Gavin Fien

SS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 R/R 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#165ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ATEX	45	.220/.273/.341	0	1	30	—	.167/.205/.262
2026	19	AWSH	344	.242/.340/.401	10	6	58	—	.191/.267/.314
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBWSH	8	.227/.293/.369	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	21	MLBWSH	132	.232/.299/.386	4	2	93	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBWSH	242	.236/.304/.399	8	4	98	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$6M2034Arb-2$9M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO63

BB%55

Whiff%51

wRC+49

Z-Con%48

wOBA47

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsHao-Yu Lee (age 20) · Andy Pages (age 20) · Junior Caminero (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .293 / .369

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP286

ISO147

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+1.6	$8M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+1.4	$6M	+$0.8M
Totals		$30M		$46M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	41	9	3	1	0	3	11	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	290	24	7	269	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	297	72	13	2	10	44	91	0	6	2	242	340	401	741	158	312	26	13	331	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	42	7	2	1	0	2	15	0	1	0	167	205	262	466	95	260	33	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	309	59	10	2	8	32	124	0	6	2	191	267	314	581	123	276	36	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	42	7	2	1	0	2	15	0	1	0	167	205	262	466	95	250	33	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	41	9	3	1	0	3	11	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	290	24	7	269	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	309	59	10	2	8	32	124	0	6	2	191	267	314	581	123	283	36	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	297	72	13	2	10	44	91	0	6	2	242	340	401	741	158	312	26	13	331	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	43	7	2	1	0	2	15	0	1	0	163	205	256	460	93	260	33	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	309	59	10	2	8	32	124	0	6	2	191	267	314	581	123	276	36	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	45	43	7	2	1	0	2	15	0	1	0	163	205	256	460	93	260	33	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	344	309	59	10	2	8	32	124	0	6	2	191	267	314	581	123	276	36	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	WSH	4%	454	412	94	17	3	12	36	120	3	8	2	227	293	371	665	144	287	26	8	296	87	-7	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	WSH	4%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	227	293	369	662	142	286	25	12	295	87	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	WSH	45%	295	267	62	11	2	9	24	76	2	5	1	233	300	388	688	156	288	26	8	306	93	-2	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	WSH	62%	393	355	84	15	2	13	32	99	3	7	2	237	305	401	706	165	289	25	8	313	98	-1	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	WSH	68%	454	411	98	17	3	16	37	113	3	8	2	240	308	411	719	171	290	25	8	318	101	+1	+1	-0	+5	+10	1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	WSH	70%	493	445	108	19	3	18	41	122	4	9	2	242	311	417	729	175	292	25	8	322	104	+2	+1	+1	+5	+11	2.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	WSH	70%	515	463	113	20	3	19	43	126	4	9	2	243	313	421	734	178	292	24	8	324	105	+3	+1	+1	+6	+11	2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	WSH	71%	526	473	116	20	3	20	44	129	4	9	2	244	313	424	737	180	292	25	8	325	106	+4	+1	+1	+6	+11	2.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	WSH	69%	527	474	115	20	3	19	44	130	4	9	2	243	312	421	733	178	291	25	8	324	105	+3	+1	+1	+6	+11	2.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	WSH	69%	522	470	114	20	3	19	43	130	4	8	2	241	310	417	727	176	290	25	8	321	104	+2	+1	+1	+6	+11	2.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	WSH	67%	511	460	110	19	3	18	42	129	4	7	2	239	308	411	718	172	289	25	8	318	101	+1	+1	-0	+5	+11	1.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	WSH	72%	498	451	107	19	3	17	41	127	3	6	3	236	304	403	708	167	288	26	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+5	+11	1.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	WSH	75%	481	436	101	18	2	16	39	125	3	5	4	232	300	394	694	162	285	26	8	308	94	-3	-1	-2	+5	+10	1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	WSH	77%	460	417	95	16	2	15	37	121	3	4	7	227	294	382	675	155	281	26	8	300	89	-6	-2	-2	+5	+10	0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	WSH	79%	425	387	85	14	2	13	33	115	2	4	21	221	286	367	653	146	277	27	8	291	83	-9	-8	-3	+5	+9	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	WSH	45%	132	119	28	5	1	4	11	34	1	2	1	232	299	386	686	154	287	26	8	305	93	-1	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	WSH	62%	242	218	51	9	1	8	20	61	2	4	1	236	304	399	704	163	289	25	8	312	98	-1	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	WSH	68%	311	281	68	12	2	11	25	78	2	6	1	239	308	409	717	169	290	25	8	317	101	+1	+1	-0	+3	+7	1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	WSH	70%	344	310	75	14	2	12	28	85	3	6	2	242	311	415	726	173	291	25	8	321	104	+2	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	WSH	70%	362	326	79	14	2	13	30	89	3	6	2	243	312	419	731	176	291	25	8	323	105	+2	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	WSH	71%	371	334	82	15	2	14	31	91	3	6	2	243	313	422	734	178	291	25	8	324	106	+3	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	WSH	69%	365	329	79	14	2	13	30	90	3	6	2	242	312	419	731	177	291	25	8	323	105	+2	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	WSH	69%	359	323	78	14	2	13	30	89	3	5	2	241	310	415	725	174	290	25	8	320	104	+2	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	WSH	67%	342	309	74	13	2	12	28	86	2	5	2	239	307	409	716	170	289	25	8	317	101	+0	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	WSH	72%	357	323	77	14	2	12	29	91	2	5	2	236	304	402	706	166	287	25	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+4	+8	1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	WSH	75%	360	326	76	13	2	12	29	93	2	4	3	232	299	392	692	161	285	26	8	307	94	-2	-0	-1	+4	+8	0.8
2039	32	MLB CTX	WSH	77%	355	322	73	13	1	11	28	94	2	3	6	227	293	380	674	153	281	26	8	300	89	-5	-2	-2	+4	+8	0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	WSH	79%	334	303	66	11	1	10	26	90	2	3	16	221	286	365	651	145	276	27	8	290	83	-7	-6	-2	+4	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4234	3823	906	161	22	145	345	1071	30	61	42	237	305	404	710	167	289	25	8	314	96	-5	-5	-3	+45	+92	12.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	139	25	3	22	53	164	5	9	6	237	306	402	708	165	289	25	8	314	96	-1	-1	-0	+7	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6699	6051	1418	248	38	226	550	1736	44	101	55	234	303	400	703	166	289	26	8	310	96	-9	-2	-5	+68	+137	19.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	138	24	4	22	53	168	4	10	5	235	302	402	704	167	290	26	8	310	96	-1	-0	-0	+7	+14	2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 344 PAwOBA .326 → .254 (−72)K% 26.5% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.45%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	35.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	9.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.82%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	20.84%
Doubles /BIP	6.31%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.045	5.20%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.045	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	4.85%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	4.06%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .326 → .254; ISO .158 → .121; BABIP .312 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 45 PAwOBA .268 → .212 (−55)K% 24.4% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.44%	÷0.981	×1.360	—	—	33.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.002	×0.920	—	×1.050	16.07%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.123	×0.830	—	×1.050	7.76%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷1.039	×0.910	—	×1.050	3.06%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.037	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .268 → .212; ISO .122 → .094; BABIP .290 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3Steve Buechele'85-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,790 PA	7.2	4,790	137	17	242*	314*	413*	+16	+18	15.7	16.1
/162	664	19	2	+2.2	+2.5	2.2	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.4	4,242	146	62	238	303	407	+45	+6	15.3	13.3
/162	664	23	10	+7.1	+0.9	2.4	pk7: 11
#4Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#6Dick Green'63-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,462 PA	6.7	4,462	80	26	246*	308*	382*	+16	+18	11.8	12.8
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+2.7	1.8	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Fien (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	225/291/368	143	287	6	4	26%	8%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→55	48→65	53→45	45	233/290/368	135	275	17	10	22%	6%	86	+0.3	260/306/451	191	302	26	6	23%	6%	111	+2.1	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
●Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	44→54	45→55	49→50	41	220/273/347	128	293	12	11	29%	6%	74	-0.5	259/309/398	139	326	14	13	24%	6%	99	+1.3	267/319/412	145	327	15	13	22%	6%	104	+1.4
●Sal Stewart 2024 · A	20	49→53	43→55	48→50	55	236/321/346	110	286	11	10	21%	11%	92	+0.7	249/321/397	148	298	16	12	21%	9%	104	+1.6	255/323/425	170	297	21	13	21%	8%	109	+1.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→48	45→55	51→55	44	213/272/340	128	284	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.7	233/294/390	157	279	18	13	23%	7%	93	+0.8	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	49→51	43→60	53→50	45	240/293/355	115	293	11	17	22%	6%	83	+0.1	213/260/318	105	291	9	15	29%	5%	62	-1.4	262/323/475	213	304	29	14	24%	8%	123	+1.4
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	46→55	48→50	43→45	42	231/293/376	145	306	15	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	241/311/374	133	318	15	6	27%	8%	95	+0.9	239/318/366	128	315	14	5	27%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→55	48→50	51→55	44	224/289/369	144	298	16	14	29%	8%	86	+0.3	237/299/368	131	306	15	18	26%	7%	88	+0.5	247/296/385	137	310	14	21	24%	5%	91	+0.4
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	47	52→65	54→50	37	238/286/414	176	325	19	12	32%	5%	95	+0.9	228/279/388	160	328	18	10	34%	6%	86	+0.3	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
●Gary Sánchez 2013 · A	20	46→53	49→65	48→45	37	231/276/378	147	319	17	8	33%	5%	83	+0.1	238/288/377	139	300	16	5	25%	6%	87	+0.4	245/318/474	229	271	32	4	23%	8%	121	+2.3
✕Nick Yorke 2023 · A	21	46→56	47→50	46→55	43	233/287/366	133	297	16	9	27%	7%	84	+0.1	246/303/366	120	328	12	15	27%	7%	89	+0.5	256/312/370	114	340	11	18	26%	7%	91	+0.6
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2024 · A	20	51→61	47→50	51→45	43	252/310/387	134	303	15	8	22%	5%	97	+1.1	252/307/377	125	303	12	6	20%	6%	94	+0.9	251/307/374	124	298	12	4	19%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Harry Ford 2022 · A	19	45→53	47→45	52→55	43	223/289/361	138	311	13	9	31%	8%	84	+0.1	221/332/349	128	309	12	16	29%	12%	98	+1.2	226/338/346	120	294	12	19	24%	12%	96	+0.9
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	44→54	48→50	47→40	44	225/277/373	147	267	16	3	22%	6%	82	-0.0	217/263/349	132	268	14	2	24%	5%	71	-0.8	257/325/415	158	308	17	0	21%	8%	106	+1.5
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	47→57	46→55	47→55	44	234/286/363	129	291	13	12	24%	6%	82	+0.0	262/312/422	160	320	13	18	21%	6%	105	+1.7	272/324/442	170	325	14	20	20%	6%	113	+2.1
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→59	49→55	42→30	44	249/294/398	149	296	16	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	268/308/425	157	313	19	2	20%	5%	105	+1.7	274/316/435	161	317	20	0	20%	5%	108	+1.5
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	49→52	50→55	58→50	46	241/313/409	168	325	15	16	29%	8%	103	+1.6	243/305/404	161	309	18	9	26%	7%	99	+1.3	236/301/401	165	290	19	5	25%	7%	99	+1.1
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→48	49→60	55→45	47	243/314/397	154	308	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.4	228/301/402	174	307	20	6	31%	8%	98	+1.2	225/308/413	188	297	21	4	30%	9%	101	+1.2
●Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	45→48	49→60	46→50	47	220/300/377	156	305	15	6	31%	9%	92	+0.7	206/285/353	147	323	17	6	38%	9%	81	-0.1	222/305/421	199	281	26	11	30%	10%	104	+1.3

Gavin Fien

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps