Christian Arroyo

2B Syracuse Mets

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 220 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/ROKMIL	153	.222/.305/.326	2	1	41	—	.179/.245/.244
2025	30	AAA/APHI	207	.301/.369/.457	5	1	77	—	.246/.296/.366
2026	31	AAANYM	261	.278/.335/.435	8	8	68	—	.235/.276/.342
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBNYM	17	.242/.291/.366	0	0	89	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	33	MLBNYM	49	.234/.283/.350	1	0	82	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed55

Bat Spd55

xwOBA48

Barrel%34

Avg EV28

CompsKevan Smith (age 32) · Adonis García (age 32) · Austin Romine (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .291 / .366

PA17

HR0

K%24

BB%6

BABIP293

ISO62

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT60

xAVG

570.257

POWER50

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

5527.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	AZL Giants	—	209	184	60	18	5	2	19	32	2	3	2	326	395	511	906	185	377	15	9	391	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	125	118	24	3	1	1	4	22	0	1	2	203	230	271	501	68	237	18	3	220	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	San Jose Giants	—	409	381	116	28	2	9	19	73	5	5	3	304	346	459	805	155	355	18	5	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	86	78	24	3	1	3	4	14	3	1	0	308	365	487	852	179	339	16	5	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	517	474	130	36	1	3	29	72	3	1	1	274	320	373	694	99	313	14	6	306	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	135	125	24	5	0	3	8	32	1	1	2	192	246	304	550	112	231	24	6	248	54	-7	-1	-1	+1	+3	-0.6
2017	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	102	91	36	7	0	4	6	12	5	2	0	396	461	604	1.065	209	427	12	6	469	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	59	53	14	2	1	1	6	16	0	0	0	264	339	396	735	132	361	27	10	330	108	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.3
2018	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	182	170	40	12	0	2	8	32	4	2	3	235	286	341	627	106	279	18	4	284	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	57	50	11	2	0	2	5	18	1	0	0	220	304	380	684	160	300	32	9	303	92	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2019	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	134	121	38	9	1	8	12	26	1	1	0	314	381	603	984	289	345	19	9	426	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	54	50	12	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	0	240	296	440	736	200	250	20	7	325	105	+0	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.0
2021	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	181	164	43	12	0	6	8	44	7	1	0	262	322	445	767	183	325	24	4	338	109	+2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.8
2021	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	38	33	3	1	0	0	2	12	2	1	0	91	189	121	310	30	136	32	5	157	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	300	280	80	16	1	6	13	49	3	5	1	286	324	414	739	129	326	16	4	325	97	-1	+1	-5	+1	+6	0.3
2023	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	206	195	47	16	0	3	7	45	1	1	3	241	271	369	640	128	295	22	3	280	68	-8	-1	-2	+1	+4	-0.5
2023	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	71	65	9	2	0	0	6	12	0	1	0	138	211	169	380	31	170	17	8	184	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	128	114	27	8	0	2	9	32	3	1	1	237	310	360	669	123	305	25	7	299	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	25	21	3	0	0	0	2	7	2	0	0	143	280	143	423		214	28	8	223	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	190	169	53	14	0	5	16	37	4	1	0	314	386	485	871	172	375	19	8	386	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		214	18	0	160	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	261	237	66	13	0	8	18	44	2	8	0	278	335	435	769	156	309	17	7	338	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	992	917	231	54	2	24	51	215	13	8	6	252	300	394	694	142	303	22	5	307	94	-7	-1	-8	+5	+21	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	209	192	49	13	4	2	11	46	2	3	2	255	302	396	698	141	308	22	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	125	119	23	3	1	1	3	28	0	1	2	193	213	261	474	67	227	22	2	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	409	387	105	22	1	8	13	99	5	5	3	271	304	395	699	124	340	24	3	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	517	486	136	35	1	3	17	90	3	1	1	280	308	374	683	95	322	17	3	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	135	126	24	5	0	3	7	32	1	1	2	190	239	302	540	111	231	24	5	248	54	-7	-1	-1	+1	+3	-0.6
2017	22	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	102	93	33	6	0	4	4	16	5	2	0	355	412	548	960	194	400	16	4	414	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	59	53	14	2	1	1	6	16	0	0	0	264	339	396	735	132	361	27	10	328	108	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.3
2018	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	182	173	37	10	0	2	5	37	4	2	3	214	253	306	559	92	260	20	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	57	50	11	2	0	2	5	18	1	0	0	220	304	380	684	160	300	32	9	304	92	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2019	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	134	124	35	8	1	6	9	31	1	1	0	282	336	508	844	226	336	23	7	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	54	50	12	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	0	240	296	440	736	200	250	20	7	323	105	+0	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	181	165	42	11	0	6	8	44	7	1	0	255	317	430	747	176	325	24	4	329	109	+2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.8
2021	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	38	34	3	1	0	0	1	14	2	1	0	88	162	118	280	29	127	37	3	137	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	300	282	77	14	1	6	11	49	3	5	1	273	307	394	701	121	326	16	4	312	97	-1	+1	-5	+1	+6	0.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	206	195	45	14	0	3	7	45	1	1	3	231	261	349	610	118	295	22	3	268	68	-8	-1	-2	+1	+4	-0.5
2023	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	71	67	8	1	0	0	4	14	0	1	0	119	169	134	303	15	147	20	6	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	128	117	23	6	0	1	6	39	3	1	1	197	254	274	527	77	275	30	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	25	22	2	0	0	0	1	10	2	0	0	91	200	91	291		163	40	4	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	190	175	45	11	0	4	10	45	4	1	0	257	312	389	701	131	312	24	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	17	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	118	118	118	235		180	24	0	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	261	243	57	11	0	5	12	53	2	8	0	235	276	342	618	107	267	20	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	209	192	49	13	4	2	11	46	2	3	2	255	302	396	698	141	318	22	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	—	209	184	60	18	5	2	19	32	2	3	2	326	395	511	906	185	377	15	9	391	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	125	119	23	3	1	1	3	28	0	1	2	193	213	261	474	67	239	22	2	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	125	118	24	3	1	1	4	22	0	1	2	203	230	271	501	68	237	18	3	220	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	466	128	27	2	10	16	120	8	6	3	275	310	406	716	131	348	24	3	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	495	459	140	31	3	12	23	87	8	6	3	305	349	464	813	159	353	18	5	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	517	486	136	35	1	3	17	90	3	1	1	280	308	374	683	95	333	17	3	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	517	474	130	36	1	3	29	72	3	1	1	274	320	373	694	99	313	14	6	306	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	219	58	11	0	7	11	48	6	3	2	265	318	411	729	146	309	20	5	319	102	+1	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.5
2017	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	237	216	60	12	0	7	14	44	6	3	2	278	339	431	770	153	319	19	6	343	102	+1	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.5
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	226	51	12	1	3	11	53	4	2	3	226	274	327	601	102	282	22	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	241	223	54	14	1	3	14	48	4	2	3	242	299	354	653	112	297	20	6	295	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	191	174	46	10	1	8	14	49	2	1	0	264	326	471	798	207	325	26	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	191	171	49	11	1	10	17	44	2	1	0	287	358	538	896	251	333	23	9	389	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	54	50	12	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	0	240	296	440	736	200	250	20	7	323	105	+0	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	54	50	12	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	0	240	296	440	736	200	250	20	7	325	105	+0	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	219	199	45	12	0	6	9	58	9	2	0	226	290	377	667	151	287	26	4	296	86	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	219	197	46	13	0	6	10	56	9	2	0	234	300	391	690	157	294	26	5	307	86	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	300	282	77	14	1	6	11	49	3	5	1	273	307	394	701	121	310	16	4	312	97	-1	+1	-5	+1	+6	0.3
2022	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	300	280	80	16	1	6	13	49	3	5	1	286	324	414	739	129	326	16	4	325	97	-1	+1	-5	+1	+6	0.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	277	262	52	15	0	3	11	59	1	2	3	198	234	290	524	92	243	21	4	236	46	-18	-1	-2	+1	+6	-1.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	277	260	56	18	0	3	13	57	1	2	3	215	255	319	575	104	262	21	5	256	46	-18	-1	-2	+1	+6	-1.4
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	139	25	6	0	1	7	49	5	1	1	180	245	245	490	65	264	32	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	153	135	30	8	0	2	11	39	5	1	1	222	305	326	631	104	292	25	7	287	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	192	47	11	0	4	10	48	4	1	0	245	296	365	661	120	305	23	5	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	207	186	56	14	0	5	16	40	4	1	0	301	369	457	826	156	359	19	8	367	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	261	243	57	11	0	5	12	53	2	8	0	235	276	342	618	107	277	20	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	261	237	66	13	0	8	18	44	2	8	0	278	335	435	769	156	309	17	7	338	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	209	194	49	13	4	2	11	46	2	3	2	253	302	392	694	139	308	22	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	125	121	23	3	1	1	3	28	0	1	2	190	213	256	469	66	227	22	2	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	468	128	27	2	10	16	120	8	6	3	274	310	404	714	130	340	24	3	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	517	492	136	35	1	3	17	90	3	1	1	276	308	370	678	93	322	17	3	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	218	58	11	0	7	11	48	6	3	2	266	318	413	731	147	304	20	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	224	51	12	1	3	11	53	4	2	3	228	274	330	604	103	285	22	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	191	173	46	10	1	8	14	49	2	1	0	266	326	474	800	208	325	26	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	54	50	12	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	0	240	296	440	736	200	250	20	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	219	199	45	12	0	6	9	58	9	2	0	226	290	377	667	151	290	26	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	300	283	77	14	1	6	11	49	3	5	1	272	307	392	700	120	326	16	4	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	277	263	52	15	0	3	11	59	1	2	3	198	234	289	523	91	257	21	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	140	25	6	0	1	7	49	5	1	1	179	245	243	488	64	257	32	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	191	47	11	0	4	10	48	4	1	0	246	296	366	663	120	301	23	5	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	261	245	57	11	0	5	12	53	2	8	0	233	276	339	615	106	267	20	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	140	25	6	0	1	7	49	5	1	1	179	245	243	488	64	257	32	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	191	47	11	0	4	10	48	4	1	0	246	296	366	663	120	301	23	5	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	261	245	57	11	0	5	12	53	2	8	0	233	276	339	615	106	267	20	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	273	254	63	13	1	6	14	61	3	5	1	249	298	377	676	128	303	22	5	300	89	-3	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	17	16	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	242	291	366	658	125	293	24	6	293	89	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	33%	151	140	34	7	0	3	8	34	2	1	0	241	289	360	649	119	297	23	5	290	82	-3	+0	-4	+1	+3	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	33%	49	45	10	2	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	234	283	350	632	115	287	22	6	282	82	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1041	962	241	56	2	25	54	226	14	8	6	251	300	391	691	140	302	22	5	306	80	-8	-1	-9	+6	+23	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	151	35	1	16	34	141	9	5	4	251	301	393	694	141	302	22	5	306	80	-5	-0	-6	+3	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3806	3545	880	196	12	69	164	833	53	40	18	248	292	369	660	120	303	22	4	287	80	-13	+0	-12	+7	+28	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	605	150	33	2	12	28	142	9	7	3	248	291	369	659	121	303	22	4	287	80	-6	+0	-6	+3	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 261 PAwOBA .332 → .269 (−63)K% 16.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.58%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.69%
Singles /BIP	23.32%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.004	×0.962	20.95%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×0.962	5.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.004	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.15%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .332 → .269; ISO .156 → .113; BABIP .309 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 190 PAwOBA .377 → .297 (−81)K% 19.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.47%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	23.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.42%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.25%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.92%
Singles /BIP	25.76%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.955	×0.972	22.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.61%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.955	×0.972	8.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.955	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .377 → .297; ISO .172 → .126; BABIP .375 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 17 PAwOBA .155 → .123 (−33)K% 17.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.940	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×0.940	17.99%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .155 → .123; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .214 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 128 PAwOBA .296 → .245 (−51)K% 25.0% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	30.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.03%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.70%
HBP% /PA	2.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.16%
Singles /BIP	20.73%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.995	×0.982	19.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.010	×0.830	×0.995	×0.982	7.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.995	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .296 → .245; ISO .123 → .094; BABIP .305 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Brewers · 25 PAwOBA .219 → .142 (−76)K% 28.0% → 40.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.00%	÷1.002	×1.440	—	—	40.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.014	×0.620	—	×0.940	4.60%
HBP% /PA	8.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.41%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.015	×0.820	—	×0.940	16.28%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.088	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .219 → .142; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .214 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 71 PAwOBA .180 → .143 (−37)K% 16.9% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.90%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.21%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.009	×0.992	12.34%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.309	×0.830	×1.009	×0.992	2.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.905	×0.970	×1.009	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .180 → .143; ISO .031 → .019; BABIP .170 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 38 PAwOBA .158 → .137 (−21)K% 31.6% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.58%	÷1.021	×1.200	—	—	37.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.67%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	5.04%
Singles /BIP	9.52%	÷0.974	×0.930	—	×1.018	9.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×1.018	4.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.318	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .158 → .137; ISO .030 → .025; BABIP .136 → .127. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 134 PAwOBA .413 → .363 (−51)K% 19.4% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.40%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.96%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.49%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.74%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.986	×0.930	×1.045	×1.048	21.74%
Doubles /BIP	9.47%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.045	×1.048	8.56%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.025	×0.970	×1.045	×1.048	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	8.42%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×1.048	6.57%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .413 → .363; ISO .289 → .236; BABIP .345 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Tyler Houston'96-'03 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,946 PA	2.9	1,946	63	10	254*	298*	410*	+10	-14	3.3	3.5
/162	664	21	3	+3.4	-4.6	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ramon Martinez'98-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,206 PA	3.3	2,206	29	10	252*	308*	353*	+12	-5	1.9	2.8
/162	664	9	3	+3.6	-1.4	0.6	pk7: 4
#4Greg Dobbslast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,201 PA	3.3	2,201	46	14	262	307	388	-1	-26	2.0	2.8
/162	664	14	4	-0.4	-7.7	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	1.6	1,058	25	9	252	297	392	+4	-7	2.3	2.6
/162	664	16	6	+2.4	-4.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Dave Berg'98-'04 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,781 PA	2.7	1,781	21	8	258*	316*	360*	+4	-9	1.3	1.3
/162	664	8	3	+1.3	-3.4	0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Arroyo (OGILVIE)	32	60	50	45	40	247/296/374	127	303	4	3	22%	5%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→54	44→50	49→40	48	259/314/378	119	292	12	5	16%	6%	97	+1.1	229/296/348	119	289	11	7	23%	8%	83	+0.1	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Adonis García 2017 · MLB	32	53→54	48→50	45→50	42	264/295/401	137	294	16	6	17%	3%	95	+0.9	240/282/366	126	271	15	11	17%	4%	82	-0.0	207/253/301	95	236	12	15	18%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	48→50	45	40	252/290/391	139	319	16	5	26%	5%	91	+0.6	221/261/335	114	301	13	5	30%	5%	67	-1.1	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Kevin Plawecki 2023 · MLB	32	51→59	41→45	47→30	50	246/311/346	100	286	9	4	17%	7%	88	+0.4	226/285/335	109	270	11	3	20%	7%	76	-0.4	215/272/316	101	256	10	0	20%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	52→45	48→55	42→40	43	260/302/402	142	313	15	6	22%	6%	97	+1.1	251/295/414	163	307	18	4	23%	6%	98	+1.2	243/288/414	171	299	19	1	25%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Rolando Acosta 2015 · AAA	32	53→60	44→50	43→45	46	257/308/370	113	295	12	8	17%	5%	93	+0.8	224/284/317	93	261	9	7	17%	6%	72	-0.7	208/270/282	74	242	7	4	17%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Gabe Kapler 2006 · MLB	31	54→60	46→55	47→55	46	268/312/402	134	302	13	10	16%	5%	101	+1.4	260/319/402	142	290	14	8	15%	7%	103	+1.6	262/330/432	170	288	17	8	15%	9%	115	+0.9
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Miguel Cairo 2005 · MLB	31	54→58	44→45	52→55	47	259/312/382	123	282	10	12	13%	5%	97	+1.1	244/293/336	92	271	5	21	12%	5%	78	-0.3	247/304/364	118	270	11	10	13%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Ronny Cedeno 2015 · MLB	32	50→60	40→45	45→50	43	241/285/337	97	300	8	10	22%	5%	76	-0.4	219/261/313	94	268	8	8	21%	5%	61	-1.5	196/228/265	69	238	4	3	19%	3%	35	-1.7
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Austin Wynns 2023 · MLB	32	51	45	48→40	50	251/319/369	117	301	13	5	21%	8%	97	+1.1	234/291/359	125	301	13	5	26%	7%	84	+0.1	220/267/354	134	290	15	1	29%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Gorkys Hernández 2019 · MLB	31	50→60	46→45	47→55	46	247/302/376	129	302	13	14	23%	7%	91	+0.7	206/274/339	133	282	15	16	31%	8%	73	-0.6	172/247/289	117	244	13	19	34%	8%	51	-2.1
✕Jantzen Witte 2023 · AAA	33	50→54	49→45	46→45	45	251/299/392	141	297	17	7	22%	6%	94	+0.9	211/267/348	137	276	15	8	28%	7%	72	-0.7	191/248/324	133	248	15	6	29%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Gerald Laird 2013 · MLB	33	51→47	43→50	46→50	50	246/302/357	112	276	10	5	15%	7%	87	+0.4	241/309/338	97	286	7	6	17%	8%	85	+0.2	231/306/298	66	286	2	2	18%	8%	76	-0.1
✕P.J. Higgins 2024 · MLB	31	50→54	45	49→40	47	245/310/374	129	313	13	4	25%	8%	94	+0.9	212/262/303	91	278	8	2	25%	6%	59	-1.6	196/245/268	72	256	6	0	25%	5%	43	-2.0
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2009 · MLB	31	53→56	44→45	41→50	48	259/315/376	117	309	11	8	20%	7%	96	+1.0	246/303/370	124	294	13	8	20%	7%	91	+0.6	238/287/346	108	284	11	12	20%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Phil Gosselin 2022 · MLB	33	52→62	45	45	47	254/312/375	121	312	12	7	22%	7%	95	+1.0	235/287/351	116	300	11	9	24%	6%	80	-0.1	217/262/317	100	285	7	7	26%	4%	61	-0.7
✕Diory Hernandez 2016 · AAA	32	50→60	41→45	42→50	47	242/298/342	100	274	9	6	15%	6%	82	-0.0	241/290/370	129	266	14	9	15%	6%	86	+0.3	240/288/369	129	260	15	8	14%	6%	83	+0.0

Christian Arroyo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps