Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Nacho Alvarez Jr.SS Gwinnett Stripers

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION169 act + 129 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 1430vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .289 / .304

PA129

HR2

K%22

BB%8

BABIP259

ISO96

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

748.5%

xwOBA

100.262

POWER30

Barrel%

101.2

Avg EV

1084.8

Bat Spd

1667.7

EYE55

Chase%

6428.9%

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 231 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

176

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

207

282

▶▶R

ISO

043

099

▶▶R

BABIP

206

308

▶▶R

25.4%

22.7%

▶R

BB%

9.1%

4.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2029	Arb-4	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.7M		$1M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	122	104	28	3	2	1	16	19	2	8	1	269	377	365	742	96	321	16	13	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	122	94	27	3	2	1	26	15	2	8	1	287	451	394	844	106	333	12	21	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Rome Braves	—	501	445	110	20	0	5	40	120	13	16	5	247	327	326	653	79	325	24	8	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Rome Braves	—	501	419	119	24	0	7	66	87	13	16	5	284	398	391	789	107	341	17	13	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA	3 teams	—	523	468	118	15	2	9	44	115	10	26	3	252	330	350	680	98	316	22	8	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA	3 teams	—	523	446	121	15	2	10	66	93	10	26	3	271	377	381	759	110	323	18	13	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	3 teams	—	379	340	77	18	0	4	24	90	12	5	2	226	301	315	615	88	296	24	6	279	72	-12	+0	+2	+1	+11	0.2
2025	22	MLB	3 teams	—	379	325	84	22	1	4	39	77	12	5	2	258	359	369	728	111	327	20	10	332	112	+5	+0	+2	+1	+11	2.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	ATL	—	169	151	31	6	0	2	14	36	2	4	1	205	281	285	566	79	252	21	8	251	50	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
YTD	23	AAA	ATL	—	169	144	34	7	0	2	21	30	2	4	1	236	341	326	668	90	281	18	12	307	93	-1	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.5
ROS	23	AAA	ATL	55%	129	115	24	5	0	2	10	29	3	2	1	209	289	304	593	96	262	22	8	270	65	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	55%	71	65	14	3	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	215	282	308	589	92	262	23	7	255	54	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
FULL	23	AAA	ATL	—	240	216	45	9	0	3	19	52	3	5	1	208	282	292	573	83	258	22	8	252	51	-13	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.5
TOT	23	AAA	ATL	—	298	266	55	11	0	4	24	65	5	6	2	207	285	293	578	86	255	22	8	259	57	-15	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ATL	56%	567	507	108	21	1	9	44	126	11	9	2	213	290	312	602	99	262	22	8	274	68	-20	+1	+2	+2	+16	0.0
2028	25	MLB	ATL	56%	556	496	106	20	1	10	44	123	11	9	2	214	292	319	611	105	262	22	8	278	71	-18	+1	+2	+2	+16	0.2
2029	26	MLB	ATL	56%	544	485	104	20	1	10	43	120	11	8	2	214	293	322	615	107	262	22	8	280	73	-17	+1	+2	+2	+15	0.3
2030	27	MLB	ATL	55%	534	476	103	20	1	10	43	118	10	8	2	216	295	326	621	109	262	22	8	280	73	-16	+1	+2	+2	+15	0.3
2031	28	MLB	ATL	55%	523	465	99	19	1	9	43	117	10	8	2	213	293	316	610	103	262	22	8	280	72	-16	+1	+1	+2	+15	0.2
2032	29	MLB	ATL	58%	512	455	96	18	1	9	42	115	10	7	2	211	292	314	606	103	261	22	8	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.0
2027	24	MLB	ATL	56%	316	282	61	12	1	5	25	70	6	5	1	216	294	319	613	103	262	22	8	260	57	-15	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.4
2028	25	MLB	ATL	56%	312	278	59	11	1	5	25	69	6	5	1	212	291	313	604	101	262	22	8	264	60	-14	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.3
2029	26	MLB	ATL	56%	306	273	59	11	1	6	24	68	6	5	1	216	294	330	623	114	262	22	8	266	62	-13	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	ATL	55%	296	264	57	11	1	5	24	66	6	5	1	216	296	322	618	106	262	22	8	266	62	-13	+1	+1	+1	+8	-0.2
2031	28	MLB	ATL	55%	287	256	54	10	0	5	23	64	6	4	1	211	291	309	600	98	262	22	8	265	61	-13	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.3
2032	29	MLB	ATL	58%	297	265	56	11	0	5	24	67	6	4	1	211	292	309	601	98	261	23	8	264	60	-13	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2125	1901	407	81	4	34	162	479	44	29	6	214	291	315	606	100	267	23	8	264	60	-96	+3	+5	+10	+60	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	124	25	1	10	50	147	13	9	2	213	290	312	601	98	267	23	8	264	60	-29	+1	+2	+3	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	4890	4356	973	179	10	78	393	1092	103	106	24	223	303	323	626	99	279	22	8	283	75	-139	+12	+9	+17	+139	3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	129	24	1	10	52	145	14	14	3	223	302	320	622	97	279	22	8	283	75	-18	+2	+1	+2	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	71	51	15	2	1	0	19	9	1	4	1	294	493	373	866	78	357	13	27	409	171	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2022	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	51	43	12	1	1	1	7	6	1	4	0	279	392	419	811	140	306	12	14	368	139	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.5
2023	20	A+	Rome Braves	—	501	419	119	24	0	7	66	87	13	16	5	284	398	391	789	107	341	17	13	361	134	+19	+1	—	—	+14	3.5
2024	21	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	32	30	3	0	0	0	0	10	2	0	0	100	156	100	256		150	31	0	131	-42	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2024	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	289	246	73	9	1	10	37	45	5	10	2	297	399	463	863	167	328	16	13	386	153	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.7
2024	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	202	170	45	6	1	0	29	38	3	16	1	265	381	312	693	47	341	19	14	327	109	+2	+3	—	—	+6	1.1
2025	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	208	188	44	12	0	2	12	49	5	0	0	234	298	330	627	96	304	24	6	283	74	-6	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.3
2025	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	79	63	16	3	0	1	11	15	5	0	1	254	405	349	754	95	319	19	14	356	131	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2025	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	92	74	24	7	1	1	16	13	2	5	1	324	457	486	943	162	383	14	17	423	182	+8	+1	—	—	+3	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	240	218	47	12	0	2	12	59	7	0	0	216	278	298	577	83	285	25	5	262	59	-11	+0	+1	+3	+7	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,186	36	30	216	290	319	+21	+4	1.5	1.5
	/162	664	11	9	216	290	319	+6.3	+1.2	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nacho Alvarez Jr. (OGILVIE)	23	45	30	45	55	207/285/293	86	255	4	6	22%	8%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angelo Amendolare 2016 · AAA	23	47	37→30	44→50	51	220/293/292	73	263	4	7	18%	8%	66	-0.6	228/299/298	70	312	3	9	26%	8%	69	-0.4	241/317/283	43	341	0	10	26%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Francisco Williams 2015 · AAA	23	47	40→30	46→45	44	227/287/320	93	294	7	9	24%	6%	69	-0.4	223/280/293	70	304	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.1	220/263/257	36	295	4	6	26%	4%	38	-0.6
✕Jordan Groshans 2023 · MLB	23	48	40→45	48→30	49	230/296/319	89	290	7	4	22%	8%	73	-0.1	217/278/295	78	271	6	3	21%	8%	59	-1.1	209/267/324	114	250	14	0	22%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Onix Vega 2023 · AAA	24	46	38→30	47→45	46	218/292/299	80	295	6	7	26%	8%	67	-0.5	203/277/273	70	267	5	6	24%	8%	53	-1.5	185/267/230	45	240	3	5	22%	9%	38	-0.9
✕Luis Porchas 2013 · AAA	23	48	40→30	44→50	42	231/283/319	88	288	8	11	22%	5%	67	-0.5	230/273/313	83	299	8	10	25%	4%	61	-1.0	228/270/284	56	304	4	9	25%	4%	48	-0.5
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2015 · AAA	23	46	42→40	47→30	40	227/260/330	103	272	10	6	21%	4%	60	-1.0	245/281/325	80	282	6	5	15%	4%	67	-0.5	255/292/302	47	285	3	1	11%	3%	62	-0.3
✕Noe Becerra 2010 · AAA	23	44	39→30	43→40	48	213/275/293	80	267	7	7	23%	8%	57	-1.2	232/280/318	86	272	7	7	17%	6%	66	-0.6	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Ramon Soto 2010 · AAA	22	48	39→30	46→45	43	231/277/308	77	286	7	9	22%	5%	62	-0.9	240/283/305	65	292	4	8	18%	5%	63	-0.9	273/316/327	54	334	2	7	18%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Nick Allen 2023 · MLB	24	44→54	41→40	47→50	46	217/271/312	96	266	9	13	22%	6%	60	-1.0	237/296/325	88	282	8	16	18%	7%	74	-0.1	242/303/316	74	289	6	16	17%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Jonathan Esqueda 2008 · AAA	23	49	38→30	47→45	43	236/288/309	73	296	6	9	22%	6%	66	-0.6	219/270/317	98	279	9	9	24%	6%	62	-0.9	204/255/299	94	260	9	7	24%	6%	48	-0.5
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2023 · AAA	24	48	40	50→45	43	232/275/316	84	280	8	9	20%	5%	63	-0.9	225/289/330	105	253	11	7	15%	7%	73	-0.1	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Alejandro Rivero 2012 · AAA	23	46	38→30	46→55	45	222/268/297	75	260	6	9	17%	5%	55	-1.4	228/273/275	47	269	3	14	16%	4%	51	-1.7	224/280/260	36	256	2	19	13%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Tucupita Marcano 2023 · MLB	23	46	42→45	45→50	48	224/282/327	103	275	9	11	22%	8%	69	-0.4	235/286/360	125	283	10	13	20%	6%	79	+0.3	250/292/385	135	292	8	17	17%	4%	85	+0.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2022 · MLB	23	44→53	43→45	47→55	45	219/280/332	114	282	11	8	26%	7%	70	-0.3	229/301/321	92	296	7	9	23%	9%	76	+0.1	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Jasson Atondo 2019 · AAA	23	45→55	40→30	45→50	45	219/265/314	94	262	8	11	19%	6%	58	-1.2	280/312/358	78	313	6	12	12%	5%	89	+0.9	319/347/375	57	352	3	11	10%	4%	102	+1.5
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	43→45	41→45	44→45	44	214/271/309	96	275	9	7	25%	6%	60	-1.0	223/277/326	103	287	9	7	24%	6%	67	-0.5	242/291/349	107	304	9	4	22%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Miguel Torrero 2007 · AAA	23	46→47	39→30	46→40	45	221/265/306	85	255	7	10	17%	5%	56	-1.3	269/318/329	60	300	2	6	10%	6%	84	+0.6	288/340/336	48	318	0	2	9%	6%	92	+0.5
✕Ray Chang 2007 · AAA	23	43→53	42→40	45→40	43	212/271/315	103	278	9	5	27%	6%	62	-0.9	227/282/325	98	284	6	4	21%	5%	69	-0.4	252/310/344	92	296	6	1	16%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Colton Welker 2021 · AA	23	43→53	41→40	47→45	41	214/256/312	98	276	9	5	26%	5%	54	-1.4	210/282/313	103	278	10	6	26%	8%	66	-0.6	190/284/260	70	260	6	3	27%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Oswaldo Navarro 2008 · AAA	23	46→50	37→40	41→45	44	221/274/292	72	276	5	7	22%	6%	56	-1.3	220/278/288	68	293	4	6	24%	6%	57	-1.2	213/279/293	80	273	6	3	23%	7%	57	-0.6