Onix Vega
C Syracuse Mets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 247 | .224/.348/.278 | 2 | 3 | 61 | — | .186/.262/.221 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 160 | .227/.314/.355 | 4 | 0 | 64 | — | .164/.208/.274 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAANYM | 23 | .150/.261/.300 | 1 | 0 | 24 | — | .143/.217/.286 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBNYM | 10 | .212/.279/.325 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBNYM | 41 | .211/.278/.323 | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 71 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 400 | 310 | 710 | 34 | 296 | 6 | 13 | 334 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 289 | 240 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 47 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 233 | 352 | 321 | 673 | 88 | 273 | 16 | 12 | 311 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | RA12 | — | 27 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 296 | 333 | 630 | 125 | 250 | 15 | 11 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 23 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 391 | 350 | 741 | 50 | 429 | 26 | 4 | 347 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 253 | 215 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 265 | 375 | 377 | 752 | 112 | 333 | 21 | 13 | 346 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 44 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 326 | 333 | 659 | 139 | 286 | 34 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 62 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 295 | 222 | 517 | 19 | 250 | 18 | 10 | 246 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 149 | 122 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 381 | 295 | 676 | 41 | 326 | 19 | 15 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 69 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 299 | 316 | 614 | 140 | 176 | 10 | 10 | 278 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 97 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 344 | 228 | 572 | 25 | 239 | 12 | 11 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 124 | 105 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 303 | 229 | 532 | 38 | 226 | 17 | 14 | 254 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 38 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 290 | 421 | 323 | 744 | 32 | 375 | 18 | 18 | 353 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 85 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 381 | 333 | 714 | 87 | 302 | 19 | 16 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 78 | 70 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 129 | 250 | 18 | 9 | 280 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 82 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 341 | 366 | 708 | 127 | 230 | 9 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 150 | 118 | 9 | 9 | 262 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 71 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 343 | 279 | 622 | 33 | 245 | 8 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 289 | 254 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 66 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 289 | 272 | 560 | 67 | 251 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 23 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 391 | 350 | 741 | 50 | 411 | 30 | 4 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 253 | 229 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 68 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 289 | 297 | 585 | 83 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 62 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 246 | 196 | 442 | 18 | 228 | 21 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 149 | 129 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 313 | 248 | 561 | 31 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 69 | 60 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 254 | 300 | 554 | 133 | 150 | 13 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 124 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 246 | 207 | 453 | 36 | 205 | 20 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 38 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 316 | 265 | 580 | 29 | 312 | 24 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 78 | 73 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 164 | 208 | 274 | 482 | 110 | 188 | 23 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 286 | 503 | 143 | 107 | 9 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 71 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 343 | 279 | 622 | 33 | 273 | 8 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 71 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 400 | 310 | 710 | 34 | 296 | 6 | 13 | 334 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 279 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 283 | 265 | 548 | 65 | 258 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 264 | 61 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 231 | 347 | 322 | 669 | 91 | 271 | 16 | 12 | 309 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 285 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 87 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 304 | 305 | 609 | 84 | 303 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 320 | 271 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 73 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 370 | 369 | 739 | 111 | 335 | 23 | 12 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 377 | 326 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 294 | 242 | 536 | 46 | 250 | 21 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 377 | 312 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 342 | 269 | 612 | 51 | 261 | 16 | 12 | 290 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 247 | 220 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 262 | 209 | 471 | 27 | 232 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 247 | 205 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 224 | 348 | 278 | 626 | 54 | 273 | 18 | 15 | 296 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 149 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 214 | 268 | 482 | 107 | 198 | 23 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 160 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 314 | 355 | 669 | 128 | 239 | 13 | 10 | 303 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 286 | 503 | 143 | 111 | 9 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 150 | 118 | 9 | 9 | 262 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 71 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 343 | 274 | 617 | 32 | 245 | 8 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 281 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 199 | 283 | 263 | 546 | 64 | 251 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 283 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 87 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 304 | 307 | 611 | 85 | 295 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 377 | 329 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 294 | 240 | 534 | 46 | 242 | 21 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 247 | 221 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 181 | 262 | 208 | 470 | 27 | 230 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 149 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 214 | 268 | 482 | 107 | 188 | 23 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 286 | 503 | 143 | 107 | 9 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 247 | 221 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 181 | 262 | 208 | 470 | 27 | 230 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 149 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 214 | 268 | 482 | 107 | 188 | 23 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 286 | 503 | 143 | 107 | 9 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 10% | 200 | 181 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 285 | 335 | 620 | 116 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 279 | 325 | 605 | 114 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 273 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 27% | 151 | 137 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 284 | 332 | 616 | 115 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 27% | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 278 | 323 | 601 | 112 | 267 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 105 | 222 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 53 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 111 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 159 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 291 | 535 | 106 | 222 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 53 | -20 | +3 | -6 | +12 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1770 | 1573 | 317 | 53 | 6 | 16 | 135 | 399 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 202 | 283 | 273 | 556 | 72 | 257 | 23 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 116 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 147 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 201 | 283 | 272 | 555 | 71 | 255 | 23 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -20 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 23 PAwOBA .255 → .204 (−51)K% 8.7% → 10.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 4.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 10.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .204; ISO .150 → .106; BABIP .118 → .107. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 78 PAwOBA .277 → .197 (−80)K% 17.9% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.011 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.021 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 12.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.051 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .277 → .197; ISO .129 → .096; BABIP .250 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 124 PAwOBA .251 → .207 (−43)K% 16.9% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.94% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.71% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 19.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .251 → .207; ISO .038 → .032; BABIP .226 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 38 PAwOBA .345 → .258 (−87)K% 18.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.42% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 10.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 27.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .258; ISO .032 → .026; BABIP .375 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 149 PAwOBA .316 → .265 (−51)K% 19.5% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.46% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.96% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 25.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .316 → .265; ISO .041 → .034; BABIP .326 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 69 PAwOBA .279 → .227 (−52)K% 10.1% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.14% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 13.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 3.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 8.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .279 → .227; ISO .140 → .133; BABIP .176 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 62 PAwOBA .244 → .212 (−33)K% 17.7% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.74% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.137 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 1.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .244 → .212; ISO .019 → .014; BABIP .250 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 253 PAwOBA .336 → .260 (−76)K% 20.6% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷0.998 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.77% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 22.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.13% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷1.114 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .336 → .260; ISO .112 → .087; BABIP .333 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .