Leo Bernal — OGILVIE

Leo BernalC Memphis Redbirds

Age 22 S/R 6'0" / 245 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION310 act + 206 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .298 / .364

PA206

HR5

K%24

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO134

MLB%40%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$12M	+$10M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$12M	+$7M
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+2.0	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$24M		$71M	+$57M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	165	25	6	1	4	10	37	3	3	1	152	213	273	486	121	169	21	6	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	158	33	9	1	5	17	28	3	3	1	209	298	373	671	165	224	16	10	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	159	35	6	1	7	9	49	2	1	1	220	271	403	673	182	269	29	5	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	156	40	8	1	7	12	32	2	1	1	256	318	455	773	199	280	19	7	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	280	61	13	1	2	37	87	3	4	1	218	316	293	608	75	304	27	11	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	268	71	15	1	3	49	55	3	4	1	265	384	362	746	97	319	17	15	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	3 teams	—	488	445	94	16	1	9	39	144	2	8	8	211	278	312	590	101	289	30	8	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	3 teams	—	488	436	116	19	2	12	48	105	2	8	8	266	342	401	743	135	324	22	10	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	411	94	19	0	10	35	101	3	13	3	229	294	348	642	119	276	22	8	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	396	98	19	0	13	49	77	3	13	3	247	334	394	728	146	274	17	11	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	STL	—	310	280	66	12	1	9	25	74	1	7	4	236	301	382	683	146	284	24	8	299	87	-5	-0	+0	+6	+9	1.0
YTD	22	AAA	STL	—	310	268	72	14	1	11	37	62	1	7	4	269	359	451	811	183	307	20	12	357	131	+11	-0	+0	+6	+9	2.6
ROS	22	AAA	STL	40%	206	186	43	8	1	5	17	49	1	4	2	230	298	364	662	134	274	24	8	290	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.5
ROS	22	MLB	STL	40%	83	76	17	3	0	2	7	19	0	2	1	224	289	342	631	118	274	23	8	286	77	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
FULL	22	AAA	STL	—	393	356	83	15	1	11	32	93	1	9	5	233	298	374	672	140	281	24	8	296	85	-7	-0	+0	+7	+11	1.2
TOT	22	AAA	STL	—	516	466	109	20	2	14	42	123	2	11	6	234	300	375	675	141	284	24	8	295	84	-9	-0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	60%	517	467	107	20	1	14	42	120	3	9	5	229	297	366	663	137	276	23	8	295	84	-9	-0	+1	+9	+15	1.5
2028	24	MLB	STL	66%	520	469	109	20	1	15	43	119	3	9	5	232	301	375	676	143	278	23	8	302	89	-6	-0	+1	+9	+15	1.9
2029	25	MLB	STL	68%	520	469	110	20	2	15	43	118	3	9	5	235	303	382	685	147	279	23	8	306	92	-5	-0	+1	+9	+15	2.0
2030	26	MLB	STL	70%	520	468	110	20	2	15	44	118	3	9	5	235	305	382	687	147	279	23	8	307	93	-4	-0	+1	+9	+15	2.1
2031	27	MLB	STL	69%	520	467	109	20	1	15	45	118	3	9	5	233	305	377	682	143	279	23	9	307	93	-4	-0	+1	+9	+15	2.1
2032	28	MLB	STL	68%	520	467	108	20	1	15	45	119	3	9	4	231	303	375	678	143	278	23	9	306	92	-4	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2033	29	MLB	STL	67%	520	467	108	20	1	15	45	120	3	8	4	231	303	375	678	143	277	23	9	304	91	-5	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.8
2034	30	MLB	STL	66%	520	467	108	20	1	15	45	121	3	7	4	231	303	375	678	143	276	23	9	301	89	-7	-0	-1	+9	+15	1.6
2035	31	MLB	STL	65%	504	452	103	19	1	14	44	119	3	6	3	228	301	367	668	139	274	24	9	297	86	-8	+0	-2	+9	+14	1.3
2036	32	MLB	STL	65%	489	441	98	18	1	13	42	118	3	5	2	222	294	356	650	134	270	24	9	292	81	-10	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.0
2037	33	MLB	STL	65%	458	413	90	16	1	12	40	112	2	4	2	218	290	349	639	131	266	24	9	285	76	-12	+0	-3	+8	+13	0.5
2038	34	MLB	STL	60%	402	363	77	13	1	10	34	101	2	2	1	212	283	336	619	124	260	25	8	276	69	-14	+0	-4	+7	+11	0.0
2039	35	MLB	STL	56%	341	307	63	10	1	8	29	88	2	1	1	205	278	322	601	117	254	26	9	266	62	-15	-0	-5	+6	+10	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	STL	60%	308	278	64	12	1	8	25	72	2	6	3	230	298	367	665	137	275	23	8	291	81	-7	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.8
2028	24	MLB	STL	66%	341	308	72	13	1	10	28	78	2	6	3	234	302	380	682	146	278	23	8	298	86	-5	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.1
2029	25	MLB	STL	68%	356	321	75	14	1	10	30	81	2	6	3	234	303	377	680	143	278	23	8	301	88	-5	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.3
2030	26	MLB	STL	70%	362	326	77	14	1	11	31	82	2	7	3	236	306	387	693	150	279	23	9	302	90	-4	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.3
2031	27	MLB	STL	69%	358	322	76	14	1	11	31	81	2	6	3	236	307	388	695	152	278	23	9	302	90	-4	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.3
2032	28	MLB	STL	68%	356	320	74	14	1	10	31	81	2	6	3	231	303	375	678	144	278	23	9	301	89	-4	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.2
2033	29	MLB	STL	67%	347	312	72	13	1	10	30	80	2	6	3	231	302	375	677	144	277	23	9	300	87	-5	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.1
2034	30	MLB	STL	66%	342	307	71	13	1	10	30	80	2	5	2	231	304	378	682	147	276	23	9	297	85	-6	+0	-1	+6	+10	1.0
2035	31	MLB	STL	65%	328	294	67	12	1	9	29	78	2	4	2	228	302	367	669	139	273	24	9	293	82	-7	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.7
2036	32	MLB	STL	65%	317	284	63	11	1	8	28	76	2	3	2	222	296	352	648	130	270	24	9	287	78	-8	-0	-2	+6	+9	0.5
2037	33	MLB	STL	65%	296	267	59	10	1	8	26	73	1	2	1	221	293	356	648	135	266	25	9	281	73	-9	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.2
2038	34	MLB	STL	60%	241	217	46	8	0	6	21	61	1	1	1	212	285	332	616	120	260	25	9	272	67	-9	-0	-3	+4	+7	-0.1
2039	35	MLB	STL	56%	189	170	33	5	0	4	16	49	1	1	0	194	267	294	561	100	254	26	8	263	59	-9	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4224	3802	866	156	11	117	363	991	23	61	30	228	299	367	666	139	276	23	9	293	83	-84	+0	-9	+75	+120	10.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	134	24	2	18	56	152	4	9	5	229	301	369	670	140	277	23	9	293	83	-13	-0	-1	+12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	8172	7363	1652	304	20	213	688	1958	50	120	62	224	295	358	653	133	275	24	8	291	81	-176	-1	-15	+146	+232	19.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	132	24	2	17	55	156	4	10	5	225	297	360	657	135	276	24	8	291	81	-14	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	158	33	9	1	5	17	28	3	3	1	209	298	373	671	165	224	16	10	303	90	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2022	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	156	40	8	1	7	12	32	2	1	1	256	318	455	773	199	280	19	7	339	118	+3	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	268	71	15	1	3	49	55	3	4	1	265	384	362	746	97	319	17	15	342	120	+7	+0	—	—	+9	1.7
2024	20	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	55	49	10	1	0	1	6	9	0	0	2	204	291	286	577	82	231	16	11	269	64	-2	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	382	341	92	17	2	10	37	87	2	7	5	270	345	419	764	150	333	23	10	341	119	+8	-1	—	—	+11	1.9
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	51	46	14	1	0	1	5	9	0	1	1	304	373	391	764	87	361	18	10	347	124	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	396	98	19	0	13	49	77	3	13	3	247	334	394	728	146	274	17	11	324	106	+3	+1	—	—	+13	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,269	118	62	228	295	368	+69	+24	11.9	10.4
	/162	664	18	10	228	295	368	+10.8	+3.8	1.8	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Bernal (OGILVIE)	22	46→50	45→49	35→30	50	234/300/375	141	284	14	11	24%	8%	84	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Héctor Sánchez 2012 · MLB	22	49→50	45→50	37→30	42	244/283/366	122	295	12	2	22%	5%	79	+0.3	242/282/359	117	302	12	3	23%	5%	78	+0.2	218/263/386	168	257	23	0	26%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Brooks Lee 2023 · A	22	49→50	46→50	41→45	50	242/309/371	129	290	13	6	21%	8%	92	+1.2	241/293/377	136	281	14	6	19%	7%	87	+0.8	240/293/387	147	262	19	6	17%	6%	87	+0.6
●Daniel Robertson 2016 · AA	22	50→54	42→45	39→40	47	241/308/353	112	299	9	4	22%	7%	87	+0.8	233/313/339	106	302	9	4	24%	8%	86	+0.8	231/336/345	114	301	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Edinson Rincon 2013 · AA	22	50→55	46→50	34→30	40	247/281/376	129	300	13	2	23%	4%	82	+0.5	233/273/324	91	301	7	4	24%	5%	63	-0.8	210/261/260	50	292	2	0	27%	5%	39	-1.1
✕Phillip Cuadrado 2007 · A	23	49→51	48→50	37→40	43	247/303/388	140	299	16	4	23%	5%	95	+1.4	225/284/351	126	291	13	5	26%	6%	77	+0.1	183/249/299	115	239	12	0	28%	6%	46	-0.6
✕Ruben Gotay 2006 · MLB	23	47→51	44→45	40→50	49	231/289/351	121	264	10	4	17%	7%	79	+0.3	237/292/359	122	286	11	8	20%	7%	82	+0.5	232/338/349	117	300	9	1	23%	13%	96	+1.0
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	49→56	44→50	35→30	48	242/300/363	121	287	11	2	20%	7%	86	+0.8	244/303/369	125	281	13	3	18%	7%	89	+1.0	248/306/390	142	280	14	0	17%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Blake DeWitt 2008 · AA	22	47→55	46→50	40	43	238/275/370	132	276	14	4	20%	5%	77	+0.1	243/306/371	128	279	11	4	17%	8%	91	+1.1	245/319/368	123	281	10	3	16%	9%	87	+0.7
●Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	244/290/381	137	307	15	4	25%	5%	87	+0.8	216/256/337	121	284	11	5	27%	4%	61	-1.0	227/268/390	163	293	18	4	28%	4%	80	+0.2
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	44→51	48→50	37→45	54	224/307/363	140	262	17	3	22%	10%	90	+1.0	226/294/350	124	277	12	5	22%	8%	81	+0.4	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Jose Lobatón 2007 · A	22	44	42→50	42→30	47	210/289/319	109	299	10	4	31%	9%	71	-0.3	219/282/346	127	299	13	3	29%	8%	75	-0.0	237/323/373	135	298	13	0	23%	11%	96	+0.7
●Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	48→50	43→55	39→45	48	232/293/350	118	281	10	5	21%	7%	80	+0.4	229/290/342	113	274	9	7	19%	7%	77	+0.1	243/303/403	161	276	17	6	19%	6%	96	+1.0
✕Omar Mendoza 2007 · AAA	24	50→54	44→45	40→45	47	244/297/362	117	293	11	7	20%	7%	84	+0.6	244/294/359	115	289	11	9	19%	7%	82	+0.5	240/294/347	108	280	10	8	18%	7%	76	+0.0
●Jeimer Candelario 2016 · AA	22	43→53	44→60	38→45	43	215/264/339	124	266	11	2	24%	6%	65	-0.7	240/304/398	158	302	14	2	24%	8%	98	+1.6	267/350/455	188	328	19	2	23%	10%	128	+2.8
✕Rio Ruiz 2017 · AAA	23	49→51	42→50	38→40	48	236/300/341	105	301	9	3	24%	8%	80	+0.4	223/280/347	124	284	13	3	25%	7%	73	-0.1	212/277/351	139	251	16	3	22%	8%	72	-0.1
●Hector Gimenez 2006 · AA	23	48→50	44→60	41→40	41	238/274/351	113	290	13	4	23%	5%	72	-0.2	222/263/328	106	272	12	5	23%	5%	61	-1.0	244/294/450	206	281	27	3	24%	6%	106	+1.3
●Christian Vázquez 2014 · AA	23	48→55	43→50	42→45	48	237/298/346	110	287	10	6	21%	8%	81	+0.4	243/296/330	87	304	6	4	21%	7%	76	+0.0	256/308/402	145	293	18	8	19%	7%	96	+1.0
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2011 · A	22	50	41→45	36→50	45	241/293/345	103	305	8	5	23%	6%	78	+0.2	215/265/313	98	284	7	3	26%	6%	58	-1.2	200/251/293	93	264	7	1	26%	5%	44	-1.2
✕Deivy Grullón 2018 · AA	22	44→42	44→55	38→30	37	220/255/336	116	297	12	2	30%	4%	59	-1.1	233/277/398	165	310	22	3	31%	6%	86	+0.8	216/265/392	177	286	27	1	34%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2007 · AA	22	45→53	48→60	43→40	46	229/294/371	143	287	16	3	26%	7%	86	+0.8	244/308/390	146	318	16	3	27%	8%	97	+1.5	232/311/417	185	312	22	2	31%	10%	101	+1.4