Zack Short — OGILVIE

Zack ShortSS Syracuse Mets

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION286 act + 190 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -120vR 31

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .276 / .288

PA190

HR4

K%30

BB%10

BABIP246

ISO108

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

897.0%

xwOBA

100.260

POWER50

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

3469.7

EYE60

Chase%

9014.8%

SPEED45

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 125 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-3

▶▶R

wOBA

182

241

▶▶R

ISO

—

084

—

BABIP

167

197

▶▶R

34.6%

25.3%

▶▶R

BB%

15.4%

12.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	60	49	12	2	0	0	9	13	2	5	1	245	383	286	669	41	333	22	15	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	60	44	14	3	0	0	14	9	2	5	1	318	500	386	886	68	400	15	23	417	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	2 teams	—	577	499	99	22	5	14	63	146	9	18	10	198	299	347	646	148	248	25	11	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	2 teams	—	577	468	117	28	6	13	94	104	9	18	10	250	385	419	804	169	293	18	16	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	461	84	23	1	16	57	185	5	8	3	182	279	341	620	158	262	35	11	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	436	99	28	2	17	82	136	5	8	3	227	356	417	773	190	290	26	16	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	4 teams	—	351	307	53	14	3	5	36	124	6	5	3	173	272	287	559	114	267	35	10	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	4 teams	—	351	290	68	18	2	7	53	98	6	5	3	234	364	383	747	148	326	28	15	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	382	325	56	10	0	14	43	115	7	4	1	172	283	332	615	160	207	30	11	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	382	313	59	11	0	15	55	106	7	4	1	188	323	367	690	179	221	28	14	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	483	89	24	1	9	64	176	5	11	5	184	286	294	580	110	263	31	11	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	459	105	31	1	11	88	149	5	11	5	229	359	373	731	144	308	27	16	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	2 teams	—	353	309	61	12	0	13	40	105	0	6	1	197	289	362	652	165	250	30	11	287	78	-9	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.1
2023	28	MLB	2 teams	—	353	303	61	13	0	12	46	98	0	6	1	201	307	363	670	162	253	28	13	301	89	-5	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.5
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	197	165	27	6	1	0	26	59	2	5	1	164	285	212	497	48	255	30	13	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	197	158	28	6	1	0	33	51	2	5	1	177	326	228	554	51	262	26	17	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	531	463	76	19	0	14	54	175	8	5	3	164	263	296	559	132	222	33	10	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	531	435	88	20	0	17	82	138	8	5	3	202	339	366	705	163	249	26	15	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	NYM	—	286	248	43	7	0	3	27	89	1	7	3	173	257	238	495	65	242	31	9	224	29	-23	+0	+0	+3	+8	-1.2
YTD	31	AAA	NYM	—	286	239	46	8	0	3	36	77	1	7	3	192	301	264	564	71	256	27	13	259	56	-14	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.3
ROS	31	AAA	NYM	100%	190	166	30	6	0	4	20	58	2	4	1	180	276	288	564	108	239	30	10	255	53	-10	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.4
ROS	31	MLB	NYM	100%	191	167	30	6	0	4	20	58	2	4	1	180	275	287	563	108	239	30	10	249	49	-11	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.5
FULL	31	AAA	NYM	—	477	415	73	13	0	7	47	147	3	11	4	176	265	258	522	82	244	31	10	234	37	-34	+1	-2	+5	+14	-1.7
TOT	31	AAA	NYM	—	476	414	73	13	0	7	47	147	3	11	4	176	265	258	523	82	244	31	10	236	39	-33	+1	-2	+5	+14	-1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	NYM	65%	361	317	54	10	0	7	38	110	3	5	2	170	265	268	534	98	235	30	11	249	49	-21	+0	-7	+4	+10	-1.4
2027	32	MLB	NYM	65%	235	206	35	7	0	4	25	72	2	3	1	170	266	262	528	92	235	31	11	243	44	-15	+0	-5	+3	+7	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1007	870	152	31	0	23	113	297	6	16	4	175	274	290	564	115	231	29	11	255	53	-53	+2	-14	+16	+29	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	98	20	0	15	73	192	4	10	3	174	274	290	564	116	230	30	11	255	53	-34	+1	-9	+11	+18	-1.4
Career	—			—	4085	3544	641	148	11	96	450	1266	49	76	31	181	282	310	592	129	247	31	11	266	62	-175	+3	-17	+36	+116	-3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	102	24	2	15	72	201	8	12	5	181	283	310	593	129	247	31	11	266	62	-28	+0	-3	+6	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	60	44	14	3	0	0	14	9	2	5	1	318	500	386	886	68	400	15	23	417	178	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.8
2017	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	277	232	61	11	3	6	40	50	2	3	5	263	376	414	790	151	307	18	14	354	129	+9	-1	—	—	+8	1.6
2017	22	A	South Bend Cubs	—	300	236	56	17	3	7	54	54	7	15	5	237	394	424	818	186	278	18	18	368	140	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.3
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	436	99	28	2	17	82	136	5	8	3	227	356	417	773	190	290	26	16	348	125	+15	+0	—	—	+15	3.0
2019	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	160	133	28	9	0	6	21	50	5	2	1	211	340	414	753	203	282	31	13	338	117	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2019	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	74	64	16	3	2	0	9	18	0	0	1	250	342	359	702	109	340	24	12	315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2019	24	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	—	25	16	6	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	375	600	500	1.100	125	500	16	32	500	241	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	92	77	18	4	0	1	15	26	0	3	1	234	359	325	683	91	340	28	16	320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	184	156	22	4	0	6	22	59	0	2	0	141	247	282	529	141	165	32	12	238	40	-12	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.5
2021	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	198	157	37	7	0	9	33	47	7	2	1	236	391	452	843	217	275	24	17	378	148	+11	+0	—	—	+6	1.7
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	459	105	31	1	11	88	149	5	11	5	229	359	373	731	144	308	27	16	332	112	+8	+0	—	—	+16	2.4
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	253	221	45	9	0	7	28	66	0	5	0	204	293	339	633	136	255	26	11	284	76	-7	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.0
2023	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	100	82	16	4	0	5	18	32	0	1	1	195	340	427	767	232	244	32	18	344	122	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	88	70	9	3	0	0	14	24	1	2	1	129	282	171	454	43	196	27	16	225	30	-7	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	109	88	19	3	1	0	19	27	1	3	0	216	361	273	634	57	311	25	17	303	90	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	56	50	11	2	0	2	4	18	1	0	1	220	291	380	671	160	300	32	7	296	85	-1	-0	-1	+6	+2	0.5
2025	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	475	385	77	18	0	15	78	120	7	5	2	200	345	364	708	164	243	25	16	324	106	+3	+0	—	—	+13	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	581	497	87	18	0	15	68	167	2	9	2	175	277	302	579	127	224	29	12	262	59	-27	+1	-7	+12	+16	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	1,158	27	16	173	271	290	+12	-8	-0.9	-0.6
	/162	664	15	9	173	271	290	+7.1	-4.5	-0.5	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zack Short (OGILVIE)	31	35	50	45	60	176/265/258	82	244	7	11	31%	10%	39	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dustin Garneau 2019 · MLB	31	37	47→50	39→45	44	194/256/327	132	239	15	4	26%	6%	59	-1.1	204/282/367	163	265	19	4	29%	8%	81	+0.4	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Taylor Motter 2021 · MLB	31	34→44	47→55	46→55	44	185/251/315	130	240	16	9	30%	8%	54	-1.4	225/300/405	180	277	22	6	26%	10%	98	+1.6	214/291/395	181	261	23	5	27%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	184/255/323	140	226	18	4	28%	8%	58	-1.2	193/267/322	129	258	16	4	30%	8%	63	-0.8	168/248/282	114	227	14	0	32%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41	47→50	43→55	46	210/282/340	130	272	15	6	28%	8%	73	-0.1	204/283/350	146	267	16	16	29%	9%	77	+0.1	187/272/333	146	244	16	19	29%	10%	67	-0.4
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→50	50→55	44	198/265/333	135	266	15	12	31%	8%	64	-0.8	203/276/336	133	297	16	11	35%	8%	70	-0.3	193/272/319	126	285	16	11	36%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	36	46→45	47→40	39	193/249/313	121	249	16	4	30%	5%	53	-1.5	214/268/326	112	275	13	6	26%	6%	63	-0.8	207/263/279	72	262	8	0	23%	7%	48	-0.7
✕Chad Wallach 2023 · MLB	31	36→46	48→50	49→40	41	192/259/328	136	266	17	4	34%	7%	61	-1.0	198/266/342	144	279	18	5	34%	8%	68	-0.5	186/257/330	144	259	20	2	35%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→41	46→50	46→50	41	185/262/309	123	286	14	5	38%	8%	57	-1.2	196/262/312	116	334	13	10	42%	7%	57	-1.2	165/231/258	94	300	12	12	46%	7%	28	-1.7
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	45→50	47→40	43	214/267/329	116	260	13	8	23%	6%	64	-0.8	230/280/357	127	295	15	7	26%	6%	76	+0.1	228/279/343	115	298	13	3	27%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Chad Moeller 2006 · MLB	31	43	47→50	42→30	46	221/278/357	136	260	15	3	22%	7%	76	+0.0	210/267/325	115	262	12	3	24%	6%	63	-0.8	206/258/306	100	258	8	0	23%	5%	51	-0.5
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	39→42	49→55	47→50	41	204/263/348	144	276	18	7	32%	7%	68	-0.5	210/275/380	170	267	21	12	29%	7%	81	+0.4	216/283/399	183	290	24	7	33%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Austin Hedges 2023 · MLB	30	33→40	46→60	48→45	45	180/244/293	113	213	16	5	25%	7%	45	-2.1	182/245/274	92	230	11	6	25%	7%	41	-2.3	190/259/290	100	237	13	5	25%	7%	49	-0.5
✕Mike Rose 2007 · MLB	30	38	48→50	46→40	43	200/263/344	144	268	16	5	31%	7%	66	-0.6	212/268/335	123	287	13	6	29%	7%	66	-0.6	207/260/307	101	277	11	2	28%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Joe Hudson 2022 · MLB	31	36	43→45	47→40	38	185/235/289	104	266	11	5	34%	6%	40	-2.4	203/284/350	147	292	19	8	35%	9%	78	+0.2	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Sharlon Schoop 2018 · AAA	31	42→44	46→40	44→45	41	213/258/339	126	263	14	4	25%	5%	63	-0.9	221/280/349	128	290	14	7	28%	6%	74	-0.1	194/268/276	82	269	8	0	29%	7%	49	-0.4
✕Yamid Haad 2009 · AAA	31	42	41→45	48→40	41	206/252/295	89	263	9	7	25%	5%	48	-1.9	228/267/335	107	292	11	5	25%	5%	65	-0.7	237/274/342	105	300	10	2	24%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Webster Rivas 2022 · MLB	31	44	44→45	47→40	47	219/283/331	112	278	12	4	25%	8%	71	-0.3	223/302/320	97	302	8	6	26%	10%	76	+0.1	215/312/283	68	302	2	2	26%	12%	69	-0.2