Chris Nelson

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1985-09-03

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	28	AAASD	363	.279/.359/.389	6	0	67	—	.227/.287/.311
2014	28	MLBSD	81	.233/.300/.274	0	1	62	-0.0
2015	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	300	.219/.284/.339	4	3	44	—	.193/.237/.296
2016	30	AAACOL	218	.232/.274/.310	3	0	22	—	.189/.223/.248
2017	31	No MLB games played
2018	32	No MLB games played
2019	33	No MLB games played
2020	34	No MLB games played
2021	35	No MLB games played
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	349	315	76	13	3	3	25	88	5	7	4	241	307	330	637	89	320	25	7	288	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A	Asheville Tourists	—	517	466	121	38	1	11	32	101	7	14	2	260	317	416	733	157	305	20	6	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	600	529	153	42	7	19	55	92	7	27	5	289	364	503	867	214	314	15	9	375	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	330	283	67	18	2	3	35	69	4	6	1	237	328	346	674	110	296	21	11	302	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	32	30	5	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	2	167	219	300	519	133	190	25	6	234	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	123	107	30	5	2	4	12	21	1	5	2	280	355	477	832	196	313	17	10	360	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	27	25	7	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	280	308	320	628	40	333	15	4	275	67	-1	+0	-3	+1	+1	-0.2
2010	24	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	356	319	100	15	3	12	29	53	4	7	3	313	378	492	870	179	344	15	8	381	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	189	180	45	10	1	4	7	35	1	3	1	250	282	383	665	133	289	19	4	294	73	-6	+0	-5	+2	+4	-0.5
2011	25	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	315	289	95	20	5	11	17	48	3	3	3	329	372	547	919	218	357	15	5	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	377	345	104	21	3	9	27	84	1	2	1	301	354	458	812	157	374	22	7	356	111	+5	+0	-10	+2	+8	0.5
2012	26	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	54	51	15	4	1	0	2	12	1	1	1	294	333	412	745	118	385	22	4	332	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	227	211	48	4	4	3	13	66	1	2	1	227	276	327	603	100	312	29	6	269	69	-8	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.3
2013	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	144	134	44	11	0	6	8	23	0	4	0	328	366	545	911	216	355	16	6	393	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	81	73	17	3	0	0	7	14	0	1	2	233	300	274	574	41	283	17	9	264	62	-4	-1	+1	+2	+2	-0.0
2014	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	319	89	15	1	6	36	68	4	0	2	279	359	389	748	110	333	19	10	336	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	237	218	51	16	1	4	18	39	0	3	0	234	292	372	664	138	267	16	8	296	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	63	56	9	3	0	0	7	11	0	0	0	161	254	214	468	54	200	17	11	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	218	203	47	5	1	3	8	32	4	0	0	232	274	310	585	79	260	15	4	262	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	901	834	221	39	8	16	55	203	3	9	5	265	313	388	701	124	330	23	6	311	96	-4	-0	-18	+8	+20	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	349	323	65	10	3	2	17	118	5	7	4	201	252	269	522	68	294	34	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	517	477	105	31	1	9	21	135	7	14	2	220	263	346	609	126	272	26	4	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	600	546	137	35	5	18	38	123	7	27	5	251	308	432	740	181	281	20	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	330	295	64	16	2	3	24	84	4	6	1	217	285	315	600	98	279	25	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	32	31	4	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	2	129	156	258	414	129	168	34	3	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	123	112	27	4	2	3	8	26	1	5	2	241	298	393	690	152	274	21	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	27	25	7	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	280	308	320	628	40	333	15	4	267	67	-1	+0	-3	+1	+1	-0.2
2010	24	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	356	328	85	12	2	10	20	70	4	7	3	259	310	399	709	140	292	20	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	189	181	44	10	1	4	6	35	1	3	1	243	271	376	647	133	289	19	3	276	73	-6	+0	-5	+2	+4	-0.5
2011	25	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	315	293	80	16	4	8	13	67	3	3	3	273	311	437	748	164	314	21	4	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	377	349	99	20	2	8	23	84	1	2	1	284	330	421	751	138	374	22	6	333	111	+5	+0	-10	+2	+8	0.5
2012	26	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	54	51	12	3	1	0	2	17	1	1	1	235	278	333	611	98	326	31	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	227	211	48	4	4	3	13	66	1	2	1	227	276	327	603	100	312	29	6	270	69	-8	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.3
2013	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	144	136	38	9	0	5	6	31	0	4	0	279	310	456	766	176	311	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	81	74	17	3	0	0	6	14	0	1	2	230	287	270	558	41	283	17	7	260	62	-4	-1	+1	+2	+2	-0.0
2014	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	331	75	11	1	5	24	87	4	0	2	227	287	311	598	85	285	24	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	237	223	43	12	1	3	13	45	0	3	0	193	237	296	533	103	228	19	5	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	218	206	39	4	1	2	5	44	4	0	0	189	223	248	471	58	221	20	2	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	349	323	65	10	3	2	17	118	5	7	4	201	252	269	522	68	304	34	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	349	315	76	13	3	3	25	88	5	7	4	241	307	330	637	89	320	25	7	288	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	517	477	105	31	1	9	21	135	7	14	2	220	263	346	609	126	282	26	4	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	517	466	121	38	1	11	32	101	7	14	2	260	317	416	733	157	305	20	6	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	600	546	137	35	5	18	38	123	7	27	5	251	308	432	740	181	287	20	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	600	529	153	42	7	19	55	92	7	27	5	289	364	503	867	214	314	15	9	375	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	362	325	68	17	2	3	26	95	4	6	3	209	276	302	578	92	280	26	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	362	313	72	19	2	4	37	77	4	6	3	230	318	342	660	112	287	21	10	296	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	123	112	27	4	2	3	8	26	1	5	2	241	298	393	690	152	286	21	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	123	107	30	5	2	4	12	21	1	5	2	280	355	477	832	196	313	17	10	360	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	353	91	13	2	10	21	74	4	8	3	258	307	391	698	133	299	19	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	383	344	107	16	3	12	30	57	4	8	3	311	373	480	853	169	343	15	8	373	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	474	123	26	4	12	19	102	4	6	4	259	294	407	701	148	303	20	4	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	504	469	140	30	6	15	24	83	4	6	4	299	338	484	822	186	332	16	5	356	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	431	400	111	23	3	8	25	101	2	3	2	278	323	410	733	132	352	23	6	321	104	+2	-0	-10	+2	+9	0.3
2012	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	431	396	119	25	4	9	29	96	2	3	2	301	351	452	803	152	375	22	7	353	104	+2	-0	-10	+2	+9	0.3
2013	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	371	347	86	13	4	8	19	97	1	6	1	248	289	378	666	130	317	26	5	289	82	-8	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.2
2013	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	371	345	92	15	4	9	21	89	1	6	1	267	311	412	722	145	331	24	6	317	82	-8	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.2
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	444	405	92	14	1	5	30	101	4	1	4	227	287	304	591	77	286	23	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	444	392	106	18	1	6	43	82	4	1	4	270	349	367	716	97	324	18	10	323	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	300	283	54	15	1	3	16	57	0	3	0	191	234	283	517	92	228	19	5	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	300	274	60	19	1	4	25	50	0	3	0	219	284	339	624	120	253	17	8	281	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	218	206	39	4	1	2	5	44	4	0	0	189	223	248	471	58	230	20	2	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	218	203	47	5	1	3	8	32	4	0	0	232	274	310	585	79	260	15	4	262	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	349	324	65	10	3	2	17	118	5	7	4	201	252	269	521	68	294	34	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	517	484	105	31	1	9	21	135	7	14	2	217	263	341	604	124	272	26	4	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	600	550	137	35	5	18	38	123	7	27	5	249	308	429	737	180	281	20	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	362	329	68	17	2	3	26	95	4	6	3	207	276	298	574	91	269	26	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	123	113	27	4	2	3	8	26	1	5	2	239	298	389	687	150	274	21	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	355	91	13	2	10	21	74	4	8	3	256	307	389	696	132	295	19	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	476	123	26	4	12	19	102	4	6	4	258	294	405	699	147	305	20	4	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	431	401	111	23	3	8	25	101	2	3	2	277	323	409	732	132	368	23	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	371	348	86	13	4	8	19	97	1	6	1	247	289	376	665	129	312	26	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	444	407	92	14	1	5	30	101	4	1	4	226	287	302	589	76	285	23	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	300	281	54	15	1	3	16	57	0	3	0	192	234	285	519	93	228	19	5	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	218	207	39	4	1	2	5	44	4	0	0	188	223	246	470	58	221	20	2	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	901	834	221	39	8	16	55	203	3	9	5	265	313	388	701	124	330	23	6	311	75	-4	-0	-18	+8	+20	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	160	28	6	12	40	146	2	6	4	266	314	392	706	126	330	22	6	311	75	-3	-0	-13	+5	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4602	4251	998	205	29	83	245	1073	43	86	30	235	283	355	639	120	291	23	5	278	75	-4	-0	-18	+8	+20	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	141	29	4	12	35	152	6	12	4	235	284	357	641	122	291	23	5	278	75	-3	-0	-13	+5	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 218 PAwOBA .256 → .201 (−55)K% 14.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.68%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	19.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.67%	÷1.083	×0.710	—	×0.962	2.31%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	1.73%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.032	×0.900	×1.035	×0.962	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	2.92%	÷1.050	×0.810	×1.035	×0.962	2.25%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.035	×0.962	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×0.962	1.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .256 → .201; ISO .079 → .052; BABIP .260 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 237 PAwOBA .290 → .234 (−56)K% 16.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.46%	÷1.043	×1.200	—	—	18.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.59%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.43%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.76%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.018	×0.972	15.27%
Doubles /BIP	8.94%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.018	×0.972	6.75%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷0.947	×0.970	×1.018	×0.972	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	2.23%	÷1.183	×0.840	—	×0.972	1.54%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .290 → .234; ISO .138 → .103; BABIP .267 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 363 PAwOBA .329 → .267 (−62)K% 18.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.73%	÷1.002	×1.290	—	—	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.37%	÷0.970	×0.710	—	×0.982	6.73%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.06%
Singles /BIP	26.69%	÷1.018	×0.900	×1.018	×0.982	23.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.98%	÷1.068	×0.810	×1.018	×0.982	4.53%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.018	×0.982	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	2.39%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×0.982	1.91%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .329 → .267; ISO .110 → .084; BABIP .333 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAASalt Lake Bees · 144 PAwOBA .387 → .318 (−69)K% 16.0% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷0.964	×1.290	—	—	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.016	×0.710	—	×0.992	3.85%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷0.997	×0.900	×1.015	×0.992	22.11%
Doubles /BIP	9.91%	÷0.977	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	8.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷0.973	×0.780	—	×0.992	4.30%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .387 → .318; ISO .216 → .170; BABIP .355 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 54 PAwOBA .323 → .241 (−82)K% 22.2% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.898	×1.290	—	—	31.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.70%	÷0.927	×0.710	—	×1.003	2.85%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	1.82%
Singles /BIP	25.64%	÷1.006	×0.900	—	×1.003	23.00%
Doubles /BIP	10.26%	÷1.068	×0.810	—	×1.003	7.80%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.003	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.780	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 80, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .241; ISO .118 → .077; BABIP .385 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 315 PAwOBA .389 → .319 (−70)K% 15.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.24%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.40%	÷0.972	×0.710	—	×1.018	4.01%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.95%
Singles /BIP	24.48%	÷1.016	×0.900	×1.016	×1.018	22.43%
Doubles /BIP	8.30%	÷0.992	×0.810	×1.016	×1.018	7.01%
Triples /BIP	2.07%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.016	×1.018	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	4.56%	÷1.029	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.52%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 85, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .389 → .319; ISO .218 → .166; BABIP .357 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 356 PAwOBA .372 → .303 (−69)K% 14.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.89%	÷0.977	×1.290	—	—	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.87%	÷1.041	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.54%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.14%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.047	×0.900	×0.989	×1.033	23.11%
Doubles /BIP	5.64%	÷1.057	×0.810	×0.989	×1.033	4.41%
Triples /BIP	1.13%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.989	×1.033	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	4.51%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.67%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .372 → .303; ISO .179 → .140; BABIP .344 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AATulsa Drillers · 123 PAwOBA .351 → .301 (−50)K% 17.1% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.07%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.94%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.34%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.72%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.964	×1.012	19.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.964	×1.012	4.76%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.964	×1.012	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.77%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .351 → .301; ISO .196 → .169; BABIP .313 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .