Zack Short — OGILVIE

Zack ShortSS Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA HR -9% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

wRC+†vL -655vR 38

AVG/OBP/SLG.169 / .274 / .293

PA350

HR9

SB7

K%31

BB%12

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

60→60

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-2M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	60	49	12	2	0	0	9	13	2	5	1	.245	.383	.286	.669	.041	.333	22	15	.304	91	-1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2017	22	A	2 teams	577	499	100	22	5	12	63	141	9	18	10	.200	.301	.337	.638	.136	.251	24	11	.283	75	-17	-0	+0	+6	+16	0.6
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	524	462	84	24	1	16	56	182	5	8	3	.182	.277	.342	.619	.160	.258	35	11	.275	69	-19	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.2
2019	24	AAA	4 teams	351	307	53	14	2	6	36	126	6	5	3	.173	.272	.290	.562	.117	.266	36	10	.260	57	-17	-0	+0	+4	+10	-0.4
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	382	324	55	10	0	14	44	115	7	4	1	.170	.283	.330	.613	.160	.203	30	12	.265	61	-17	+0	-2	+4	+11	-0.4
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	559	485	89	25	0	9	62	177	5	11	5	.184	.283	.291	.573	.107	.262	32	11	.262	59	-26	+0	+0	+2	+16	-0.8
2023	28	MLB	2 teams	353	309	60	12	0	12	40	104	0	6	1	.194	.287	.350	.636	.155	.247	29	11	.278	71	-12	+1	-2	+1	+10	-0.2
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	197	165	25	5	0	0	26	57	2	5	1	.152	.275	.182	.456	.030	.231	29	13	.227	32	-15	+1	-1	+1	+6	-1.0
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	531	461	74	17	0	14	56	174	8	5	3	.161	.263	.289	.551	.128	.216	33	11	.252	51	-29	-0	-1	+6	+15	-1.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	60	52	10	1	0	1	6	19	0	2	1	.192	.276	.269	.545	.077	.265	32	10	.231	35	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
ROS	31	MLB	WSH	290	252	43	8	0	7	33	90	3	5	2	.171	.274	.286	.560	.115	.232	31	11	.263	59	-13	+0	-1	+3	+8	-0.3
TOT	31	MLB	WSH	350	304	53	9	0	8	39	109	3	7	3	.174	.275	.283	.557	.109	.237	31	11	.257	55	-18	+0	-1	+4	+10	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB 54%	WSH	361	312	52	10	0	8	43	98	3	5	1	.167	.274	.276	.549	.109	.215	27	12	.261	58	-17	+1	-5	+4	+10	-0.8
2028	33	MLB 65%	WSH	331	286	47	9	0	7	39	93	3	3	1	.164	.271	.269	.541	.105	.213	28	12	.256	54	-17	+0	-6	+4	+9	-1.0
2029	34	MLB 74%	WSH	287	249	40	7	0	6	34	83	2	2	0	.161	.267	.261	.528	.100	.210	29	12	.249	49	-17	+0	-6	+3	+8	-1.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4803	4160	734	165	8	111	541	1453	55	82	32	.176	.280	.300	.580	.124	.237	30	11	.264	60	-216	+4	-25	+44	+136	-5.9
/ 162G	—			650	563	99	22	1	15	73	197	7	11	4	.176	.278	.298	.576	.123	.237	30	11	.264	60	-29	+1	-3	+6	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	60	44	14	3	0	0	14	9	2	5	1	.318	.500	.386	.886	.068	.400	15	23	.417	178	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.8
2017	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	277	232	61	11	3	6	40	50	2	3	5	.263	.376	.414	.790	.151	.307	18	14	.354	129	+9	-1	—	—	+8	1.6
2017	22	A	South Bend Cubs	300	236	56	17	3	7	54	54	7	15	5	.237	.394	.424	.818	.186	.278	18	18	.368	140	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.3
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	524	436	99	28	2	17	82	136	5	8	3	.227	.356	.417	.773	.190	.290	26	16	.348	125	+15	+0	—	—	+15	3.0
2019	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	160	133	28	9	0	6	21	50	5	2	1	.211	.340	.414	.753	.203	.282	31	13	.338	117	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2019	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	74	64	16	3	2	0	9	18	0	0	1	.250	.342	.359	.702	.109	.340	24	12	.315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2019	24	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	25	16	6	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	.375	.600	.500	1.100	.125	.500	16	32	.500	241	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	92	77	18	4	0	1	15	26	0	3	1	.234	.359	.325	.683	.091	.340	28	16	.320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	184	156	22	4	0	6	22	59	0	2	0	.141	.247	.282	.529	.141	.165	32	12	.238	40	-12	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.5
2021	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	198	157	37	7	0	9	33	47	7	2	1	.236	.391	.452	.843	.217	.275	24	17	.378	148	+11	+0	—	—	+6	1.7
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	559	459	105	31	1	11	88	149	5	11	5	.229	.359	.373	.731	.144	.308	27	16	.332	112	+8	+0	—	—	+16	2.4
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	253	221	45	9	0	7	28	66	0	5	0	.204	.293	.339	.633	.136	.255	26	11	.284	76	-7	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.0
2023	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	100	82	16	4	0	5	18	32	0	1	1	.195	.340	.427	.767	.232	.244	32	18	.344	122	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	88	70	9	3	0	0	14	24	1	2	1	.129	.282	.171	.454	.043	.196	27	16	.225	30	-7	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	109	88	19	3	1	0	19	27	1	3	0	.216	.361	.273	.634	.057	.311	25	17	.303	90	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	30	MLB	Houston Astros	56	50	11	2	0	2	4	18	1	0	1	.220	.291	.380	.671	.160	.300	32	7	.296	85	-1	-0	-1	+6	+2	0.5
2025	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	475	385	77	18	0	15	78	120	7	5	2	.200	.345	.364	.708	.164	.243	25	16	.324	106	+3	+0	—	—	+13	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			581	497	87	18	0	15	68	167	2	9	2	.175	.277	.302	.579	.127	.224	29	12	.262	59	-27	+1	-7	+12	+16	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zack Short (OGILVIE)	31	35	50	45	60	.169/.274/.293	.124	.226	9	5	31%	12%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	37	45	47→40	40	.193/.251/.306	.113	.249	14	3	29%	6%	52	-1.6	.210/.265/.321	.111	.268	13	6	26%	6%	61	-1.0	.206/.263/.282	.076	.258	8	0	22%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Joe Hudson 2022 · MLB	31	36	44→45	47→40	39	.188/.240/.299	.111	.269	13	5	35%	6%	44	-2.1	.203/.283/.350	.147	.288	19	8	34%	9%	77	+0.1	.183/.287/.336	.152	.261	22	8	36%	11%	73	-0.0
●Taylor Motter 2021 · MLB	31	34→44	46→60	46→55	45	.182/.247/.308	.126	.229	15	10	28%	8%	51	-1.7	.227/.303/.419	.192	.276	24	6	27%	10%	103	+1.9	.216/.294/.407	.191	.261	25	5	27%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Deven Marrero 2022 · MLB	31	40→48	46→45	49→50	41	.204/.260/.327	.122	.285	15	9	33%	7%	60	-1.0	.218/.277/.332	.114	.295	13	12	29%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.271/.286	.080	.268	9	15	25%	8%	49	-0.5
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	40	46→45	50	43	.204/.272/.327	.122	.263	14	12	28%	7%	66	-0.6	.217/.291/.342	.125	.292	13	9	29%	8%	78	+0.2	.211/.297/.329	.119	.288	12	5	29%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Dustin Garneau 2019 · MLB	31	39→38	50	41→45	44	.205/.268/.357	.152	.248	18	4	25%	7%	72	-0.2	.208/.285/.373	.165	.267	19	4	29%	8%	84	+0.6	.172/.264/.349	.177	.216	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→40	46→50	47→50	40	.188/.262/.313	.125	.291	14	6	38%	8%	58	-1.2	.194/.263/.307	.113	.327	12	10	41%	8%	57	-1.2	.169/.240/.260	.091	.301	11	12	45%	8%	32	-1.5
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41	47→50	43→55	46	.211/.283/.343	.132	.274	16	6	28%	8%	75	-0.0	.206/.284/.351	.145	.269	16	16	28%	9%	78	+0.2	.187/.272/.333	.146	.244	16	19	29%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Chad Wallach 2023 · MLB	31	36→46	46→50	49→40	42	.187/.258/.312	.125	.264	15	4	34%	8%	56	-1.3	.199/.266/.335	.136	.282	17	5	34%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.260/.330	.139	.268	19	2	35%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	34	49→50	45→40	46	.185/.257/.324	.139	.228	18	4	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.194/.268/.328	.134	.254	17	4	30%	8%	65	-0.7	.175/.254/.294	.120	.232	15	0	31%	8%	49	-0.8
✕Mike Rose 2007 · MLB	30	39	48→50	47→40	43	.202/.265/.345	.144	.270	16	5	31%	7%	67	-0.5	.211/.267/.337	.126	.284	14	5	29%	7%	66	-0.6	.206/.259/.307	.101	.276	11	2	28%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Jeff Mathis 2014 · MLB	31	39→46	45→50	44→45	42	.199/.253/.321	.122	.260	13	4	29%	6%	56	-1.3	.210/.267/.320	.110	.288	11	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	.213/.264/.317	.104	.291	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Pat Valaika 2023 · MLB	30	42→46	44→55	41→50	41	.213/.257/.323	.110	.267	13	4	26%	6%	57	-1.2	.206/.261/.316	.110	.268	12	6	27%	7%	58	-1.2	.177/.242/.268	.091	.233	11	4	28%	8%	37	-1.0
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	39→41	49→55	46→50	41	.205/.264/.346	.141	.280	17	7	32%	7%	67	-0.5	.209/.273/.378	.169	.267	21	12	29%	7%	80	+0.4	.217/.285/.398	.181	.290	23	7	32%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Jake Hager 2023 · MLB	30	41→51	45→50	50	45	.205/.269/.326	.121	.270	12	11	28%	8%	64	-0.8	.203/.255/.313	.110	.287	9	8	31%	6%	54	-1.4	.181/.222/.281	.100	.268	6	2	34%	4%	28	-0.9
✕Chris Truby 2006 · MLB	32	40→43	50	42→45	43	.212/.259/.365	.153	.251	19	5	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.205/.251/.328	.123	.264	14	9	27%	6%	56	-1.3	.179/.230/.277	.099	.235	9	11	28%	5%	33	-1.8
✕Sharlon Schoop 2018 · AAA	31	42→44	43→40	44→45	42	.211/.257/.318	.107	.265	11	4	25%	5%	56	-1.3	.220/.278/.344	.124	.288	13	7	27%	6%	72	-0.2	.197/.269/.280	.084	.271	9	0	29%	7%	50	-0.3
✕Brett Hayes 2015 · MLB	31	38	50→45	50→40	36	.205/.240/.356	.151	.265	19	6	31%	4%	59	-1.1	.185/.224/.299	.114	.245	13	5	30%	4%	37	-2.6	.153/.195/.232	.080	.211	9	0	32%	4%	5	-1.5
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	40	49→50	44→45	38	.209/.270/.352	.143	.267	18	6	29%	4%	72	-0.2	.213/.276/.337	.124	.297	14	8	32%	6%	70	-0.3	.172/.245/.252	.080	.248	10	0	33%	6%	37	-0.5
✕Brandon Macias 2019 · AAA	30	40→50	46→40	43→45	41	.205/.263/.330	.125	.263	15	7	28%	6%	63	-0.9	.217/.273/.323	.106	.290	12	8	28%	6%	65	-0.7	.203/.261/.274	.071	.272	9	2	27%	5%	44	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)