Nacho Alvarez Jr.
3B Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 491 | .284/.392/.401 | 10 | 26 | 101 | — | .268/.349/.367 |
| 2024 | 21 | MLBATL | 32 | .100/.156/.100 | 0 | 0 | -25 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 171 | .292/.433/.423 | 2 | 5 | 130 | — | .224/.342/.299 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLBATL | 208 | .234/.298/.330 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 0.2 | |
| 2026 | 23 | AAAATL | 169 | .236/.341/.326 | 2 | 4 | 61 | — | .213/.293/.293 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 24 | MLBATL | 61 | .217/.296/.314 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 25 | MLBATL | 121 | .219/.298/.321 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ54% MLB | 26 | MLBATL | 158 | .219/.299/.323 | 3 | 3 | 78 | 0.0 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 71 | 51 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 294 | 493 | 373 | 866 | 78 | 357 | 13 | 27 | 409 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 51 | 43 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 279 | 392 | 419 | 811 | 140 | 306 | 12 | 14 | 368 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 501 | 419 | 119 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 66 | 87 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 284 | 398 | 391 | 789 | 107 | 341 | 17 | 13 | 361 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | — | 32 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 156 | 100 | 256 | 150 | 31 | 0 | 131 | -25 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 289 | 246 | 73 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 45 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 297 | 399 | 463 | 863 | 167 | 328 | 16 | 13 | 386 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 202 | 170 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 38 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 265 | 381 | 312 | 693 | 47 | 341 | 19 | 14 | 327 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | — | 208 | 188 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 298 | 330 | 627 | 96 | 304 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 79 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 254 | 405 | 349 | 754 | 95 | 319 | 19 | 14 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 92 | 74 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 324 | 457 | 486 | 943 | 162 | 383 | 14 | 17 | 423 | 172 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 144 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 341 | 326 | 668 | 90 | 281 | 18 | 12 | 307 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 240 | 218 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 278 | 298 | 577 | 83 | 285 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 64 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 71 | 56 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 286 | 437 | 357 | 794 | 71 | 356 | 17 | 20 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 51 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 314 | 370 | 683 | 130 | 247 | 16 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 501 | 446 | 109 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 116 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 244 | 323 | 330 | 653 | 85 | 309 | 23 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MLB MLE | Atlanta Braves | — | 32 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 156 | 100 | 256 | 150 | 31 | 0 | 131 | -25 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 289 | 257 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 276 | 354 | 409 | 763 | 132 | 324 | 19 | 9 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 202 | 179 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 257 | 342 | 307 | 649 | 50 | 339 | 22 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | Atlanta Braves | — | 208 | 188 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 298 | 330 | 627 | 96 | 304 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 79 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 342 | 299 | 640 | 75 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 293 | 587 | 80 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 102 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 265 | 385 | 363 | 748 | 98 | 321 | 16 | 15 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 122 | 94 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 287 | 451 | 394 | 844 | 106 | 333 | 12 | 21 | 392 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 501 | 446 | 109 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 116 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 244 | 323 | 330 | 653 | 85 | 315 | 23 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Rome Braves | — | 501 | 419 | 119 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 66 | 87 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 284 | 398 | 391 | 789 | 107 | 341 | 17 | 13 | 361 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 466 | 120 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 258 | 337 | 350 | 687 | 92 | 322 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 523 | 446 | 121 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 66 | 93 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 271 | 377 | 381 | 759 | 110 | 323 | 18 | 13 | 348 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 339 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 89 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 306 | 322 | 627 | 91 | 300 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 379 | 325 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 77 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 258 | 359 | 369 | 728 | 111 | 327 | 20 | 10 | 332 | 79 | -10 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 293 | 587 | 80 | 263 | 21 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 144 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 341 | 326 | 668 | 90 | 281 | 18 | 12 | 307 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 101 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 267 | 385 | 366 | 752 | 99 | 310 | 16 | 15 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 501 | 444 | 109 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 116 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 245 | 323 | 331 | 654 | 86 | 309 | 23 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 462 | 120 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 260 | 337 | 353 | 690 | 93 | 319 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 339 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 89 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 306 | 322 | 627 | 91 | 300 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 293 | 587 | 80 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 462 | 120 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 260 | 337 | 353 | 690 | 93 | 319 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 339 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 89 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 306 | 322 | 627 | 91 | 300 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 169 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 293 | 587 | 80 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | ATL | 45% | 219 | 195 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 48 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 296 | 314 | 611 | 97 | 268 | 22 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | ATL | 45% | 61 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 296 | 314 | 611 | 97 | 268 | 21 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | ATL | 51% | 237 | 212 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 298 | 321 | 619 | 102 | 269 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | ATL | 54% | 292 | 261 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 64 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 299 | 323 | 622 | 104 | 269 | 22 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | ATL | 54% | 305 | 271 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 67 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 218 | 298 | 321 | 618 | 103 | 268 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | ATL | 54% | 310 | 275 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 69 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 296 | 316 | 612 | 100 | 267 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 53% | 302 | 269 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 293 | 310 | 604 | 96 | 266 | 23 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 52% | 296 | 265 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 290 | 303 | 593 | 92 | 265 | 23 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | ATL | 51% | 121 | 108 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 298 | 321 | 619 | 102 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | ATL | 54% | 158 | 141 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 299 | 323 | 622 | 104 | 269 | 22 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | ATL | 54% | 165 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 298 | 321 | 618 | 103 | 268 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | ATL | 54% | 168 | 149 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 296 | 316 | 612 | 100 | 267 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 53% | 160 | 143 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 293 | 310 | 604 | 96 | 266 | 22 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 52% | 155 | 138 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 290 | 303 | 593 | 92 | 265 | 23 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1167 | 1044 | 223 | 45 | 0 | 17 | 89 | 263 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 214 | 290 | 306 | 596 | 92 | 267 | 23 | 8 | 276 | 80 | -38 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +25 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 124 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 50 | 146 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 213 | 290 | 303 | 593 | 90 | 267 | 22 | 8 | 276 | 80 | -21 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3572 | 3177 | 731 | 131 | 10 | 51 | 297 | 789 | 73 | 85 | 21 | 230 | 310 | 326 | 636 | 96 | 289 | 22 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -66 | +2 | +1 | +10 | +46 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 133 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 144 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 230 | 310 | 325 | 635 | 95 | 290 | 22 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 169 PAwOBA .301 → .258 (−43)K% 17.8% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.956 | ×1.050 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×1.050 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .301 → .258; ISO .090 → .073; BABIP .281 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 79 PAwOBA .348 → .290 (−58)K% 19.0% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.99% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.92% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 6.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 23.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .348 → .290; ISO .095 → .071; BABIP .319 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 289 PAwOBA .376 → .335 (−41)K% 15.6% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.57% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.46% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.37% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 26.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .376 → .335; ISO .167 → .134; BABIP .328 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMississippi Braves · 202 PAwOBA .320 → .292 (−28)K% 18.8% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.81% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.36% | ÷1.025 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 10.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.79% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.050 | 28.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.899 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×1.050 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.997 | ×0.880 | ×1.019 | ×1.050 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 99, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .320 → .292; ISO .047 → .050; BABIP .341 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Rome Braves · 501 PAwOBA .353 → .292 (−62)K% 17.4% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.37% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.97% | ÷1.045 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷0.977 | ×0.870 | ×1.005 | ×1.042 | 24.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | ×1.005 | ×1.042 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.022 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 117, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .353 → .292; ISO .107 → .093; BABIP .341 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 71 PAwOBA .401 → .360 (−41)K% 12.7% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.68% | ÷1.050 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.76% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 19.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 28.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.127 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 110, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .360; ISO .078 → .080; BABIP .357 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Braves · 51 PAwOBA .359 → .270 (−88)K% 11.8% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.050 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.73% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 20.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.120 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.99% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 124, 3B 103, K 110, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .270; ISO .140 → .102; BABIP .306 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .