Sandy Alcantara

P Miami Marlins

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	29	29	189	4.05	3.74	20.0%	6.2%	3.8	K 19.8% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.89
2025	29	MLBMIA	31	31	175	5.36	4.09	19.1%	7.7%	2.7
2026	30	MLBMIA	36	33	214	3.87	3.96	17.1%	6.6%	3.7
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	23	23	144	4.46	4.35	19.2%	6.9%	1.8
2028PROJ	32	MLBMIA	17	17	104	4.46	4.51	18.4%	7.3%	1.0
2029PROJ	33	MLBMIA	12	12	74	4.66	4.79	17.5%	7.8%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2027Service8.581First FA2028Options1

2027Ext / FA-deal$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs61

K%15

Form6.82 ERA (proj 4.46) · K 11.7% (proj 19.2%) · BB 7.3% (proj 6.9%) ▼▼ last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

CompsRolando Arrojo (age 32) · Cory Lidle (age 31) · Hideo Nomo (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.46

FIP4.35

K%19.2%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+1.8	$14M	+$1M
Totals		$13M		$14M	+$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	13.0%	9.4%	3.6%	1.6%	3.22	4.05	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	1.1%	3.22	3.05	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	21.4%	13.0%	8.5%	0.9%	3.96	3.44	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	28.7%	11.1%	17.6%	0.8%	3.96	2.47	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.1%	4.31	4.32	+1.7
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.5%	4.31	4.17	+1.9
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.3%	3.80	4.19	+2.3
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	1.9%	3.80	3.80	+3.1
2019	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.9%	3.88	4.31	+2.5
2019	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.7%	3.88	4.24	+2.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.4%	3.00	3.63	+0.9
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.3%	3.00	3.55	+0.9
2021	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.19	3.25	+5.5
2021	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.5%	3.19	3.17	+5.7
2022	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.9%	2.28	2.87	+7.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.8%	2.28	2.84	+7.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.05	3.89	+3.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.05	3.74	+3.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+2.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+2.5
2025	29	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.0%	5.36	4.09	+2.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.8%	3.87	4.04	+3.5
2026	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.8%	3.87	4.04	+3.5
2026	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.96	+3.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	202	1289	5319	1084	381	137	95%	6.1	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.69	+26.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	23	23	144	608	117	42	18	100%	6.3	19.2%	6.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.35	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	104	438	81	32	14	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.55	4.60	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	74	314	55	24	11	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.88	+0.4
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	51	214	36	18	8	100%	6.3	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.8%	5.01	5.19	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	104	439	81	32	13	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.51	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	74	312	55	24	10	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.3%	4.66	4.79	+0.4
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	51	215	36	18	8	100%	6.4	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.6%	4.91	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		250	239	1518	6285	1255	455	168	96%	6.1	20.0%	7.2%	12.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+29.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	31	200	828	165	60	22	96%	6.1	20.0%	7.2%	12.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		296	282	1733	7219	1403	577	177	95%	5.9	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	2.5%	3.74	3.82	+28.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	33	200	833	162	67	20	95%	5.9	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	2.5%	3.74	3.82	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 116 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.08 (+0.41)K% 18.2% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.880	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.050	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷0.952	×1.100	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 11 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.53 (+0.52)K% 16.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.770	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.150	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 125 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.32 (+0.32)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.10%	—	×0.810	15.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.100	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.315	×1.200	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 163).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 APeoria Chiefs · 90 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.59 (+1.03)K% 29.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.82%	—	×0.740	22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.180	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.066	×1.300	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 32 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.97 (+0.69)K% 25.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.770	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.150	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.979	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Cardinals · 64 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.05 (+1.00)K% 19.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.10%	—	×0.680	12.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.250	9.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.82	17.7%	10.0%	229	+0.47	—	—	—
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	67
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	66
Hideo Nomo R 2000 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP	4.66	21.9%	10.6%	3.7%	.303	4.13	22.0%	11.4%	637	-0.53	2.76	1,972	66
Robert Person R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	31	SP	4.60	21.1%	8.9%	3.9%	.253	5.06	16.0%	2.7%	99	+0.46	3.41	885	65
Ryan Franklin R 2004 · 5.05 FIP	31	SP	5.05	12.0%	6.9%	3.8%	.284	4.65	12.1%	6.0%	348	-0.40	3.12	1,201	65
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	62
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	62
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	61
Elmer Dessens R 2002 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	12.6%	5.6%	3.3%	.257	4.20	14.6%	8.4%	346	-0.33	3.55	1,167	60
Miguel Batista R 2002 · 3.81 FIP	31	SP-	3.81	14.2%	8.5%	1.5%	.267	4.13	14.9%	6.3%	467	+0.32	3.39	1,943	58
Paul Wilson R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	14.7%	7.3%	3.3%	.278	5.32	13.4%	6.3%	46	+0.75	2.59	942	58
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	57
Tanyon Sturtze R 2002 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP	4.84	13.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.317	4.69	14.3%	5.4%	245	-0.15	4.33	787	55
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	54
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	54
Garrett Stephenson R 2003 · 5.24 FIP	31	SP	5.24	12.2%	7.6%	4.0%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	645	53
Hiroki Kuroda R 2008 · 3.31 FIP	33	SP	3.31	14.9%	4.4%	1.7%	.274	3.36	19.1%	14.4%	516	+0.05	2.96	1,319	52
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	49
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	47
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.3	139	19.9%	7.3%	1.05	3.89
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Denny Neagle ('03)	9.5	145	17.6%	7.4%	1.19	4.24
Kirk McCaskill ('85-'96, 16 WAR*)	8.6	144	18.2%*	8.6%*	0.97*	4.30*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Ken Forsch ('70-'86, 26 WAR*)	10.6	152	17.2%*	6.6%*	0.99*	4.00*
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*