Leo Bernal

C Memphis Redbirds

Age 23 S/R 6'0" / 245 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.157 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	488	.266/.342/.401	12	8	77	—	.228/.290/.338
2025	21	AASTL	455	.247/.334/.394	13	13	77	—	.227/.294/.344
2026	22	AAA/INTL2 orgs	457	.273/.364/.468	18	9	95	—	.249/.316/.396
2026	22	MLBSTL	102	.284/.333/.474	5	0	132	1.6
2027PROJ45% MLB	23	MLBSTL	70	.254/.318/.401	2	1	104	0.4
2028PROJ63% MLB	24	MLBSTL	282	.256/.321/.409	8	4	107	1.5
2029PROJ72% MLB	25	MLBSTL	320	.257/.323/.412	10	5	108	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.157First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$9M2032Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV88

K%66

BB%60

Speed56

Whiff%53

Chase%46

Form.255/.313/.420 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .254/.316/.406

Career WAR1.2 WAR median (P10 -1.2 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 58%

CompsJordan Diaz (age 23) · Jarrod Saltalamacchia (age 24) · Adley Rutschman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.254 / .318 / .401

PA70

HR2

K%21

BB%9

BABIP299

ISO141

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

730.270

POWER

Barrel%

6210.0

Avg EV

9092.6

SPEED

Sprint

2326.2

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%▼▼25% over 102 PA (60d) · proj 21%

BB%8%▼7% over 102 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.166▲.189 over 95 AB (60d) · proj .152

HR/BB5.4%▲7.1% over 70 BBE (60d) · proj 4.3%

BABIP.300·.338 over 65 BIP (60d) · proj .297

SLASH.255/.313/.420·proj .254/.316/.406

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.157 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.9	$12M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$11M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.7	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$29M		$57M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	158	33	9	1	5	17	28	3	3	1	209	298	373	671	165	224	16	10	303	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	156	40	8	1	7	12	32	2	1	1	256	318	455	773	199	280	19	7	339	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	268	71	15	1	3	49	55	3	4	1	265	384	362	746	97	319	17	15	342	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	55	49	10	1	0	1	6	9	0	0	2	204	291	286	577	82	231	16	11	269	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	382	341	92	17	2	10	37	87	2	7	5	270	345	419	764	150	333	23	10	341	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	51	46	14	1	0	1	5	9	0	1	1	304	373	391	764	87	361	18	10	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	396	98	19	0	13	49	77	3	13	3	247	334	394	728	146	274	17	11	324	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	102	95	27	3	0	5	7	25	0	0	1	284	333	474	807	189	338	25	7	356	132	+4	-0	+0	+10	+2	1.6
2026	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	432	374	104	19	2	16	51	86	2	9	7	278	368	468	836	190	318	20	12	367	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	25	21	4	0	0	2	3	10	0	0	0	190	292	476	768	286	200	40	12	323	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	102	95	27	3	0	5	7	25	0	0	1	284	333	474	807	189	338	25	7	356	127	+3	-0	+0	+10	+2	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	163	21	6	1	2	12	33	3	3	1	129	202	215	417	86	144	19	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	160	36	6	1	6	8	45	2	1	1	225	271	388	658	163	271	26	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	282	65	13	1	2	35	79	3	4	1	230	322	305	627	74	302	24	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	55	51	10	1	0	1	4	12	0	0	2	196	255	275	529	78	224	22	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	382	349	81	14	1	8	29	110	2	7	5	232	295	347	641	115	309	29	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	410	93	18	0	10	36	95	3	13	3	227	294	344	638	117	265	21	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	102	95	27	3	0	5	7	25	0	0	1	284	333	474	807	189	338	25	7	364	132	+4	-0	+0	+10	+2	1.6
2026	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	432	389	97	17	2	12	36	103	2	9	7	249	316	396	712	147	297	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	163	21	6	1	2	12	33	3	3	1	129	202	215	417	86	148	19	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	158	33	9	1	5	17	28	3	3	1	209	298	373	671	165	224	16	10	303	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	160	36	6	1	6	8	45	2	1	1	225	271	388	658	163	273	26	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	156	40	8	1	7	12	32	2	1	1	256	318	455	773	199	280	19	7	339	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	282	65	13	1	2	35	79	3	4	1	230	322	305	627	74	309	24	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	268	71	15	1	3	49	55	3	4	1	265	384	362	746	97	319	17	15	342	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	488	446	101	16	2	10	38	136	2	8	8	226	290	339	629	112	301	28	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	488	436	116	19	2	12	48	105	2	8	8	266	342	401	743	135	324	22	10	333	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	410	93	18	0	10	36	95	3	13	3	227	294	344	638	117	269	21	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	396	98	19	0	13	49	77	3	13	3	247	334	394	728	146	274	17	11	324	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	559	506	129	20	2	18	45	134	2	9	8	255	318	409	727	154	308	24	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	559	490	135	22	2	23	61	121	2	9	8	276	358	469	827	194	318	22	11	363	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	178	161	21	6	1	2	12	33	3	3	1	130	202	217	420	87	144	19	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	171	159	36	6	1	6	8	45	2	1	1	226	271	390	661	164	271	26	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	282	65	13	1	2	35	79	3	4	1	230	322	305	627	74	302	24	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	488	445	101	16	2	10	38	136	2	8	8	227	290	339	629	112	298	28	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	413	93	18	0	10	36	95	3	13	3	225	294	341	635	116	265	21	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	559	507	129	20	2	18	45	134	2	9	8	254	318	408	727	154	305	24	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	488	445	101	16	2	10	38	136	2	8	8	227	290	339	629	112	298	28	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	455	413	93	18	0	10	36	95	3	13	3	225	294	341	635	116	265	21	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	559	507	129	20	2	18	45	134	2	9	8	254	318	408	727	154	305	24	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	45%	593	537	137	24	2	18	48	125	3	9	3	254	319	406	724	152	297	21	8	321	104	+3	+1	+2	+11	+13	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	45%	70	64	16	3	0	2	6	15	0	1	0	254	318	401	719	147	299	21	9	319	104	+0	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	63%	445	404	104	18	2	14	36	93	2	7	2	257	322	415	736	158	298	21	8	326	107	+4	+1	+2	+8	+10	2.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	72%	445	403	103	18	2	14	37	93	2	7	2	257	323	419	742	162	298	21	8	328	108	+4	+1	+2	+8	+10	2.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	76%	445	403	104	18	2	15	37	93	2	6	2	257	323	419	742	162	297	21	8	329	109	+5	+0	+2	+8	+10	2.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	76%	445	402	102	18	2	14	37	94	3	6	2	255	322	416	738	161	297	21	8	327	107	+4	+0	+2	+8	+10	2.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	76%	445	402	102	18	2	14	37	95	3	5	2	253	320	411	731	158	295	21	8	324	105	+3	+0	+1	+8	+10	2.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	74%	445	403	102	18	2	14	37	97	2	3	2	250	317	404	721	154	294	22	8	320	103	+2	-0	+1	+8	+10	2.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	73%	445	403	98	17	1	13	37	98	2	2	1	247	313	396	710	149	292	22	8	316	100	-0	+0	-0	+8	+10	1.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	73%	426	386	93	16	1	12	35	95	2	1	1	243	308	386	695	144	289	22	8	309	96	-2	-0	-1	+8	+9	1.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	72%	407	369	88	15	1	11	33	93	2	1	1	237	302	373	675	136	285	23	8	302	90	-5	-0	-2	+7	+9	1.0
2037	33	MLB MLE	STL	72%	375	342	79	13	1	10	29	88	1	1	0	230	294	358	652	127	280	23	8	292	84	-7	+0	-3	+7	+8	0.5
2038	34	MLB MLE	STL	68%	305	278	62	10	1	7	23	74	1	0	0	222	284	339	624	117	273	24	8	280	76	-9	+0	-4	+5	+7	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	63%	282	256	65	12	1	8	23	59	1	4	1	256	321	409	730	153	300	21	8	324	107	+2	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	72%	320	289	74	13	1	10	26	67	2	5	2	257	323	412	735	156	300	21	8	326	108	+3	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	76%	337	304	77	14	1	10	28	71	2	5	2	256	323	413	736	157	299	21	8	326	109	+3	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	76%	338	305	77	14	1	10	28	72	2	4	2	254	322	410	731	155	298	21	8	325	107	+3	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	76%	338	305	77	14	1	10	28	72	2	3	1	252	319	405	724	153	297	21	8	322	105	+2	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	74%	330	298	74	14	1	9	27	72	2	2	1	250	317	399	715	149	296	22	8	318	103	+1	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	73%	326	294	72	13	1	9	27	72	2	1	1	247	313	391	704	144	294	22	8	313	100	-0	-0	-0	+6	+7	1.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	73%	309	280	67	12	1	8	25	69	1	1	1	242	308	381	689	139	291	22	8	307	96	-2	-0	-1	+6	+7	1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	72%	294	267	63	11	1	7	24	67	1	1	0	237	302	369	670	132	287	23	8	300	90	-3	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2037	33	MLB CTX	STL	72%	270	246	57	10	1	6	21	63	1	1	0	230	294	353	647	123	282	23	8	290	84	-5	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	STL	68%	206	187	42	7	0	5	16	50	1	0	0	222	284	335	620	113	275	24	8	279	76	-6	+0	-2	+4	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3452	3126	772	137	10	97	280	759	17	27	12	247	312	390	703	143	295	22	8	315	93	+2	+1	+1	+70	+75	15.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	145	26	2	18	53	143	3	5	2	246	312	389	700	143	295	22	8	315	93	+0	+0	+0	+13	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6957	6302	1518	264	25	191	565	1568	38	79	38	241	307	382	689	141	290	23	8	305	93	+2	+1	+1	+95	+106	21.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	142	25	2	18	53	146	4	7	4	241	309	382	691	141	289	22	8	305	93	+0	+0	+0	+13	+14	2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 432 PAwOBA .361 → .309 (−52)K% 19.9% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.57%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.39%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.46%
Singles /BIP	23.26%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.993	×1.050	22.56%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	×1.050	5.71%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.993	×1.050	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .361 → .309; ISO .190 → .150; BABIP .318 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 455 PAwOBA .319 → .282 (−37)K% 16.9% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.92%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	20.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.77%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.02%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.60%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷0.966	×0.920	×0.983	×1.050	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	5.96%	÷0.916	×0.840	×0.983	×1.050	5.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.983	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷1.105	×0.800	—	×1.050	3.10%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .319 → .282; ISO .146 → .121; BABIP .274 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 382 PAwOBA .334 → .282 (−51)K% 22.8% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.77%	÷1.006	×1.270	—	—	28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.69%	÷0.930	×0.710	—	×1.042	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.43%
Singles /BIP	24.80%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.999	×1.042	23.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.69%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.042	5.64%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.999	×1.042	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	3.94%	÷0.993	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.31%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .334 → .282; ISO .150 → .119; BABIP .333 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 55 PAwOBA .262 → .221 (−42)K% 16.4% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.36%	÷0.943	×1.220	—	—	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.91%	÷0.992	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.998	×0.920	×1.016	×1.050	19.67%
Doubles /BIP	2.50%	÷0.940	×0.840	×1.016	×1.050	2.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.016	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.386	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.52%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .262 → .221; ISO .082 → .055; BABIP .231 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 323 PAwOBA .337 → .285 (−52)K% 17.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.03%	÷0.950	×1.360	—	—	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.17%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	10.94%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.76%
Singles /BIP	24.41%	÷0.998	×0.920	×1.009	×1.045	23.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.04%	÷1.007	×0.830	×1.009	×1.045	6.12%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.023	×0.910	×1.009	×1.045	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.41%	÷1.010	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.17%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .337 → .285; ISO .097 → .081; BABIP .319 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 171 PAwOBA .332 → .287 (−44)K% 18.7% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.71%	÷0.966	×1.360	—	—	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.02%	÷1.029	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.94%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.96%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷0.985	×0.920	×1.031	×1.050	19.58%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.076	×0.830	×1.031	×1.050	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.031	×1.050	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	5.65%	÷0.880	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.39%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .332 → .287; ISO .199 → .173; BABIP .280 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Cardinals Blue · 178 PAwOBA .295 → .187 (−108)K% 15.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.73%	÷1.048	×1.220	—	—	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.55%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.77%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.21%
Singles /BIP	13.85%	÷1.037	×0.680	×1.020	×1.022	9.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.92%	÷1.030	×0.600	×1.020	×1.022	4.20%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.020	×1.022	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.030	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.79%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .295 → .187; ISO .165 → .087; BABIP .224 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Terry Kennedy'78-'91 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,421 PA	8.2	5,421	113	6	260*	313*	414*	+90	+0	24.6	22.4
/162	664	14	1	+11.1	+0.0	3.0	pk7: 20
#2Ernie Whitt'76-'91 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,271 PA	6.4	4,271	134	22	245*	324*	430*	+75	+0	21.1	20.3
/162	664	21	3	+11.6	+0.0	3.3	pk7: 20
#3Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.3	3,522	108	29	250	311	401	+63	+21	16.1	14.1
/162	664	20	5	+11.9	+3.9	3.0	pk7: 12
#6Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Bernal (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	252/316/402	150	297	5	2	21%	8%	104	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Diaz 2024 · MLB	23	52→59	51→55	37→30	43	263/303/420	157	304	19	2	20%	5%	103	+1.5	260/310/421	161	307	20	4	22%	6%	105	+1.7	276/327/444	168	323	22	0	21%	6%	113	+1.6
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2009 · MLB	24	50→54	48→60	40	49	248/319/394	146	320	15	3	26%	9%	102	+1.5	232/294/394	162	306	19	3	29%	7%	93	+0.8	233/308/421	188	311	23	2	31%	10%	106	+1.3
●Adley Rutschman 2022 · AAA	24	47→54	49→50	41→40	52	239/316/389	149	280	17	5	21%	9%	100	+1.3	252/340/410	158	285	17	4	17%	11%	114	+2.4	253/342/408	155	280	18	2	16%	11%	115	+2.5
✕Dioner Navarro 2009 · MLB	25	53→61	44→50	38→45	52	260/319/381	121	284	11	4	13%	8%	99	+1.2	229/288/337	108	254	11	6	14%	7%	78	-0.3	275/323/410	135	299	17	2	14%	6%	108	+1.2
●Devin Mesoraco 2012 · MLB	24	46→50	53→60	42→40	45	239/295/416	177	281	20	3	23%	6%	99	+1.2	237/293/397	160	272	19	3	20%	7%	94	+0.9	235/319/433	198	264	26	1	22%	9%	112	+1.1
✕Hank Conger 2011 · MLB	23	52→58	45→50	41→45	50	255/312/383	128	294	12	3	18%	8%	97	+1.1	239/294/373	134	281	15	3	20%	7%	88	+0.5	230/300/385	155	282	18	0	24%	8%	94	+0.4
✕Nomar Mazara 2018 · MLB	23	49→53	50→55	40	48	251/312/402	151	291	18	3	21%	7%	101	+1.4	251/308/415	164	299	20	4	22%	7%	103	+1.5	250/306/413	163	300	20	3	23%	6%	101	+0.9
✕Josmil Pinto 2014 · MLB	25	53→60	49→50	40	48	265/324/419	154	317	16	2	22%	8%	109	+2.0	241/303/385	144	295	16	2	23%	8%	95	+0.9	224/286/364	140	276	16	0	24%	7%	81	-0.0
●Brandon Drury 2017 · MLB	24	53→56	47→60	38→40	44	262/304/399	137	304	14	3	19%	5%	97	+1.1	247/300/395	148	306	15	3	23%	6%	95	+1.0	255/306/468	213	301	27	1	24%	6%	116	+1.9
●Mark Vientos 2023 · MLB	23	48→51	55→60	37→30	40	242/299/424	182	337	25	2	35%	7%	102	+1.5	248/306/443	195	322	25	2	30%	7%	109	+2.0	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
✕Brett Baty 2023 · MLB	23	56→59	52→50	40→45	44	272/338/440	168	366	20	5	30%	8%	120	+2.8	241/307/396	155	309	20	5	27%	8%	99	+1.2	239/311/392	153	299	20	6	26%	9%	99	+0.9
●Miguel Montero 2007 · MLB	24	50→58	52→55	38→40	47	257/315/420	163	285	20	3	18%	6%	107	+1.8	250/311/413	163	280	19	3	18%	7%	104	+1.6	267/343/423	156	316	17	0	20%	9%	119	+2.2
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	46→56	50	41→40	44	227/316/380	152	307	18	3	30%	8%	99	+1.3	209/304/353	144	283	16	4	30%	9%	88	+0.5	175/282/296	122	242	12	0	31%	10%	68	-0.3
●Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	49→60	44→50	42	267/300/423	156	314	16	6	21%	4%	101	+1.4	265/301/408	143	298	15	14	16%	5%	98	+1.2	267/302/451	184	288	23	15	17%	5%	110	+1.8
●Jhonny Peralta 2006 · MLB	24	54→63	55	37→40	51	274/344/473	198	326	22	2	23%	9%	130	+3.5	266/332/431	165	325	18	3	22%	9%	115	+2.4	275/337/435	160	317	18	2	19%	8%	119	+2.6
✕Francisco Mejía 2019 · MLB	23	50→60	48→55	46→40	41	252/292/393	141	300	15	4	22%	4%	92	+0.7	246/297/406	160	293	17	4	22%	5%	97	+1.1	257/303/425	168	304	16	1	21%	4%	105	+0.8
✕Willy Aybar 2008 · MLB	25	55→57	46→50	39→40	54	269/335/406	137	299	12	5	15%	9%	110	+2.1	249/319/399	150	272	17	4	15%	9%	103	+1.6	241/316/385	144	265	16	2	16%	9%	100	+0.8
✕Gordon Beckham 2011 · MLB	24	52→56	48→50	41→45	51	258/322/408	150	293	14	7	17%	8%	107	+1.8	240/302/363	123	276	12	6	17%	7%	88	+0.5	238/298/349	112	271	12	6	17%	6%	85	+0.2
●Alex Avila 2011 · MLB	24	49→59	47→55	42→40	53	244/320/381	138	299	15	4	23%	10%	100	+1.3	258/345/426	168	328	17	4	24%	12%	119	+2.7	256/350/427	171	330	18	2	26%	12%	122	+2.3

Leo Bernal

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps