Winston Santos
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.7%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 6 | 33 | 134 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 3.27 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 22 | 21 | 108 | 448 | 108 | 30 | 8 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.96 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 25 | 23 | 99 | 442 | 88 | 26 | 19 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.29 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 22 | 22 | 110 | 459 | 138 | 34 | 11 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.66 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 6 | 17 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 28.3% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 1.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 2 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 17 | — | 17 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 23 | 103 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 6.40 | 3.24 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 16 | 5 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 88 | 80 | 373 | 1591 | 310 | 125 | 53 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.27 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 43 | 200 | 853 | 166 | 67 | 28 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Winston Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 23.8% | 15.3% | 132 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 91 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 90 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 89 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 87 |
| Jarod Bayless R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.90 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .250 | 4.52 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 100 | +0.62 | 1.29 | 217 | 86 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 86 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 86 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 86 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 85 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 85 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 85 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.99 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.24 | 3.75 | 198 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 84 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 84 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 84 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .175 | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 195 | -0.11 | 3.66 | 242 | 83 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||