Caleb Hamilton
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27 | AAAMIN | 251 | .233/.368/.442 | 11 | 1 | 76 | — | .191/.288/.350 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBMIN | 23 | .056/.227/.222 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 0.3 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AAABOS | 159 | .167/.272/.304 | 4 | 0 | 12 | — | .118/.196/.208 | |
| 2024 | 29 | AALAA | 134 | .124/.250/.230 | 4 | 3 | -2 | — | .093/.189/.169 | |
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 172 | 140 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 351 | 329 | 679 | 121 | 287 | 26 | 16 | 316 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 367 | 307 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 97 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 221 | 343 | 394 | 738 | 173 | 291 | 26 | 15 | 332 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 340 | 297 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 72 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 205 | 293 | 323 | 617 | 118 | 251 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 39 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 205 | 333 | 538 | 128 | 304 | 38 | 0 | 235 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 341 | 296 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 82 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 226 | 324 | 351 | 676 | 125 | 290 | 24 | 12 | 308 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 31 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 207 | 368 | 103 | 118 | 35 | 6 | 171 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 248 | 203 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 79 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 192 | 331 | 360 | 690 | 167 | 261 | 32 | 17 | 314 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 23 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 222 | 449 | 167 | 61 | 17 | 212 | 29 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +0 | 0.3 | |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 251 | 206 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 368 | 442 | 810 | 209 | 287 | 27 | 17 | 362 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 159 | 138 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 272 | 304 | 576 | 138 | 237 | 35 | 12 | 265 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 113 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 124 | 250 | 230 | 480 | 106 | 159 | 35 | 13 | 229 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 23 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 222 | 449 | 167 | 61 | 17 | 212 | 30 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +0 | 0.3 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 172 | 150 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 240 | 200 | 440 | 67 | 216 | 36 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 367 | 321 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 159 | 258 | 280 | 539 | 121 | 236 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 340 | 307 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 166 | 234 | 261 | 494 | 94 | 220 | 30 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 39 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 154 | 256 | 410 | 103 | 286 | 46 | 0 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 341 | 310 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 98 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 187 | 257 | 284 | 541 | 97 | 253 | 29 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 31 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 129 | 200 | 329 | 100 | 105 | 42 | 3 | 114 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 248 | 214 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 97 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 253 | 252 | 505 | 107 | 224 | 39 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 23 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 222 | 449 | 167 | 61 | 17 | 211 | 29 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +0 | 0.3 | |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 251 | 220 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 288 | 350 | 638 | 159 | 249 | 33 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 159 | 144 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 196 | 208 | 405 | 90 | 185 | 41 | 8 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 118 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 93 | 189 | 169 | 359 | 76 | 133 | 44 | 9 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 172 | 150 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 240 | 200 | 440 | 67 | 218 | 36 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Elizabethton Twins | — | 172 | 140 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 351 | 329 | 679 | 121 | 287 | 26 | 16 | 316 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 367 | 321 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 159 | 258 | 280 | 539 | 121 | 243 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 367 | 307 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 97 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 221 | 343 | 394 | 738 | 173 | 291 | 26 | 15 | 332 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 340 | 307 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 166 | 234 | 261 | 494 | 94 | 230 | 30 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 340 | 297 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 72 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 205 | 293 | 323 | 617 | 118 | 251 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 349 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 116 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 189 | 251 | 289 | 541 | 100 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 335 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 97 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 224 | 312 | 349 | 661 | 125 | 292 | 26 | 11 | 300 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 244 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 110 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 239 | 246 | 485 | 107 | 214 | 39 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 279 | 232 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 181 | 312 | 341 | 652 | 159 | 243 | 32 | 15 | 298 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 274 | 238 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 96 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 283 | 340 | 623 | 160 | 248 | 35 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 274 | 224 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 81 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 357 | 424 | 781 | 205 | 280 | 30 | 17 | 350 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 159 | 144 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 196 | 208 | 405 | 90 | 182 | 41 | 8 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 159 | 138 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 272 | 304 | 576 | 138 | 237 | 35 | 12 | 265 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 118 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 93 | 189 | 169 | 359 | 76 | 140 | 44 | 9 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 113 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 124 | 250 | 230 | 480 | 106 | 159 | 35 | 13 | 229 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 172 | 149 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 134 | 240 | 201 | 441 | 67 | 216 | 36 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 367 | 321 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 159 | 258 | 280 | 539 | 121 | 236 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 340 | 310 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 165 | 234 | 258 | 492 | 94 | 220 | 30 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 348 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 116 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 190 | 251 | 290 | 542 | 101 | 256 | 31 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 245 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 110 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 239 | 245 | 484 | 106 | 211 | 39 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 274 | 238 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 96 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 283 | 340 | 623 | 160 | 228 | 35 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 159 | 144 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 196 | 208 | 405 | 90 | 185 | 41 | 8 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 119 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 92 | 189 | 168 | 357 | 76 | 133 | 44 | 9 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 134 | 119 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 92 | 189 | 168 | 357 | 76 | 133 | 44 | 9 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 23 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 222 | 449 | 167 | 61 | 17 | 212 | 40 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +0 | 0.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 509 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 113 | 396 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 220 | 447 | 165 | 61 | 17 | 212 | 40 | -55 | +0 | -12 | +138 | +14 | 8.8 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2105 | 1871 | 293 | 64 | 9 | 39 | 199 | 744 | 15 | 25 | 14 | 157 | 243 | 263 | 506 | 106 | 230 | 35 | 9 | 227 | 40 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +0 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 91 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 230 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 157 | 244 | 265 | 508 | 107 | 232 | 35 | 9 | 227 | 40 | -55 | +0 | -12 | +138 | +14 | 8.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 134 PAwOBA .225 → .165 (−60)K% 35.1% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.07% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.69% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.958 | 12.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | ×0.977 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 4.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .225 → .165; ISO .106 → .078; BABIP .159 → .133. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 159 PAwOBA .260 → .186 (−74)K% 34.6% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.59% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.46% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 12.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.309 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .260 → .186; ISO .138 → .088; BABIP .237 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 251 PAwOBA .353 → .280 (−73)K% 26.7% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.69% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.73% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 18.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.079 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.91% | ÷0.881 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.30% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .353 → .280; ISO .209 → .165; BABIP .287 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 248 PAwOBA .310 → .237 (−73)K% 31.9% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.85% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.53% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 11.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.74% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.50% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .310 → .237; ISO .167 → .120; BABIP .261 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 31 PAwOBA .166 → .114 (−52)K% 35.5% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.48% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 10.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.121 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.53% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .166 → .114; ISO .103 → .059; BABIP .118 → .105. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 341 PAwOBA .301 → .243 (−57)K% 24.0% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.05% | ÷1.027 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .243; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .290 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 39 PAwOBA .228 → .185 (−43)K% 38.5% → 46.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.46% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.095 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 20.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.958 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 3.83% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .185; ISO .128 → .099; BABIP .304 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 340 PAwOBA .274 → .220 (−54)K% 21.2% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.18% | ÷1.011 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 7.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 14.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.44% | ÷1.036 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.949 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷1.059 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 107, 3B 90, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .274 → .220; ISO .118 → .095; BABIP .251 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).