Shane McCarthy — OGILVIE

Shane McCarthy P Akron RubberDucks

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%21.6%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	9	0	20	81	20	2	0	0%	2.2	16.8%	3.1%	13.7%	0.0%	1.35	2.07	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	9	0	20	81	20	2	0	0%	2.2	24.7%	2.5%	22.2%	0.0%	1.35	1.40	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	62	251	76	22	4	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.5%	3.34	3.94	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	62	251	76	22	4	100%	4.1	30.3%	8.8%	21.5%	1.6%	3.34	2.55	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	7	7	29	120	28	13	4	100%	4.1	18.9%	11.9%	7.0%	4.5%	5.02	5.47	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	7	7	29	120	28	13	4	100%	4.1	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	3.3%	5.02	4.32	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	9	0	18	85	15	8	6	0%	2.0	14.3%	10.4%	3.9%	9.3%	6.38	8.32	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	9	0	18	85	15	8	6	0%	2.0	14.3%	10.4%	3.9%	9.3%	6.38	8.32	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	9	0	18	85	15	8	6	0%	2.0	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	7.1%	6.38	7.03	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CLE	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CLE	3	3	20	84	18	8	3	100%	6.7	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.74	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	CLE	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	6	26	6	3	1	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	96	32	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		40	22	129	537	103	51	20	55%	3.2	19.1%	9.5%	9.6%	3.7%	3.84	4.70	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	34	200	833	159	79	30	55%	3.2	19.1%	9.5%	9.6%	3.7%	3.84	4.70	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane McCarthy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.6%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.74	21.3%	11.6%	20	+0.17	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	68
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	68
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	66
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	65
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	65
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	63
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	63
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	63
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	63
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	62
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	62
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	62
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	62
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	61
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	61
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	60
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	60