Shane McCarthy
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 81 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 16.8% | 3.1% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.07 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 81 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 24.7% | 2.5% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 1.40 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 62 | 251 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 3.34 | 3.96 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 62 | 251 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 30.3% | 8.8% | 21.5% | 1.6% | 3.34 | 2.55 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 7 | 7 | 29 | 120 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.02 | 5.81 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 7 | 7 | 29 | 120 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 9 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 10.4% | 6.38 | 8.89 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 9 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.38 | 7.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 22 | 129 | 537 | 103 | 51 | 21 | 55% | 3.2 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 3.84 | 4.87 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 34 | 200 | 833 | 159 | 79 | 33 | 55% | 3.2 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 3.84 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane McCarthy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.62 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 69 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 66 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 66 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 63 |
| Chris Mazza R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.90 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .348 | 3.84 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 111 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 563 | 63 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 62 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 61 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 61 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 60 |
| Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.48 | 20.8% | 1.9% | 21 | +0.27 | 2.28 | 446 | 60 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 60 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 59 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 59 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 59 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 59 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 59 |