Bryan Rincon — OGILVIE

Bryan RinconSS Reading Fightin Phils

Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION315 act + 210 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .298 / .339

PA210

HR5

SB12

K%28

BB%10

BABIP267

ISO137

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.2	$12M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$10M	+$6M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+1.8	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$24M		$69M	+$56M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	36	5	1	0	2	4	10	1	4	0	139	244	333	577	194	125	24	10	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	34	6	2	0	2	6	7	1	4	0	176	317	412	729	235	160	17	14	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	425	353	74	15	1	7	53	104	9	27	14	210	328	317	645	108	267	24	12	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	425	338	79	17	1	8	68	76	9	27	14	234	376	361	737	127	270	18	16	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	213	186	29	11	0	3	24	86	1	16	0	156	256	263	519	108	263	40	11	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	213	178	35	11	1	2	32	59	1	16	0	197	322	303	626	107	277	28	15	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	411	369	52	10	2	5	32	157	4	44	6	141	217	220	437	79	225	38	8	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	411	343	57	13	2	7	58	118	4	44	6	166	294	277	571	111	227	29	14	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	PHI	—	315	270	61	12	2	11	36	80	6	21	3	226	330	407	738	181	275	25	11	322	105	+2	+3	+0	+3	+9	1.7
YTD	22	AA	PHI	—	315	254	65	14	2	12	52	62	6	21	3	256	394	469	863	213	290	20	17	382	151	+18	+3	+0	+3	+9	3.4
ROS	22	AA	PHI	2%	210	183	37	8	1	5	22	59	3	12	2	202	298	339	637	137	257	28	10	287	78	-5	+2	+1	+2	+6	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						259	25	0	278	71	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	AA	PHI	—	319	274	61	12	2	11	36	81	6	21	3	223	326	401	727	179	270	25	11	321	104	+2	+3	+0	+3	+9	1.7
TOT	22	AA	PHI	—	525	453	98	20	3	16	58	139	9	33	5	216	317	380	697	163	272	26	11	308	94	-4	+5	+1	+6	+15	2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	PHI	35%	448	392	80	16	2	12	47	123	6	22	4	204	299	347	646	143	261	27	10	291	81	-10	+3	+2	+5	+13	1.3
2028	24	MLB	PHI	47%	490	429	89	18	2	13	51	132	7	24	4	207	302	350	651	142	265	27	10	298	86	-8	+3	+2	+5	+14	1.7
2029	25	MLB	PHI	52%	544	475	100	20	3	15	57	144	7	27	4	211	304	360	664	149	267	26	10	302	89	-7	+4	+3	+6	+15	2.1
2030	26	MLB	PHI	54%	543	474	102	20	3	16	57	143	7	27	4	215	309	371	680	156	267	26	10	303	90	-6	+4	+3	+6	+15	2.2
2031	27	MLB	PHI	54%	539	470	100	20	2	16	57	142	7	27	4	213	307	366	673	153	267	26	11	303	90	-6	+4	+3	+6	+15	2.2
2032	28	MLB	PHI	54%	532	463	98	20	2	15	57	141	7	25	4	212	307	361	668	149	267	27	11	303	90	-6	+3	+2	+6	+15	2.0
2033	29	MLB	PHI	53%	524	455	96	19	2	15	57	140	7	23	4	211	308	360	669	149	266	27	11	301	88	-7	+3	+1	+6	+15	1.8
2034	30	MLB	PHI	52%	498	435	90	18	2	14	54	135	6	20	3	207	303	354	657	147	265	27	11	298	86	-8	+3	+0	+5	+14	1.5
2035	31	MLB	PHI	52%	484	423	86	17	2	13	52	132	6	17	3	203	299	345	645	142	263	27	11	295	84	-9	+2	-0	+5	+14	1.2
2036	32	MLB	PHI	52%	466	407	82	16	2	12	50	129	6	13	2	201	298	339	637	138	260	28	11	289	80	-11	+2	-1	+5	+13	0.8
2027	23	MLB	PHI	35%	158	138	29	6	1	4	17	44	2	8	1	210	306	355	661	145	264	28	11	284	75	-4	+1	+1	+2	+4	0.4
2028	24	MLB	PHI	47%	228	199	42	9	1	6	24	61	3	11	2	211	305	357	662	146	267	27	11	290	80	-5	+1	+1	+2	+6	0.6
2029	25	MLB	PHI	52%	282	246	53	11	1	8	30	75	4	14	2	215	311	366	677	150	269	27	11	294	83	-5	+2	+1	+3	+8	0.9
2030	26	MLB	PHI	54%	295	258	55	11	1	9	31	78	4	15	2	213	307	368	675	155	269	26	11	296	85	-5	+2	+1	+3	+8	1.0
2031	27	MLB	PHI	54%	293	256	55	11	1	9	31	77	4	15	2	215	309	371	680	156	269	26	11	296	85	-5	+2	+1	+3	+8	1.0
2032	28	MLB	PHI	54%	289	252	53	11	1	8	31	77	4	14	2	210	307	357	664	147	269	27	11	295	84	-5	+2	+1	+3	+8	0.9
2033	29	MLB	PHI	53%	278	242	51	10	1	8	30	74	4	12	2	211	308	360	667	149	268	27	11	293	83	-5	+2	+1	+3	+8	0.8
2034	30	MLB	PHI	52%	261	228	48	10	1	7	28	71	3	10	2	211	305	355	660	145	267	27	11	291	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2035	31	MLB	PHI	52%	252	220	45	9	1	7	27	69	3	9	1	205	300	350	650	145	265	27	11	287	78	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.5
2036	32	MLB	PHI	52%	241	210	42	8	1	6	26	67	3	7	1	200	297	333	630	133	262	28	11	282	74	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2581	2253	473	96	10	72	275	694	34	115	17	210	305	357	663	147	268	27	11	291	81	-55	+16	+7	+28	+73	7.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	119	24	3	18	69	175	9	29	4	210	305	358	663	148	268	27	11	291	81	-14	+4	+2	+7	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	6369	5550	1120	229	26	163	674	1777	84	328	58	202	298	341	638	139	262	28	11	289	79	-151	+42	+16	+68	+180	15.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	115	23	3	17	69	181	9	33	6	203	300	345	644	141	263	28	11	289	79	-15	+4	+2	+7	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	34	6	2	0	2	6	7	1	4	0	176	317	412	729	235	160	17	14	321	103	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	77	62	16	4	0	0	9	13	3	4	4	258	378	323	701	65	308	17	12	318	101	+0	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	348	276	63	13	1	8	59	63	6	23	10	228	375	370	745	141	261	18	17	338	117	+7	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	140	114	23	9	0	2	23	44	1	8	0	202	341	333	674	132	300	31	16	310	95	-1	+2	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	73	64	12	2	1	0	9	15	0	8	0	188	288	250	538	62	245	21	12	255	53	-4	+2	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	21	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	359	299	54	13	2	6	50	103	4	40	5	181	306	298	604	117	250	29	14	279	72	-12	+6	—	—	+10	0.5
2025	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	52	44	3	0	0	1	8	15	0	4	1	68	212	136	348	68	71	29	15	182	-2	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,583	72	115	210	302	358	+28	+20	7.5	6.9
	/162	664	18	29	210	302	358	+7.1	+5.1	1.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Rincon (OGILVIE)	22	20→34	40→42	50	60	216/317/380	163	272	16	33	26%	11%	94	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	40→45	54→60	55	161/294/251	90	257	7	24	35%	14%	59	-1.1	189/306/294	105	299	8	20	35%	12%	73	-0.1	189/308/299	110	300	9	21	35%	12%	73	-0.1
✕Samad Taylor 2021 · A	23	36→46	40→50	52→65	43	176/254/274	98	271	7	22	35%	8%	45	-2.1	230/301/375	145	329	17	34	33%	8%	90	+1.0	239/314/383	144	329	16	46	30%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Felix Valerio 2023 · AA	22	41→46	44→45	53→55	48	205/275/321	115	245	12	23	21%	8%	66	-0.6	202/264/305	103	268	10	16	27%	7%	56	-1.3	190/252/280	90	261	8	13	29%	6%	41	-1.0
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	45	52→65	39	191/248/311	120	257	14	21	31%	6%	51	-1.7	219/287/347	128	293	11	39	27%	8%	77	+0.1	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40→45	55→65	40	189/270/275	87	300	7	31	37%	8%	53	-1.5	224/290/323	99	311	6	26	28%	7%	72	-0.2	245/309/346	101	327	3	32	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Jason Taylor 2010 · A	22	44→39	45	52→55	49	219/291/341	122	268	12	21	23%	8%	77	+0.1	208/258/316	108	272	10	13	26%	6%	56	-1.3	142/167/229	87	185	9	6	29%	2%	-7	-1.1
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	38→41	45	54→55	44	193/273/319	127	275	13	17	33%	8%	65	-0.7	202/283/330	128	276	13	17	30%	8%	72	-0.2	194/281/320	126	262	13	19	29%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Blake Perkins 2019 · A	22	44→51	39→50	51→55	44	211/276/292	81	297	7	17	30%	8%	58	-1.2	198/265/301	103	284	10	16	32%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Roman Quinn 2015 · A	22	47→53	42→45	55→65	44	228/295/328	100	309	10	28	28%	7%	76	+0.0	243/297/340	97	331	7	35	27%	6%	78	+0.2	244/301/381	137	331	12	48	28%	7%	88	+0.3
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	67	-0.5	235/295/331	96	314	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.0	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39	44→45	59→60	43	191/272/302	111	287	11	31	35%	8%	60	-1.0	201/274/322	121	279	12	35	31%	8%	66	-0.6	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	37→44	39→45	55→60	42	180/250/266	86	268	7	25	34%	8%	40	-2.4	205/275/310	105	272	10	30	27%	8%	62	-0.9	206/277/305	99	268	10	33	25%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	42→50	52→55	42	203/265/309	106	263	10	18	26%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/357	150	272	17	18	30%	7%	74	-0.1	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Wilmer Difo 2014 · A	22	43→53	39→45	53→55	49	207/273/291	84	260	6	18	22%	8%	56	-1.3	246/284/355	109	296	9	24	19%	4%	76	+0.1	251/289/354	103	300	8	28	19%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Oliver Dominguez 2011 · A	22	42	42→40	52→45	48	209/275/312	103	265	10	16	25%	8%	63	-0.9	192/261/285	93	274	7	10	30%	8%	50	-1.8	175/246/264	89	254	7	8	32%	8%	35	-1.3
✕Cole Tucker 2019 · AA	23	45→46	40→45	56→55	45	217/278/311	93	285	6	26	25%	7%	63	-0.9	217/277/331	114	284	9	15	25%	7%	68	-0.5	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	39→49	50	53→55	42	205/263/357	153	269	17	14	31%	7%	70	-0.3	221/270/363	142	283	16	22	27%	6%	74	-0.1	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4