Sal Stewart
1B Cincinnati Reds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+CIN | 338 | .279/.395/.454 | 8 | 10 | 93 | — | .233/.329/.360 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA/AACIN | 494 | .309/.385/.524 | 20 | 17 | 116 | — | .276/.334/.450 |
| 2025 | 21 | MLBCIN | 58 | .255/.293/.545 | 5 | 0 | 122 | -0.7 | |
| 2026 | 22 | MLBCIN | 700 | .263/.335/.457 | 32 | 15 | 111 | 1.0 | |
| 2027PROJ | 23 | MLBCIN | 614 | .263/.330/.461 | 29 | 12 | 116 | 1.5 | |
| 2028PROJ | 24 | MLBCIN | 614 | .265/.333/.466 | 30 | 12 | 118 | 1.7 | |
| 2029PROJ | 25 | MLBCIN | 614 | .265/.334/.469 | 30 | 12 | 119 | 1.8 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 28 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 393 | 458 | 851 | 167 | 368 | 18 | 14 | 380 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 131 | 110 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 291 | 400 | 391 | 791 | 100 | 330 | 14 | 14 | 361 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 387 | 316 | 85 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 66 | 59 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 269 | 398 | 424 | 822 | 155 | 300 | 15 | 17 | 371 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 280 | 78 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 279 | 395 | 454 | 849 | 175 | 320 | 17 | 15 | 376 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 58 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 293 | 545 | 839 | 291 | 257 | 26 | 5 | 362 | 122 | +1 | +0 | +1 | -10 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 165 | 143 | 45 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 315 | 399 | 629 | 1.028 | 315 | 321 | 16 | 12 | 437 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 329 | 294 | 90 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 51 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 306 | 378 | 473 | 851 | 167 | 342 | 16 | 8 | 378 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 623 | 164 | 25 | 0 | 32 | 63 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 263 | 335 | 457 | 792 | 194 | 296 | 22 | 9 | 346 | 111 | +9 | -0 | -2 | -12 | +15 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 758 | 678 | 178 | 26 | 0 | 37 | 66 | 170 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 263 | 332 | 465 | 796 | 202 | 293 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 121 | +19 | -0 | -2 | -22 | +16 | 1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 28 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 115 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 131 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 267 | 346 | 353 | 700 | 86 | 310 | 18 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 387 | 335 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 80 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 230 | 328 | 346 | 674 | 116 | 273 | 21 | 12 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 292 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 329 | 360 | 689 | 127 | 282 | 21 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 58 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 293 | 545 | 839 | 291 | 257 | 26 | 5 | 348 | 122 | +1 | +0 | +1 | -10 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 165 | 148 | 39 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 331 | 514 | 845 | 250 | 276 | 19 | 8 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 329 | 304 | 86 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 62 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 283 | 335 | 418 | 753 | 135 | 331 | 19 | 5 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 628 | 161 | 25 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 256 | 323 | 439 | 763 | 183 | 296 | 22 | 8 | 333 | 111 | +9 | -0 | -2 | -12 | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 28 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 115 | 263 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Reds | — | 28 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 393 | 458 | 851 | 167 | 368 | 18 | 14 | 380 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 451 | 108 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 59 | 103 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 239 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 111 | 287 | 20 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 518 | 426 | 117 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 84 | 77 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 275 | 399 | 415 | 814 | 141 | 308 | 15 | 16 | 368 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 292 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 329 | 360 | 689 | 127 | 288 | 21 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 280 | 78 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 279 | 395 | 454 | 849 | 175 | 320 | 17 | 15 | 376 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 552 | 507 | 140 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 34 | 109 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 276 | 332 | 462 | 793 | 185 | 313 | 20 | 6 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 552 | 492 | 149 | 35 | 0 | 25 | 49 | 92 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 303 | 375 | 526 | 902 | 224 | 328 | 17 | 9 | 394 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 628 | 161 | 25 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 256 | 323 | 439 | 763 | 183 | 289 | 22 | 8 | 333 | 111 | +9 | -0 | -2 | -12 | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 623 | 164 | 25 | 0 | 32 | 63 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 263 | 335 | 457 | 792 | 194 | 296 | 22 | 9 | 346 | 111 | +9 | -0 | -2 | -12 | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 28 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 115 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 450 | 108 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 59 | 103 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 240 | 333 | 351 | 684 | 111 | 282 | 20 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 293 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 232 | 329 | 358 | 688 | 126 | 282 | 21 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 552 | 505 | 140 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 34 | 109 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 277 | 332 | 463 | 795 | 186 | 307 | 20 | 6 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 632 | 161 | 25 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 255 | 323 | 437 | 760 | 182 | 296 | 22 | 8 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 338 | 293 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 232 | 329 | 358 | 688 | 126 | 282 | 21 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 552 | 505 | 140 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 34 | 109 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 277 | 332 | 463 | 795 | 186 | 307 | 20 | 6 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 700 | 632 | 161 | 25 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 155 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 255 | 323 | 437 | 760 | 182 | 296 | 22 | 8 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 639 | 575 | 149 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 54 | 138 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 258 | 326 | 445 | 772 | 187 | 291 | 22 | 8 | 340 | 116 | +12 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +14 | 3.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 614 | 554 | 145 | 20 | 1 | 29 | 51 | 133 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 263 | 330 | 461 | 791 | 198 | 293 | 22 | 8 | 347 | 116 | +12 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 614 | 553 | 145 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 261 | 329 | 451 | 780 | 190 | 291 | 21 | 8 | 343 | 118 | +13 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 614 | 553 | 145 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 261 | 330 | 453 | 783 | 192 | 292 | 21 | 8 | 344 | 119 | +14 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 614 | 552 | 145 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 53 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 261 | 330 | 453 | 783 | 192 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 344 | 119 | +14 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 612 | 550 | 142 | 20 | 0 | 28 | 53 | 131 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 260 | 329 | 450 | 779 | 190 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 343 | 118 | +13 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 592 | 532 | 137 | 19 | 0 | 27 | 51 | 128 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 258 | 327 | 445 | 771 | 187 | 289 | 22 | 9 | 340 | 116 | +11 | +1 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 571 | 514 | 130 | 18 | 0 | 25 | 49 | 125 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 255 | 324 | 438 | 762 | 183 | 288 | 22 | 9 | 336 | 114 | +9 | +0 | -1 | -10 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 555 | 500 | 126 | 17 | 0 | 24 | 47 | 124 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 252 | 320 | 430 | 749 | 178 | 285 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 110 | +7 | +0 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 536 | 483 | 119 | 16 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 121 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 247 | 314 | 419 | 734 | 172 | 282 | 23 | 8 | 325 | 106 | +4 | -1 | -3 | -10 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 521 | 470 | 114 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 120 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 308 | 406 | 713 | 165 | 277 | 23 | 8 | 316 | 100 | +0 | -0 | -3 | -9 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 476 | 433 | 100 | 12 | 0 | 18 | 38 | 113 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 299 | 389 | 688 | 156 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB MLE | CIN | 96% | 419 | 382 | 85 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 102 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 145 | 263 | 24 | 8 | 293 | 85 | -8 | -0 | -5 | -7 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 614 | 553 | 146 | 20 | 1 | 30 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 265 | 333 | 466 | 799 | 202 | 293 | 21 | 8 | 351 | 118 | +13 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 614 | 553 | 146 | 20 | 1 | 30 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 265 | 334 | 469 | 803 | 203 | 294 | 21 | 8 | 352 | 119 | +14 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 614 | 552 | 146 | 20 | 1 | 30 | 53 | 131 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 265 | 334 | 469 | 802 | 203 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 352 | 119 | +14 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 612 | 550 | 145 | 20 | 0 | 30 | 53 | 131 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 264 | 333 | 466 | 798 | 202 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 350 | 118 | +13 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 592 | 532 | 139 | 19 | 0 | 29 | 51 | 128 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 262 | 331 | 460 | 791 | 198 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 347 | 116 | +11 | +1 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 571 | 514 | 133 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 49 | 125 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 259 | 327 | 453 | 781 | 194 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 343 | 114 | +9 | +0 | -1 | -10 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 555 | 500 | 128 | 17 | 0 | 26 | 47 | 124 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 323 | 445 | 768 | 189 | 287 | 22 | 8 | 338 | 110 | +7 | +0 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 536 | 483 | 121 | 16 | 0 | 24 | 45 | 121 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 251 | 318 | 434 | 752 | 183 | 284 | 23 | 8 | 332 | 106 | +4 | -1 | -3 | -10 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 521 | 470 | 116 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 43 | 120 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 311 | 420 | 731 | 175 | 279 | 23 | 8 | 323 | 100 | +0 | -0 | -3 | -9 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 476 | 433 | 102 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 38 | 113 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 302 | 402 | 705 | 165 | 273 | 24 | 8 | 313 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB CTX | CIN | 96% | 400 | 364 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 382 | 673 | 154 | 264 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -5 | -7 | +9 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 6863 | 6182 | 1583 | 212 | 3 | 322 | 581 | 1523 | 39 | 82 | 36 | 256 | 324 | 448 | 771 | 192 | 288 | 22 | 8 | 339 | 109 | +94 | +2 | -19 | -131 | +149 | 9.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 149 | 20 | 0 | 30 | 55 | 144 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 254 | 323 | 442 | 765 | 188 | 286 | 22 | 8 | 339 | 109 | +9 | +0 | -2 | -12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 8874 | 7980 | 2014 | 310 | 5 | 357 | 758 | 1936 | 59 | 136 | 50 | 252 | 322 | 427 | 749 | 174 | 289 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 109 | +106 | +2 | -19 | -143 | +162 | 11.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 147 | 23 | 0 | 26 | 56 | 142 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 251 | 321 | 424 | 745 | 173 | 287 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 109 | +9 | +0 | -2 | -12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 329 PAwOBA .369 → .329 (−40)K% 15.5% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.50% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.10% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 25.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.36% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .369 → .329; ISO .167 → .140; BABIP .342 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 165 PAwOBA .430 → .360 (−71)K% 15.8% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.76% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.09% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.963 | ×1.050 | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.82% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.050 | 10.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.55% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .430 → .360; ISO .315 → .263; BABIP .321 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 338 PAwOBA .372 → .306 (−66)K% 16.9% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.86% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.79% | ÷0.976 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 11.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.31% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 8.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.030 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷1.285 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.29% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .372 → .306; ISO .175 → .134; BABIP .320 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 387 PAwOBA .364 → .301 (−63)K% 15.2% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.25% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.05% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.39% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.02% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .364 → .301; ISO .155 → .123; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 131 PAwOBA .352 → .311 (−41)K% 13.7% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.74% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 17.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.98% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 9.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 26.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .352 → .311; ISO .100 → .086; BABIP .330 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 28 PAwOBA .371 → .255 (−116)K% 17.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 12.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 14.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .371 → .255; ISO .167 → .113; BABIP .368 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).