Jose Trevino

C Cincinnati Reds

Age 34 R/R 5'9" / 215 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 7.366 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBNYY	234	.215/.290/.354	8	1	78	1.7
2025	32	MLBCIN	302	.238/.276/.351	4	0	72	1.0
2026	33	MLBCIN	156	.217/.222/.336	5	0	46	-0.4
2027PROJ	34	MLBCIN	141	.222/.261/.349	3	1	67	0.2
2028PROJ	35	MLBCIN	91	.211/.248/.324	2	0	56	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.366First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV29

Bat Spd24

Barrel%19

xwOBA11

Speed10

Form.213/.242/.313 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .220/.258/.342

CompsMike Matheny (age 34) · Henry Blanco (age 33) · Jamie Burke (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6867vR 62

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .261 / .349

PA141

HR3

K%17

BB%5

BABIP246

ISO113

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

130.221

POWER40

Barrel%

194.3

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

2468.6

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1023.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▼21% over 34 PA (60d) · proj 17%

BB%4%▼0% over 34 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.100▼.000 over 34 AB (60d) · proj .122

BABIP.243·.185 over 27 BIP (60d) · proj .245

SLASH.213/.242/.313▼proj .220/.258/.342

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 536 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

183

353

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

262

288

▶R

ISO

141

116

◀◀L

BABIP

188

277

▶▶R

12.6%

16.1%

◀◀L

BB%

8.2%

5.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.366 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$5M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$4M
Totals		$5M		$0.8M	-$4M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$5.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$6.5M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	22	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	449	424	111	19	2	14	18	60	1	1	4	262	293	415	709	153	275	13	4	309	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	23	23	5	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	217	217	217	435		250	13	0	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+	High Desert Mavericks	—	465	433	131	30	0	9	26	49	2	2	1	303	345	434	779	132	322	11	6	344	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	77	74	17	4	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	230	260	365	625	135	217	4	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	423	402	97	12	0	7	19	44	0	1	2	241	276	323	599	82	256	10	4	269	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	184	43	7	1	3	13	27	1	0	1	234	288	332	619	98	255	13	6	277	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	126	120	31	9	0	2	3	27	0	0	0	258	276	383	660	125	312	21	2	285	73	-4	+0	+4	+6	+3	0.8
2019	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	156	146	33	10	0	2	8	28	0	2	0	226	266	336	602	110	263	18	5	267	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	38	36	6	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	167	211	278	488	111	152	5	5	221	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	83	76	19	8	0	2	3	15	1	0	0	250	287	434	722	184	279	18	4	306	94	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2021	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	302	285	68	14	0	5	12	57	0	1	1	239	269	340	610	102	279	19	4	269	65	-12	-0	+14	+6	+7	1.4
2021	28	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	23	21	6	2	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	286	348	524	872	238	312	17	9	381	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	353	335	83	12	1	11	15	62	2	2	1	248	284	388	672	140	274	18	4	298	85	-6	+0	+31	+6	+8	4.0
2023	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	168	157	33	4	0	4	8	22	2	0	0	210	257	312	570	102	221	13	5	257	58	-8	+0	+12	+3	+4	1.0
2024	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	234	209	45	5	0	8	20	41	2	1	0	215	290	354	644	139	228	18	9	288	78	-6	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.7
2025	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	282	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	238	276	351	627	113	259	13	5	276	72	-10	+0	+8	+5	+7	1.0
2026	33	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	152	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	217	222	336	558	118	235	19	1	241	46	-10	-0	-0	+3	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1724	1616	379	75	1	41	77	292	7	4	3	235	272	358	631	124	260	17	4	278	74	-53	-0	+83	+35	+37	10.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	449	431	95	15	2	9	11	83	1	1	4	220	242	327	569	107	247	18	2	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	465	442	114	23	0	7	17	71	2	2	1	258	289	357	646	100	285	15	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	423	410	86	10	0	5	11	56	0	1	2	210	230	271	501	61	228	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	188	38	6	1	2	9	36	1	0	1	202	242	277	519	74	223	18	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	126	120	30	8	0	2	3	27	0	0	0	250	268	367	635	117	312	21	2	276	73	-4	+0	+4	+6	+3	0.8
2019	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	156	148	27	8	0	2	6	36	0	2	0	182	214	277	491	95	218	23	4	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	38	37	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	135	158	243	401	108	113	8	3	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	83	76	19	8	0	2	3	15	1	0	0	250	287	434	722	184	279	18	4	307	94	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2021	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	302	286	69	15	0	5	11	57	0	1	1	241	269	346	616	105	279	19	4	265	65	-12	-0	+14	+6	+7	1.4
2021	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	23	22	6	2	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	273	304	500	804	227	271	22	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	353	335	82	12	1	10	15	62	2	2	1	245	281	376	657	131	274	18	4	295	85	-6	+0	+31	+6	+8	4.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	168	157	33	4	0	4	8	22	2	0	0	210	257	312	570	102	221	13	5	254	58	-8	+0	+12	+3	+4	1.0
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	234	209	44	5	0	7	20	41	2	1	0	211	286	335	621	124	228	18	9	284	78	-6	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.7
2025	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	282	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	238	276	351	627	113	259	13	5	274	72	-10	+0	+8	+5	+7	1.0
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	152	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	217	222	336	558	118	235	19	1	236	46	-10	-0	-0	+3	+3	-0.4
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	472	453	99	16	2	9	12	87	1	1	4	219	240	322	563	104	250	18	3	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	472	447	116	19	2	14	18	63	1	1	4	260	290	405	695	145	273	13	4	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	516	132	27	0	8	20	82	2	2	1	256	286	355	641	99	288	15	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	542	507	148	34	0	11	29	52	2	2	1	292	333	424	757	132	306	10	5	335	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	423	410	86	10	0	5	11	56	0	1	2	210	230	271	501	61	231	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	423	402	97	12	0	7	19	44	0	1	2	241	276	323	599	82	256	10	4	269	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	188	38	6	1	2	9	36	1	0	1	202	242	277	519	74	235	18	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	184	43	7	1	3	13	27	1	0	1	234	288	332	619	98	255	13	6	277	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	320	305	61	17	0	4	10	65	0	2	0	200	225	295	520	95	237	20	3	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	320	302	70	20	0	5	13	57	0	2	0	232	263	348	611	116	266	18	4	268	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	83	76	19	8	0	2	3	15	1	0	0	250	287	434	722	184	279	18	4	307	94	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	83	76	19	8	0	2	3	15	1	0	0	250	287	434	722	184	279	18	4	306	94	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	325	308	72	16	0	5	12	62	0	1	1	234	263	334	597	101	275	19	4	267	67	-13	-0	+14	+6	+7	1.4
2021	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	325	306	74	16	0	6	14	61	0	1	1	242	275	353	628	111	281	19	4	276	67	-13	-0	+14	+6	+7	1.4
2022	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	353	335	82	12	1	10	15	62	2	2	1	245	281	376	657	131	273	18	4	295	85	-6	+0	+31	+6	+8	4.0
2022	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	353	335	83	12	1	11	15	62	2	2	1	248	284	388	672	140	274	18	4	298	85	-6	+0	+31	+6	+8	4.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	168	157	33	4	0	4	8	22	2	0	0	210	257	312	570	102	221	13	5	254	58	-8	+0	+12	+3	+4	1.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	168	157	33	4	0	4	8	22	2	0	0	210	257	312	570	102	221	13	5	257	58	-8	+0	+12	+3	+4	1.0
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	234	209	44	5	0	7	20	41	2	1	0	211	286	335	621	124	227	18	9	284	78	-6	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.7
2024	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	234	209	45	5	0	8	20	41	2	1	0	215	290	354	644	139	228	18	9	288	78	-6	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.7
2025	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	282	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	238	276	351	627	113	259	13	5	274	72	-10	+0	+8	+5	+7	1.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	282	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	238	276	351	627	113	259	13	5	276	72	-10	+0	+8	+5	+7	1.0
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	152	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	217	222	336	558	118	235	19	1	236	46	-10	-0	-0	+3	+3	-0.4
2026	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	152	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	217	222	336	558	118	235	19	1	241	46	-10	-0	-0	+3	+3	-0.4
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	472	456	99	16	2	9	12	87	1	1	4	217	240	320	561	103	247	18	3	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	515	132	27	0	8	20	82	2	2	1	256	286	355	642	99	285	15	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	423	409	86	10	0	5	11	56	0	1	2	210	230	271	502	61	228	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	189	38	6	1	2	9	36	1	0	1	201	242	275	518	74	223	18	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	320	307	61	17	0	4	10	65	0	2	0	199	225	293	519	94	242	20	3	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	83	79	19	8	0	2	3	15	1	0	0	241	287	418	705	177	279	18	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	325	310	72	16	0	5	12	62	0	1	1	232	263	332	595	100	278	19	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	353	333	82	12	1	10	15	62	2	2	1	246	281	378	660	132	274	18	4	295	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	168	156	33	4	0	4	8	22	2	0	0	212	257	314	572	103	221	13	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	234	210	44	5	0	7	20	41	2	1	0	210	286	333	619	124	228	18	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	284	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	236	276	349	625	113	259	13	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	154	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	214	222	331	553	117	235	19	1	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	234	210	44	5	0	7	20	41	2	1	0	210	286	333	619	124	228	18	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	302	284	67	20	0	4	15	39	0	0	0	236	276	349	625	113	259	13	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	154	33	3	0	5	1	29	0	0	1	214	222	331	553	117	235	19	1	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	228	214	47	10	0	5	11	39	1	1	1	221	260	342	602	122	245	17	5	267	67	-9	-0	+3	+4	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	141	133	29	6	0	3	7	24	0	1	0	222	261	349	610	126	246	17	5	270	67	-6	+0	+2	+3	+3	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	91	87	18	4	0	2	4	16	0	0	0	209	247	318	565	109	236	18	4	252	56	-5	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	91	87	18	4	0	2	4	16	0	0	0	211	248	324	572	113	236	18	4	255	56	-5	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1815	1703	397	79	1	43	81	308	7	4	3	233	271	356	627	123	259	17	4	277	61	-58	-0	+78	+36	+39	9.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	610	141	28	0	15	29	110	3	1	1	231	269	351	620	120	257	17	4	277	61	-21	-0	+28	+13	+14	3.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3811	3611	813	154	4	70	147	636	11	11	11	225	258	328	586	103	253	17	4	258	61	-63	-0	+80	+39	+42	10.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	616	139	26	1	12	25	108	2	2	2	226	258	330	588	104	253	17	4	258	61	-21	-0	+27	+13	+14	3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 23 PAwOBA .370 → .293 (−77)K% 17.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.044	×1.220	—	—	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.098	×0.690	—	×0.958	5.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.006	×0.940	—	×0.958	15.80%
Doubles /BIP	11.76%	÷0.957	×0.870	—	×0.958	10.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.995	×0.920	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.114	×0.780	—	×0.958	3.95%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .370 → .293; ISO .238 → .180; BABIP .312 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 156 PAwOBA .263 → .208 (−55)K% 17.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.95%	÷1.015	×1.290	—	—	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.13%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×1.003	3.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.80%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	15.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.47%	÷0.967	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	6.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.069	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.33%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .263 → .208; ISO .110 → .084; BABIP .263 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Rangers · 38 PAwOBA .214 → .153 (−61)K% 5.3% → 7.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.26%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	7.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.07%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	9.07%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	1.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.16%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .214 → .153; ISO .111 → .080; BABIP .152 → .113. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 201 PAwOBA .273 → .224 (−49)K% 13.4% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷0.922	×1.220	—	—	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.47%	÷1.021	×0.700	—	×0.988	4.38%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.43%
Singles /BIP	20.38%	÷0.988	×0.920	×0.977	×0.988	18.32%
Doubles /BIP	4.46%	÷0.993	×0.840	×0.977	×0.988	3.64%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.977	×0.988	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.91%	÷1.088	×0.800	—	×0.988	1.39%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 84, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .273 → .224; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .255 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 423 PAwOBA .261 → .219 (−42)K% 10.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.40%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	13.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.26%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×0.998	2.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.79%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.014	×0.998	19.86%
Doubles /BIP	3.35%	÷1.051	×0.840	×1.014	×0.998	2.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.940	×1.014	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷1.089	×0.800	—	×0.998	1.43%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 103, K 92, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .261 → .219; ISO .082 → .062; BABIP .256 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+High Desert Mavericks · 465 PAwOBA .336 → .279 (−57)K% 10.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.54%	÷0.931	×1.340	—	—	15.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.16%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×0.988	3.60%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.34%
Singles /BIP	23.96%	÷0.996	×0.910	×1.027	×0.988	22.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.81%	÷1.075	×0.820	×1.027	×0.988	6.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.037	×0.760	×1.027	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.34%	÷1.194	×0.920	—	×0.988	1.78%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 99, 2B 115, 3B 107, K 86, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .336 → .279; ISO .132 → .099; BABIP .322 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AHickory Crawdads · 449 PAwOBA .302 → .245 (−58)K% 13.4% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.36%	÷0.967	×1.340	—	—	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.01%	÷1.042	×0.660	—	×0.990	2.51%
HBP% /PA	0.22%	—	×0.770	—	×0.990	0.17%
Singles /BIP	20.88%	÷0.981	×0.920	×1.000	×0.990	19.38%
Doubles /BIP	5.22%	÷0.971	×0.820	×1.000	×0.990	4.37%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷0.910	×0.940	×1.000	×0.990	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.229	×0.820	—	×0.990	2.54%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 82, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .302 → .245; ISO .153 → .109; BABIP .275 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
/162	664	17	0	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	2.9	1,956	46	5	232	267	355	+32	+92	2.4	2.6
/162	664	16	2	+10.8	+31.1	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Bob Melvin'85-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,095 PA	3.2	2,095	35	4	231*	266*	358*	+33	+0	1.1	1.6
/162	664	11	1	+10.4	+0.2	0.3	pk7: 2
#5Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Trevino (OGILVIE)	34	45	40	30	45	219/258/339	121	245	3	1	17%	5%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Matheny 2005 · MLB	34	49→52	41→45	37→30	45	238/281/339	101	277	9	2	18%	5%	74	-0.5	235/277/370	135	271	14	3	19%	5%	81	-0.1	229/269/373	143	261	14	0	18%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Henry Blanco 2005 · MLB	33	41	47→50	35→40	48	207/260/344	138	224	15	3	16%	6%	69	-0.9	232/279/377	145	253	16	3	15%	6%	83	+0.1	254/304/390	137	291	14	0	18%	7%	96	+0.4
✕Jamie Burke 2006 · MLB	34	49→45	43→45	39→30	48	237/299/347	110	266	10	4	15%	6%	84	+0.2	237/285/344	107	263	10	4	14%	5%	78	-0.3	237/286/309	72	276	5	0	15%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Jesus Rivera 2012 · AAA	34	49→52	39→40	36→40	51	231/279/317	86	247	7	3	10%	6%	68	-1.0	229/270/310	81	266	7	5	16%	5%	63	-1.3	259/304/311	52	303	1	4	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Bobby Wilson 2017 · MLB	34	43→52	43→50	40	42	215/261/312	98	267	12	3	24%	6%	61	-1.5	196/250/316	120	245	15	3	26%	6%	59	-1.7	167/222/277	110	205	14	0	26%	6%	39	-1.1
✕Chad Moeller 2007 · MLB	32	40	44→50	38→30	44	203/258/316	113	245	12	3	23%	6%	61	-1.5	208/262/318	110	260	11	4	24%	6%	63	-1.3	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Nick Green 2013 · MLB	34	42→46	46→50	42→45	41	215/261/349	134	257	14	5	23%	4%	70	-0.8	201/249/317	116	260	13	6	27%	5%	59	-1.7	161/207/246	84	213	10	1	29%	4%	24	-2.9
✕Chris Heintz 2007 · MLB	32	51→52	40	36→40	42	246/277/336	91	296	7	3	20%	4%	72	-0.7	229/267/306	77	277	6	5	19%	5%	61	-1.5	220/258/270	50	265	3	1	18%	4%	48	-0.9
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2014 · MLB	34	45→50	44→45	40→45	50	218/275/334	116	235	11	5	14%	7%	72	-0.7	229/284/330	101	263	10	7	16%	6%	74	-0.5	267/314/333	66	308	7	4	15%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Hector Paez 2010 · AAA	32	49	43→45	36→40	41	241/275/350	110	270	11	4	16%	3%	76	-0.4	220/248/313	93	240	10	6	13%	3%	56	-1.9	223/254/311	88	241	10	2	12%	2%	57	-0.7
✕Matt Treanor 2011 · MLB	35	44	42→40	42→40	51	217/292/318	101	250	11	5	18%	8%	75	-0.5	213/311/316	103	260	10	7	21%	11%	82	+0.0	192/310/272	79	243	7	5	22%	12%	71	-0.3
✕Wil Nieves 2013 · MLB	35	46→56	41→40	42→40	41	225/255/317	92	265	10	5	20%	4%	59	-1.6	246/280/335	89	303	7	5	20%	4%	73	-0.6	267/294/341	74	328	3	2	19%	3%	80	-0.0
✕Humberto Quintero 2014 · MLB	34	46	44→45	43→40	40	230/266/349	119	276	12	4	22%	4%	72	-0.7	229/259/336	107	282	11	5	22%	3%	65	-1.2	228/248/318	89	282	9	4	22%	2%	54	-1.0
✕Carlos Valencia 2014 · AAA	34	45→55	47→55	38→40	39	229/257/368	139	264	15	4	20%	3%	73	-0.6	206/239/320	114	240	14	4	21%	4%	55	-2.0	195/227/283	87	234	12	3	22%	4%	41	-1.6
✕Dave Berg 2005 · MLB	34	51→56	44→45	38→40	46	251/296/365	114	286	12	3	17%	5%	86	+0.3	241/299/330	89	285	7	4	17%	7%	79	-0.2	248/310/317	69	295	3	1	16%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jonathan Aceves 2011 · AAA	33	41	44→50	40→30	42	207/250/318	111	253	13	4	24%	5%	59	-1.7	215/264/346	131	269	15	5	25%	6%	70	-0.8	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Luis Carlos Martinez 2006 · AAA	32	51	39→40	36→45	44	245/277/328	83	276	6	8	14%	4%	70	-0.8	247/271/324	77	273	6	9	12%	3%	66	-1.1	252/270/313	61	277	5	8	11%	2%	60	-0.8
✕Sean Kazmar Jr. 2019 · AAA	34	45→51	39→45	43→45	42	217/248/297	80	242	7	6	14%	3%	53	-2.1	209/251/319	110	235	12	6	17%	4%	59	-1.6	190/232/303	114	210	14	3	18%	4%	46	-1.5
✕Chad Mottola 2006 · MLB	34	39→41	50	39→45	41	208/250/361	153	241	19	5	23%	5%	69	-0.9	215/253/361	146	259	17	8	24%	5%	70	-0.8	211/248/355	144	252	17	8	24%	4%	64	-1.0

Jose Trevino

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps