Bryan Rincon

SS Reading Fightin Phils
Age 23 S/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP45OGV rank#59ETA2028MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420A+/INTL2 orgs213.197/.322/.30321651—.156/.254/.262
202521A+/INTL2 orgs411.166/.294/.27774419—.137/.215/.218
202622AAPHI534.267/.413/.5172630123—.244/.357/.448
2027PROJMLE23MLBPHI4.215/.314/.38200950.0
2028PROJ43% MLB24MLBPHI199.219/.317/.39079980.8
2029PROJ62% MLB25MLBPHI299.221/.318/.3941013991.3
Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$10M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%96
Chase%92
wOBA91
wRC+90
ISO90
Whiff%78
Career WAR1.6 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 30, comp-based) · star 12% · didn't stick 52%
CompsBo Naylor (age 23) · Anthony Volpe (age 23) · Jakob Marsee (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†95
AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .314 / .382
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%11
BABIP271
ISO170
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +1.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.01.02.00.00.81.31.51.51.41.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.3$9M+$8M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.5$10M+$9M
2031Arb-1$5M+1.5$9M+$6M
2032Arb-2$7M+1.4$8M+$3M
2033Arb-3$10M+1.1$6M+$0.3M
Totals $25M $44M +$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202218 ROKFCL Phillies — 4234 6202 671 40 176317412729 235160 1714 321 42 — — — — — —
202319 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 7762 16400 9133 44 258378323701 65308 1712 318 68 — — — — — —
202319 AClearwater Threshers — 348276 631318 59636 2310 228375370745 141261 1817 338 81 — — — — — —
202420 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 140114 23902 23441 80 202341333674 132300 3116 310 47 — — — — — —
202420 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 7364 12210 9150 80 188288250538 62245 2112 255 59 — — — — — —
202521 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 359299 541326 501034 405 181306298604 117250 2914 279 21 — — — — — —
202521 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 5244 3001 8150 41 68212136348 6871 2915 182 9 — — — — — —
202622 AAReading Fightin Phils — 534424 11324226 9511111 304 267413517930 250299 2118 408 123 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202218 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 4236 5102 4101 40 139244333577 194117 2410 231 42 — — — — — —
202319 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 7765 14300 6173 44 215311262572 46268 228 268 68 — — — — — —
202319 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 348291 601117 44846 2310 206323323646 117247 2413 288 81 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 140122 19702 15561 80 156254262516 107257 4011 237 47 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 359321 44915 281354 405 137215218433 81208 388 199 21 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 534451 11022222 6813611 304 244357448804 204292 2513 350 123 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 4236 5102 4101 40 139244333577 194125 2410 231 42 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAWFCL Phillies — 4234 6202 671 40 176317412729 235160 1714 321 42 — — — — — —
202319 A MLE2 teams — 425356 751517 501019 2714 211323317640 107265 2412 284 79 — — — — — —
202319 A RAW2 teams — 425338 791718 68769 2714 234376361737 127270 1816 334 79 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 213187 301103 23861 160 160256267523 107270 4011 237 47 — — — — — —
202420 A+ RAW2 teams — 213178 351112 32591 160 197322303626 107277 2815 291 47 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 411369 521126 321544 446 141217230448 89218 378 199 21 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAW2 teams — 411343 571327 581184 446 166294277571 111227 2914 267 21 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 534451 11022222 6813611 304 244357448804 204296 2513 350 123 — — — — — —
202622 AA RAWReading Fightin Phils — 534424 11324226 9511111 304 267413517930 250299 2118 408 123 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 4237 5102 4101 40 135244324568 189117 2410 231 42 — — — — — —
202319 A MLE2 teams — 425363 751517 501019 2714 207323311634 105251 2412 284 79 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 213187 301103 23861 160 160256267523 107257 4011 237 47 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 411372 521126 321544 446 140217228446 89208 378 199 21 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 534450 11022222 6813611 304 244357449805 204292 2513 350 123 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 213187 301103 23861 160 160256267523 107257 4011 237 47 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 411372 521126 321544 446 140217228446 89208 378 199 21 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 534450 11022222 6813611 304 244357449805 204292 2513 350 123 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEPHI 2% 555480 10221217 621538 253 213312373686 161270 2811 309 95 -3 +4 +1 +6 +12 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXPHI 2% 44 0000 010 00 215314382697 167271 250 313 95 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEPHI 43% 461400 8718215 511257 213 216315381696 164272 2711 313 98 -1 +3 +1 +5 +10 1.8
202925 MLB MLEPHI 62% 479416 9219216 531297 223 218316384701 166273 2711 314 99 -1 +3 +2 +5 +10 2.1
203026 MLB MLEPHI 71% 483420 9319216 531287 213 220317385702 166274 2711 315 99 -0 +3 +2 +5 +10 2.1
203127 MLB MLEPHI 74% 483422 9219215 521286 213 220316384700 164275 2711 314 99 -1 +3 +2 +5 +10 2.0
203228 MLB MLEPHI 75% 480419 9219215 521276 193 220314381695 161275 2611 312 97 -2 +3 +1 +5 +10 1.8
203329 MLB MLEPHI 74% 470411 8918214 501266 162 217312375686 157274 2711 309 95 -3 +2 +1 +5 +10 1.6
203430 MLB MLEPHI 73% 460402 8717214 491256 132 215308367676 153272 2711 304 92 -4 +2 -0 +5 +10 1.3
203531 MLB MLEPHI 72% 445390 8217113 471225 81 211304358661 147269 2711 299 88 -6 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.9
203632 MLB MLEPHI 72% 423371 7515111 441185 41 205298345643 140265 2810 291 83 -8 +0 -2 +5 +9 0.4
203733 MLB MLEPHI 72% 387340 6813110 401114 11 199290330621 131260 2910 282 77 -11 -0 -2 +4 +8 -0.1
202824 MLB CTXPHI 43% 199172 38717 22543 91 219317390707 171273 2711 317 98 -1 +1 +1 +2 +4 0.8
202925 MLB CTXPHI 62% 299260 5611110 33804 132 221318394712 173274 2711 319 99 -0 +2 +1 +3 +6 1.3
203026 MLB CTXPHI 71% 345299 6613112 38925 152 222319395714 173275 2711 319 99 -0 +2 +2 +4 +7 1.5
203127 MLB CTXPHI 74% 355308 6813112 39945 152 222318393711 171275 2611 318 99 -1 +2 +2 +4 +8 1.5
203228 MLB CTXPHI 75% 359312 6914112 39955 142 222316390706 168275 2611 316 97 -1 +2 +1 +4 +8 1.4
203329 MLB CTXPHI 74% 346302 6613111 37934 122 220314384697 164274 2711 313 95 -2 +2 +1 +4 +7 1.1
203430 MLB CTXPHI 73% 335292 6312111 36914 91 217310376686 159272 2711 308 92 -3 +1 -0 +4 +7 0.9
203531 MLB CTXPHI 72% 322281 6012110 34894 61 213305366671 153269 2811 302 88 -5 +1 -1 +3 +7 0.6
203632 MLB CTXPHI 72% 305267 561119 32853 31 207299353652 146265 2810 295 83 -6 +0 -1 +3 +7 0.3
203733 MLB CTXPHI 72% 279245 50918 29803 10 201292337629 136260 2910 285 77 -8 +0 -2 +3 +6 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 31442738 59211510102 33985340 9714 216312377689 161272 2711 309 88 -26 +14 +3 +34 +68 9.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650566 12224221 701768 203 216311376687 161271 2711 309 88 -5 +3 +1 +7 +14 1.9
Career— MLE — 64065572 116824223186 691178488 27747 210307361668 152270 2811 299 88 -38 +22 +5 +51 +104 14.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650565 11925219 701819 285 211307363670 152271 2811 299 88 -5 +3 +1 +7 +14 2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 534 PAwOBA .400 → .350 (−50)K% 20.8% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.79%÷1.000×1.220——25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.60%÷1.000×0.700—×1.04212.84%
HBP% /PA2.06%—×0.850—×1.0421.82%
Singles /BIP19.49%÷1.000×0.970×1.015×1.04219.99%
Doubles /BIP7.67%÷1.000×0.860×1.015×1.0426.97%
Triples /BIP0.64%÷1.000×0.950×1.015×1.0420.64%
Home runs /BIP8.31%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0426.75%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .400 → .350; ISO .250 → .215; BABIP .299 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 359 PAwOBA .274 → .199 (−75)K% 28.7% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.69%÷1.002×1.310——37.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.93%÷1.093×0.600—×1.0277.85%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.770—×1.0270.88%
Singles /BIP16.84%÷0.966×0.870×0.960×1.02714.95%
Doubles /BIP6.63%÷1.073×0.780×0.960×1.0274.75%
Triples /BIP1.02%÷1.150×0.850×0.960×1.0270.74%
Home runs /BIP3.06%÷1.045×0.880—×1.0272.65%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .274 → .199; ISO .117 → .092; BABIP .250 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 140 PAwOBA .307 → .237 (−70)K% 31.4% → 40.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.43%÷1.023×1.310——40.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.43%÷0.972×0.600—×1.04210.57%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.770—×1.0420.57%
Singles /BIP17.14%÷1.035×0.870×1.012×1.04215.19%
Doubles /BIP12.86%÷1.000×0.780×1.012×1.04210.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.946×0.850×1.012×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP2.86%÷0.926×0.880—×1.0422.83%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .307 → .237; ISO .132 → .114; BABIP .300 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 348 PAwOBA .336 → .288 (−48)K% 18.1% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.10%÷1.020×1.360——24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.95%÷0.972×0.690—×1.04512.58%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.780—×1.0451.41%
Singles /BIP19.25%÷0.965×0.920×0.988×1.04518.96%
Doubles /BIP6.10%÷1.002×0.830×0.988×1.0455.22%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.056×0.910×0.988×1.0450.42%
Home runs /BIP3.76%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0453.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .336 → .288; ISO .141 → .121; BABIP .261 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 77 PAwOBA .323 → .268 (−55)K% 16.9% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.88%÷0.993×1.310——22.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.69%÷0.973×0.600—×1.0507.57%
HBP% /PA3.90%—×0.770—×1.0503.15%
Singles /BIP24.49%÷1.006×0.870×0.986×1.05021.94%
Doubles /BIP8.16%÷1.034×0.780×0.986×1.0506.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.071×0.850×0.986×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.858×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .323 → .268; ISO .065 → .053; BABIP .308 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Phillies · 42 PAwOBA .312 → .231 (−81)K% 16.7% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.004×1.440——23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷0.989×0.620—×1.0229.16%
HBP% /PA2.38%—×0.720—×1.0221.75%
Singles /BIP7.41%÷0.981×0.820—×1.0226.33%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷1.178×0.720—×1.0224.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷0.947×0.780—×1.0226.24%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .312 → .231; ISO .235 → .188; BABIP .160 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .