Carter Kieboom

3B Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 221 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAAWSH	359	.265/.368/.386	7	3	70	—	.216/.298/.304
2025	27	AAALAA	402	.319/.370/.449	9	11	83	—	.266/.305/.361
2026	28	AAAPHI	429	.270/.358/.388	7	1	70	—	.229/.294/.316
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBPHI	24	.247/.308/.374	1	0	90	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	30	MLBPHI	89	.244/.303/.365	2	1	87	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2025

Bat Spd40

Speed27

xwOBA26

Barrel%18

Avg EV10

CompsChris Nelson (age 28) · C.J. Hinojosa (age 29) · Rolando Acosta (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .308 / .374

PA24

HR1

K%21

BB%8

BABIP302

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2025

CONTACT60

xAVG

100.215

POWER45

Barrel%

184.0

Avg EV

1083.6

Bat Spd

4070.3

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2726.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$3M
Totals		$3M		$0.2M	-$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	155	135	33	8	4	4	12	43	5	1	2	244	329	452	781	207	319	28	8	339	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	210	179	53	12	0	8	28	40	3	2	2	296	400	497	897	201	344	19	13	398	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	16	12	5	3	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	417	562	667	1.229	250	417	0	19	531	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	273	248	65	16	1	5	22	59	2	3	1	262	327	395	722	133	324	22	8	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	285	245	73	15	0	11	36	50	1	6	1	298	390	494	884	196	332	18	13	388	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	92	74	22	1	1	1	17	17	1	4	0	297	435	378	813	81	375	18	18	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	43	39	5	0	0	2	4	16	0	0	0	128	209	282	491	154	143	37	9	225	27	-4	+0	-3	+6	+1	-0.0
2019	21	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	494	412	125	24	3	16	68	100	9	5	2	303	413	493	906	189	362	20	14	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	122	99	20	1	0	0	17	33	5	0	1	202	347	212	559	10	299	27	14	279	75	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	249	217	45	6	0	6	25	62	5	0	0	207	304	318	622	111	258	25	10	286	75	-7	+0	-9	+2	+5	-0.9
2021	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	181	148	35	7	0	5	26	31	7	1	1	236	376	385	761	149	268	17	14	351	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	94	87	18	2	0	4	6	27	1	0	0	207	266	368	634	161	250	29	6	284	78	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2023	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	161	140	37	6	1	5	19	34	2	1	1	264	360	429	789	164	317	21	12	354	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	16	12	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	1	0	250	438	250	688		500	38	25	344	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	19	16	3	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	188	316	375	691	188	200	26	16	315	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	100	82	23	4	0	2	13	17	4	0	1	280	404	402	806	122	328	17	13	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	306	81	16	0	7	46	72	4	3	2	265	368	386	754	121	322	20	13	342	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	370	118	17	2	9	30	76	0	11	1	319	370	449	819	130	380	19	7	364	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	374	101	21	1	7	46	78	5	1	1	270	358	388	745	118	321	18	11	336	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	508	442	88	9	0	12	52	138	11	0	1	199	299	301	600	102	258	27	10	279	75	-15	-0	-12	+9	+11	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	155	140	23	5	3	3	7	62	5	1	2	164	230	307	537	143	244	40	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	210	192	49	9	0	7	15	53	3	2	2	255	319	411	731	156	319	25	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	16	13	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	308	438	462	899	154	315	0	12	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	273	254	60	14	1	4	16	73	2	3	1	236	287	346	633	110	309	27	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	285	258	69	13	0	10	23	71	1	6	1	267	330	434	764	167	318	25	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	43	40	5	0	0	2	3	16	0	0	0	125	186	275	461	150	143	37	7	209	27	-4	+0	-3	+6	+1	-0.0
2019	21	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	494	430	108	19	2	13	50	135	9	5	2	251	342	395	737	144	325	27	10	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	122	99	20	1	0	0	17	33	5	0	1	202	347	212	559	10	299	27	14	279	75	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	249	219	45	6	0	6	23	62	5	0	0	205	296	315	611	110	258	25	9	280	75	-7	+0	-9	+2	+5	-0.9
2021	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	181	156	33	6	0	4	18	38	7	1	1	212	320	327	647	115	256	21	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	94	87	18	2	0	4	6	27	1	0	0	207	266	368	634	161	250	29	6	283	78	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2023	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	161	145	31	4	1	3	14	42	2	1	1	214	292	317	609	103	281	26	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	16	13	3	0	0	0	3	7	0	1	0	231	375	231	606		473	44	19	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	19	17	3	0	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	176	263	353	616	176	171	37	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	319	69	13	0	5	33	90	4	3	2	216	298	304	602	88	278	25	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	379	101	14	2	6	21	93	0	11	1	266	305	361	666	95	333	23	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	389	89	17	1	5	31	94	5	1	1	229	294	316	610	87	280	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	155	140	23	5	3	3	7	62	5	1	2	164	230	307	537	143	256	40	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	155	135	33	8	4	4	12	43	5	1	2	244	329	452	781	207	319	28	8	339	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	226	205	54	12	0	7	17	53	4	2	2	263	332	424	756	161	324	23	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	226	191	58	15	0	8	31	40	4	2	2	304	412	508	919	204	350	18	14	408	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	650	597	148	30	1	16	45	168	4	13	2	248	305	382	687	134	317	26	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	650	567	160	32	2	17	75	126	4	13	2	282	370	436	806	153	334	19	12	359	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	537	470	113	19	2	15	53	151	9	5	2	240	329	385	714	145	317	28	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	537	451	130	24	3	18	72	116	9	5	2	288	397	475	871	186	348	22	13	385	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	122	99	20	1	0	0	17	33	5	0	1	202	347	212	559	10	299	27	14	279	75	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2020	22	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	122	99	20	1	0	0	17	33	5	0	1	202	347	212	559	10	299	27	14	279	75	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	375	78	12	0	10	41	100	12	1	1	208	306	320	626	112	255	23	10	286	80	-10	-0	-9	+2	+9	-0.9
2021	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	430	365	80	13	0	11	51	93	12	1	1	219	334	345	679	126	262	22	12	313	80	-10	-0	-9	+2	+9	-0.9
2023	25	AAA MLE	5 teams	—	390	349	73	8	1	11	33	111	7	2	2	209	290	332	623	123	272	28	8	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	5 teams	—	390	337	84	12	1	12	45	89	7	2	2	249	350	398	747	148	304	23	12	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	319	69	13	0	5	33	90	4	3	2	216	298	304	602	88	282	25	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	306	81	16	0	7	46	72	4	3	2	265	368	386	754	121	322	20	13	342	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	379	101	14	2	6	21	93	0	11	1	266	305	361	666	95	337	23	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	370	118	17	2	9	30	76	0	11	1	319	370	449	819	130	380	19	7	364	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	389	89	17	1	5	31	94	5	1	1	229	294	316	610	87	286	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	374	101	21	1	7	46	78	5	1	1	270	358	388	745	118	321	18	11	336	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	155	142	23	5	3	3	7	62	5	1	2	162	230	303	533	141	244	40	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	226	203	54	12	0	7	17	53	4	2	2	266	332	429	760	163	319	23	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	650	596	148	30	1	16	45	168	4	13	2	248	305	383	688	134	314	26	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	537	470	113	19	2	15	53	151	9	5	2	240	329	385	714	145	310	28	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	122	99	20	1	0	0	17	33	5	0	1	202	347	212	559	10	299	27	14	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	374	78	12	0	10	41	100	12	1	1	209	306	321	627	112	257	23	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	5 teams	—	390	347	73	8	1	11	33	111	7	2	2	210	290	334	625	124	274	28	8	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	319	69	13	0	5	33	90	4	3	2	216	298	304	602	88	278	25	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	378	101	14	2	6	21	93	0	11	1	267	305	362	667	95	333	23	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	390	89	17	1	5	31	94	5	1	1	228	294	315	610	87	280	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	359	319	69	13	0	5	33	90	4	3	2	216	298	304	602	88	278	25	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	402	378	101	14	2	6	21	93	0	11	1	267	305	362	667	95	333	23	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	429	390	89	17	1	5	31	94	5	1	1	228	294	315	610	87	280	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	10%	380	347	85	15	1	8	27	86	3	4	1	246	306	368	675	123	301	23	7	302	90	-4	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	24	22	6	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	247	308	374	682	127	302	21	8	305	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	33%	272	249	61	11	1	6	19	62	2	2	1	242	302	360	662	118	299	23	7	297	87	-4	+0	-3	+1	+6	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	33%	89	82	19	3	0	2	6	20	1	1	0	244	303	365	669	122	299	22	7	299	87	-1	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	597	524	107	12	0	14	58	158	12	1	1	204	298	307	605	103	262	26	10	282	83	-17	-0	-13	+9	+13	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	116	13	0	15	63	172	13	1	1	203	297	305	601	102	261	26	10	282	83	-18	-0	-15	+10	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4210	3788	882	151	12	89	334	1071	59	44	18	233	305	350	654	117	299	25	8	291	83	-22	-0	-17	+11	+22	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	136	23	2	14	52	165	9	7	3	232	305	350	655	118	298	25	8	291	83	-14	-0	-11	+7	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 429 PAwOBA .330 → .271 (−59)K% 18.2% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.72%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.27%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.08%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.987	×0.982	21.92%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.987	×0.982	5.71%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.987	×0.982	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .330 → .271; ISO .118 → .090; BABIP .321 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 402 PAwOBA .355 → .291 (−64)K% 18.9% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.91%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.61%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.014	×0.992	27.39%
Doubles /BIP	5.78%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.014	×0.992	4.80%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.079	×0.970	×1.014	×0.992	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	3.06%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .355 → .291; ISO .130 → .097; BABIP .380 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 359 PAwOBA .336 → .271 (−65)K% 20.1% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.06%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	25.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.81%	÷0.969	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.15%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.05%
Singles /BIP	24.79%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.971	×1.003	21.81%
Doubles /BIP	6.84%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.971	×1.003	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.971	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷0.986	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .336 → .271; ISO .121 → .092; BABIP .322 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 161 PAwOBA .345 → .276 (−69)K% 21.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.12%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	25.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.80%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.67%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.19%
Singles /BIP	23.58%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.990	×1.018	22.20%
Doubles /BIP	5.66%	÷1.137	×0.830	×0.990	×1.018	4.16%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.990	×1.018	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .345 → .276; ISO .164 → .113; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 19 PAwOBA .307 → .233 (−74)K% 26.3% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.973	×1.310	—	—	35.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.005	×0.600	—	×0.968	9.13%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.968	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.981	×0.870	—	×0.968	15.61%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.894	×0.780	—	×0.968	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.913	×0.850	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.913	×0.880	—	×0.968	8.48%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .307 → .233; ISO .188 → .167; BABIP .200 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 16 PAwOBA .338 → .273 (−64)K% 37.5% → 45.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.50%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	45.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.988	17.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.013	×0.970	—	×0.988	47.31%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.033	×0.860	—	×0.988	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.935	×0.950	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.115	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .273; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .473. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 181 PAwOBA .342 → .295 (−48)K% 17.1% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.13%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.36%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.24%
HBP% /PA	3.87%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	3.81%
Singles /BIP	19.66%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.015	×1.048	19.56%
Doubles /BIP	5.98%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.015	×1.048	5.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.015	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.27%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.24%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .342 → .295; ISO .149 → .119; BABIP .268 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 494 PAwOBA .392 → .326 (−66)K% 20.2% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.24%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	27.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.56%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.050	10.21%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.87%
Singles /BIP	26.28%	÷0.959	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	24.59%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.976	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	6.37%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.140	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷0.962	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.37%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .392 → .326; ISO .189 → .151; BABIP .362 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.9	578	12	1	215	304	317	+2	-7	0.3	0.3
/162	664	14	1	+2.4	-8.5	0.3	pk7: 0
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#3Steve Jeltz'83-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,041 PA	3.1	2,041	5	18	209*	308*	287*	+19	-7	-0.9	-0.5
/162	664	2	6	+6.1	-2.1	-0.3	pk7: -0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0
#6Rick Auerbach'71-'81 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	9	36	223*	289*	322*	+15	-36	-3.6	-1.5
/162	664	4	15	+6.3	-15.2	-1.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Kieboom (OGILVIE)	29	60	45	50	40	244/304/365	122	301	5	3	23%	7%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Nelson 2014 · MLB	28	52→57	46→50	49→50	42	254/295/387	133	318	13	8	24%	5%	91	+0.7	222/271/319	97	277	9	5	22%	6%	67	-1.1	206/255/281	75	255	6	2	21%	5%	50	-1.2
✕C.J. Hinojosa 2023 · AAA	29	49→57	45	47→45	43	242/285/369	127	289	12	8	21%	5%	84	+0.1	212/255/311	99	257	9	8	21%	5%	59	-1.7	194/233/272	78	234	7	5	20%	4%	39	-2.0
✕Rolando Acosta 2012 · AAA	29	52→60	47→50	45	43	258/301/402	144	292	13	9	17%	4%	97	+1.1	254/301/377	123	293	12	9	17%	5%	91	+0.7	261/310/366	105	302	11	8	17%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Christian Arroyo 2023 · MLB	28	50→58	47→50	50→45	43	252/299/391	139	293	15	9	20%	5%	94	+0.9	224/270/335	111	280	10	7	23%	5%	70	-0.8	221/270/322	101	280	10	8	24%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Kevin Plawecki 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	46→45	46→30	49	249/320/387	138	293	13	5	19%	8%	101	+1.4	248/310/353	105	293	9	4	18%	7%	89	+0.5	238/300/320	82	288	6	0	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Mike Cervenak 2006 · AAA	29	51→58	48→45	52→40	46	256/303/398	142	278	16	7	15%	5%	97	+1.1	246/278/370	124	277	13	4	16%	3%	81	-0.1	256/299/370	115	282	13	3	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2007 · AAA	29	53→56	45	43→50	45	257/313/385	129	322	11	9	23%	7%	98	+1.2	253/309/372	119	307	11	9	20%	7%	93	+0.8	254/310/366	112	300	12	7	19%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Ed Lucas 2011 · AAA	29	49→55	45	52→50	49	243/308/366	123	296	13	13	22%	8%	91	+0.7	221/274/330	109	281	11	7	25%	6%	71	-0.8	250/299/321	71	322	5	3	23%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Andy Green 2006 · MLB	29	52→55	48→50	48→45	51	256/319/412	156	292	13	8	17%	8%	106	+1.8	231/301/361	130	273	12	8	19%	8%	88	+0.4	206/277/308	103	245	10	6	20%	8%	65	-0.6
✕P.J. Higgins 2023 · MLB	30	51→54	46→45	49→40	50	249/324/388	139	320	13	5	25%	9%	103	+1.5	227/282/338	111	299	10	3	26%	7%	75	-0.5	212/261/304	93	278	9	0	26%	5%	57	-1.4
✕Adam Heether 2010 · AAA	28	48→57	47→50	48→45	49	235/312/376	142	293	14	8	24%	8%	96	+1.0	202/286/322	120	246	13	9	23%	8%	75	-0.5	179/266/281	102	214	12	8	22%	8%	56	-1.2
✕Jamie Westbrook 2024 · AAA	29	48→54	47→50	42→45	50	241/312/371	130	279	15	5	19%	8%	95	+0.9	234/300/356	122	281	12	5	20%	7%	87	+0.4	228/295/342	115	275	10	2	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Angel Berroa 2006 · MLB	29	54→56	44→50	49→50	42	264/304/385	121	300	11	11	16%	4%	95	+0.9	241/280/350	109	276	11	6	17%	4%	77	-0.3	244/286/384	140	291	15	5	21%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Rodney Nye 2006 · AAA	29	51→53	43→45	45	46	247/294/363	117	289	11	8	19%	6%	85	+0.2	227/279/334	107	289	9	7	24%	6%	73	-0.6	210/262/296	86	276	6	2	25%	6%	57	-1.0
✕Luis Juarez 2019 · AAA	29	52→57	44→45	45→40	47	253/295/371	117	273	12	6	13%	5%	87	+0.4	260/315/401	141	278	16	6	13%	7%	102	+1.5	274/331/415	141	287	16	1	11%	7%	112	+1.5
✕Jordy Mercer 2015 · MLB	28	51→57	46→50	45	44	254/295/388	134	289	13	6	17%	5%	91	+0.7	246/294/364	118	280	12	4	16%	6%	86	+0.3	247/303/379	132	280	13	1	16%	7%	93	+0.7
✕Ronnier Mustelier 2014 · AAA	29	53→59	45	46→50	45	260/300/385	124	294	12	9	16%	5%	93	+0.8	260/304/367	107	294	10	12	15%	5%	89	+0.5	272/316/368	96	296	8	7	11%	5%	92	+0.5
✕David Freitas 2019 · MLB	30	52→60	43→45	48→40	46	251/304/367	115	305	9	3	20%	6%	90	+0.6	261/325/388	127	315	13	4	20%	8%	103	+1.5	257/318/373	116	309	13	0	20%	7%	95	+0.3
✕Matt Reynolds 2021 · AAA	30	47→57	47→45	50	48	229/304/377	148	302	13	9	27%	9%	93	+0.8	222/292/334	112	315	9	9	30%	9%	78	-0.3	213/283/331	117	302	10	8	31%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Elias Díaz 2019 · MLB	28	52→59	45→50	45	47	257/301/379	123	290	14	5	17%	6%	91	+0.7	247/301/371	124	283	14	3	17%	7%	90	+0.6	236/292/382	147	273	17	0	20%	7%	91	+0.5

Carter Kieboom

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps