Dalton Guthrie — OGILVIE

Dalton GuthrieCF Leones de Ponce

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs INTL HR -5%K -4% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 206 proj PA

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .306 / .373

PA17

HR0

K%24

BB%7

ISO133

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT—

Whiff%

2214.1%

xAVG

100.215

POWER—

Barrel%

143.5

Avg EV

1081.1

EYE—

Chase%

4632.5%

SPEED—

Sprint

7928.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	21	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	28	22	4	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	1	182	333	364	697	182	150	4	18	309	96	-0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2018	22	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	307	74	16	0	5	21	56	6	3	6	241	302	342	644	101	273	16	6	282	77	-9	-2	—	—	+8	-0.4
2019	23	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	301	73	16	4	4	13	51	5	6	2	243	285	362	647	120	278	16	4	284	79	-8	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1
2021	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	139	130	38	13	0	2	5	31	2	2	1	292	328	438	767	146	371	22	4	335	113	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2021	25	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	184	165	40	4	2	4	15	41	3	3	2	242	317	364	681	121	300	22	8	307	94	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.3
2022	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	21	7	0	0	1	6	7	1	1	0	333	500	476	976	143	462	25	21	444	187	+3	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	374	338	102	27	1	10	24	73	9	21	6	302	364	476	840	175	359	20	6	370	137	+16	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	167	286	208	494	42	235	25	11	244	51	-2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.2
2023	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	343	299	82	15	3	4	33	73	9	7	4	274	364	385	748	110	350	21	10	339	116	+6	-0	—	—	+7	1.4
2024	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	142	36	4	0	1	13	32	1	11	3	254	321	303	623	49	321	21	8	289	82	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	353	125	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	56	45	11	1	0	1	9	14	2	1	0	244	393	333	726	89	333	25	16	344	119	+1	+0	+1	-3	+1	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	1	3	1	0	1	1	167	259	333	593	167	117	4	11	232	43	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	314	67	13	0	4	14	77	6	3	6	213	260	293	553	80	249	22	4	241	49	-21	-2	—	—	+8	-1.6
2019	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	305	57	11	3	3	9	75	5	6	2	187	223	272	495	85	230	23	3	218	34	-26	+0	—	—	+7	-1.9
2021	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	139	132	35	12	0	1	3	38	2	2	1	265	292	379	671	114	349	27	2	286	80	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2021	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	184	170	35	3	2	2	10	51	3	3	2	206	262	282	545	76	282	28	5	245	52	-11	-0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2022	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	21	7	0	0	1	6	7	1	1	0	333	500	476	976	143	462	25	21	433	179	+3	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.2
2022	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	374	346	90	22	1	7	16	91	9	21	6	260	310	390	700	130	327	24	4	300	89	-5	+2	—	—	+8	0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	167	286	208	494	42	235	25	11	240	49	-2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.2
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	343	309	75	13	3	3	23	87	9	7	4	243	314	333	647	91	321	25	7	283	78	-9	-0	—	—	+7	-0.2
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	146	30	3	0	1	9	38	1	11	3	205	256	247	503	41	272	24	6	224	38	-12	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	1	3	1	0	1	1	167	259	333	593	167	136	4	11	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	—	28	22	4	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	1	182	333	364	697	182	150	4	18	309	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	314	67	13	0	4	14	77	6	3	6	213	260	293	553	80	263	22	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	307	74	16	0	5	21	56	6	3	6	241	302	342	644	101	273	16	6	282	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	305	57	11	3	3	9	75	5	6	2	187	223	272	495	85	236	23	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	301	73	16	4	4	13	51	5	6	2	243	285	362	647	120	278	16	4	284	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	323	302	71	15	2	4	13	88	5	5	3	235	278	338	616	103	319	27	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	323	295	78	17	2	6	20	72	5	5	3	264	322	397	718	132	332	22	6	319	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	402	367	97	22	1	8	22	98	10	22	6	264	323	395	718	131	340	24	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	402	359	109	27	1	11	30	80	10	22	6	304	373	476	850	173	364	20	7	375	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	333	79	14	3	3	26	94	10	7	4	237	312	324	636	87	321	25	7	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	371	323	86	16	3	4	36	80	10	7	4	266	358	372	729	105	342	22	10	332	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	146	30	3	0	1	9	38	1	11	3	205	256	247	503	41	271	24	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	142	36	4	0	1	13	32	1	11	3	254	321	303	623	49	321	21	8	289	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL RAW	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	28	25	4	1	0	1	3	1	0	1	1	160	259	320	579	160	117	4	11	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	324	67	13	0	4	14	77	6	3	6	207	260	284	544	77	249	22	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	308	57	11	3	3	9	75	5	6	2	185	223	269	492	84	230	23	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	323	302	71	15	2	4	13	88	5	5	3	235	278	338	616	103	311	27	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	402	367	97	22	1	8	22	98	10	22	6	264	323	395	718	131	336	24	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	332	79	14	3	3	26	94	10	7	4	238	312	325	637	87	315	25	7	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	145	30	3	0	1	9	38	1	11	3	207	256	248	505	41	272	24	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	332	79	14	3	3	26	94	10	7	4	238	312	325	637	87	315	25	7	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	145	30	3	0	1	9	38	1	11	3	207	256	248	505	41	272	24	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	30	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	17	16	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	250	294	312	607	62	302	24	6	306	93	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	22%	191	172	42	7	1	5	14	46	3	5	1	244	312	384	696	140	298	24	7	304	92	-2	+1	-2	+1	+4	0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	22%	41	37	9	2	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	243	317	378	695	135	304	24	7	295	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	97	82	20	3	0	2	12	24	3	2	0	244	361	354	714	110	321	25	12	323	53	+1	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	549	134	20	0	13	80	161	20	13	0	244	360	352	712	107	323	25	12	323	53	+6	+3	+0	-19	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2320	2118	492	96	10	30	127	547	45	66	29	232	290	330	620	97	297	24	5	247	53	-1	+1	-2	-2	+6	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	138	27	3	8	36	153	13	18	8	233	291	329	620	96	299	24	6	247	53	-2	+2	-4	-6	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	247	6	7	244	306	377	+0	+0	0.2	0.2
/162	664	16	18	+0.8	+1.1	0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dalton Guthrie (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	241/306/373	131	302	5	6	24%	7%	93	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Phillip Ervin 2021 · MLB	29	48→51	47→50	49→55	49	235/311/376	142	296	13	13	24%	8%	95	+1.0	204/281/326	122	279	13	16	30%	9%	73	-0.6	158/237/252	95	218	12	21	32%	9%	37	-1.4
✕Mario Lisson 2014 · AAA	30	45→49	48→50	48→55	44	225/289/368	142	283	15	14	26%	6%	86	+0.3	232/298/367	135	297	15	10	26%	7%	88	+0.5	230/303/360	129	300	15	8	27%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Ryan Roberts 2011 · MLB	30	47→52	45→50	52→55	51	234/304/363	129	281	12	16	21%	9%	89	+0.5	232/305/372	140	271	16	15	20%	9%	92	+0.7	229/304/364	135	264	16	13	19%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Michael A. Taylor 2022 · MLB	31	47→53	48→55	47→60	42	237/291/373	136	309	16	15	28%	6%	87	+0.4	236/294/379	143	310	18	14	29%	7%	89	+0.5	225/285/367	143	298	19	15	30%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Jason Repko 2011 · MLB	30	46→48	45→50	53→55	45	229/291/353	124	286	13	20	24%	7%	82	+0.0	217/277/333	116	281	12	17	26%	7%	72	-0.7	196/254/299	103	257	11	18	27%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Tim Locastro 2022 · MLB	30	46→54	44→45	55→60	46	225/315/346	120	269	11	23	20%	6%	91	+0.7	212/295/336	124	263	12	24	24%	5%	82	-0.0	212/302/326	115	267	11	36	23%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	51→55	46	222/287/329	107	284	11	16	25%	8%	75	-0.5	220/290/381	161	284	20	14	29%	8%	89	+0.5	199/274/379	180	248	24	14	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Scott Heineman 2022 · MLB	29	44→54	48→45	51→50	43	222/287/367	145	284	16	16	27%	7%	84	+0.2	209/272/333	124	321	12	16	36%	7%	71	-0.8	146/205/231	85	266	7	23	45%	6%	20	-0.8
✕Chris Heisey 2015 · MLB	30	45→52	48→55	52→55	43	229/276/376	147	269	16	13	22%	5%	82	+0.0	208/286/385	177	251	23	7	27%	9%	88	+0.5	186/283/376	190	212	28	3	28%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→55	50	52→55	43	236/281/385	149	286	18	16	25%	6%	86	+0.3	235/282/361	126	300	14	20	25%	6%	80	-0.1	233/279/345	112	299	13	24	26%	5%	74	-0.2
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	44→49	48→50	49→45	43	220/289/360	140	285	15	8	28%	7%	84	+0.1	226/294/374	148	287	15	8	26%	7%	88	+0.5	218/290/367	150	272	15	6	25%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Cole Gillespie 2014 · MLB	30	47→57	45→50	52→50	50	230/300/354	124	283	12	13	23%	9%	86	+0.3	247/306/358	111	297	9	12	19%	8%	88	+0.5	253/310/353	99	301	6	12	17%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Jayson Nix 2013 · MLB	30	42→49	48→55	47→55	44	215/278/360	145	271	15	11	26%	7%	80	-0.2	209/269/303	94	276	8	14	26%	7%	63	-1.4	191/246/258	67	255	6	12	26%	6%	41	-1.3
✕Javier Herrera 2015 · AAA	30	51→54	47→50	50	43	249/304/392	143	326	13	15	27%	7%	96	+1.0	221/282/328	107	325	9	9	32%	7%	73	-0.6	183/252/237	54	295	4	0	36%	8%	38	-0.7
✕George Lombard 2005 · MLB	29	47→44	47→50	55	45	237/295/377	140	297	15	17	25%	7%	89	+0.5	224/296/372	148	312	16	23	31%	8%	88	+0.5	216/290/358	142	303	15	27	32%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Desmond Jennings 2017 · MLB	30	45→55	47→50	49→60	50	225/298/363	138	268	15	13	22%	9%	87	+0.4	213/271/349	136	263	16	9	25%	7%	74	-0.5	178/223/290	112	220	13	7	26%	6%	41	-1.1
✕Rafael Ortega 2021 · MLB	30	45→54	47→50	52→55	49	227/290/369	142	268	14	16	21%	8%	85	+0.2	242/320/385	143	292	16	18	22%	10%	101	+1.4	232/321/360	127	280	14	21	21%	11%	92	+0.5
✕Peter Bourjos 2016 · MLB	29	46→55	45→50	49→60	45	223/295/352	129	290	11	14	26%	7%	84	+0.1	234/284/371	137	301	11	10	25%	6%	83	+0.1	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Rainel Rosario 2019 · AAA	30	49→52	47→50	45→50	47	247/300/382	135	283	16	9	19%	7%	92	+0.7	253/315/416	163	291	19	7	20%	8%	106	+1.8	257/323/426	168	289	21	4	18%	8%	107	+1.6
✕Ricardo Vazquez 2014 · AAA	29	49	45→50	50→45	42	242/286/366	124	294	13	13	22%	5%	83	+0.1	233/282/355	122	290	13	9	24%	6%	79	-0.2	234/290/364	131	275	15	5	20%	6%	82	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps