Winston Santos — OGILVIE

Winston Santos P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%24.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	1.0%	3.27	3.18	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.7%	3.27	2.13	—
2022	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	17.8%	7.9%	9.9%	2.8%	3.49	4.14	—
2022	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	24.1%	6.7%	17.4%	1.8%	3.49	2.90	—
2023	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	15.3%	6.8%	8.6%	6.0%	6.29	5.96	—
2023	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	4.3%	6.29	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.6%	3.67	3.59	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.7%	2.4%	3.67	2.82	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	33.3%	9.0%	24.4%	0.0%	6.75	1.31	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	14	11	50	237	66	26	13	79%	3.6	23.6%	11.6%	12.0%	6.0%	7.69	5.89	-0.8
ROS	24	MLB	TEX	10	10	58	247	59	20	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.1%	15.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.09	+0.3
ROS	24	MLB	TEX	10	10	58	245	59	20	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.1%	15.9%	3.0%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
2026 TOT	24	MLB	TEX	—	—	109	484	125	46	20	—	—	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	4.2%	5.75	4.92	+0.6
2026 FULL	24	MLB	TEX	—	—	60	255	125	46	20	—	—	49.1%	18.0%	31.1%	8.0%	10.37	5.61	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TEX	19	19	109	461	111	36	14	100%	5.7	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	2.9%	4.07	4.05	+1.7
2028	26	MLB	TEX	20	20	121	511	124	40	15	100%	6.1	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	2.9%	4.06	4.04	+1.9
2029	27	MLB	TEX	20	20	119	504	121	40	15	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.09	+1.8
2030	28	MLB	TEX	19	19	116	489	117	39	15	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	3.1%	4.14	4.18	+1.7
2031	29	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	467	111	39	15	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.24	4.31	+1.4
2032	30	MLB	TEX	17	17	104	439	102	38	15	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.6%	14.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.49	+1.1
2033	31	MLB	TEX	16	16	97	409	94	37	15	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.7%	4.57	4.69	+0.7
2034	32	MLB	TEX	15	15	90	378	85	35	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	3.9%	4.78	4.91	+0.3
2035	33	MLB	TEX	14	14	82	347	76	34	15	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	4.2%	5.01	5.16	-0.1
2036	34	MLB	TEX	12	12	75	316	74	30	14	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.5%	14.0%	4.5%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	TEX	18	18	104	439	106	35	13	100%	5.8	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.09	4.07	+1.6
2028	26	MLB	TEX	19	19	115	486	118	38	14	100%	6.1	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.0%	4.08	4.06	+1.8
2029	27	MLB	TEX	19	19	113	477	115	38	14	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.10	4.11	+1.7
2030	28	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	464	111	37	15	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	3.1%	4.16	4.20	+1.5
2031	29	MLB	TEX	18	18	105	443	105	37	15	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.26	4.33	+1.3
2032	30	MLB	TEX	16	16	99	418	98	36	15	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.6%	14.8%	3.5%	4.41	4.51	+1.0
2033	31	MLB	TEX	15	15	92	388	89	35	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.7%	4.60	4.72	+0.6
2034	32	MLB	TEX	14	14	85	359	81	34	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	4.0%	4.81	4.94	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	TEX	13	13	78	329	72	32	14	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	4.2%	5.04	5.19	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	TEX	11	11	68	287	67	27	13	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.5%	14.0%	4.5%	5.13	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			176	175	1029	4346	1022	369	150	99%	5.8	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.4%	4.40	4.08	+15.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	845	199	72	29	99%	5.9	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.4%	4.40	4.08	+3.1
Career	—			100	89	418	1798	359	149	67	89%	4.2	20.0%	8.3%	11.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.50	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			48	43	200	860	172	71	32	89%	4.2	20.0%	8.3%	11.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.50	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winston Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	24.0%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.06	24.2%	16.3%	350	-0.03	—	—	—
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	86
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	85
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	83
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	82
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	82
Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	24	SP	3.18	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.78	20.9%	13.1%	225	+0.60	3.18	256	81
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SP	3.59	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.20	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.39	2.15	702	80
Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	177	79
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	79
James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP-	3.53	19.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.310	4.16	22.1%	13.7%	194	+0.63	3.53	352	79
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.261	4.28	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.36	3.41	368	78
Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	19.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.311	6.73	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.92	3.81	106	78
Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	78
Mitch White R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	22.7%	8.3%	4.3%	.309	3.59	20.9%	12.9%	194	-0.99	2.49	626	78
Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP	5.06	23.6%	10.4%	4.8%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	258	78
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	78
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP-	4.53	19.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.278	5.41	19.6%	8.0%	66	+0.88	3.96	260	77
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	99	23.5%	8.5%	1.31	4.37
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Daniel Norris ('22)	8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65