Sandy Alcantara — OGILVIE

Sandy Alcantara P Miami Marlins

+1.9 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.9 · 2026

ERA4.57

FIP4.46

xFIP4.66

SIERA4.72

K%19.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.9%

IP171

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

FB+4.8 (43%)

CT+1.1 (9%)

CH (24%)

SI (23%)

SL (24%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	13.0%	9.4%	1.6%	3.22	4.05	+0.7
2016	20	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	21.4%	13.0%	0.9%	3.96	3.42	+2.6
2017	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	15.5%	10.7%	2.2%	4.31	4.38	+1.4
2018	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	17.1%	9.8%	2.4%	3.80	4.19	+2.0
2019	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	18.0%	9.1%	2.7%	3.88	4.22	+2.4
2020	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	22.7%	8.7%	2.6%	3.00	3.71	+0.6
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	24.0%	5.7%	2.7%	3.19	3.28	+4.7
2022	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	23.4%	5.5%	1.8%	2.28	2.83	+6.4
2023	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	19.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.05	3.80	+3.2
2025	29	MLB	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	19.1%	7.7%	3.1%	5.36	4.15	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	4	4	30	116	22	6	3	19.0%	5.2%	2.6%	2.67	3.57	+0.5
ROS	30	MLB	MIA	23	23	128	542	114	38	16	21.1%	7.0%	2.9%	4.13	3.82	+2.1
2026 Total	30	MLB	MIA	—	—	159	658	136	44	19	20.7%	6.7%	2.9%	3.85	3.78	+2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	MIA	26	26	142	602	124	43	18	20.5%	7.2%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+1.6
2028	32	MLB	MIA	23	23	127	537	107	39	17	19.9%	7.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.43	+1.3
2029	33	MLB	MIA	21	21	113	477	92	36	15	19.3%	7.5%	3.2%	4.50	4.56	+0.9
2030	34	MLB	MIA	18	18	100	421	78	32	14	18.6%	7.7%	3.3%	4.62	4.69	+0.7
2031	35	MLB	MIA	16	16	88	369	66	29	13	17.8%	7.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.85	+0.3
2032	36	MLB	MIA	14	14	76	321	61	24	11	19.0%	7.4%	3.5%	4.75	4.74	+0.3
2033	37	MLB	MIA	12	12	66	277	50	21	10	18.2%	7.7%	3.7%	4.85	4.91	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			264	253	1549	6441	1272	524	152	19.7%	8.1%	2.4%	3.70	3.76	+27.0
/ 200 IP	—			34	33	200	832	164	68	20	19.7%	8.1%	2.4%	3.70	3.76	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	22.4%	7.7%	3.0%	—	4.42	20.0%	12.6%	383	+0.19	—	—	—
Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	57
Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	57
Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	57
Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	57
Nate Long R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	56
Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	56
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.1%	5.7%	1.7%	.318	3.83	16.4%	10.4%	252	+0.16	3.48	515	55
Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	55
Elih Villanueva R 2025 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	55
Greg Peavey R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	55
Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	55
Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP	4.32	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.81	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.49	4.32	287	55
Mike Pelfrey R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.2%	1.5%	.326	5.27	12.5%	2.9%	239	+1.57	3.70	404	54
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	30	SP	4.26	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	401	53
Jose Pina R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	30	SP	3.68	12.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.287	4.24	14.5%	7.5%	176	+0.56	3.65	424	53
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	52
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.70	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.33	4.37	474	51
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	51
Alex Cobb R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	30	SP	4.44	15.4%	5.7%	3.5%	.298	3.95	21.3%	13.4%	158	-0.49	2.72	844	51
Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.71 FIP	33	SP	3.71	18.7%	4.2%	3.0%	.285	4.61	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.90	3.71	393	50

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+1.9	$15M	-$2M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+1.6	$13M	-$8M
Totals		$38M		$28M	-$10M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE