Jake Rogers — OGILVIE

Jake RogersC Detroit Tigers

Age 31 R/R 5'11" / 201 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 5.233 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 78 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 4552vR 70

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .371

PA78

HR3

K%28

BB%9

BABIP244

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

5011.0%

xwOBA

300.285

POWER50

Barrel%

599.5

Avg EV

4989.0

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE55

Chase%

8924.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 504 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

129

375

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

245

269

▶R

ISO

104

162

▶▶R

BABIP

217

249

▶R

28.7%

28.8%

—

BB%

11.6%

5.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.4M
Totals		$1M		$0.8M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	82	75	11	2	1	1	5	35	2	1	0	147	220	240	460	93	256	43	6	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	82	72	15	3	1	1	8	25	2	1	0	208	305	319	624	111	304	30	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	2 teams	—	491	446	91	26	3	8	30	140	8	14	8	204	267	330	596	126	272	29	6	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	2 teams	—	491	422	110	25	4	18	54	102	8	14	8	261	355	467	822	206	298	21	11	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	2 teams	—	460	413	70	14	1	14	31	163	7	7	1	169	239	310	549	140	230	35	7	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	2 teams	—	460	400	85	20	1	17	44	123	7	7	1	212	302	395	697	183	255	27	10	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	431	377	73	14	2	17	37	142	10	0	0	194	283	377	660	183	252	33	9	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	431	364	77	16	2	18	50	130	10	0	0	212	323	415	738	203	268	30	12	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	127	113	28	5	3	7	11	46	0	1	0	248	315	531	845	283	350	36	9	349	126	+4	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.2
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	127	113	27	5	3	6	11	46	0	1	0	239	306	496	802	257	344	36	9	340	118	+3	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.1
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	365	331	77	12	0	23	28	118	3	1	1	233	298	477	776	245	281	32	8	332	112	+5	-0	+15	+7	+10	3.8
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	365	331	73	11	0	21	28	118	3	1	1	221	287	444	731	224	268	32	8	320	103	+1	-0	+15	+7	+10	3.4
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	337	310	64	17	1	11	22	99	3	1	0	206	266	374	640	168	262	29	7	278	71	-11	+0	+23	+6	+10	2.8
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	337	310	61	16	1	10	22	99	3	1	0	197	257	352	608	155	251	29	7	271	66	-13	+0	+23	+6	+10	2.6
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	160	139	28	8	2	3	17	42	1	0	0	201	293	353	646	151	260	26	11	290	80	-4	+0	+3	+3	+5	0.7
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	160	138	28	8	2	3	18	42	1	0	0	203	299	355	654	152	263	26	11	291	81	-3	+0	+3	+3	+5	0.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	DET	—	100	85	15	2	1	3	11	30	1	1	0	176	278	329	608	153	222	30	11	267	62	-4	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.1
YTD	31	MLB	DET	—	100	85	15	2	1	3	11	30	1	1	0	176	278	329	608	153	222	30	11	270	65	-4	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.1
ROS	31	MLB	DET	100%	78	70	14	3	0	3	7	22	1	1	0	200	282	371	653	171	256	28	9	297	85	-1	+0	+2	+1	+2	0.4
ROS	31	MLB	DET	100%	78	70	14	3	0	3	7	22	1	1	0	200	282	371	653	171	251	28	9	285	76	-2	+0	+2	+1	+2	0.3
FULL	31	MLB	DET	—	178	155	29	5	1	6	18	52	2	2	0	187	280	348	628	161	232	29	10	275	68	-6	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.4
TOT	31	MLB	DET	—	178	155	29	5	1	6	18	52	2	2	0	187	280	348	628	161	232	29	10	280	73	-6	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	DET	92%	249	222	44	9	1	8	23	71	2	1	0	198	279	356	635	158	253	29	9	292	82	-5	+0	+1	+4	+7	0.8
2028	33	MLB	DET	92%	214	191	37	7	1	7	19	62	2	1	0	194	274	351	624	157	247	29	9	284	76	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2029	34	MLB	DET	88%	170	152	28	5	1	5	15	50	1	1	0	184	262	329	591	145	240	29	9	274	68	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
2027	32	MLB	DET	92%	229	204	40	8	1	7	21	65	2	1	0	196	278	348	626	152	249	28	9	280	73	-7	+0	+1	+4	+6	0.5
2028	33	MLB	DET	92%	197	175	34	7	1	6	18	57	2	1	0	194	277	349	625	154	243	29	9	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2029	34	MLB	DET	88%	149	134	25	5	1	4	13	44	1	0	0	187	264	328	592	142	235	30	9	264	60	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1752	1572	311	63	9	64	148	541	14	6	1	198	273	372	644	174	253	31	8	284	76	-48	+1	+45	+37	+50	8.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	115	23	3	24	55	201	5	2	0	197	272	370	642	173	252	31	8	284	76	-18	+0	+17	+14	+18	3.2
Career	—			—	3164	2839	565	122	16	107	245	990	40	29	10	199	272	366	638	167	259	31	8	281	73	-97	+2	+45	+56	+90	9.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	116	25	3	22	50	203	8	6	2	199	271	365	637	166	258	31	8	281	73	-20	+0	+9	+12	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	82	72	15	3	1	1	8	25	2	1	0	208	305	319	624	111	304	30	10	288	79	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2017	22	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	375	320	84	18	3	12	45	74	4	13	8	263	360	450	810	188	300	20	12	356	130	+13	-1	—	—	+11	2.3
2017	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	116	102	26	7	1	6	9	28	4	1	0	255	339	520	859	265	290	24	8	372	143	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2018	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	408	352	77	15	1	17	41	112	6	7	1	219	311	412	723	193	261	27	10	316	100	+0	+1	—	—	+12	1.3
2018	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	52	48	8	5	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	167	231	271	502	104	216	21	6	230	34	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2019	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	128	112	14	3	0	4	13	51	1	0	0	125	222	259	481	134	175	40	10	221	28	-10	+0	+1	+8	+4	0.1
2019	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	191	166	37	10	1	9	18	53	6	0	0	223	321	458	779	235	269	28	9	343	121	+4	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2019	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	112	86	26	3	1	5	19	26	3	0	0	302	444	535	979	233	356	23	17	417	177	+10	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	127	113	27	5	3	6	11	46	0	1	0	239	306	496	802	257	344	36	9	340	118	+3	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.1
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	365	331	73	11	0	21	28	118	3	1	1	221	287	444	731	224	268	32	8	320	103	+1	-0	+15	+7	+10	3.4
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	337	310	61	16	1	10	22	99	3	1	0	197	257	352	608	155	251	29	7	271	66	-13	+0	+23	+6	+10	2.6
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	142	123	23	5	2	3	15	39	1	0	0	187	281	333	614	146	241	27	11	274	68	-5	+0	+3	+3	+4	0.5
2025	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	18	15	5	3	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	333	444	533	978	200	417	17	17	431	188	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1099	989	198	40	6	44	89	353	8	3	1	200	272	386	658	186	258	32	8	290	80	-25	+0	+44	+25	+31	7.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	10	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
	/162	664	17	0	221	273	354	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#2Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#3Henry Blancolast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,779 PA	14	2,779	65	5	221	284	359	+27	+49	8.6	9.6
	/162	664	16	1	221	284	359	+6.6	+11.7	2.1	pk7: 11
#4Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	10	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.2
	/162	664	19	24	227	280	381	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	1,952	72	8	199	272	376	+35	+74	4.3	4.3
	/162	664	25	3	199	272	376	+11.9	+25.2	1.5	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Rogers (OGILVIE)	31	40	50	45	55	187/280/348	161	232	6	2	29%	10%	73	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	52→55	43→45	47	220/295/386	166	285	21	6	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/278/363	155	281	19	6	32%	8%	78	+0.2	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	46→47	49→55	43→40	53	230/316/381	151	281	16	8	24%	10%	98	+1.6	203/297/330	127	279	12	6	29%	11%	78	+0.2	175/277/284	109	247	10	2	31%	11%	55	-0.6
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→46	51→55	48→40	41	229/267/387	159	267	20	7	24%	5%	79	+0.3	210/260/392	182	238	26	6	25%	5%	79	+0.3	180/232/364	185	186	30	1	25%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Tom Murphy 2022 · MLB	31	44→34	55→60	47→45	50	232/317/414	182	298	24	4	30%	11%	108	+2.3	249/327/436	187	327	23	5	29%	10%	117	+2.9	292/341/547	255	363	32	0	28%	6%	150	+1.4
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	40→48	55→60	48→30	42	215/279/397	183	294	23	3	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/276/359	155	296	19	6	36%	8%	76	+0.1	154/240/282	128	225	16	0	37%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Brandon Larson 2007 · MLB	31	44→42	51→50	44→45	41	229/281/386	157	297	20	6	30%	6%	85	+0.7	226/269/377	151	283	19	8	27%	5%	78	+0.2	209/242/358	149	242	21	4	24%	4%	59	-0.4
✕Nick Hundley 2015 · MLB	31	45→46	48→55	43→40	43	228/278/363	135	281	16	4	25%	6%	77	+0.1	244/291/389	145	296	15	5	22%	6%	89	+1.0	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	46→50	54→60	43→50	39	240/282/413	174	309	22	5	30%	6%	92	+1.2	234/275/426	192	308	25	13	32%	5%	93	+1.3	218/259/399	181	289	23	16	33%	5%	76	+0.0
●Robinson Chirinos 2016 · MLB	32	44→46	52→60	44→50	49	227/301/398	171	263	20	3	22%	8%	97	+1.5	236/330/449	213	284	26	4	26%	10%	122	+3.3	230/343/435	205	296	26	2	29%	11%	122	+2.1
✕Mike Rivera 2008 · MLB	31	39	54→55	41→45	41	213/255/381	168	234	23	7	22%	4%	73	-0.1	218/283/355	137	268	15	8	24%	7%	78	+0.2	192/275/296	104	262	10	4	28%	9%	55	-0.5
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	42	52→50	49→50	44	224/282/384	160	260	22	7	24%	6%	85	+0.7	207/292/345	138	268	16	11	28%	9%	79	+0.3	157/276/271	115	204	15	12	29%	12%	54	-0.6
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	44→50	52→55	47→55	51	228/308/399	171	279	20	4	26%	10%	99	+1.7	221/290/397	176	278	22	8	28%	9%	92	+1.2	202/272/375	174	250	23	8	29%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Kelly Stinnett 2001 · MLB	31	45	49→50	42→40	48	230/302/374	144	266	18	4	21%	8%	91	+1.1	242/318/403	161	302	19	6	25%	9%	105	+2.1	240/319/397	157	308	17	5	26%	9%	95	+0.4
✕Chris Herrmann 2019 · MLB	31	44→48	52→50	54→50	52	226/310/391	165	287	19	7	28%	11%	98	+1.6	224/298/368	144	316	16	5	32%	9%	87	+0.8	199/272/324	125	298	13	0	35%	8%	63	-0.2
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	42→40	55→65	47→45	41	223/287/406	183	274	23	7	28%	6%	93	+1.3	203/268/336	133	258	16	6	27%	6%	66	-0.6	166/235/261	96	210	12	0	27%	7%	32	-1.0
✕Pedro Severino 2022 · MLB	29	48	48→50	47→45	48	241/306/377	137	298	16	4	24%	8%	93	+1.3	234/292/369	135	299	15	9	26%	7%	85	+0.7	224/277/350	126	286	14	11	26%	6%	69	-0.2