Sandy Alcantara
P
Miami Marlins
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION131 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10494vR 85
ERA3.95
FIP3.83
K%19.0%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 205 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.5
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB+4.8 (44%)
CT+1.1 (15%)
CH (21%)
SI (25%)
CU (4%)
SL (16%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | 12 | 12 | 64 | 267 | 51 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 4.05 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | 12 | 12 | 64 | 267 | 51 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 3.22 | 3.05 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 533 | 153 | 59 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 3.96 | 3.41 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 533 | 153 | 59 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 28.7% | 11.1% | 17.6% | 0.8% | 3.96 | 2.47 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 134 | 594 | 116 | 60 | 15 | 67% | 4.1 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 4.31 | 4.10 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 134 | 594 | 116 | 60 | 15 | 67% | 4.1 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.17 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 161 | 678 | 126 | 65 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 4.24 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 161 | 678 | 126 | 65 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 197 | 838 | 151 | 76 | 23 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 4.32 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 197 | 838 | 151 | 76 | 23 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 4.24 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 7 | 42 | 172 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 3.00 | 3.64 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 7 | 42 | 172 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.00 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 33 | 33 | 206 | 837 | 201 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 3.26 | +5.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 33 | 33 | 206 | 837 | 201 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 18.3% | 2.5% | 3.19 | 3.17 | +5.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 229 | 886 | 207 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 7.1 | 23.4% | 5.5% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 2.28 | 2.88 | +6.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 229 | 886 | 207 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 7.1 | 23.4% | 5.5% | 17.8% | 1.8% | 2.28 | 2.84 | +6.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 189 | 775 | 155 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 19.8% | 6.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 3.90 | +3.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 189 | 775 | 155 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.0% | 6.2% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.74 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 175 | 745 | 142 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 4.17 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 175 | 745 | 142 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 4.09 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 20 | 20 | 131 | 543 | 100 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.4% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 3.63 | +2.7 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 74 | 314 | 60 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.8 | 19.0% | 6.6% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 74 | 312 | 59 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.0% | 6.6% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 205 | 857 | 160 | 54 | 22 | — | — | 18.6% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 3.70 | +4.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 205 | 866 | 160 | 54 | 21 | — | — | 18.5% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.68 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 159 | 673 | 124 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 147 | 622 | 110 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 135 | 571 | 96 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.96 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 124 | 47 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 110 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.63 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 96 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 272 | 1722 | 7148 | 1421 | 513 | 192 | 97% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.81 | +32.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 32 | 200 | 830 | 165 | 60 | 22 | 97% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 280 | 269 | 1649 | 6868 | 1350 | 551 | 163 | 96% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +31.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 833 | 164 | 67 | 20 | 96% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sandy Alcantara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.67 | 17.7% | 10.3% | 442 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 57 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 56 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 55 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 55 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 55 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 55 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 54 |
| Toru Murata R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.86 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .261 | 3.55 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.31 | 3.55 | 267 | 54 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 54 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 53 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 53 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.39 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.71 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.32 | 4.39 | 474 | 53 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 52 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.67 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 3.81 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 252 | +0.14 | 3.55 | 515 | 52 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | .295 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.06 | 3.06 | 1,275 | 52 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.70 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.64 | 3.70 | 240 | 52 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 52 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 51 |
| Nate Long R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 51 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.46 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.0% | .310 | 5.09 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 155 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 153 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.23 | 4.55 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Jason Hammel ('18) | 4 | 161 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 1.28 | 4.65 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |