Sandy Alcantara — OGILVIE

Sandy Alcantara P Miami Marlins

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION200 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.22

FIP4.10

K%17.8%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 217 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL5055

CMD5060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p1617.2%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

FB+4.8 (45%)

CT+1.1 (15%)

CH (21%)

SI (26%)

CU (4%)

SL (16%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.2	$0.7M	-$0.7M
Totals		$1M		$0.7M	-$0.7M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	13.0%	9.4%	3.6%	1.6%	3.22	4.05	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	1.1%	3.22	3.05	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	21.4%	13.0%	8.5%	0.9%	3.96	3.44	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	28.7%	11.1%	17.6%	0.8%	3.96	2.47	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.1%	4.31	4.32	+0.9
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.5%	4.31	4.17	+1.2
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.3%	3.80	4.19	+1.4
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	1.9%	3.80	3.80	+2.1
2019	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.9%	3.88	4.31	+1.4
2019	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.7%	3.88	4.24	+1.5
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.4%	3.00	3.63	+0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.3%	3.00	3.55	+0.7
2021	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.19	3.25	+4.2
2021	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.5%	3.19	3.17	+4.4
2022	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.9%	2.28	2.87	+6.0
2022	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.8%	2.28	2.84	+6.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.05	3.89	+2.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.05	3.89	+2.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.05	3.74	+2.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+1.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+1.5
2025	29	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.0%	5.36	4.09	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			208	200	1275	5258	1074	377	135	96%	6.1	20.4%	7.2%	13.3%	2.6%	3.67	3.68	+18.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	200	833	143	55	22	100%	6.5	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	2.8%	3.78	4.01	+2.1
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	200	833	143	55	22	100%	6.5	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	2.8%	3.78	4.01	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	MIA	31	31	200	833	143	55	22	100%	6.5	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	2.6%	3.78	3.94	+2.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	MIA	31	31	200	833	143	55	22	100%	6.5	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	2.6%	3.78	3.94	+2.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIA	3	3	17	71	13	5	2	100%	5.6	17.8%	6.9%	11.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.10	+0.2
ROS	30	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	13	5	2	100%	5.7	17.8%	6.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.02	+0.2
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	217	904	156	60	24	—	—	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	2.7%	3.81	4.02	+2.3
FULL	30	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	217	916	156	60	24	—	—	17.0%	6.5%	10.5%	2.6%	3.81	3.93	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	159	673	117	49	20	100%	6.1	17.4%	7.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	147	622	103	47	20	100%	6.1	16.6%	7.6%	8.9%	3.3%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	135	571	90	46	20	100%	6.1	15.7%	8.1%	7.6%	3.6%	4.97	5.13	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	159	671	117	48	19	100%	6.1	17.4%	7.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.51	+0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	103	47	19	100%	6.1	16.6%	7.6%	8.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.76	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	135	570	90	46	19	100%	6.1	15.7%	8.1%	7.6%	3.4%	4.87	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		283	275	1734	7195	1396	524	195	97%	6.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+21.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	32	200	830	161	60	22	97%	6.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		291	280	1719	7158	1393	573	175	96%	5.9	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.4%	3.73	3.81	+19.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	33	200	833	162	67	20	96%	5.9	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.4%	3.73	3.81	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	20.7%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.84	16.6%	9.0%	442	+0.47	—	—	—
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	67
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	66
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	66
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	65
Alex Cobb R 2018 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	15.4%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	3.86	21.3%	13.4%	158	-0.46	2.74	844	65
Andrew Cashner R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	30	SP	4.34	12.2%	9.1%	2.1%	.262	4.68	15.7%	6.6%	303	+0.34	3.64	786	62
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	62
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	61
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	61
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	60
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	58
Charlie Morton R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	17.9%	6.3%	2.3%	.302	3.22	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.41	2.52	1,534	57
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	57
Thad Weber R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	30	SP	4.62	13.7%	6.4%	3.4%	.293	4.63	11.2%	5.7%	202	+0.01	4.40	363	57
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	56
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	56
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	56
Toru Murata R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	30	SP	4.04	13.3%	6.9%	2.2%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.41	3.63	267	56
Kyle Davies R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	31	SP	3.58	13.8%	6.1%	1.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	153	56
Jeremy Hellickson R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	30	SP	5.25	13.8%	6.5%	4.5%	.241	4.29	17.7%	11.3%	147	-0.96	3.74	646	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	153	17.7%	7.6%	1.25	4.67
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14