Dalton Guthrie — OGILVIE

Dalton GuthrieLF Leones de Ponce

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs INTL H +3% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 206 proj PA

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .306 / .377

PA206

HR5

SB6

K%24

BB%7

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT—

Whiff%

2214.1%

xwOBA

610.321

POWER—

Barrel%

143.5

Avg EV

1081.1

EYE—

Chase%

4632.5%

SPEED—

Sprint

7928.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	1	3	1	0	1	1	167	259	333	593	167	136	4	11	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	28	22	4	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	1	182	333	364	697	182	150	4	18	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	314	69	13	0	4	14	79	6	3	6	220	266	299	566	80	273	23	4	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	307	74	16	0	5	21	56	6	3	6	241	302	342	644	101	273	16	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	304	55	9	3	4	10	79	5	6	2	181	219	270	489	89	229	24	3	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	301	73	16	4	4	13	51	5	6	2	243	285	362	647	120	278	16	4	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	2 teams	—	323	302	70	16	1	4	13	92	5	5	3	232	275	331	606	99	320	28	4	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	2 teams	—	323	295	78	17	2	6	20	72	5	5	3	264	322	397	718	132	332	22	6	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	402	368	97	22	1	9	21	100	10	22	6	264	321	402	723	139	338	25	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	402	359	109	27	1	11	30	80	10	22	6	304	373	476	850	173	364	20	7	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	371	333	82	15	3	3	26	94	10	7	4	246	320	336	656	90	333	25	7	292	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	371	323	86	16	3	4	36	80	10	7	4	266	358	372	729	105	342	22	10	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	147	29	3	0	1	8	38	1	11	3	197	244	238	482	41	259	24	5	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	142	36	4	0	1	13	32	1	11	3	254	321	303	623	49	321	21	8	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	353	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	BOS	—	206	187	46	8	1	5	14	50	3	6	2	246	309	380	689	134	302	24	7	308	94	-1	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	BOS	22%	191	172	42	7	1	5	14	47	3	5	1	244	312	384	696	140	299	25	7	305	92	-2	+1	-2	+1	+5	0.3
2028	32	MLB	BOS	34%	172	156	37	6	1	4	12	42	2	3	1	237	300	365	665	128	295	24	7	301	88	-2	+0	-3	+1	+5	0.0
2027	31	MLB	BOS	22%	41	37	9	2	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	243	317	378	695	135	305	24	7	299	87	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
2028	32	MLB	BOS	34%	59	54	12	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	222	288	315	603	93	301	25	7	295	84	-1	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	156	136	32	5	0	3	16	39	4	3	0	235	333	338	672	103	309	25	10	313	98	-0	+1	-1	-3	+4	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	133	21	0	12	67	162	17	12	0	235	334	335	669	101	308	25	10	313	98	-1	+2	-4	-11	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	2681	2446	572	109	11	41	151	648	50	75	32	234	292	338	630	104	300	24	6	256	54	-140	+2	-4	+4	+76	-6.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	139	26	3	10	37	157	12	18	8	234	293	339	632	105	301	24	6	256	54	-34	+0	-1	+1	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	28	22	4	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	1	182	333	364	697	182	150	4	18	309	95	-0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2018	22	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	347	307	74	16	0	5	21	56	6	3	6	241	302	342	644	101	273	16	6	282	74	-10	-2	—	—	+10	-0.2
2019	23	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	325	301	73	16	4	4	13	51	5	6	2	243	285	362	647	120	278	16	4	284	76	-9	+0	—	—	+9	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	139	130	38	13	0	2	5	31	2	2	1	292	328	438	767	146	371	22	4	335	115	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2021	25	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	184	165	40	4	2	4	15	41	3	3	2	242	317	364	681	121	300	22	8	307	93	-1	-0	—	—	+5	0.4
2022	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	21	7	0	0	1	6	7	1	1	0	333	500	476	976	143	462	25	21	444	198	+3	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	374	338	102	27	1	10	24	73	9	21	6	302	364	476	840	175	359	20	6	370	141	+17	+2	—	—	+11	3.0
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	28	24	4	1	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	167	286	208	494	42	235	25	11	244	45	-2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.2
2023	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	343	299	82	15	3	4	33	73	9	7	4	274	364	385	748	110	350	21	10	339	118	+7	-0	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	156	142	36	4	0	1	13	32	1	11	3	254	321	303	623	49	321	21	8	289	79	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.2
2025	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	160	139	41	9	0	1	16	26	5	6	3	295	388	381	769	86	357	16	10	353	129	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	56	45	11	1	0	1	9	14	2	1	0	244	393	333	726	89	333	25	16	344	121	+1	+0	+1	-3	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Woodwardlast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA	9	1,835	33	9	242	299	370	+2	-0	2.2	2.7
	/162	664	12	3	242	299	370	+0.6	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#2Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#2Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#3Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	5	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	14	0	252	305	394	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#4Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	306	8	8	243	305	379	-0	+1	0.2	0.2
	/162	664	17	17	243	305	379	-0.7	+1.8	0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dalton Guthrie (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	242/306/377	135	302	5	6	24%	7%	94	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	46→48	51→55	45→50	47	237/295/399	163	280	18	7	23%	7%	94	+1.3	215/284/374	159	260	18	6	24%	8%	83	+0.6	182/261/345	163	213	18	2	24%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Tyler Greene 2014 · MLB	30	45→53	47→50	55	39	224/277/362	138	309	14	20	31%	6%	76	+0.1	226/272/340	114	333	11	10	34%	5%	68	-0.5	227/271/329	103	344	9	7	35%	4%	63	-0.7
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→55	50→55	52→55	43	238/282/393	155	288	19	16	25%	6%	86	+0.8	240/286/377	137	303	16	20	26%	6%	84	+0.6	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Mario Lisson 2014 · AAA	30	44→49	49→55	48→55	43	225/289/378	153	282	17	14	26%	6%	86	+0.8	234/299/385	151	297	19	10	27%	7%	92	+1.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	44→48	47→55	49→45	43	220/287/358	138	285	15	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	229/296/387	158	286	17	8	25%	7%	92	+1.2	221/293/387	166	269	18	6	24%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Michael A. Taylor 2021 · MLB	30	43→53	49→55	52→60	41	217/272/372	154	298	16	19	32%	7%	77	+0.1	242/298/381	139	316	17	13	28%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/384	143	312	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Scott Heineman 2022 · MLB	29	44→54	49→45	51→50	43	223/285/370	147	285	16	16	28%	6%	82	+0.5	211/270/337	126	322	12	16	36%	6%	67	-0.5	158/215/253	95	287	6	23	44%	6%	20	-0.7
✕Pablo Reyes 2023 · MLB	29	47→53	46→50	48→55	48	233/292/368	135	270	14	15	20%	7%	84	+0.6	239/302/361	122	283	13	19	20%	8%	87	+0.8	243/317/375	132	288	13	24	19%	9%	93	+0.8
✕Josh Fields 2013 · MLB	30	48→56	45→55	50	43	236/291/362	127	319	13	10	29%	7%	82	+0.5	240/283/349	109	329	9	10	28%	6%	75	-0.0	250/287/350	100	340	7	9	28%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Phillip Ervin 2021 · MLB	29	47→50	47→50	49→55	48	234/310/381	147	295	14	13	25%	8%	95	+1.4	204/279/332	128	279	15	16	30%	9%	70	-0.3	158/235/263	105	215	15	21	33%	9%	31	-1.3
●Ryan Roberts 2011 · MLB	30	47→52	45→50	52→55	50	230/298/355	125	280	12	16	22%	8%	83	+0.6	230/302/369	139	269	16	15	20%	9%	89	+1.0	227/302/364	136	262	16	13	19%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Cole Gillespie 2014 · MLB	30	46→56	44→50	51→50	49	225/296/345	120	281	11	13	24%	9%	80	+0.4	249/308/362	113	300	10	12	19%	8%	89	+0.9	257/313/360	103	306	7	12	17%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Javier Herrera 2015 · AAA	30	50→51	49→50	50	42	245/300/399	154	327	16	15	29%	6%	95	+1.4	220/280/331	111	330	10	9	34%	7%	69	-0.4	178/247/238	61	293	6	0	38%	8%	29	-0.7
●Rainel Rosario 2019 · AAA	30	47→51	49→50	45→50	47	241/293/382	141	276	17	9	20%	6%	89	+0.9	255/317/431	176	291	22	7	20%	8%	111	+2.5	262/328/446	185	291	24	4	19%	9%	115	+2.3
●Moisés Sierra 2019 · MLB	30	49→55	43→50	48→50	44	238/293/351	113	298	10	13	23%	6%	80	+0.4	253/324/400	147	301	17	14	21%	8%	106	+2.2	272/352/434	162	313	20	15	19%	8%	125	+2.9
✕Charlie Culberson 2019 · MLB	30	48→49	46→45	47→50	42	240/285/369	129	301	13	9	25%	5%	81	+0.4	246/295/401	155	315	17	9	26%	6%	94	+1.3	242/286/378	136	311	13	10	26%	5%	81	+0.1
✕Reid Gorecki 2010 · MLB	29	50→51	45→50	52→55	44	248/298/378	130	304	12	19	23%	6%	89	+1.0	225/281/339	114	291	9	18	25%	7%	72	-0.2	210/272/307	98	277	6	22	25%	7%	56	-1.0
✕Chris Owings 2021 · MLB	29	43→53	47→50	48→55	41	218/274/352	134	295	15	15	31%	7%	73	-0.1	206/272/349	143	291	16	12	33%	8%	72	-0.2	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Chris Aguila 2007 · MLB	28	52→54	46→55	49→50	45	257/301/395	138	310	13	12	22%	6%	95	+1.4	239/290/390	151	299	18	12	26%	6%	89	+1.0	222/284/393	171	285	22	8	29%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Jayson Nix 2013 · MLB	30	42→49	47→55	47→55	44	213/276/354	141	269	15	11	26%	7%	74	-0.1	210/270/305	95	275	9	14	26%	7%	59	-1.1	192/248/263	71	254	6	12	26%	6%	36	-1.2