Bryson Brigman

SS Louisville Bats

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAA/AA2 orgs	320	.270/.364/.356	3	6	77	—	.244/.317/.313
2024	29	AAAARI	404	.334/.385/.474	9	10	87	—	.275/.315/.379
2025	30	AAACIN	151	.237/.313/.289	1	5	33	—	.193/.247/.236
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBCIN	11	.242/.292/.334	0	0	75	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBCIN	25	.236/.286/.323	0	0	71	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Whiff%80

K%75

Z-Con%75

Speed63

Chase%42

BB%41

CompsErick Almonte (age 32) · Elliot Soto (age 32) · Luis Ordaz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .292 / .334

PA11

HR0

K%18

BB%9

BABIP300

ISO92

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	518	463	109	14	4	2	44	74	5	16	8	235	309	296	604	60	274	14	8	277	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	46	42	13	2	0	1	2	6	1	2	0	310	356	429	784	119	333	13	4	344	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	502	452	140	17	7	2	40	71	6	19	6	310	373	392	765	82	362	14	8	344	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	73	67	18	0	0	0	6	6	0	5	3	269	329	269	597		295	8	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	357	312	78	17	1	2	36	62	4	2	3	250	335	330	665	80	305	17	10	303	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	87	75	20	3	0	0	8	11	2	2	0	267	353	307	660	40	308	13	9	302	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	434	376	106	19	5	5	46	68	3	10	5	282	364	399	763	117	329	16	11	338	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	413	382	96	15	3	8	22	91	5	9	3	251	301	369	670	118	308	22	5	298	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	255	219	64	9	3	3	28	40	7	6	4	292	390	402	792	110	345	16	11	359	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	65	59	11	0	0	0	5	9	1	0	0	186	262	186	448		220	14	8	218	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	404	365	122	18	3	9	26	62	5	10	4	334	385	474	859	140	379	15	6	376	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	151	135	32	4	0	1	14	27	1	5	1	237	313	289	602	52	290	18	9	279	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	518	479	106	13	3	2	28	104	5	16	8	221	271	273	545	52	270	20	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	46	43	12	2	0	1	1	7	1	2	0	279	311	395	706	116	308	15	2	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	502	462	128	18	5	2	30	100	6	19	6	277	329	351	680	74	343	20	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	357	324	71	16	1	2	24	75	4	2	3	219	281	293	574	74	272	21	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	87	77	18	3	0	0	6	15	2	2	0	234	306	273	579	39	275	17	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	434	390	104	18	4	4	33	83	3	10	5	267	329	364	693	97	319	19	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	413	389	83	14	3	5	15	113	5	9	3	213	252	303	555	90	279	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	255	228	60	8	3	2	19	48	7	6	4	263	339	351	689	88	321	19	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	65	60	10	0	0	0	4	11	1	0	0	167	231	167	397		201	17	6	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	404	375	103	15	3	6	17	77	5	10	4	275	315	379	694	104	319	19	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	140	27	3	0	1	9	33	1	5	1	193	247	236	482	43	245	22	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	518	479	106	13	3	2	28	104	5	16	8	221	271	273	545	52	276	20	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	518	463	109	14	4	2	44	74	5	16	8	235	309	296	604	60	274	14	8	277	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	621	573	159	23	6	3	36	121	7	26	9	277	328	354	682	77	345	19	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	621	561	171	19	7	3	48	83	7	26	9	305	367	380	747	75	351	13	8	337	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	444	402	89	19	1	2	29	90	6	4	3	221	284	289	572	67	279	20	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	444	387	98	20	1	2	44	73	6	4	3	253	339	326	664	72	306	16	10	303	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	434	390	104	18	4	4	33	83	3	10	5	267	329	364	693	97	326	19	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	434	376	106	19	5	5	46	68	3	10	5	282	364	399	763	117	329	16	11	338	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	413	389	83	14	3	5	15	113	5	9	3	213	252	303	555	90	285	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	413	382	96	15	3	8	22	91	5	9	3	251	301	369	670	118	308	22	5	298	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	320	289	70	8	3	2	22	59	8	6	4	242	313	311	625	69	297	18	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	320	278	75	9	3	3	33	49	8	6	4	270	364	356	720	86	317	15	10	331	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	404	375	103	15	3	6	17	77	5	10	4	275	315	379	694	104	328	19	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	404	365	122	18	3	9	26	62	5	10	4	334	385	474	859	140	379	15	6	376	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	140	27	3	0	1	9	33	1	5	1	193	247	236	482	43	245	22	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	151	135	32	4	0	1	14	27	1	5	1	237	313	289	602	52	290	18	9	279	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	518	480	106	13	3	2	28	104	5	16	8	221	271	273	544	52	270	20	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	621	573	159	23	6	3	36	121	7	26	9	277	328	354	682	77	340	19	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	444	406	89	19	1	2	29	90	6	4	3	219	284	286	569	67	273	20	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	434	395	104	18	4	4	33	83	3	10	5	263	329	359	688	96	319	19	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	413	390	83	14	3	5	15	113	5	9	3	213	252	303	554	90	279	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	320	287	70	8	3	2	22	59	8	6	4	244	313	314	627	70	297	18	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	404	379	103	15	3	6	17	77	5	10	4	272	315	375	690	103	319	19	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	140	27	3	0	1	9	33	1	5	1	193	247	236	482	43	245	22	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	404	379	103	15	3	6	17	77	5	10	4	272	315	375	690	103	319	19	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	140	27	3	0	1	9	33	1	5	1	193	247	236	482	43	245	22	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	201	186	44	8	1	2	11	44	2	4	1	240	291	330	621	90	300	22	5	280	75	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	242	292	334	626	92	300	18	9	281	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	27%	90	84	19	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	234	285	320	605	86	295	22	6	273	71	-3	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	27%	25	24	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	236	286	323	609	88	296	24	4	275	71	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	25	24	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	208	240	250	490	42	278	24	4	275	71	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	624	130	26	0	0	26	156	0	0	0	208	240	250	490	42	278	24	4	275	71	-23	+0	-30	+7	+14	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3501	3219	784	120	24	27	200	723	42	89	38	244	296	321	617	77	304	21	6	272	71	-6	+0	-4	+2	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	145	22	4	5	37	134	8	17	7	242	295	318	613	75	302	21	6	272	71	-21	+1	-14	+7	+14	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 151 PAwOBA .272 → .217 (−55)K% 17.9% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.88%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	22.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.27%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.20%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.61%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.049	×0.930	×0.991	×0.972	21.34%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.991	×0.972	2.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.991	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.93%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .272 → .217; ISO .052 → .040; BABIP .290 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 404 PAwOBA .369 → .297 (−72)K% 15.3% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.35%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.44%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.31%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.14%
Singles /BIP	30.36%	÷1.076	×0.930	×1.011	×0.982	26.05%
Doubles /BIP	5.94%	÷1.025	×0.830	×1.011	×0.982	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.011	×0.982	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	2.97%	÷1.124	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .369 → .297; ISO .140 → .101; BABIP .379 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 255 PAwOBA .351 → .307 (−44)K% 15.7% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.69%	÷1.003	×1.200	—	—	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.59%	÷0.976	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.42%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.56%
Singles /BIP	27.37%	÷1.021	×0.930	×1.050	×0.992	25.98%
Doubles /BIP	5.03%	÷0.983	×0.830	×1.050	×0.992	4.42%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×0.992	1.47%
Home runs /BIP	1.68%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .351 → .307; ISO .110 → .090; BABIP .345 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 65 PAwOBA .213 → .182 (−31)K% 13.8% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.85%	÷1.023	×1.220	—	—	16.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷0.973	×0.700	—	×0.968	5.36%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.870	—	×0.968	1.30%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷0.992	×0.920	×1.019	×0.968	20.11%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.942	×0.840	×1.019	×0.968	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.019	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×0.968	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .213 → .182; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .220 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 413 PAwOBA .291 → .243 (−48)K% 22.0% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.03%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.08%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.60%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.14%
Singles /BIP	24.05%	÷1.054	×0.930	×1.018	×1.003	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	5.15%	÷0.898	×0.830	×1.018	×1.003	4.86%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷0.930	×0.970	×1.018	×1.003	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .291 → .243; ISO .118 → .093; BABIP .308 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 434 PAwOBA .333 → .305 (−28)K% 15.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.67%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.49%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.66%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.971	×0.930	×1.018	×1.018	24.81%
Doubles /BIP	6.17%	÷0.933	×0.830	×1.018	×1.018	5.69%
Triples /BIP	1.62%	÷1.109	×0.920	×1.018	×1.018	1.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.62%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.31%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .333 → .305; ISO .117 → .104; BABIP .329 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 357 PAwOBA .295 → .252 (−43)K% 17.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.37%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	21.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.80%	÷1.015	×0.680	—	×1.012	6.65%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.95%
Singles /BIP	23.20%	÷1.008	×0.920	×0.960	×1.012	20.57%
Doubles /BIP	6.80%	÷0.975	×0.910	×0.960	×1.012	6.17%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.960	×1.012	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.80%	÷0.918	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.71%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .295 → .252; ISO .080 → .074; BABIP .305 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 87 PAwOBA .298 → .258 (−41)K% 12.6% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.64%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.20%	÷0.998	×0.750	—	×0.988	6.83%
HBP% /PA	2.30%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	2.11%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷1.045	×0.920	—	×0.988	23.10%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷0.931	×0.960	—	×0.988	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.120	×0.810	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.803	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .298 → .258; ISO .040 → .041; BABIP .308 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryson Brigman (OGILVIE)	32	50	30	50	45	238/289/328	89	300	1	2	22%	6%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Erick Almonte 2010 · AAA	32	49→47	40	47→45	48	237/296/331	94	294	8	7	22%	8%	78	-0.3	238/288/326	88	304	7	7	23%	6%	74	-0.5	247/295/331	84	312	6	5	22%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Elliot Soto 2022 · AAA	32	46→52	39→40	48→50	44	218/278/304	86	291	6	10	26%	7%	66	-1.1	193/255/272	79	276	5	16	30%	7%	50	-2.3	174/240/240	67	253	4	20	31%	7%	35	-1.9
✕Luis Ordaz 2008 · AAA	32	52	39→40	47→50	42	250/277/336	86	288	6	11	16%	3%	72	-0.7	241/274/344	103	286	9	12	19%	4%	73	-0.6	257/282/368	111	289	10	4	15%	2%	81	-0.0
✕Donnie Sadler 2007 · MLB	32	47	40	52→55	47	225/284/327	102	292	6	13	24%	8%	73	-0.6	216/286/332	116	282	9	15	25%	8%	75	-0.5	169/258/280	110	220	7	19	24%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→57	39→45	50	46	238/285/328	91	282	6	14	18%	6%	74	-0.6	247/303/312	65	296	4	8	17%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/292	45	296	2	5	16%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Jorge Velandia 2007 · AAA	32	49→51	41→40	50→45	43	240/275/337	97	283	8	11	19%	4%	72	-0.7	218/265/305	87	278	7	8	23%	5%	61	-1.5	206/257/280	74	267	6	5	24%	6%	50	-1.7
✕Alan Arredondo 2009 · AAA	31	51	38→30	56→60	44	242/284/326	85	297	5	17	20%	5%	72	-0.7	236/297/314	78	285	5	22	18%	8%	75	-0.5	232/304/268	37	272	0	36	13%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Ali Castillo 2021 · AAA	32	51→61	41→40	44→55	45	247/284/352	105	280	8	8	15%	5%	78	-0.3	218/256/277	59	259	3	11	16%	5%	51	-2.3	210/246/239	29	250	0	11	15%	4%	36	-1.7
✕Ramon Valdez 2009 · AAA	32	53	37→30	48→55	47	248/301/317	70	298	4	14	18%	6%	77	-0.3	233/291/315	82	284	5	17	19%	6%	73	-0.6	250/322/310	61	285	2	26	12%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Andrew Romine 2018 · MLB	32	49→55	42→40	50→55	47	238/296/343	105	287	8	15	20%	7%	82	-0.0	228/278/327	99	281	9	16	21%	6%	71	-0.8	225/270/298	73	285	6	14	22%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Israel Nunez 2017 · AAA	31	52	40	47→40	42	251/295/345	94	301	8	7	19%	4%	82	-0.0	234/275/337	103	277	10	7	19%	5%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Eric Bruntlett 2010 · MLB	32	45→51	38→40	52→55	49	214/280/297	83	256	5	17	18%	7%	65	-1.2	204/260/313	109	258	11	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	186/237/280	95	236	10	9	25%	5%	42	-2.2
✕Eliezer Ortiz 2019 · AAA	32	51→58	39→40	50→55	38	242/281/327	85	309	6	15	23%	4%	72	-0.7	224/283/319	95	289	8	11	24%	5%	72	-0.7	212/272/282	70	276	6	8	24%	4%	57	-1.0
✕Drew Maggi 2021 · AAA	32	46→56	43→45	49→60	46	223/299/334	111	287	10	12	25%	7%	82	-0.0	190/264/286	96	274	9	19	32%	7%	58	-1.7	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕Gary Bennett 2004 · MLB	32	51	40	45→40	48	242/292/331	89	274	7	5	15%	6%	77	-0.3	227/286/321	94	260	8	4	15%	7%	73	-0.6	215/276/300	84	246	7	1	15%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Daniel Nunez 2014 · AAA	32	52→49	39→30	47→50	47	243/321/327	84	313	6	14	23%	7%	88	+0.4	232/293/304	72	284	4	11	19%	6%	72	-0.7	230/286/288	58	278	3	10	17%	5%	63	-0.7
✕José Yépez 2013 · AAA	32	51	41→40	47→30	49	241/310/341	101	282	7	6	17%	7%	87	+0.4	207/259/279	72	245	5	5	17%	5%	53	-2.1	173/205/205	32	206	1	1	16%	3%	13	-1.5
✕Rubén Tejada 2021 · AAA	31	48→58	41→40	46→50	45	232/290/332	101	283	9	8	21%	6%	77	-0.3	217/284/292	75	283	6	7	24%	7%	66	-1.1	196/269/223	26	262	1	2	23%	7%	42	-1.4
✕J.J. Furmaniak 2011 · AAA	32	46→49	38→45	48→50	45	217/270/299	82	270	5	10	21%	6%	61	-1.5	209/256/298	89	264	6	12	22%	5%	56	-1.9	188/227/263	75	237	5	11	22%	4%	34	-2.4
✕Carlos Orrantia 2015 · AAA	33	50→54	41→45	48→55	42	241/279/340	99	290	8	15	20%	5%	74	-0.5	226/267/304	78	284	6	9	22%	4%	61	-1.5	219/257/277	58	279	5	6	23%	4%	49	-1.1