Winston Santos — OGILVIE

Winston Santos P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%24.0%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$33M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	1.0%	3.27	3.19	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.7%	3.27	2.13	—
2022	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	17.8%	7.9%	9.9%	2.5%	3.49	3.99	—
2022	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	24.1%	6.7%	17.4%	1.8%	3.49	2.90	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	15.3%	6.8%	8.6%	5.7%	6.29	5.77	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	15.3%	6.8%	8.6%	5.7%	6.29	5.77	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	4.3%	6.29	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.7%	2.4%	3.67	2.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	33.3%	9.0%	24.4%	0.0%	6.75	1.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	9.00	10.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	25	18	84	383	102	39	17	72%	3.3	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	5.0%	6.67	5.26	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	25	18	84	383	102	39	17	72%	3.3	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	5.0%	6.67	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TEX	11	11	42	199	58	21	10	100%	3.8	29.1%	10.6%	18.6%	5.0%	7.44	4.73	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TEX	13	7	39	175	43	17	6	54%	3.0	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	3.4%	5.72	4.14	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	TEX	1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	9.00	9.67	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	TEX	1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	9.00	9.67	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	8	3	1	100%	7.6	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.0%	4.09	4.09	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	8	34	8	3	1	100%	8.0	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.2%	4.21	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	91	415	110	42	18	—	—	26.4%	10.0%	16.4%	4.3%	6.45	5.17	-0.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	10	40	110	42	18	—	—	271.1%	102.7%	168.4%	44.5%	61.56	17.66	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	118	500	121	39	15	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.04	+1.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	551	134	43	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.5%	3.0%	4.06	4.04	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	128	543	131	42	16	100%	6.1	24.1%	7.8%	16.3%	3.0%	4.08	4.08	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	125	526	126	42	16	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.0%	16.0%	3.1%	4.14	4.17	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	119	502	119	41	16	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.3%	4.24	4.30	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	112	472	110	40	16	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.38	4.48	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	104	440	101	39	16	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.7%	4.56	4.68	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	96	407	92	38	16	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	3.9%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	88	374	82	36	16	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	4.2%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	113	477	115	37	15	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.2%	4.19	4.16	+1.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	124	524	127	41	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.5%	3.2%	4.18	4.16	+1.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	122	515	124	40	17	100%	6.1	24.1%	7.8%	16.3%	3.2%	4.20	4.20	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	118	498	119	40	17	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.0%	16.0%	3.3%	4.27	4.30	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	113	477	113	39	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.5%	4.37	4.43	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	106	448	104	38	17	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	3.7%	4.52	4.62	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	99	418	96	37	17	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	4.0%	4.71	4.83	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	87	36	16	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	4.2%	4.93	5.07	-0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	84	355	78	34	16	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	4.5%	5.17	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	164	981	4142	973	346	149	99%	5.9	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	3.6%	4.47	4.15	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	845	198	71	30	99%	5.9	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	3.6%	4.47	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		111	96	451	1944	387	161	69	86%	4.1	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.43	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	861	172	71	31	86%	4.1	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.43	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winston Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	24.0%	8.0%	3.0%	—	4.05	24.2%	16.4%	378	-0.04	—	—	—
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	89
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	87
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	87
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	85
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	82
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	81
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	81
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	80
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	79
Mitch White R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	22.7%	8.3%	4.4%	.309	3.53	20.9%	12.9%	194	-1.11	2.49	626	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	79
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	79
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	110	23.6%	8.3%	1.28	4.31
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01