Bryan Rincon — OGILVIE

Bryan RinconSS Reading Fightin Phils

Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2030

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .274 / .297

PA320

HR6

SB24

K%33

BB%10

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20↗34

PWR

40↗42

SPD

50→50

FLD

50↗60

EYE

50↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$14M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$12M	+$7M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.0	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$15M		$79M	+$64M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	42	36	5	1	0	2	4	10	1	4	0	.139	.244	.333	.577	.194	.125	24	10	.235	38	-3	+1	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2023	19	A	2 teams	425	354	73	15	1	7	52	103	9	27	14	.206	.323	.314	.636	.107	.261	24	12	.288	79	-10	-0	+0	+5	+12	0.6
2024	20	A+	2 teams	213	188	29	11	0	3	22	85	1	16	0	.154	.246	.261	.507	.106	.255	40	10	.230	34	-16	+3	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
2025	21	A+	2 teams	411	370	50	10	1	6	31	154	4	44	6	.135	.210	.216	.426	.081	.208	37	8	.193	6	-44	+6	+0	+4	+12	-2.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	68	61	11	2	1	2	5	23	2	10	0	.180	.265	.344	.609	.164	.250	34	7	.261	58	-3	+2	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	252	223	42	9	1	5	23	83	4	14	2	.188	.276	.305	.581	.117	.268	33	9	.265	61	-11	+2	+1	+3	+7	0.2
TOT	22	MLB	PHI	320	284	53	11	2	7	28	106	6	24	2	.187	.274	.313	.587	.127	.267	33	9	.264	60	-14	+4	+1	+3	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 12%	PHI	427	376	75	16	2	9	42	120	6	20	3	.199	.290	.324	.615	.125	.263	28	10	.280	73	-13	+3	+2	+5	+12	0.9
2028	24	MLB 27%	PHI	476	418	85	18	2	11	48	131	7	19	2	.203	.296	.335	.631	.132	.266	28	10	.288	78	-12	+3	+2	+5	+13	1.3
2029	25	MLB 44%	PHI	501	438	91	19	2	12	51	136	7	18	2	.208	.300	.342	.643	.135	.268	27	10	.293	82	-10	+3	+3	+5	+14	1.5
2030	26	MLB 59%	PHI	514	449	94	20	2	13	53	138	7	16	2	.209	.303	.350	.652	.140	.269	27	10	.295	84	-9	+2	+3	+6	+15	1.6
2031	27	MLB 77%	PHI	518	452	95	20	2	13	54	140	7	15	2	.210	.304	.350	.654	.139	.269	27	10	.295	84	-9	+2	+3	+6	+15	1.6
2032	28	MLB 84%	PHI	515	449	94	20	2	13	54	140	7	13	1	.209	.304	.350	.654	.140	.269	27	10	.294	83	-10	+2	+2	+6	+15	1.5
2033	29	MLB 91%	PHI	507	442	91	19	2	12	53	139	7	11	1	.206	.301	.339	.640	.133	.268	27	10	.292	82	-11	+2	+1	+5	+14	1.2
2034	30	MLB	PHI	497	435	89	19	2	12	52	138	7	10	0	.205	.300	.340	.640	.136	.266	28	10	.289	79	-12	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.0
2035	31	MLB	PHI	484	424	85	18	2	11	51	137	6	8	0	.200	.295	.330	.625	.130	.265	28	11	.285	76	-13	+2	-0	+5	+14	0.7
2036	32	MLB	PHI	465	407	80	17	2	10	49	134	6	6	0	.197	.292	.322	.614	.125	.263	29	11	.280	73	-14	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.4
2037	33	MLB	PHI	436	381	74	15	2	9	46	128	6	5	0	.194	.291	.315	.606	.121	.261	29	11	.275	69	-15	+1	-2	+5	+12	0.1
2038	34	MLB	PHI	390	342	63	13	1	7	40	118	5	4	0	.184	.279	.289	.569	.105	.259	30	10	.269	64	-16	+1	-3	+4	+11	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7073	6184	1215	260	26	155	725	2034	97	250	35	.196	.291	.322	.613	.126	.263	29	10	.279	71	-228	+36	+10	+76	+200	9.6
/ 162G	—			650	568	111	24	2	14	67	187	9	23	3	.195	.290	.319	.609	.123	.261	29	10	.279	71	-21	+3	+1	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	42	34	6	2	0	2	6	7	1	4	0	.176	.317	.412	.729	.235	.160	17	14	.321	103	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	77	62	16	4	0	0	9	13	3	4	4	.258	.378	.323	.701	.065	.308	17	12	.318	101	+0	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	348	276	63	13	1	8	59	63	6	23	10	.228	.375	.370	.745	.141	.261	18	17	.338	117	+7	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	140	114	23	9	0	2	23	44	1	8	0	.202	.341	.333	.674	.132	.300	31	16	.310	95	-1	+2	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	73	64	12	2	1	0	9	15	0	8	0	.188	.288	.250	.538	.062	.245	21	12	.255	53	-4	+2	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	21	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	359	299	54	13	2	6	50	103	4	40	5	.181	.306	.298	.604	.117	.250	29	14	.279	72	-12	+6	—	—	+10	0.5
2025	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	52	44	3	0	0	1	8	15	0	4	1	.068	.212	.136	.348	.068	.071	29	15	.182	-2	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Rincon (OGILVIE)	22	20→34	40→42	50	60	.187/.274/.297	.110	.272	6	13	33%	10%	60	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	35	41→45	54→55	54	.169/.297/.268	.099	.266	8	23	35%	14%	64	-0.8	.189/.306/.297	.108	.297	8	20	34%	13%	74	-0.1	.191/.310/.302	.111	.299	9	21	34%	12%	74	-0.0
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	39	46→45	54→55	45	.196/.282/.327	.131	.279	14	17	33%	9%	71	-0.3	.195/.278/.316	.121	.271	12	17	31%	9%	66	-0.6	.183/.271/.296	.112	.254	11	19	30%	9%	55	-0.8
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	37→35	44→45	48→50	47	.188/.265/.299	.111	.257	12	13	30%	9%	56	-1.3	.186/.265/.284	.098	.270	9	13	32%	9%	53	-1.5	.142/.231/.224	.082	.210	8	12	34%	9%	22	-1.5
✕Samad Taylor 2021 · A	23	37→47	41→50	53→65	44	.181/.257/.285	.104	.262	8	23	32%	8%	49	-1.8	.226/.297/.368	.142	.326	16	33	33%	8%	87	+0.8	.236/.312/.377	.141	.324	16	46	30%	9%	94	+0.8
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	40	42→45	50→55	41	.172/.280/.276	.105	.337	10	18	46%	10%	58	-1.2	.187/.287/.297	.110	.339	11	16	43%	10%	66	-0.6	.170/.275/.273	.103	.306	12	18	43%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40	54→65	40	.192/.269/.282	.090	.299	8	28	36%	7%	53	-1.5	.216/.284/.315	.099	.302	7	27	29%	7%	67	-0.5	.225/.290/.320	.095	.304	4	32	25%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2019 · AA	22	39→41	43→45	50	39	.195/.253/.309	.114	.291	11	14	36%	7%	53	-1.5	.200/.267/.298	.098	.322	9	14	37%	8%	56	-1.3	.190/.260/.269	.080	.317	7	15	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	40→47	39→40	53→60	49	.186/.290/.271	.084	.288	7	16	34%	11%	60	-1.0	.204/.296/.285	.081	.295	5	22	29%	10%	66	-0.6	.215/.301/.289	.073	.310	4	35	29%	9%	66	-0.3
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39→42	43→45	58→60	44	.194/.275/.303	.109	.285	11	30	34%	8%	61	-1.0	.204/.277/.322	.118	.283	12	35	30%	8%	67	-0.5	.200/.273/.320	.120	.271	12	40	29%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Oliver Dominguez 2011 · A	22	43	41→40	51→45	48	.210/.277/.310	.100	.270	9	15	25%	8%	63	-0.8	.198/.269/.291	.093	.276	7	11	28%	9%	55	-1.4	.183/.255/.274	.091	.261	6	8	30%	8%	42	-1.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	44→45	51→60	39	.187/.243/.297	.111	.259	12	21	32%	6%	46	-2.0	.218/.284/.349	.131	.292	12	37	28%	7%	76	+0.1	.226/.298/.368	.142	.297	13	49	27%	8%	84	+0.6
✕Evan Chambers 2011 · A	22	39→35	45→40	49→50	48	.200/.281/.320	.120	.263	13	19	28%	9%	68	-0.5	.181/.270/.276	.095	.276	9	15	34%	10%	53	-1.5	.159/.256/.235	.077	.256	6	15	37%	10%	36	-2.0
✕Jose Acosta 2023 · A	23	39	45	49→55	36	.194/.252/.316	.122	.300	13	15	38%	6%	54	-1.4	.192/.244/.301	.109	.280	11	16	34%	6%	46	-2.0	.168/.215/.260	.093	.234	9	22	31%	5%	20	-1.0
✕Blake Perkins 2019 · A	22	44→52	38→50	51→55	45	.208/.275/.286	.078	.293	6	17	29%	8%	56	-1.3	.196/.265/.290	.094	.285	9	16	32%	8%	53	-1.5	.228/.311/.359	.130	.302	13	25	27%	10%	87	+0.5
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	40	41→45	51→55	43	.194/.269/.295	.102	.283	8	13	32%	8%	56	-1.3	.206/.272/.316	.110	.289	8	12	30%	7%	63	-0.9	.179/.267/.290	.111	.261	11	19	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Riley Unroe 2018 · AA	22	40→47	37→45	46→55	44	.192/.258/.257	.065	.276	4	12	30%	8%	41	-2.3	.204/.270/.291	.087	.291	7	12	30%	8%	55	-1.4	.221/.306/.342	.121	.297	13	26	28%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Rubendy Jaquez 2021 · A	22	42→38	40	54→55	42	.207/.258/.296	.089	.274	7	18	27%	6%	50	-1.7	.205/.250/.282	.077	.274	4	18	25%	5%	43	-2.2	.200/.242/.266	.066	.265	2	22	24%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	41→43	38→40	46→50	42	.199/.255/.270	.071	.276	6	14	29%	6%	43	-2.2	.204/.268/.291	.087	.288	7	11	30%	7%	54	-1.4	.203/.277/.299	.096	.295	7	14	31%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	44→45	40→45	55→50	50	.208/.290/.307	.098	.287	7	16	28%	10%	68	-0.5	.222/.281/.341	.119	.304	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.2	.227/.267/.356	.130	.303	16	8	30%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Karexon Sanchez 2010 · A	22	40→47	43→45	49→50	39	.201/.260/.314	.113	.285	11	12	32%	6%	57	-1.2	.212/.283/.322	.110	.300	10	11	31%	7%	69	-0.4	.218/.295/.324	.106	.304	10	11	30%	8%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)