Gilberto Celestino

CF Round Rock Express

Age 28 R/L 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAA/INTL2 orgs	302	.269/.351/.358	3	9	82	—	.256/.313/.324
2025	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	635	.286/.381/.388	10	35	98	—	.245/.312/.314
2026	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	241	.265/.351/.370	3	19	78	—	.254/.320/.346
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBTEX	16	.241/.309/.341	0	1	84	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBTEX	54	.239/.306/.334	1	1	82	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2022

Speed60

Avg EV26

xwOBA16

Barrel%11

CompsEd Lucas (age 28) · Levi Jordan (age 28) · Andruw Monasterio (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .309 / .341

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP310

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2022

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.216

POWER40

Barrel%

113.1

Avg EV

2687.3

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

6027.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	GCL Astros	—	230	191	49	12	4	2	33	39	2	15	3	257	372	393	764	136	305	17	14	342	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	261	235	63	10	2	4	22	59	1	10	2	268	333	379	712	111	339	23	8	318	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	117	109	29	4	1	1	6	16	1	8	2	266	310	349	659	83	301	14	5	295	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	33	30	9	4	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	300	344	433	777	133	333	12	6	335	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	503	450	124	24	3	10	48	81	4	14	8	276	351	409	759	133	317	16	10	341	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	62	59	8	3	0	2	3	14	0	0	0	136	177	288	466	153	140	23	5	207	26	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	211	183	53	13	0	5	24	43	4	4	0	290	384	443	827	153	356	20	11	372	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	96	84	21	5	0	2	11	24	1	0	1	250	344	381	725	131	328	25	11	330	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	INTL	Toros del Este	—	20	16	1	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	62	250	62	312		91	25	20	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	347	311	74	12	1	2	32	77	2	4	1	238	313	302	615	64	310	22	9	283	78	-9	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.1
2022	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	25	18	6	2	0	0	7	2	0	0	1	333	520	444	964	111	375	8	28	443	186	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	233	185	45	11	2	4	42	37	4	4	2	243	394	389	783	146	283	16	18	357	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	30	24	6	0	0	0	6	6	0	1	1	250	400	250	650		333	20	20	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	284	255	70	13	0	3	27	57	2	9	1	275	349	361	709	86	344	20	10	324	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	18	13	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	0	1	154	389	308	697	154	250	28	28	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	426	372	101	12	1	9	51	93	2	13	2	272	362	382	743	110	341	22	12	339	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Toros del Este	—	209	174	55	10	1	1	32	36	0	22	2	316	422	402	825	86	388	17	15	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	205	178	49	10	1	3	24	42	1	13	4	275	365	393	758	118	343	20	12	341	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	INTL	Toros del Este	—	36	33	7	1	0	0	2	6	1	6	1	212	278	242	520	30	259	17	6	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	409	370	82	15	1	4	35	91	2	4	1	222	292	300	592	78	284	22	9	272	70	-15	+0	-1	+3	+9	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	230	203	41	9	3	2	21	56	2	15	3	202	283	305	589	103	251	24	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	261	243	49	7	1	3	14	84	1	10	2	202	248	276	524	74	287	32	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	117	111	24	3	1	1	4	23	1	8	2	216	250	288	538	72	256	20	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	33	30	9	4	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	300	344	433	777	133	345	18	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	503	463	104	19	2	8	35	114	4	14	8	225	285	326	611	102	281	23	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	62	59	8	3	0	2	3	14	0	0	0	136	177	288	466	153	140	23	5	206	26	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	211	191	47	11	0	3	16	53	4	4	0	246	318	351	668	105	329	25	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	96	87	19	4	0	1	8	29	1	0	1	218	292	299	591	80	321	30	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	347	311	74	12	1	2	32	77	2	4	1	238	313	302	615	64	310	22	9	283	78	-9	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.1
2023	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	233	199	44	8	2	3	28	46	4	4	2	221	329	327	656	106	270	20	12	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	284	262	67	12	0	2	20	68	2	9	1	256	313	324	638	69	342	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	426	388	95	10	1	5	36	114	2	13	2	245	312	314	627	70	336	27	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	205	185	47	9	1	2	17	50	1	13	4	254	320	346	666	92	327	24	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	230	203	41	9	3	2	21	56	2	15	3	202	283	305	589	103	262	24	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	—	230	191	49	12	4	2	33	39	2	15	3	257	372	393	764	136	305	17	14	342	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	261	243	49	7	1	3	14	84	1	10	2	202	248	276	524	74	291	32	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	—	261	235	63	10	2	4	22	59	1	10	2	268	333	379	712	111	339	23	8	318	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	117	111	24	3	1	1	4	23	1	8	2	216	250	288	538	72	261	20	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	117	109	29	4	1	1	6	16	1	8	2	266	310	349	659	83	301	14	5	295	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	536	494	114	24	2	8	36	120	4	14	8	231	288	336	624	105	288	22	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	536	480	133	28	3	10	50	85	4	14	8	277	350	410	761	133	318	16	9	341	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	389	355	79	20	0	7	29	101	5	4	1	223	290	338	629	115	291	26	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	389	342	83	21	0	9	42	86	5	4	1	243	334	383	717	140	300	22	11	326	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	372	334	79	13	1	2	34	83	2	4	2	237	311	299	610	63	309	22	9	283	78	-10	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.1
2022	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	372	329	80	14	1	2	39	79	2	4	2	243	327	310	637	67	315	21	10	294	78	-10	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.1
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	263	225	50	9	3	3	32	52	4	5	3	222	330	329	658	107	275	20	12	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	263	209	51	11	2	4	48	43	4	5	3	244	395	373	768	129	288	16	18	353	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	302	279	72	13	0	2	21	73	2	9	2	258	315	326	641	68	343	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	302	268	72	15	0	3	32	62	2	9	2	269	351	358	709	90	340	21	11	325	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	635	577	143	15	2	8	53	170	2	35	4	248	313	322	636	75	337	27	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	635	546	156	22	2	10	83	129	2	35	4	286	381	388	770	103	357	20	13	350	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	217	54	10	1	2	20	59	2	19	5	249	318	332	650	83	331	24	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	241	211	56	11	1	3	26	48	2	19	5	265	351	370	721	104	329	20	11	327	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	230	205	41	9	3	2	21	56	2	15	3	200	283	302	586	102	251	24	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	261	244	49	7	1	3	14	84	1	10	2	201	248	275	523	74	287	32	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	117	111	24	3	1	1	4	23	1	8	2	216	250	288	538	72	256	20	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	536	491	114	24	2	8	36	120	4	14	8	232	288	338	626	106	285	22	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	389	352	79	20	0	7	29	101	5	4	1	224	290	341	631	116	295	26	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	372	333	79	13	1	2	34	83	2	4	2	237	311	300	611	63	310	22	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	263	225	50	9	3	3	32	52	4	5	3	222	330	329	658	107	270	20	12	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	302	276	72	13	0	2	21	73	2	9	2	261	315	330	644	69	342	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	635	575	143	15	2	8	53	170	2	35	4	249	313	323	637	75	336	27	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	217	54	10	1	2	20	59	2	19	5	249	318	332	650	83	327	24	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	302	276	72	13	0	2	21	73	2	9	2	261	315	330	644	69	342	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	635	575	143	15	2	8	53	170	2	35	4	249	313	323	637	75	336	27	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	217	54	10	1	2	20	59	2	19	5	249	318	332	650	83	327	24	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	10%	255	230	55	9	1	4	21	63	2	8	2	240	308	338	646	98	311	25	8	292	84	-5	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10%	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	241	309	341	649	100	310	25	6	293	84	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	27%	197	178	43	7	1	3	16	49	1	5	1	238	305	332	637	94	309	25	8	289	82	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	27%	54	50	12	2	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	239	306	334	640	96	309	24	7	290	82	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	463	420	94	17	1	5	39	104	2	5	1	224	293	305	598	81	286	22	8	274	74	-16	+1	-1	+3	+10	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	132	24	1	7	55	146	3	7	1	224	294	303	597	80	286	22	8	274	74	-22	+1	-2	+4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3701	3359	783	136	16	43	293	909	27	133	34	233	300	322	621	88	306	25	8	278	74	-22	+2	-2	+4	+17	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	138	24	3	8	51	160	5	23	6	234	300	325	626	92	306	25	8	278	74	-19	+1	-2	+3	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 205 PAwOBA .334 → .291 (−43)K% 20.5% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.49%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	24.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.10%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.46%
Singles /BIP	25.74%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	25.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.35%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	6.43%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.003	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	2.21%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .334 → .291; ISO .118 → .097; BABIP .343 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 426 PAwOBA .330 → .284 (−46)K% 21.8% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.83%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.97%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.36%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.45%
Singles /BIP	28.32%	÷0.975	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	28.86%
Doubles /BIP	4.30%	÷1.022	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	3.74%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷0.959	×0.970	×1.050	×1.018	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .330 → .284; ISO .110 → .077; BABIP .341 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 284 PAwOBA .316 → .286 (−30)K% 20.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.07%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.51%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.14%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.68%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.050	×1.033	27.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.57%	÷0.962	×0.830	×1.050	×1.033	6.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.02%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .316 → .286; ISO .086 → .070; BABIP .344 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 233 PAwOBA .351 → .299 (−52)K% 15.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.88%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	19.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.03%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×1.048	12.22%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.69%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷0.964	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	20.08%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷1.341	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	5.06%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷0.977	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .351 → .299; ISO .146 → .117; BABIP .283 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 211 PAwOBA .361 → .304 (−57)K% 20.4% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.38%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.90%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.71%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.87%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.012	×1.050	23.86%
Doubles /BIP	9.29%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.012	×1.050	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.012	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.34%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .361 → .304; ISO .153 → .115; BABIP .356 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 96 PAwOBA .322 → .277 (−45)K% 25.0% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	30.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.46%	÷0.950	×0.690	—	×1.042	8.67%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.92%
Singles /BIP	23.33%	÷0.989	×0.940	×1.030	×1.042	23.79%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.040	×0.870	×1.030	×1.042	7.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.908	×0.920	×1.030	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.104	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.45%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .322 → .277; ISO .131 → .101; BABIP .328 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 503 PAwOBA .332 → .272 (−61)K% 16.1% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.10%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	22.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.34%	÷0.960	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.92%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.64%
Singles /BIP	23.58%	÷1.007	×0.920	×0.965	×1.030	21.40%
Doubles /BIP	6.50%	÷0.976	×0.830	×0.965	×1.030	5.49%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.045	×0.910	×0.965	×1.030	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	2.71%	÷0.997	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.24%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 109, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .332 → .272; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 33 PAwOBA .336 → .333 (−3)K% 12.1% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.12%	÷0.939	×1.420	—	—	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.06%	÷1.019	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.23%	÷0.975	×0.920	—	×1.042	18.91%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷0.908	×0.960	—	×1.042	16.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.362	×0.880	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .336 → .333; ISO .133 → .144; BABIP .333 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Milt Cuyler'90-'98 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	10	77	233*	299*	338*	+1	+4	0.6	0.9
/162	664	4	33	+0.6	+1.9	0.3	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.7	479	5	6	226	293	307	+2	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	8	+2.4	-0.9	-0.1	pk7: -0
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gilberto Celestino (OGILVIE)	28	55	40	50	55	238/306/335	97	311	2	5	25%	8%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ed Lucas 2010 · AAA	28	49→55	42→45	53→50	48	240/302/349	109	295	10	17	22%	8%	85	+0.2	225/284/342	117	284	12	9	24%	7%	77	-0.3	250/299/321	71	322	5	3	23%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Levi Jordan 2024 · AAA	28	46→54	43→45	53→50	46	224/290/336	112	284	10	15	24%	7%	78	-0.3	228/287/334	106	281	9	16	22%	6%	76	-0.4	226/284/329	103	275	9	16	20%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Andruw Monasterio 2024 · MLB	27	51→54	42→45	51→55	50	244/319/351	107	314	9	16	24%	9%	93	+0.8	235/307/347	112	302	10	19	24%	9%	87	+0.4	225/295/341	116	286	10	18	24%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Marty Costes 2024 · AAA	28	51→59	42→45	53→50	48	243/322/358	115	306	8	16	22%	8%	95	+1.0	224/288/320	96	277	9	11	21%	6%	74	-0.6	209/269/262	54	253	7	6	20%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Jonathan Davis 2019 · MLB	27	48→52	43→45	54→55	47	232/305/345	113	294	9	20	24%	7%	86	+0.3	217/304/337	120	285	11	19	26%	8%	84	+0.2	208/298/312	104	282	9	26	27%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Garrett Hampson 2024 · MLB	29	53→57	42→45	56→60	47	250/314/358	108	326	8	19	25%	8%	92	+0.7	226/286/314	88	309	5	16	26%	7%	71	-0.8	207/251/282	75	285	3	16	27%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Connor Hollis 2024 · AAA	29	52→62	41→45	49→55	48	248/318/351	103	324	8	17	25%	8%	91	+0.7	220/283/301	81	278	6	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	208/268/262	54	258	2	21	19%	4%	49	-1.5
✕Mike McCoy 2009 · AAA	28	50→58	39→40	51→60	51	238/303/320	82	289	6	19	20%	8%	78	-0.3	249/321/335	86	300	6	29	17%	10%	89	+0.5	247/328/324	76	297	4	35	17%	10%	88	+0.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	44→50	42→40	54→55	52	214/310/321	106	273	10	21	24%	10%	84	+0.1	202/302/281	79	276	6	21	27%	10%	72	-0.7	174/286/217	43	249	3	23	27%	11%	50	-2.0
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2024 · MLB	29	53→58	40	52→55	49	253/307/341	88	291	8	21	16%	6%	85	+0.2	255/302/350	95	298	8	18	17%	5%	85	+0.2	256/301/341	85	300	6	19	16%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Jason Donald 2013 · MLB	28	52→57	42→45	50	44	247/306/356	110	318	8	13	24%	6%	88	+0.5	211/258/310	99	298	8	9	30%	5%	59	-1.6	189/225/270	81	277	5	6	33%	4%	35	-1.5
✕Steve Tolleson 2012 · MLB	28	48→53	42→45	52→50	48	235/296/341	106	285	9	16	20%	7%	81	-0.1	232/295/334	102	293	9	15	22%	8%	79	-0.2	232/297/330	98	293	8	14	22%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Gorkys Hernández 2016 · AAA	28	52→60	40→45	54→55	42	244/295/336	92	327	7	22	26%	6%	79	-0.2	253/308/361	108	317	9	18	22%	7%	90	+0.6	252/308/366	115	311	11	16	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Dalton Guthrie 2024 · MLB	28	51→55	41→45	50	43	241/302/346	105	317	8	15	25%	6%	85	+0.2	226/285/320	94	298	8	19	25%	7%	72	-0.7	201/249/237	36	267	3	36	24%	5%	35	-0.9
✕Isaac Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	28	54→56	39→40	50→55	47	257/309/340	83	297	6	17	16%	6%	85	+0.2	254/312/350	96	295	9	20	16%	6%	89	+0.5	267/325/349	82	308	7	23	15%	6%	92	+0.6
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	45→52	44→45	47→50	49	221/297/339	118	273	11	13	23%	8%	82	-0.0	213/290/335	122	301	11	11	31%	8%	78	-0.3	196/279/311	115	284	11	9	32%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Ivan Ochoa 2011 · MLB	28	47→56	41→40	54→55	47	229/294/329	100	285	8	20	22%	7%	78	-0.3	211/263/299	88	259	5	11	20%	6%	59	-1.7	198/244/265	67	244	1	8	18%	5%	44	-1.6
✕Bryson Brigman 2023 · AAA	28	48→58	41→40	50	42	232/279/331	99	297	8	12	24%	5%	72	-0.7	240/291/329	89	299	7	12	21%	6%	76	-0.4	245/299/322	76	300	6	12	19%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2012 · AAA	28	52	39→40	51→55	43	248/291/336	88	313	6	18	22%	5%	77	-0.3	226/264/308	82	313	6	17	28%	5%	61	-1.5	192/244/255	63	284	7	11	33%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Mark Kiger 2008 · AAA	28	53→56	42→45	49→50	50	250/325/362	112	328	9	12	25%	9%	97	+1.1	221/305/302	81	309	6	9	27%	10%	76	-0.4	199/291/249	50	283	3	5	28%	11%	57	-1.0

Gilberto Celestino

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps