Winston Santos

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	110	3.67	2.82	30.1%	7.4%	—	K 23.6% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.67
2025	23	MIX2 levels	6	6	17	6.75	1.31	33.3%	9.0%	—	K 28.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 1.82
2026	24	MIX3 levels	26	19	85	6.86	4.66	26.5%	10.2%	0.7	K 22.3% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	15	15	86	4.66	4.66	23.3%	9.6%	0.7
2028PROJ79% MLB	26	MLBTEX	17	17	103	4.74	4.73	23.4%	9.4%	1.0
2029PROJ85% MLB	27	MLBTEX	16	16	95	4.73	4.74	23.2%	9.4%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Ext$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Dylan DeLucia (age 23) · Matt Wise (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%23.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$16M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	1.0%	3.27	3.19	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.7%	3.27	2.13	—
2022	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	17.8%	7.9%	9.9%	2.5%	3.49	3.99	—
2022	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	24.1%	6.7%	17.4%	1.8%	3.49	2.90	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	15.3%	6.8%	8.6%	5.7%	6.29	5.77	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	4.3%	6.29	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.7%	2.4%	3.67	2.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	33.3%	9.0%	24.4%	0.0%	6.75	1.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	4.8%	6.86	5.17	+0.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	4.8%	6.86	5.17	+0.2
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	4.3%	6.86	4.66	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	9.00	10.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	15	15	86	363	85	35	13	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.6%	13.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.66	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	550	128	52	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.60	4.59	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	111	470	109	44	16	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.59	4.60	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	104	441	102	42	16	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.63	4.67	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	97	409	93	39	15	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.7%	4.72	4.79	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	88	371	83	37	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.87	4.97	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	78	331	73	34	14	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.3%	11.8%	4.1%	5.05	5.17	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	103	435	102	41	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.74	4.73	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	95	401	93	38	15	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.73	4.74	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	93	393	91	37	15	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	3.8%	4.78	4.82	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	88	372	85	36	15	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.0%	4.87	4.94	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	77	34	14	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.2%	5.03	5.13	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	68	32	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.3%	11.8%	4.4%	5.22	5.34	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	89	535	2260	516	218	90	99%	5.9	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.0%	4.89	4.57	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	845	193	81	34	99%	6.0	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.0%	4.89	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		112	97	453	1954	390	162	69	87%	4.0	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.6%	4.89	4.41	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	863	172	72	31	87%	4.0	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.6%	4.89	4.41	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 42 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.89 (+1.15)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.15%	—	×0.810	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.55%	—	×1.100	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	5.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 41 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.40 (+0.34)K% 24.3% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.860	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×0.900	8.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 14 IPFIP 1.16 → 1.82 (+0.66)K% 34.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.92%	—	×0.810	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.100	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.16 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 64 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.98 (+0.88)K% 30.5% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.45%	—	×0.770	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.150	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.13%	÷1.014	×1.250	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 46 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.62 (+0.82)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.53%	—	×0.810	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.100	7.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.15%	÷1.080	×1.200	4.60%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 99 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.77 (+1.25)K% 19.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.91%	—	×0.770	15.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.150	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	4.30%	÷0.948	×1.250	5.67%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 108 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.99 (+1.10)K% 24.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.11%	—	×0.740	17.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.180	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.912	×1.300	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rangers · 33 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.19 (+1.09)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.680	18.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.72%	—	×1.250	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.015	×1.400	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winston Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.62	23.2%	13.8%	346	-0.04	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	74
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	73
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	73
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	73
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	72
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	71
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	70
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	70
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	70
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	70
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	69
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	69
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	69
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	22.9%	9.6%	1.41	4.72
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Buzz Capra ('71-'77, 4 WAR*)	2.7	109	22.1%*	10.5%*	1.51*	4.21*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Ron Schueler ('72-'79, 3 WAR*)	4.6	130	21.0%*	9.8%*	1.41*	4.51*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86