Zack Short

SS Syracuse Mets

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 1.507 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAAATL	109	.216/.361/.273	0	3	45	—	.179/.278/.221
2024	29	MLBATL	88	.129/.282/.171	0	2	38	-0.5
2025	30	AAAHOU	475	.200/.345/.364	15	5	51	—	.159/.260/.278
2025	30	MLBHOU	56	.220/.291/.380	2	0	86	0.4
2026	31	AAANYM	215	.229/.349/.358	4	3	51	—	.184/.269/.279
2026	31	MLBNYM	62	.140/.271/.180	0	0	36	-0.0
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBNYM	22	.185/.279/.303	0	0	70	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBNYM	52	.178/.271/.287	1	0	64	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.507First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.2M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed43

Avg EV35

Bat Spd34

Barrel%20

xwOBA10

CompsDavid Matranga (age 32) · Michael Pérez (age 31) · Joe Hudson (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7270vR 63

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .279 / .303

PA22

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP239

ISO50

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.168

POWER50

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

3469.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 125 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

182

241

▶▶R

ISO

—

084

—

BABIP

167

197

▶▶R

34.6%

25.3%

▶▶R

BB%

15.4%

12.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 1.507 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	60	44	14	3	0	0	14	9	2	5	1	318	500	386	886	68	400	15	23	417	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	277	232	61	11	3	6	40	50	2	3	5	263	376	414	790	151	307	18	14	354	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	South Bend Cubs	—	300	236	56	17	3	7	54	54	7	15	5	237	394	424	818	186	278	18	18	368	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	436	99	28	2	17	82	136	5	8	3	227	356	417	773	190	290	26	16	348	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	160	133	28	9	0	6	21	50	5	2	1	211	340	414	753	203	282	31	13	338	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	74	64	16	3	2	0	9	18	0	0	1	250	342	359	702	109	340	24	12	315	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	—	25	16	6	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	375	600	500	1.100	125	500	16	32	500	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	92	77	18	4	0	1	15	26	0	3	1	234	359	325	683	91	340	28	16	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	184	156	22	4	0	6	22	59	0	2	0	141	247	282	529	141	165	32	12	238	48	-11	+0	-2	+4	+4	-0.6
2021	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	198	157	37	7	0	9	33	47	7	2	1	236	391	452	843	217	275	24	17	378	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	459	105	31	1	11	88	149	5	11	5	229	359	373	731	144	308	27	16	332	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	253	221	45	9	0	7	28	66	0	5	0	204	293	339	633	136	255	26	11	284	82	-5	+1	-2	+1	+5	-0.0
2023	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	100	82	16	4	0	5	18	32	0	1	1	195	340	427	767	232	244	32	18	344	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	88	70	9	3	0	0	14	24	1	2	1	129	282	171	454	43	196	27	16	225	38	-6	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	109	88	19	3	1	0	19	27	1	3	0	216	361	273	634	57	311	25	17	303	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	56	50	11	2	0	2	4	18	1	0	1	220	291	380	671	160	300	32	7	296	86	-1	-0	-1	+6	+1	0.4
2025	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	475	385	77	18	0	15	78	120	7	5	2	200	345	364	708	164	243	25	16	324	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	62	50	7	2	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	140	271	180	451	40	212	31	13	216	36	-5	+0	+0	+3	+1	-0.0
2026	31	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	215	179	41	11	0	4	33	49	0	3	3	229	349	358	707	128	287	23	15	321	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	643	547	94	20	0	15	76	186	3	9	2	172	276	291	567	119	223	29	12	257	60	-30	+1	-7	+15	+14	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	60	49	11	2	0	0	9	13	2	5	1	224	367	265	632	41	315	22	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	277	246	52	9	2	6	26	73	2	3	5	211	292	337	629	126	266	26	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	300	254	48	13	3	7	36	72	7	15	5	189	306	346	653	157	229	24	12	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	461	86	25	1	14	57	170	5	8	3	187	283	336	619	150	261	32	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	160	138	22	7	0	4	16	63	5	2	1	159	270	297	568	138	238	39	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	74	67	15	3	2	0	6	23	0	0	1	224	288	328	616	104	307	31	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	—	25	19	6	2	0	0	5	6	1	0	0	316	480	421	901	105	376	24	20	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	184	157	22	4	0	6	21	59	0	2	0	140	242	280	522	140	165	32	11	239	48	-11	+0	-2	+4	+4	-0.6
2021	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	198	168	32	6	0	6	22	56	7	2	1	190	310	333	643	143	235	28	11	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	486	90	25	1	8	61	177	5	11	5	185	283	290	573	105	260	32	11	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	253	221	45	9	0	7	28	66	0	5	0	204	293	339	633	136	255	26	11	289	82	-5	+1	-2	+1	+5	-0.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	100	88	13	3	0	4	12	39	0	1	1	148	250	318	568	170	196	39	12	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	88	70	9	3	0	0	14	24	1	2	1	129	282	171	454	43	196	27	16	225	38	-6	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	109	95	17	2	1	0	12	34	1	3	0	179	278	221	499	42	271	31	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	56	50	11	2	0	2	4	18	1	0	1	220	291	380	671	160	300	32	7	295	86	-1	-0	-1	+6	+1	0.4
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	475	414	66	16	0	11	49	145	7	5	2	159	260	278	537	118	204	31	10	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	62	50	7	2	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	140	271	180	451	40	212	31	13	221	36	-5	+0	+0	+3	+1	-0.0
2026	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	215	190	35	9	0	3	22	59	0	3	3	184	269	279	548	95	234	27	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	60	49	11	2	0	0	9	13	2	5	1	224	367	265	632	41	306	22	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	—	60	44	14	3	0	0	14	9	2	5	1	318	500	386	886	68	400	15	23	417	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	577	500	100	22	5	12	62	145	9	18	10	200	299	336	635	136	254	25	11	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	577	468	117	28	6	13	94	104	9	18	10	250	385	419	804	169	293	18	16	361	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	461	86	25	1	14	57	170	5	8	3	187	283	336	619	150	260	32	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	436	99	28	2	17	82	136	5	8	3	227	356	417	773	190	290	26	16	348	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	351	307	55	15	2	6	36	124	6	5	3	179	278	300	578	121	274	35	10	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	351	290	68	18	2	7	53	98	6	5	3	234	364	383	747	148	326	28	15	340	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	325	55	10	0	13	43	115	7	4	1	169	280	320	600	151	206	30	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	382	313	59	11	0	15	55	106	7	4	1	188	323	367	690	179	221	28	14	311	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	486	90	25	1	8	61	177	5	11	5	185	283	290	573	105	267	32	11	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	459	105	31	1	11	88	149	5	11	5	229	359	373	731	144	308	27	16	332	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	309	59	12	0	11	40	105	0	6	1	191	284	337	620	146	247	30	11	278	74	-11	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	353	303	61	13	0	12	46	98	0	6	1	201	307	363	670	162	253	28	13	301	74	-11	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.4
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	165	26	5	1	0	26	58	2	5	1	158	280	200	480	42	243	29	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	197	158	28	6	1	0	33	51	2	5	1	177	326	228	554	51	262	26	17	268	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	531	464	77	18	0	13	53	163	8	5	3	166	263	289	552	123	218	31	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	531	435	88	20	0	17	82	138	8	5	3	202	339	366	705	163	249	26	15	321	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	277	240	42	11	0	3	30	78	1	3	3	175	269	258	528	83	238	28	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	277	229	48	13	0	4	41	68	1	3	3	210	332	319	651	109	272	25	15	298	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	60	49	11	2	0	0	9	13	2	5	1	224	367	265	632	41	315	22	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	577	501	100	22	5	12	62	145	9	18	10	200	299	335	635	136	247	25	11	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	524	457	86	25	1	14	57	170	5	8	3	188	283	339	622	151	261	32	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	351	306	55	15	2	6	36	124	6	5	3	180	278	301	579	121	271	35	10	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	329	55	10	0	13	43	115	7	4	1	167	280	316	596	149	201	30	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	559	488	90	25	1	8	61	177	5	11	5	184	283	289	572	105	260	32	11	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	310	59	12	0	11	40	105	0	6	1	190	284	335	619	145	238	30	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	167	26	5	1	0	26	58	2	5	1	156	280	198	477	42	237	29	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	531	465	77	18	0	13	53	163	8	5	3	166	263	288	551	123	214	31	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	277	244	42	11	0	3	30	78	1	3	3	172	269	254	523	82	229	28	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	167	26	5	1	0	26	58	2	5	1	156	280	198	477	42	237	29	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	531	465	77	18	0	13	53	163	8	5	3	166	263	288	551	123	214	31	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	277	244	42	11	0	3	30	78	1	3	3	172	269	254	523	82	229	28	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	327	287	55	12	1	7	34	90	3	4	1	191	284	312	595	121	247	28	10	272	70	-11	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	22	20	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	185	279	303	582	118	239	27	9	267	70	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	27%	189	166	31	7	0	4	19	53	2	1	0	184	275	295	571	112	241	28	10	262	64	-8	+0	-6	+2	+4	-0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	27%	52	47	8	2	0	1	5	15	0	0	0	178	271	287	558	109	233	29	10	257	64	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	695	594	102	22	0	16	81	201	3	9	2	172	274	290	564	118	223	29	12	257	65	-33	+1	-9	+15	+15	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	556	96	21	0	15	76	188	3	8	2	173	276	291	567	119	224	29	12	257	65	-30	+1	-8	+14	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4216	3662	668	160	10	89	458	1260	49	74	32	182	282	304	586	122	247	30	11	265	65	-46	+1	-15	+19	+23	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	104	25	2	14	71	194	8	11	5	184	285	310	594	126	249	30	11	265	65	-29	+1	-9	+12	+14	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 215 PAwOBA .318 → .243 (−75)K% 22.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.35%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	10.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	17.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.46%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	6.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .318 → .243; ISO .128 → .095; BABIP .287 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 475 PAwOBA .319 → .244 (−75)K% 25.3% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.26%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	30.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.42%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.43%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.35%
Singles /BIP	16.60%	÷1.012	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	14.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.79%	÷0.891	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	5.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.66%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .244; ISO .164 → .127; BABIP .243 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 109 PAwOBA .293 → .235 (−58)K% 24.8% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.77%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	31.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.51%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.982	11.18%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.85%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷0.977	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	21.85%
Doubles /BIP	4.92%	÷0.961	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	3.96%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .293 → .235; ISO .057 → .046; BABIP .311 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 100 PAwOBA .336 → .249 (−87)K% 32.0% → 38.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.00%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	38.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.00%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.00%	÷0.965	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	12.72%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.156	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	5.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.992	7.71%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .336 → .249; ISO .232 → .171; BABIP .244 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 559 PAwOBA .326 → .259 (−67)K% 26.7% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.65%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	31.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.003	11.05%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.84%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.015	×0.930	×0.962	×1.003	17.67%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.962	×1.003	7.89%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.962	×1.003	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .326 → .259; ISO .144 → .108; BABIP .308 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 198 PAwOBA .371 → .289 (−82)K% 23.7% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.74%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.038	×0.690	—	×1.018	11.28%
HBP% /PA	3.54%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	3.38%
Singles /BIP	19.09%	÷0.991	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	17.33%
Doubles /BIP	6.36%	÷1.013	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	5.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.920	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.18%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.018	5.54%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .289; ISO .217 → .155; BABIP .275 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 160 PAwOBA .332 → .258 (−74)K% 31.2% → 39.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	39.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.12%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.048	10.09%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	3.21%
Singles /BIP	15.66%	÷0.993	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	14.14%
Doubles /BIP	10.84%	÷1.014	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	8.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.029	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.23%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.048	5.63%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .258; ISO .203 → .145; BABIP .282 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATennessee Smokies · 74 PAwOBA .312 → .259 (−52)K% 24.3% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.32%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	30.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.16%	÷1.047	×0.680	—	×1.012	8.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.91%	÷1.051	×0.920	—	×1.012	21.18%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷0.977	×0.910	—	×1.012	6.15%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷0.957	×0.880	—	×1.012	4.05%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.142	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .312 → .259; ISO .109 → .101; BABIP .340 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.1	716	17	9	171	270	287	+8	-6	-0.4	-0.4
/162	664	15	9	+7.1	-5.1	-0.4	pk7: -0
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#3Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0
#6Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zack Short (OGILVIE)	32	35	50	45	60	189/281/309	120	247	5	3	27%	10%	70	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Michael Pérez 2024 · MLB	31	33	47→50	45→40	46	180/252/303	123	227	16	4	29%	8%	57	-1.8	205/274/328	123	274	14	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	182/256/298	116	243	13	0	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Joe Hudson 2023 · MLB	32	35	48→45	48→40	43	190/256/322	132	260	17	6	33%	8%	63	-1.4	191/279/316	125	294	15	9	37%	9%	71	-0.8	170/278/279	109	259	14	10	37%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Chris Owings 2024 · MLB	32	36→46	45→50	45→55	42	187/254/308	121	268	13	9	34%	8%	59	-1.7	212/286/336	124	301	14	13	32%	8%	77	-0.3	207/292/315	108	291	13	18	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Taylor Motter 2021 · MLB	31	34→44	45→50	46→55	44	182/247/303	120	231	14	9	28%	7%	55	-2.0	213/287/375	162	264	20	6	26%	9%	86	+0.3	198/274/355	157	245	19	5	27%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Chad Moeller 2008 · MLB	33	40	45→50	41→30	42	204/259/322	118	253	14	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	210/262/314	104	261	9	4	22%	5%	63	-1.4	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41→39	47→50	43→55	46	208/280/337	128	270	15	6	28%	8%	75	-0.5	200/278/342	142	262	16	16	29%	9%	76	-0.4	181/264/322	141	235	16	19	29%	10%	65	-0.8
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	44→45	47→40	43	210/265/323	113	259	13	8	24%	6%	66	-1.1	215/266/326	111	284	12	7	28%	6%	67	-1.1	207/257/302	95	280	10	3	29%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	35	45→40	47→40	39	188/244/299	111	241	14	4	29%	5%	53	-2.1	208/264/317	109	264	12	6	25%	6%	64	-1.3	195/249/267	72	243	7	0	22%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Chris Truby 2006 · MLB	32	38→43	50	41→45	43	203/249/352	149	239	19	4	25%	6%	67	-1.1	200/247/318	118	259	13	9	27%	5%	57	-1.8	168/217/261	93	221	9	11	28%	5%	32	-2.3
✕Sandy León 2021 · MLB	32	37→47	45	44→30	49	192/268/307	115	236	14	4	25%	9%	64	-1.3	200/277/301	101	264	11	4	27%	9%	66	-1.1	180/259/256	76	243	8	0	28%	9%	48	-0.7
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	44	44→45	47→50	42	220/261/338	118	263	12	9	22%	5%	68	-1.0	223/263/321	98	256	8	12	16%	5%	63	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	38→39	49→55	46→50	41	200/260/342	142	271	17	7	32%	7%	69	-0.9	204/268/369	165	259	20	12	29%	7%	78	-0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Anthony Bemboom 2023 · MLB	33	39	44→40	48→45	46	198/268/313	115	251	12	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	207/274/311	104	273	9	5	26%	8%	67	-1.1	195/267/283	89	260	6	1	26%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	44	47→45	44→40	43	226/279/361	135	267	15	9	22%	5%	80	-0.2	241/278/366	125	275	13	8	17%	4%	80	-0.1	254/278/370	115	283	11	2	14%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Henry Blanco 2004 · MLB	32	42	43→50	42→40	48	207/261/322	115	235	11	4	18%	6%	63	-1.3	222/271/367	145	240	16	3	15%	6%	78	-0.3	254/304/390	137	291	14	0	18%	7%	96	+0.4

Zack Short

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps