Welbyn Francisca
SS Lake County Captains| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 333 | .326/.411/.474 | 7 | 19 | 98 | — | .273/.336/.392 |
| 2025 | 19 | ALynchburg Hil… | 428 | .229/.324/.302 | 3 | 45 | 47 | — | .195/.270/.255 |
| 2026 | 20 | AA/A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 398 | .293/.388/.540 | 21 | 19 | 114 | — | .228/.305/.423 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBCLE | 1 | .222/.293/.349 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBCLE | 145 | .227/.299/.363 | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBCLE | 246 | .230/.303/.373 | 7 | 8 | 91 | 0.6 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 179 | 152 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 35 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 316 | 419 | 500 | 919 | 184 | 395 | 20 | 13 | 407 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 132 | 117 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 325 | 402 | 402 | 803 | 77 | 416 | 20 | 11 | 366 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 201 | 174 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 328 | 418 | 523 | 941 | 195 | 357 | 12 | 12 | 416 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 371 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 73 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 229 | 324 | 302 | 626 | 73 | 273 | 17 | 12 | 289 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 450 | 783 | 150 | 455 | 38 | 5 | 348 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 289 | 253 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 17 | 32 | 64 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 277 | 360 | 538 | 898 | 261 | 303 | 22 | 11 | 388 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 37 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 459 | 320 | 779 | 120 | 286 | 27 | 30 | 381 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 51 | 43 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 442 | 520 | 721 | 1.241 | 279 | 500 | 16 | 14 | 523 | 240 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 179 | 159 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 201 | 291 | 302 | 592 | 101 | 258 | 24 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 132 | 121 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 281 | 341 | 347 | 688 | 66 | 400 | 28 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 201 | 183 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 36 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 268 | 333 | 421 | 754 | 153 | 303 | 18 | 8 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 384 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 100 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 195 | 270 | 255 | 525 | 60 | 249 | 23 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 21 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 286 | 400 | 686 | 150 | 455 | 48 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 289 | 261 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 81 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 304 | 448 | 752 | 211 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 37 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 138 | 324 | 241 | 566 | 103 | 229 | 38 | 19 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 179 | 159 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 201 | 291 | 302 | 592 | 101 | 270 | 24 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 179 | 152 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 35 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 316 | 419 | 500 | 919 | 184 | 395 | 20 | 13 | 407 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 304 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 74 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 273 | 336 | 391 | 728 | 118 | 344 | 22 | 8 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 333 | 291 | 95 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 52 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 326 | 411 | 474 | 886 | 148 | 379 | 16 | 12 | 396 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 384 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 100 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 195 | 270 | 255 | 525 | 60 | 254 | 23 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 371 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 73 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 229 | 324 | 302 | 626 | 73 | 273 | 17 | 12 | 289 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 398 | 356 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 225 | 299 | 407 | 707 | 183 | 284 | 30 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 398 | 341 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 51 | 90 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 293 | 388 | 540 | 928 | 246 | 338 | 23 | 13 | 402 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 179 | 157 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 204 | 291 | 306 | 596 | 102 | 258 | 24 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 301 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 74 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 276 | 336 | 395 | 732 | 120 | 341 | 22 | 8 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 386 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 100 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 194 | 270 | 254 | 523 | 60 | 249 | 23 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 398 | 357 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 224 | 299 | 406 | 706 | 182 | 280 | 30 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 301 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 74 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 276 | 336 | 395 | 732 | 120 | 341 | 22 | 8 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 428 | 386 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 100 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 194 | 270 | 254 | 523 | 60 | 249 | 23 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 398 | 357 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 224 | 299 | 406 | 706 | 182 | 280 | 30 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 457 | 412 | 91 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 119 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 221 | 293 | 350 | 642 | 128 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 289 | 81 | -10 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | CLE | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 293 | 349 | 642 | 127 | 280 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 81 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | CLE | 43% | 334 | 300 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 84 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 226 | 299 | 364 | 663 | 137 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | CLE | 61% | 403 | 362 | 84 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 99 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 230 | 303 | 374 | 677 | 144 | 282 | 25 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 66% | 447 | 402 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 108 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 233 | 306 | 381 | 687 | 148 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 69% | 468 | 420 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 113 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 234 | 308 | 384 | 692 | 150 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 70% | 479 | 430 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 115 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 235 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 151 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +5 | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 69% | 480 | 430 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 116 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 233 | 308 | 383 | 691 | 149 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +5 | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 68% | 475 | 427 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 116 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 232 | 306 | 378 | 684 | 147 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 67% | 465 | 418 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 42 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 230 | 303 | 372 | 676 | 143 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | CLE | 66% | 452 | 407 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 113 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 300 | 365 | 665 | 138 | 280 | 25 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 65% | 436 | 392 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 111 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 295 | 356 | 651 | 133 | 277 | 25 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | CLE | 70% | 413 | 373 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 107 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 218 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 126 | 274 | 26 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -10 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | CLE | 43% | 145 | 130 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 299 | 363 | 662 | 137 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | CLE | 61% | 246 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 230 | 303 | 373 | 677 | 143 | 282 | 25 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 66% | 296 | 265 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 72 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 233 | 307 | 380 | 687 | 147 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 69% | 321 | 287 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 77 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 234 | 308 | 384 | 692 | 149 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 70% | 335 | 300 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 80 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 235 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 150 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 69% | 331 | 296 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 80 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 234 | 308 | 382 | 690 | 148 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 68% | 325 | 291 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 232 | 306 | 378 | 684 | 146 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -3 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 67% | 310 | 277 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 76 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 230 | 304 | 372 | 676 | 142 | 282 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | CLE | 66% | 297 | 267 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 74 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 300 | 365 | 665 | 138 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 65% | 284 | 256 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 72 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 132 | 278 | 25 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | CLE | 70% | 291 | 263 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 218 | 290 | 343 | 633 | 125 | 274 | 26 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3181 | 2853 | 657 | 115 | 10 | 91 | 285 | 782 | 17 | 71 | 19 | 230 | 304 | 373 | 677 | 143 | 284 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 87 | -36 | +7 | -5 | +34 | +69 | 7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 134 | 23 | 2 | 19 | 58 | 160 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 230 | 302 | 374 | 676 | 144 | 283 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 87 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6400 | 5753 | 1310 | 222 | 28 | 169 | 569 | 1590 | 34 | 212 | 60 | 228 | 301 | 364 | 665 | 136 | 283 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -60 | +11 | -8 | +54 | +110 | 10.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 133 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 58 | 161 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 228 | 300 | 365 | 665 | 137 | 284 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Lake County Captains · 289 PAwOBA .381 → .317 (−64)K% 22.1% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 19.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 7.50% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .381 → .317; ISO .261 → .211; BABIP .303 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Guardians · 37 PAwOBA .374 → .261 (−113)K% 27.0% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 29.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 18.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 21.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 5.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .261; ISO .120 → .094; BABIP .286 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 21 PAwOBA .338 → .279 (−58)K% 38.1% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 42.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 6.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .279; ISO .150 → .108; BABIP .455 → .455. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 428 PAwOBA .285 → .238 (−47)K% 17.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.06% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.92% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.70% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.184 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .285 → .238; ISO .073 → .061; BABIP .273 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Guardians · 201 PAwOBA .405 → .318 (−87)K% 12.4% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.44% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.44% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.83% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.03% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 3.26% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 87, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .405 → .318; ISO .195 → .152; BABIP .357 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 132 PAwOBA .357 → .307 (−50)K% 20.5% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.45% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.44% | ÷1.056 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 33.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .307; ISO .077 → .070; BABIP .416 → .400. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Guardians Blue · 179 PAwOBA .397 → .260 (−137)K% 19.6% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.41% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.917 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.997 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 3.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.035 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 99, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .397 → .260; ISO .184 → .104; BABIP .395 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .