .050; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 69 PAwOBA .250 → .132 (−118)K% 44.9% → 66.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.93% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 66.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.59% | ÷0.982 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.050 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 15.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.368 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 4.50% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .250 → .132; ISO .153 → .066; BABIP .250 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 66 PAwOBA .287 → .236 (−51)K% 24.2% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.15% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 8.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .287 → .236; ISO .071 → .060; BABIP .300 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Potomac Nationals · 65 PAwOBA .322 → .241 (−80)K% 21.5% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.54% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.061 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 14.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 8.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .241; ISO .135 → .109; BABIP .263 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAkron RubberDucks · 199 PAwOBA .233 → .194 (−40)K% 25.1% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷0.934 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.60% | ÷0.971 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.053 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷0.842 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 104, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .233 → .194; ISO .113 → .094; BABIP .206 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAkron RubberDucks · 258 PAwOBA .288 → .241 (−47)K% 27.5% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.52% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.79% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷1.064 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 18.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.38% | ÷0.881 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.03% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .288 → .241; ISO .128 → .115; BABIP .265 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).