Riley Adams — OGILVIE

Riley AdamsC Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 R/R 6'4" / 263 lbs AAA Svc 3.994 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION130 act + 173 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 5564vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .310 / .412

PA173

HR6

K%31

BB%8

BABIP309

ISO183

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2613.7%

xwOBA

260.280

POWER50

Barrel%

508.2

Avg EV

7590.8

Bat Spd

9078.3

EYE45

Chase%

3235.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

3226.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 416 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

152

264

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

238

274

▶R

ISO

110

124

▶R

BABIP

241

311

▶▶R

35.5%

34.5%

—

BB%

6.6%

6.4%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.994 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$0.2M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	409	364	70	23	1	2	35	138	8	3	0	192	278	277	555	85	301	34	9	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	409	349	86	26	1	4	50	93	8	3	0	246	354	361	715	115	323	23	12	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	415	363	74	13	2	14	35	161	14	4	1	204	299	366	665	163	314	39	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	415	352	92	18	2	14	46	123	14	4	1	261	369	443	812	182	358	30	11	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	268	225	46	13	2	8	27	98	15	0	0	204	330	387	716	182	317	37	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	268	219	50	14	2	9	33	86	15	0	0	228	367	434	801	205	328	32	12	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	278	253	47	12	0	8	19	91	5	0	1	186	256	328	584	142	252	33	7	263	60	-13	-0	-6	+5	+8	-0.6
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	278	249	49	12	0	9	23	87	5	0	1	197	278	353	631	157	260	31	8	285	76	-7	-0	-6	+5	+8	-0.1
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	158	143	39	13	2	4	11	45	2	0	0	273	333	476	809	203	368	28	7	347	124	+4	+0	-4	+3	+4	0.7
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	158	143	39	13	2	4	11	45	2	0	0	273	333	476	809	203	368	28	7	351	127	+5	+0	-4	+3	+4	0.8
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	300	265	60	12	1	9	22	93	10	2	0	226	310	381	691	155	307	31	7	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	300	260	67	13	1	11	26	79	10	2	0	258	347	442	789	185	324	26	9	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	286	263	49	8	0	8	18	110	5	1	0	186	252	308	560	122	283	38	6	252	51	-16	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.3
2025	29	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	286	263	49	8	0	8	18	110	5	1	0	186	252	308	560	122	283	38	6	255	54	-15	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	WSH	—	130	112	26	3	0	6	13	41	5	0	1	232	338	420	758	188	308	32	10	328	109	+1	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.7
YTD	30	AAA	WSH	—	130	106	28	3	0	7	19	34	5	0	1	264	400	491	891	226	323	26	15	397	162	+9	-0	+0	+2	+4	1.5
ROS	30	AAA	WSH	10%	173	153	35	8	1	6	14	54	4	1	1	229	310	412	722	183	299	31	8	311	96	-1	-0	-3	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	30	MLB	WSH	10%	17	16	4	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	250	294	500	794	250	299	29	6	295	84	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	30	AAA	WSH	—	147	128	30	4	0	7	14	46	5	0	1	234	333	430	763	195	307	31	10	324	106	+1	-0	-0	+3	+4	0.7
TOT	30	AAA	WSH	—	303	265	61	11	1	12	27	95	9	1	2	230	322	415	737	185	308	31	9	318	102	+1	-1	-3	+5	+9	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	WSH	27%	279	249	54	12	1	9	22	87	6	1	1	217	296	382	678	165	295	31	8	306	92	-2	-0	-8	+5	+8	0.2
2028	32	MLB	WSH	37%	253	226	48	10	1	8	20	80	5	1	1	212	291	372	663	159	291	32	8	300	87	-4	-0	-8	+5	+7	-0.1
2027	31	MLB	WSH	27%	76	68	14	3	0	2	6	24	2	0	0	206	289	338	628	132	295	32	8	290	80	-2	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	32	MLB	WSH	37%	95	86	18	4	0	3	7	30	2	0	0	209	284	360	645	151	291	32	7	284	75	-3	+0	-3	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1037	933	197	46	4	27	80	335	20	2	1	211	288	356	643	145	296	32	8	289	79	-24	+0	-24	+26	+29	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	124	29	3	17	50	210	13	1	1	212	289	359	648	147	297	32	8	289	79	-15	-0	-15	+17	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	2819	2504	522	124	11	76	223	957	74	13	5	208	292	358	650	149	300	34	8	289	79	-66	+1	-38	+50	+80	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	122	29	3	18	51	221	17	3	1	211	294	366	660	154	305	34	8	289	79	-15	+0	-9	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	409	349	86	26	1	4	50	93	8	3	0	246	354	361	715	115	323	23	12	327	109	+4	+1	—	—	+12	1.7
2019	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	332	287	74	15	2	11	32	105	10	3	1	258	353	439	792	181	362	32	10	351	127	+10	+0	—	—	+9	2.0
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	83	65	18	3	0	3	14	18	4	1	0	277	434	462	895	185	341	22	17	406	169	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2021	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	120	99	22	8	1	2	15	40	6	0	0	222	358	384	742	162	351	33	12	341	119	+3	+0	-5	+5	+3	0.6
2021	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	148	120	28	6	1	7	18	46	9	0	0	233	374	475	849	242	309	31	12	377	146	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2022	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	155	142	25	4	0	5	12	46	1	0	1	176	245	310	555	134	220	30	8	252	51	-9	-0	-6	+5	+4	-0.6
2022	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	123	107	24	8	0	4	11	41	4	0	0	224	320	411	731	187	317	33	9	326	107	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	158	143	39	13	2	4	11	45	2	0	0	273	333	476	809	203	368	28	7	351	127	+5	+0	-4	+3	+4	0.8
2024	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	130	116	26	5	1	2	10	35	2	1	0	224	297	336	633	112	296	27	8	284	76	-4	+0	-2	+5	+4	0.3
2024	28	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	170	144	41	8	0	9	16	44	8	1	0	285	385	528	912	243	348	26	9	399	163	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.8
2025	29	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	286	263	49	8	0	8	18	110	5	1	0	186	252	308	560	122	283	38	6	255	54	-15	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	849	763	161	38	4	21	66	276	16	2	1	211	288	354	641	143	299	33	8	289	79	-20	+0	-18	+23	+24	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	8	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
	/162	664	24	2	232	309	406	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,050	27	3	214	287	361	+19	-21	2.5	2.6
	/162	664	17	2	214	287	361	+11.9	-13.5	1.6	pk7: 3
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Adams (OGILVIE)	30	40	50	45	45	230/322/415	185	308	12	1	31%	9%	102	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	52→55	43→45	47	220/295/386	166	285	21	6	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/278/363	155	281	19	6	32%	8%	78	+0.2	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→48	47→50	49→45	46	249/307/386	138	316	15	5	26%	7%	95	+1.4	225/282/357	132	285	15	11	26%	7%	77	+0.1	192/248/303	111	240	13	13	25%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→47	51→55	45→40	48	232/299/392	160	279	19	4	24%	8%	94	+1.3	231/315/383	152	289	17	7	24%	10%	98	+1.6	214/312/358	144	276	15	5	26%	11%	87	+0.3
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	45→42	50	46→45	44	229/296/383	154	293	18	6	28%	7%	91	+1.1	226/275/382	156	289	20	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	216/261/366	150	271	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	40→48	55→60	48→30	42	215/279/397	183	294	23	3	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/276/359	155	296	19	6	36%	8%	76	+0.1	154/240/282	128	225	16	0	37%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Nick Hundley 2014 · MLB	30	45→46	49→55	40	45	229/288/378	149	279	17	3	25%	7%	85	+0.7	239/287/375	136	292	15	5	23%	6%	84	+0.6	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	46→48	51→55	45→50	47	237/295/399	163	280	18	7	23%	7%	94	+1.3	215/284/374	159	260	18	6	24%	8%	83	+0.6	182/261/345	163	213	18	2	24%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	45	52→55	45→40	40	230/281/398	168	305	21	5	31%	6%	88	+0.9	205/264/366	161	262	19	4	29%	7%	72	-0.2	181/239/323	142	224	19	3	29%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	234/298/355	121	285	14	3	23%	7%	83	+0.6	239/320/398	159	300	19	5	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/318/362	142	290	17	0	28%	11%	89	+0.4
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Andrew Knapp 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→45	44→40	42	197/265/331	134	270	16	4	32%	7%	64	-0.8	221/288/352	131	304	14	5	30%	7%	79	+0.3	224/294/348	124	309	13	3	30%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Aramis Garcia 2022 · MLB	29	40→42	47→55	44→45	37	207/255/336	129	285	16	4	33%	5%	61	-1.0	197/239/324	127	269	16	7	33%	4%	51	-1.7	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Chad Wallach 2022 · MLB	30	39→49	53→50	47→40	42	210/279/379	169	284	22	4	34%	8%	82	+0.5	197/264/339	142	276	18	5	34%	7%	66	-0.6	186/257/330	144	259	20	2	35%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	41	48→45	46→30	43	210/274/348	137	279	17	4	30%	8%	72	-0.2	197/260/308	111	344	12	5	43%	7%	56	-1.3	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Taylor Teagarden 2014 · MLB	30	40→50	50→60	43→30	39	208/260/357	148	285	18	6	33%	6%	69	-0.4	235/293/395	160	344	21	4	36%	7%	92	+1.2	236/297/390	154	354	21	0	37%	7%	91	+0.4
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	44→48	47→55	49→45	43	220/287/358	138	285	15	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	229/296/387	158	286	17	8	25%	7%	92	+1.2	221/293/387	166	269	18	6	24%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41	47→50	43→55	46	210/282/340	130	272	15	6	28%	8%	73	-0.1	204/283/350	146	267	16	16	29%	9%	77	+0.1	187/272/333	146	244	16	19	29%	10%	67	-0.4