Alika Williams
SS Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAAPIT | 186 | .311/.386/.396 | 0 | 2 | 90 | — | .278/.337/.349 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBPIT | 96 | .207/.242/.299 | 0 | 1 | 41 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAAPIT | 391 | .268/.332/.393 | 9 | 5 | 67 | — | .233/.281/.332 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAAOAK | 145 | .323/.403/.496 | 3 | 0 | 107 | — | .275/.340/.405 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBOAK | 231 | .270/.308/.428 | 4 | 2 | 94 | 0.8 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBOAK | 239 | .230/.286/.355 | 4 | 2 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 29 | MLBOAK | 177 | .228/.283/.349 | 3 | 1 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 63 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 279 | 302 | 475 | 777 | 197 | 304 | 19 | 3 | 340 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 263 | 237 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 266 | 323 | 342 | 665 | 76 | 313 | 16 | 6 | 296 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 333 | 235 | 569 | 59 | 300 | 33 | 19 | 280 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 24 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 333 | 286 | 619 | 48 | 385 | 33 | 12 | 292 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 380 | 323 | 82 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 68 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 254 | 359 | 390 | 749 | 136 | 289 | 18 | 12 | 338 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 112 | 101 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 248 | 518 | 50 | 303 | 31 | 8 | 241 | 48 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 148 | 128 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 305 | 386 | 531 | 917 | 227 | 320 | 15 | 10 | 395 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 175 | 156 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 316 | 417 | 733 | 179 | 271 | 19 | 9 | 325 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 96 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 242 | 299 | 541 | 92 | 277 | 23 | 3 | 230 | 41 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 186 | 164 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 311 | 386 | 396 | 782 | 85 | 389 | 18 | 11 | 351 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 351 | 94 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 70 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 268 | 332 | 393 | 726 | 125 | 308 | 18 | 7 | 322 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | — | 231 | 215 | 58 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 270 | 308 | 428 | 736 | 158 | 333 | 22 | 4 | 320 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 145 | 127 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 403 | 496 | 899 | 173 | 362 | 14 | 10 | 396 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 439 | 403 | 96 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 284 | 355 | 639 | 117 | 314 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 76 | -13 | +0 | +1 | +10 | +10 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 63 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 230 | 254 | 361 | 615 | 131 | 272 | 25 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 263 | 243 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 235 | 276 | 305 | 581 | 70 | 283 | 23 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 286 | 222 | 508 | 56 | 278 | 38 | 14 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 273 | 564 | 45 | 356 | 38 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 380 | 343 | 68 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 89 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 198 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 111 | 231 | 23 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 112 | 101 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 248 | 518 | 50 | 303 | 31 | 8 | 239 | 48 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 148 | 133 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 271 | 331 | 436 | 767 | 165 | 297 | 18 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 175 | 161 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 270 | 360 | 630 | 149 | 249 | 23 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 96 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 242 | 299 | 541 | 92 | 277 | 23 | 3 | 228 | 41 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 186 | 169 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 337 | 349 | 686 | 71 | 364 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 361 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 233 | 281 | 332 | 613 | 100 | 278 | 22 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 231 | 215 | 56 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 300 | 409 | 709 | 149 | 333 | 22 | 4 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 145 | 131 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 340 | 405 | 745 | 130 | 319 | 17 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 326 | 305 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 76 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 230 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 82 | 290 | 23 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 326 | 298 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 268 | 319 | 369 | 688 | 101 | 311 | 17 | 6 | 305 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 425 | 383 | 75 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 107 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 196 | 268 | 300 | 569 | 104 | 244 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 425 | 361 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 83 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 249 | 356 | 377 | 733 | 127 | 294 | 20 | 13 | 332 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 395 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 103 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 291 | 357 | 648 | 129 | 284 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 435 | 385 | 96 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 91 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 249 | 328 | 410 | 738 | 161 | 296 | 21 | 9 | 327 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 256 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 305 | 332 | 637 | 78 | 339 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 282 | 251 | 69 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 275 | 338 | 363 | 701 | 88 | 352 | 20 | 8 | 310 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 361 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 233 | 281 | 332 | 613 | 100 | 284 | 22 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 351 | 94 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 70 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 268 | 332 | 393 | 726 | 125 | 308 | 18 | 7 | 322 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 346 | 92 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 315 | 408 | 723 | 142 | 321 | 20 | 5 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 376 | 342 | 99 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 289 | 345 | 453 | 798 | 164 | 345 | 19 | 6 | 350 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 326 | 308 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 76 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 227 | 266 | 308 | 574 | 81 | 281 | 23 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 425 | 384 | 75 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 107 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 195 | 268 | 299 | 568 | 104 | 240 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 397 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 103 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 291 | 355 | 646 | 128 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 261 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 77 | 334 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 364 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 231 | 281 | 330 | 610 | 99 | 278 | 22 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 348 | 92 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 315 | 405 | 721 | 141 | 328 | 20 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 261 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 77 | 334 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 391 | 364 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 231 | 281 | 330 | 610 | 99 | 278 | 22 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 348 | 92 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 315 | 405 | 721 | 141 | 328 | 20 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 100% | 380 | 349 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 81 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 279 | 342 | 621 | 119 | 269 | 21 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -12 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 100% | 239 | 220 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 125 | 279 | 21 | 6 | 286 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 65% | 272 | 251 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 276 | 336 | 612 | 115 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 65% | 177 | 163 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 283 | 349 | 632 | 121 | 278 | 21 | 6 | 282 | 72 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 616 | 566 | 133 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 145 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 283 | 353 | 636 | 118 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 71 | -19 | +0 | -0 | +12 | +13 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 140 | 40 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 153 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 283 | 350 | 633 | 116 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 71 | -20 | +0 | -0 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2746 | 2517 | 579 | 117 | 15 | 42 | 158 | 622 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 230 | 285 | 338 | 623 | 108 | 287 | 23 | 6 | 274 | 71 | -29 | +0 | -1 | +15 | +21 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 138 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 147 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 232 | 285 | 342 | 628 | 111 | 288 | 23 | 6 | 274 | 71 | -20 | +0 | -1 | +10 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 145 PAwOBA .389 → .327 (−61)K% 13.8% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 22.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 8.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .389 → .327; ISO .173 → .138; BABIP .362 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 391 PAwOBA .317 → .267 (−50)K% 17.9% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.90% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.91% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 23.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.91% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.07% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .317 → .267; ISO .125 → .100; BABIP .308 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 186 PAwOBA .344 → .301 (−44)K% 18.3% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.28% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 28.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .344 → .301; ISO .085 → .071; BABIP .389 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 175 PAwOBA .318 → .265 (−53)K% 19.4% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.43% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.39% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 15.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.10% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .318 → .265; ISO .179 → .143; BABIP .271 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 148 PAwOBA .387 → .327 (−60)K% 14.9% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.86% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 22.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.60% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .387 → .327; ISO .227 → .168; BABIP .320 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 380 PAwOBA .333 → .253 (−80)K% 17.9% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.89% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.37% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.38% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .333 → .253; ISO .136 → .114; BABIP .289 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 24 PAwOBA .285 → .236 (−49)K% 33.3% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.984 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 29.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.090 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 91, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .285 → .236; ISO .048 → .039; BABIP .385 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAADurham Bulls · 21 PAwOBA .275 → .218 (−56)K% 33.3% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 13.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .275 → .218; ISO .059 → .046; BABIP .300 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).