Levi Jordan
CF Rochester Red Wings| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAACIN | 401 | .307/.385/.489 | 13 | 10 | 99 | — | .265/.330/.392 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 607 | .240/.319/.338 | 8 | 24 | 59 | — | .200/.254/.284 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAAWSH | 30 | .250/.300/.286 | 0 | 1 | 32 | — | .207/.233/.241 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 31 | MLBWSH | 10 | .233/.288/.334 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 32 | MLBWSH | 26 | .228/.283/.325 | 0 | 0 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 35 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 265 | 312 | 577 | 62 | 286 | 14 | 3 | 248 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 256 | 231 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 289 | 286 | 574 | 65 | 275 | 19 | 7 | 263 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 149 | 127 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 46 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 336 | 378 | 714 | 142 | 338 | 31 | 11 | 318 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 134 | 120 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 333 | 433 | 767 | 167 | 318 | 24 | 6 | 338 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 297 | 273 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 53 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 249 | 305 | 388 | 693 | 139 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 101 | 85 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 353 | 450 | 671 | 1.121 | 318 | 348 | 11 | 12 | 477 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 79 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 295 | 358 | 653 | 179 | 217 | 24 | 13 | 292 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 210 | 170 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 39 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 235 | 375 | 288 | 663 | 53 | 301 | 19 | 15 | 316 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 352 | 108 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 78 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 307 | 385 | 489 | 874 | 182 | 358 | 19 | 7 | 385 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 461 | 414 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 67 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 237 | 309 | 345 | 654 | 109 | 265 | 15 | 8 | 295 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 146 | 124 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 250 | 354 | 315 | 669 | 65 | 288 | 13 | 12 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 36 | 333 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 206 | 212 | 418 | 30 | 219 | 20 | 3 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 256 | 237 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 225 | 224 | 449 | 51 | 231 | 27 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 149 | 132 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 281 | 311 | 591 | 106 | 308 | 36 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 134 | 123 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 130 | 296 | 29 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 297 | 280 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 261 | 329 | 590 | 107 | 270 | 22 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 101 | 89 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 326 | 400 | 596 | 996 | 270 | 328 | 14 | 8 | 413 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 79 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 157 | 244 | 286 | 529 | 129 | 205 | 28 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 210 | 182 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 220 | 317 | 269 | 587 | 49 | 285 | 22 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 362 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 94 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 265 | 330 | 392 | 722 | 127 | 325 | 23 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 461 | 426 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 83 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 200 | 254 | 284 | 538 | 85 | 230 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 294 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 206 | 212 | 418 | 30 | 222 | 20 | 3 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 35 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 265 | 312 | 577 | 62 | 286 | 14 | 3 | 248 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 256 | 237 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 225 | 224 | 449 | 51 | 238 | 27 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 256 | 231 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 289 | 286 | 574 | 65 | 275 | 19 | 7 | 263 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 255 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 93 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 288 | 345 | 633 | 122 | 319 | 33 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 247 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 78 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 251 | 335 | 405 | 739 | 154 | 327 | 28 | 8 | 327 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 369 | 91 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 296 | 393 | 689 | 146 | 287 | 20 | 6 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 398 | 358 | 98 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 64 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 274 | 342 | 455 | 797 | 182 | 301 | 16 | 8 | 351 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 252 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 70 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 198 | 294 | 266 | 560 | 67 | 268 | 24 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 289 | 237 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 58 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 219 | 353 | 308 | 661 | 89 | 279 | 20 | 14 | 310 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 362 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 94 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 265 | 330 | 392 | 722 | 127 | 333 | 23 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 352 | 108 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 78 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 307 | 385 | 489 | 874 | 182 | 358 | 19 | 7 | 385 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 560 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 109 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 200 | 255 | 287 | 542 | 87 | 235 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 607 | 538 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 86 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 240 | 319 | 338 | 658 | 99 | 271 | 14 | 9 | 299 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 286 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 36 | 333 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 35 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 206 | 206 | 412 | 29 | 219 | 20 | 3 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 256 | 238 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 225 | 223 | 448 | 50 | 231 | 27 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 258 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 93 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 288 | 341 | 629 | 120 | 302 | 33 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 369 | 91 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 296 | 393 | 689 | 146 | 285 | 20 | 6 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 253 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 70 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 198 | 294 | 265 | 559 | 67 | 263 | 24 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 363 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 94 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 264 | 330 | 391 | 721 | 127 | 325 | 23 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 561 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 109 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 200 | 255 | 287 | 542 | 87 | 230 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 294 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 401 | 363 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 94 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 264 | 330 | 391 | 721 | 127 | 325 | 23 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 561 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 109 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 200 | 255 | 287 | 542 | 87 | 230 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 294 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 10% | 200 | 183 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 288 | 335 | 623 | 102 | 283 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 10% | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 288 | 334 | 622 | 101 | 283 | 20 | 10 | 280 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | WSH | 27% | 95 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 228 | 283 | 326 | 609 | 97 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 72 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | WSH | 27% | 26 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 283 | 325 | 608 | 96 | 279 | 19 | 4 | 274 | 72 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 240 | 471 | 40 | 250 | 19 | 4 | 274 | 65 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 625 | 125 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 240 | 471 | 40 | 250 | 19 | 4 | 274 | 65 | -22 | +0 | -24 | +2 | +14 | -3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2499 | 2281 | 500 | 101 | 10 | 35 | 142 | 569 | 50 | 72 | 16 | 219 | 280 | 318 | 598 | 99 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -6 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 148 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 219 | 280 | 319 | 599 | 99 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -20 | +2 | -11 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 30 PAwOBA .264 → .215 (−49)K% 23.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.962 | 25.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.962 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .264 → .215; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .333 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 461 PAwOBA .290 → .239 (−51)K% 14.5% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.53% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.88% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×0.972 | 17.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.972 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.972 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .290 → .239; ISO .109 → .089; BABIP .265 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALouisville Bats · 401 PAwOBA .379 → .314 (−64)K% 19.5% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.45% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.48% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 3.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.91% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×0.982 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.39% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×0.982 | 7.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×0.982 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.74% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .379 → .314; ISO .182 → .130; BABIP .358 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 210 PAwOBA .312 → .267 (−45)K% 18.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.57% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.76% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 9.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 22.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.87% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .267; ISO .053 → .050; BABIP .301 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 79 PAwOBA .285 → .240 (−45)K% 24.1% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.05% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 11.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.916 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 4.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .240; ISO .179 → .158; BABIP .217 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 297 PAwOBA .300 → .256 (−44)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.85% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.07% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.45% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×1.003 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×1.003 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.003 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.18% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .300 → .256; ISO .139 → .108; BABIP .286 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATennessee Smokies · 101 PAwOBA .468 → .413 (−55)K% 10.9% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.89% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.88% | ÷0.940 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 20.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.46% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 9.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.973 | ×0.880 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 6.28% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .468 → .413; ISO .318 → .275; BABIP .348 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 149 PAwOBA .314 → .264 (−51)K% 30.9% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.87% | ÷1.032 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷1.039 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 21.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.64% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.44% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .314 → .264; ISO .142 → .112; BABIP .338 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .